Josh Smith Could Be NBA's Most Intriguing Free Agent During 2015 Offseason
In some ways, Josh Smith was the secondary playmaker the Houston Rockets desperately needed on their run to the Western Conference Finals. A 4-5 pick-and-roll-running puzzle piece who can create open corner threes as easily as he tosses breezy lobs to Dwight Howard, Smith’s offensive ceiling remains unanswerable against most defenses.
Daryl Morey, the team’s general manager, referred to Smith as “a lifesaver” in this recent feature by Grantland’s Jonathan Abrams: “I’m not sure what we’d do without him. He’s been critical to getting us where we are right now.”
Unfortunately, we don’t get to see Smith scrape his ceiling very often. His irksome shot selection and lackadaisical mannerisms make him his own worst enemy, and unwise decision-making is arguably his most known quality.
He's also awesome. When in the mood (key word being “when”), Smith turns sure layups into boomerangs off the backboard. He's a smart, athletic defensive presence, but he plays listless basketball too often.
Houston's game plan to stop the Golden State Warriors was to switch almost every screen, both on and off the ball. The strategy's success hinged, in part, on Smith's ability to stick with Stephen Curry on the perimeter.
There's no shame in getting torched by the best shooter in basketball history, but Smith lost track of his assignment too often, leaving Curry all alone—which is death.
Segueing to Smith's intriguing shot selection, the only player in this year’s playoffs to launch more wide-open threes (defined as there being no defender within six feet) than Smith is Curry. That’s not a compliment. Defenses were happy to leave Smith alone and let him use an offensive possession that could’ve been better spent with the ball in James Harden’s masterful hands.
This isn't a black-and-white issue. Players need to take open threes when defenses give them the option, but nothing is ever simple with Smith.
He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, entering the market in a peculiar situation. The Detroit Pistons bought Smith out with two years and $26 million left on his contract right before Christmas. At least five teams showed interest after he cleared waivers, but Smith selected Houston.
Aside from the obvious, Smith's situation is unique because the Pistons will be paying him no matter what happens. Normally, 29-year-old unrestricted free agents look to cash out on one last monster deal before age sets in and their production starts an inevitable decline, but Smith doesn’t need to go that route.
It all depends on his priorities, but if winning will bring happiness, Smith has plenty of options. Unless the Rockets somehow manage to land LaMarcus Aldridge or Kevin Love, Smith can always stay put. Or he can pick his spots, turn himself into an annual mercenary and bounce from team to team as the salary cap spikes over the next two summers.
In theory, he can be as flexible as he wants. With financial concerns out of the way, Smith can bring serious value to a championship contender that has limited means to improve (e.g., the Los Angeles Clippers). He can sign a one-year deal with the Miami Heat and offer frontcourt depth beside Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside and Josh McRoberts. He can take his talents to basketball utopia down in San Antonio or see if either 2015 Finals participant wants his two-way impact off its bench (both would sign him in a second).
Before coming to Houston, Smith was vilified as a grossly inefficient, increasingly stubborn headache. The numbers kept saying, “Please stop shooting,” and Smith answered with, “I think I’ll shoot some more.”
But Morey’s vision saved the day. Houston stripped away the worst parts of Smith’s game, most notably his patented offense-strangling mid-range jumper. Instead, he jacked up a ton of threes.
Some were in rhythm. Some were early in the shot clock and nonsensical.
But all in all, he became a modestly efficient threat. Smith’s three-point rate in this postseason nearly doubled his career average, while his free-throw rate didn’t suffer (.381, down from .388).
He wasn’t much of a post-up threat, but Smith proved useful in the pick-and-roll, both as a short-rolling screener and a playmaking ball-handler.
Still, judging his success is difficult.
On one hand, Smith shot 38 percent from behind the three-point line, up from a 28.5 percent career regular-season average. It’s a make-or-miss league, and fans should applaud Smith for, well, making shots the defense begged him to take. But on the other hand, all of it’s completely unsustainable. He shot 47.4 percent on pull-up threes, and while nearly all of his success happened early in the shot clock, Smith played with a debilitating recklessness Houston could have done without.
The Rockets were substantially better with him on the floor than off it during the regular season. That trend carried over into the playoffs in a way, but instead of outscoring opponents by a wide margin when he played and breaking even with Smith on the bench, Houston broke even when he played and got chopped up when he sat, according to NBA.com.
The Rockets' postseason offense was never more potent than it was with Smith on the court. His physical playmaking virtuosity clashed with brain-dead decision-making too often, but the Rockets relied on someone to handle the ball so Harden wouldn't have to on every possession.
Choosing Houston wound up being a stroke of genius. Whether he was aware or not, the Rockets needed Smith more than any other contender did. In Houston, he was able to dribble the ball, run pick-and-rolls below the foul line and generally exist as Harden's right-hand man.
On some nights, it worked; other nights were cataclysmic. But the experience rejuvenated his career and drummed up some genuine interest on the open market this summer. He could end up just about anywhere.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina is an NBA writer who lives in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
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