5 Keys for Houston Rockets to Get off the Mat Against Golden State Warriors
During the Houston Rockets first two games against the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, they put up a great fight, even if they lost. In Game 3 on Saturday, though, the Warriors figuratively went WWE on the Rockets.
It was brutal.
Now Houston is on the mat and seconds away from being counted out.
At this point, any discussion of winning the series is a daydream. The Warriors have beaten the Rockets seven times in seven tries this year. For the Rockets to win would be historically unprecedented.
However, they can get off the mat and fight back if they do the following things.
5. Help the Help
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Are the Rockets switching too much on the pick-and-roll, and was their defense's decimation in Game 3 a result of being overly infatuated with the scheme? Not exactly.
Dylan Murphy of Bleacher Report wrote after Game 1:
"A good pick-and-roll creates breathing space for the ball-handler, but Houston negated this advantage by immediately switching or pressuring. The switches were particularly effective because they encouraged Curry's vice: over-dribbling against perceived mismatches.
Despite facing switches all game and finding himself matched up against Houston's bigs—most frequently Clint Capela and Josh Smith—Curry only scored two baskets in isolation-switch scenarios.
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But then Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle wrote following Game 3:
"With the Rockets so determined to send extra help against (Curry) on the perimeter, mixing in traps with their switches, they were terribly out of position inside. The Warriors spread the court, cut hard and moved the ball, with centers Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli combining for 22 points on 10 of 14 shooting.
Even more damaging, the Warriors punished the Rockets on the offensive glass. They turned 17 offensive rebounds into 30 second-chance points.
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In other words, the problem isn’t so much the switching as it is the Rockets aren’t helping the help.
Bogut scored 10 of his 12 points in the first quarter, and every one of them involved Dwight Howard assisting on Steph Curry in a pick-and-roll defense. At one moment, after Bogut delivered an uncontested dunk, Howard looked over at Terrence Jones and mouthed the words, “Come on, man!” His frustration over a lack of help was pretty clear.
If he is switching off to pick up the defense on Curry, someone has to assume guardianship of the paint.
4. Hit the Open Shots
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Based on NBA.com's player-tracking box score, the Rockets were an abysmal 9-of-35 on uncontested shots. That’s only 25.7 percent, which doesn’t even make a good batting average. They were actually better on contested shots at 19-of 48.
In addition to being horrible on open shots, they were even worse from three-point range. Josh Smith was 3-of-5 from deep. The rest of the team combined was just 2-of-20. When Smith is making more than the rest of the team, that’s a really bad sign.
The Warriors are a better team. There is no way that Houston can beat them if it’s not playing its best possible game—and missing nearly three-quarters of its uncontested shots isn’t even good enough to be a bad team.
3. Crash the Boards
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There was a massive disparity in rebounds in Game 3. The Warriors collected 60 misses to Houston’s 39. And a lot of that has to do with something as simple as effort.
The Warriors were in position to contest for roughly 95 rebounds, while the Rockets scrapped for about 79 of them.
(The numbers, which come from “rebound chances” are exact, per the player-tracking box score. But I’m allowing for the possibility that more than one player from a team can be in position for a particular rebound chance.)
Furthermore, Howard accounted for 25 of those 79 chances by himself. The rest of the team needs to fight harder to get into position and win rebounding battles.
One of the chief repercussions of the disparity was the Warriors enjoyed a 30-13 advantage in second-chance points.
The Warriors are lethal enough on offense as it is without giving up extra shots.
2. The Rest of the Team Needs to Show Up
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James Harden was spectacular in the first two games. In Game 3, he was far from it. He scored just 17 points on 16 shots, adding only four assists and three rebounds. It’s hard to put the blame for that on him, though.
Every time he touched the ball, the Warriors enveloped him. He was constantly facing double-teams and traps. Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala all took turns guarding him. Curry helped.
Harden tried to get assists but to little avail. As previously mentioned, everyone was missing the wide-open shots he was creating. He led the team in passes with 52.
Howard played well enough, especially in the first half. He scored 14 points on 60 percent shooting.
However, for the most part, the rest of the team has been absent all series long.
Per Basketball-Reference.com, Harden is the only Rocket averaging over 15 points for the series. He is also the only one who has played 30 minutes and has a higher offensive rating than defensive rating.
Houston’s shooters have virtually disappeared. Trevor Ariza has an effective field-goal percentage of 61.5 percent, but he's only scoring 11.3 points per game. Smith’s is 41.5 percent. Jason Terry’s is 39.1 percent. Jones’ is 35.7 percent. And Corey Brewer is 33.3 percent.
Bench scoring should be a Rockets advantage, yet the Warriors’ second unit is outscoring them, 27.7 to 21.3.
One man can only do so much, even Harden.
1. Bring Back the Fight
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Game 3 of the conference finals was reminiscent of Game 4 of the semifinals. In that contest, the Rockets were soundly whooped by the Los Angeles Clippers, 128-95. And it was at that time, many of Houston's obituaries for the season were initially written.
It wasn’t just that Houston lost to L.A. or that there was the rather egregious score differential. It was the impression the Rockets had given up that left many thinking they weren’t far from a fishing vacation.
However, starting with the next game, they came back and started swinging. By halftime of Game 5, they had built a 15-point lead, and they never looked back. In Game 6, the Clippers looked like they were going to run away with the win, building a double-digit lead heading into the final frame.
But Houston fought again, outscoring L.A. 40-15 in the fourth quarter to steal away the win.
Then, in Game 7, it was the Clippers who looked like they quit.
The Rockets have shown they have steely resolve. They did not display that in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. Rockets coach Kevin McHale seemed to share that notion, per Calvin Watkins of ESPN.com.
"I mean, we’re down 2-0, we had two tight games [in Oakland], and I was surprised that we didn’t come out with more. I thought we’d come out with a little more juice, and it seemed like things got a little tight defensively. They tightened it up, we couldn’t make some shots and then we just—they drove us all night long. They got the ball and just attacked our paint.
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It’s going to take a miracle for the Rockets to win this series. It will be impossible for them to do it in Game 4. However, it isn’t implausible they could win the game. And, as they’ve shown before, winning the next game in front of them is how miracles get accomplished.
To do that, they’ll need to find that resolve again.
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