Unfortunate Lottery Luck Could Be Blessing in Disguise for NY Knicks
As the only NBA team to go backwards in the draft lottery, the New York Knicks already have their fans fretting their most crucial offseason in recent memory.
Ending with the second-worst record and receiving the fourth overall pick next month isn't the most equitable scenario, but with several franchise-altering prospects available with the first few selections, Phil Jackson's front office will have a number of directions to go.
Top big men Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns will likely be off the board. And with a mostly barren roster, New York must simply search for the best talent available. Luckily, that best-available talent will likely come at a convenient position for New York.
Jackson's goal this offseason, at 69 years old and a year removed from re-signing Carmelo Anthony through his age-34 season, will likely be to maximize New York's chances over the next few years. Towns and Okafor are clear-cut top picks, but with Anthony potentially spending more time at the power forward as his career progresses, there would be cons to drafting a big man and impeding on Anthony's offensive stomping ground.
Save for a storybook run from Jeremy Lin in 2012, the Knicks haven't found consistent production from any starting point guard in a decade. D'Angelo Russell of Ohio State and Emmanuel Mudiay (hailing from the Chinese Basketball Association) figure to be the next players chosen after the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers make their picks. Regardless of which player is there for the Knicks' taking at No. 4, taking a point guard could be exactly what the team needs.
Historically, Anthony's teams have been at their best when pairing the star scorer with a capable point guard. As prolific as he may be, 'Melo tends to impede offensive flow, given the isolation-heavy nature of his attack. In lineups with, say, Raymond Felton or Toney Douglas, the Knicks have witnessed Anthony's lack of trust in the team's point man, often resulting in stagnation and poor shot selection.
With Chauncey Billups, the Denver Nuggets marched to the Western Conference Finals in 2009, falling two wins shy of a Finals berth. With Jason Kidd logging major minutes for the 2012-13 Knicks, Anthony saw his most efficient season in five years—in terms of true shooting percentage—as New York won 54 games as the East's No. 2 seed.
Experience is a common thread between Anthony's most successful point guards, which neither Russell nor Mudiay can provide. But both have the potential to be the most skilled all-around maestros 'Melo has ever played beside. Major production at the point would certainly garner Anthony's attention, and in turn, his respect.
Many predictions see Russell going third overall to the Philadelphia 76ers, which leaves Mudiay as a potential Knick at No. 4. The 6'5", 200-pounder has displayed a great ability to make reads out of the pick-and-roll and is able to distribute and score effectively while rolling toward the basket.
The Wall Street Journal's Chris Herring further outlined Mudiay's potential fit with the Knicks:
"Mudiay’s size helps make him both a great rebounder and a good finisher around the basket, particularly with his strong hand on the right side of the floor. It also helps him get to the foul line, a key issue for the Knicks, who ranked last in the NBA in free-throw rate this season.
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Mudiay's offensive style would lend itself to several drive-and-kick opportunities every game. At 31 years of age next season, occasionally operating on the receiving end of those kickout passes should be able to prolong Anthony's career. On USA national teams, he's already seen tremendous success in this role, once scoring 37 points in 14 minutes against Nigeria, drilling 10 of 12 three-pointers.
There are some concerns about the 19-year-old, however. His jump shot is suspect—especially in a league predicated on spacing along the perimeter—with his three-point percentage clocking in at 34.1 percent in China last season. His athleticism and length should help him develop into a solid defender, but ball-watching and commitment have been issues on that end thus far.
Still, with more than $25 million in projected cap space this summer, New York shouldn't have trouble patching up roster holes through free agency.
Aside from a pure basketball standpoint, New York brings its own set of challenges when it comes to the draft. How a player will transition to pro play after going first or second overall is always an unknown. The league is seeing its most prominent case of this in years with Anthony Bennett, who went first overall in 2013. In Andrea Bargnani, the Knicks have witnessed how an early selection can ruin an entire career.
In the days leading up to the lottery, B/R's Howard Beck outlined exactly what it means to be the draft's top pick:
"The No. 1 pick is measured against every player drafted behind him, and against every other No. 1 in NBA history. A No. 1 can have a perfectly productive career and still be deemed a "bust" if he fails to reach stardom. When you're drafted No. 1, you are No. 1 forever—and forever judged through that prism.
The label fueled [Derrick] Rose and John Wall, dogged Andrew Bogut and crushed Kwame Brown. LeBron James delivered instantly on his promise. Dwight Howard took a few years to get there. Andrea Bargnani never did.
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It's expected for a fanbase to be crushed after seeing that envelope open with another team's logo inside. But, especially in the New York market, it's important to keep a level head.
Okafor, a potential target at the No. 2 pick, averaged just 10.8 points and 6.3 rebounds over the final four games of the NCAA tournament—the highest-level games of his collegiate career, and his most recent performances to date. His skills in the post are undeniable, but even the brightest prospects are liable to struggle out of the gate. In front of the Madison Square Garden fans, it could be crushing.
At No. 4, and in Mudiay's case, as a relative unknown, this is bound to be less of a factor.
Knicks fans have been dreaming of a first overall selection for the better part of six months, and their prayers went unanswered during last week's drawing. But the fourth selection brings about a different set of opportunities—ones that can benefit the franchise in 2016 and beyond.
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