8 NBA Teams Whose Identities Are on the Line This Offseason
The NBA offseason is a time of change.
Some franchises only make minor moves, adding a bench player or two to get ready for their next title push. But others engage in sweeping alterations that fundamentally impact the identity of the organization. Those are the ones we're concerned with here, no matter what type of adjustments lead to the change.
Of course, the identities of these eight aren't guaranteed to be different when the 2015-16 season rolls around. Many certainly will be, but nothing is definite this time of year.
Teams could fail to find suitable trading partners, unexpectedly retain all of their notable free agents or engage in other sorts of personnel movement that merely renders them a different iteration of the 2014-15 model.
Anything is possible.
Chicago Bulls
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In 2010, Tom Thibodeau took over as a rookie head coach with the Chicago Bulls, and he immediately steered his squad to 62 wins. He earned Coach of the Year honors then moved through the Eastern Conference playoffs until running into the Miami Heat juggernaut, losing in five games rather than advancing to the NBA Finals.
Since then, his teams have dealt with plenty of injuries—to Derrick Rose, most notably—but they've also consistently won. Without any finishes in the lottery, he's put together a defensive machine and experienced so much success with a packing-the-paint strategy that other coaches have employed some of his methods.
Just take a gander at how his Bulls have ranked in offensive and defensive rating ever since he started pacing the sideline:
| 2010-11 | No. 11 | No. 1 |
| 2011-12 | No. 5 | No. 1 |
| 2012-13 | No. 23 | No. 6 |
| 2013-14 | No. 28 | No. 2 |
| 2014-15 | No. 10 | No. 11 |
That type of consistent success is tough to find. But by all indications, it appears the Bulls will be attempting to secure Thibodeau's replacement this offseason, and that has the potential to dramatically shift the identify of this hard-nosed franchise.
ESPN.com's Marc Stein reported this on Twitter: "More and more you hear Thibs admirers around NBA say they fear Bulls determined to let all three open jobs get filled and then let Thibs go."
When discord reaches that stage, the firing itself is all but a sure thing. The timing may be up in the air, but not the ultimate decision from the front office.
Dallas Mavericks
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For years, the Dallas Mavericks have been able to reload in free agency even if they don't hit on their first choices. And without a top-12 pick in the draft since 2000, the Mavs have instead relied on the notion that big-name players will want to join Dirk Nowitzki's squad and play for a winning organization.
But that might be tough this offseason, as the German 7-footer declined during the 2014-15 campaign and may not be capable anymore of serving as the centerpiece of a championship-caliber squad. And the Mavs don't have any other players who can fill that role.
What do they have? Lots of free agents and potential free agents.
J.J. Barea, Tyson Chandler, Richard Jefferson, Rajon Rondo, Greg Smith, Amar'e Stoudemire and Charlie Villanueva are all hitting the market in unrestricted fashion this summer, while Bernard James is a restricted free agent. Al-Farouq Aminu, Monta Ellis and Raymond Felton all have player options.
Potentially, the Mavericks could go into the 2015 offseason with only four players currently on the active roster:
- Dirk Nowitzki, who's on the decline.
- Chandler Parsons, who's coming off season-ending surgery and a fairly disappointing campaign.
- Devin Harris, who has started three games since coming to Dallas two offseasons ago.
- Dwight Powell, who played a grand total of 236 minutes during his rookie go-round.
That's not exactly a strong core, and the Mavericks will have a tough recruiting pitch to sell during the hottest months of the year.
Sure, they could do what they've done so many times before: reload and remain right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff push for another season. But this time, that's going to be a difficult task, and it may well prove to be an impossible one.
Remember, this franchise has missed the playoffs only once (2012-13) since the 2000, and that was a fluky year. After all, it came during the one season in which surgery dampened Nowitzki's efforts, limiting him to just 47 starts and 53 total appearances.
Denver Nuggets
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The identity of this franchise is already changing.
Per Mark Kiszla of the Denver Post, Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried are no longer viewed as centerpieces, and they're being replaced by two other incumbents on the roster:
"After requiring nearly two years to recover from a knee surgery that Danilo Gallinari believes was initially botched, the 26-year-old forward finally regained his form late last season and appears now to be a centerpiece in the Nuggets' rebuilding efforts, as is center Jusuf Nurkic, recently named one of the league's 10 best rookies.
While [Nuggets president Josh] Kroenke steadfastly refuses to offer specific names when talking about plans to aggressively retool the roster prior to opening night of the next NBA season, it's realistic to expect point guard Ty Lawson or forward Kenneth Faried or both to be part of trade discussions prior to the June 25 draft.
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The Denver Nuggets didn't exactly have an identity in 2014-15, even though the team's media day made it clear that they entered the season dreaming of a playoff appearance during what was widely viewed as a rebuilding campaign.
The Nuggets were a collection of impressive talents who just didn't work together, and that's a recipe for disaster—especially when coached by someone who doesn't fit in with the players. It shouldn't be surprising that during the 23 games in which Melvin Hunt served as the interim head coach, the Nuggets were much closer to .500 basketball and had even more impressive underlying metrics than when Brian Shaw was at the helm.
Now, Denver is apparently prepared to deal some of the long-standing faces of the franchise in an effort to reach a higher ceiling. First, it'll have to figure out what kind of basketball it wants to play, and that's not always an easy task.
Los Angeles Clippers
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One player looms over the Los Angeles Clippers.
"I mean I've obviously been here seven years, and the past two have been great," DeAndre Jordan told USA Today's Sam Amick in a podcast (h/t Kurt Helin of Pro Basketball Talk). "(Clippers head coach Doc Rivers) has been my biggest supporter and the best coach I've ever had. The team is great. The guys are great. We have great camaraderie. But the free agency process is definitely going to be a fun one."
If Jordan goes elsewhere, the Clippers are going to be in a world of trouble. Plan B, as Bleacher Report's Fred Katz details, is far less intriguing and could involve making pitches to the Omer Asiks and Timofey Mozgovs of the world.
Even if Jordan's defensive prowess is a bit oversold, as evidenced by his third-place finish in this year's Defensive Player of the Year voting, he's still incredibly impactful for the Clippers. These splits just about say it all, and they don't even factor in the lack of replacements should he depart:
| Regular Season | 11.8 | -3.6 | 15.4 |
| Playoffs | 4.2 | -5.1 | 9.3 |
My FATS model (based on historical comparisons and explained in full here) tells a similar story.
During the regular season, the Clippers played like a 41.9-win team when Jordan was on the bench. But when he was on the floor, the Clippers morphed into a 55.3-win juggernaut. For perspective, that's the difference between finishing out of the playoffs and earning the fourth-best record in this season's loaded Western Conference.
Lose Jordan, and the identity of this franchise changes completely. And not in a good way.
Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks
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Two historically proud franchises—though one obviously has more success to brag about. Two similar situations.
Both the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks have one superstar to build around, even if there is much debate about whether either can anchor a title run. Kobe Bryant's shortcoming is age and declining health/effectiveness, while Carmelo Anthony's is simply his playing style.
Nonetheless, each organization will attempt to prove doubters wrong this offseason by nailing a top-four draft pick and then using its exorbitant amount of cap space to expedite a rebuild.
Any big name in the free-agent pool will likely at least take a meeting with both the Lakers and the Knicks regardless of whether he plans on signing elsewhere. Due to rosters that featured plenty of expiring contracts during the 2014-15 campaign, both teams have a lot of money to spend—and can still rely on the appeal of a major market.
But there are also inherent risks here.
I'm not referring to potential failures in free-agency pursuits, as one more season near the bottom of the NBA standings wouldn't actually be the worst thing in the world for either franchise. Instead, it would simply provide the opportunity for another top-notch prospect to build around come 2016.
The worst outcome would be overspending for the sake of pursuing the last playoff berth in either conference. Unless you can do so with a plethora of one-year deals, moving into the realm of mediocrity doesn't do anything but doom the long-term success of a rebuild since the cap will be rising in coming years.
Portland Trail Blazers
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The Portland Trail Blazers have consistently boasted one of the league's best starting fives over the last few years, but that could all change if a few pieces leave Rip City this offseason.
Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum are still under contract, but the other three members of the starting quintet are potential flight risks.
Robin Lopez will be intriguing for every team in need of a defensive center. Coming off a torn Achilles, Wesley Matthews will still receive interest given his ability to knock down three-pointers and settle in on the defensive end. And the best of the three, LaMarcus Aldridge, is going to have suitors all summer.
"Sources insist—at, yes, this early juncture—that San Antonio sits near or at the top of Aldridge's list...unless the Cleveland Cavaliers were to lose Kevin Love and then somehow manufacture a way to sign-and-trade for him. The Knicks and Lakers, of course, also intend to enter the bidding," per ESPN.com's Marc Stein, who also mentioned the Dallas Mavericks as a possible destination.
The Blazers are in for a long summer filled with swirling rumors and plenty of uncertainty.
Either they'll retain their incumbent starters and continue relying on internal development and small-scale bench signings, or they'll be forced to start fresh while watching a former first-string player ply his trade elsewhere.
There's no in between.
San Antonio Spurs
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For nearly two decades, the San Antonio Spurs have belonged to Tim Duncan. He's been a consistent presence in the paint, racking up titles and plenty of accolades no matter who suits up alongside him. It's usually been Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili over the last decade, but there have been plenty of other standouts as well.
Now, this could change.
Duncan and Ginobili both have expiring contracts, and no one knows what they'll end up doing. Retirement could come into play for one or both, but they could also return for another shot at glory. Based on Duncan's play throughout the Spurs' first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers, it sure seems like he could stick around for another 10 years.
No matter how slim the chances may be, the mere threat of losing one of the all-time greats certainly means the identity of this franchise is up in the air. And it'll change regardless.
After spending much of the 2014-15 campaign's second half looking like one of the Association's top 10 players, Kawhi Leonard is ready to take over. More so than ever before, this is becoming the San Diego State product's team, and Gregg Popovich is slowly letting him break free of the ball-sharing system that has been a staple in San Antonio for so many years.
They'll wear the same jerseys. They'll feature many of the same players. But even if Duncan and Ginobili are back on the roster, the Spurs won't be the same team.
And we haven't even mentioned the possibility of the team signing a new star—LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol, for example.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @fromal09.
