Re-Evaluating the Washington Nationals' Top Draft Picks from the Past Decade
For a team that's only been in the business of drafting players for 10 years, the Washington Nationals are exceptional at it.
The Nationals found franchise cornerstones Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon with first-round selections and had two once-in-a-generation prospects, Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, fall into their laps both years they had the No. 1 overall pick.
Aside from Lucas Giolito, Jake Johansen and Erick Fedde—who all have yet to make their major league debuts—only one of Washington's top selections from the team's first 10 years finds himself out of the majors.
That draft acumen earned the Nationals the top spot when Jesse Spector of Sporting News ranked each MLB team based on its picks from the last decade.
Here, we'll re-evaluate each player Washington has ever selected with its first draft pick and assign them letter grades with perfect 20/20 hindsight. The grading criteria include the success each player has found so far, who the Nationals could have taken instead and remaining potential.
2005 No. 4 Overall: Ryan Zimmerman
1 of 10
Career Stats: 1,242 GP, 1,366 H, 189 HR, 742 RBI, .284 AVG, .823 OPS
Ryan Zimmerman has been a part of the Nationals' identity for as long as they've existed.
In eight of Washington's first 10 seasons, Zimmerman has finished in the top five on the team in both hits and RBI. And he's gone about it in the same unassuming fashion that made Derek Jeter a religious figure in New York.
A one-time Gold Glover and twice a Silver Slugger award winner, Zimmerman has earned his No. 4 overall selection. But some of the names that came after him in the draft can give him a run for his money.
The picks that closely followed Zimmerman's selection included Ryan Braun at No. 5, Troy Tulowitzki at No. 6 and Andrew McCutchen at No. 11. With the least disrespect to Ryan Zimmerman possible, I think Washington would be happy with either of the latter two and maybe even Braun depending on what side of the cheating and lying debate you land on.
Zimmerman is in the twilight years of his career now that his degenerative shoulder has removed him from his longtime home at third base, but he still has some gas in the tank. The most recent of his 10 career walk-off home runs is evidence of that.
Grade: A-
2006 No. 15 Overall: Chris Marrero
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Career Stats: 39 GP, 29 H, 0 HR, 11 RBI, .232 AVG, .528 OPS
The Nationals got their biggest swing and miss out of the way early when they used their 2006 first-round selection on Chris Marrero.
With a 2008 broken leg partially to blame, the former top prospect didn't make his major league debut until 2011. He would only go on to play 39 games for Washington across the 2011 and 2013 seasons before he was let go, later signing a minor league deal with the Orioles.
Marrero's selection has all the qualifications of a bust, but the one grade-booster for the pick is the crop of players chosen after him in the first round. More involved baseball fans will recognize the Hank Congers and Chris Tillmans of the world, but the closest thing to a household name in the rest of the first round is Joba Chamberlain.
These days, Marrero is toiling in relative obscurity with the unaffiliated Somerset Patriots. Although he's hitting a solid .321 with five homers through 27 games this season, the 26-year-old's return to the majors seems incredibly unlikely.
Grade: D
2007 No. 6 Overall: Ross Detwiler
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Career Stats: 20-37, 139 GP, 76 GS, 307 SO, 1 SV, 1.41 WHIP, 4.03 ERA
The pride of Missouri State University, Ross Detwiler made his major league debut less than three months after Washington used the No. 6 overall pick on him in 2007. But despite his accelerated trip through the minors, Detwiler never completely established a role for himself with the Nationals.
The uncertainty came to a head in Detwiler's final two seasons with Washington. In 2013, he started all 13 games he played in. The following year, he appeared in 47 games out of the bullpen without earning a single start due to a loaded Nats rotation.
Detwiler isn't a bust by any stretch, but seeing Madison Bumgarner's name four picks later is cringeworthy. The rest of the first round included the likes of Jason Heyward and Josh Donaldson, but the pitcher-to-pitcher comparison is more relevant.
Detwiler finds himself on the 15-day DL currently, but he's finally a full-time starter following an offseason trade to the Rangers. Before going down with shoulder inflammation, he started seven games for Texas to open 2015.
Grade: C+
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2008 No. 9 Overall: Aaron Crow
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Career Stats: 20-11, 254 GP, 0 GS, 208 SO, 6 SV, 1.32 WHIP, 3.43 ERA
The Nationals and Aaron Crow weren't drinking the same Kool-Aid after Washington picked him at No. 9 overall in 2008, so the righty never signed and ended up starting his pro career in the Royals organization a year later.
But Crow gave Kansas City four solid years of major league service after the team took him at No. 12 overall in the 2009 draft. His time as a Royal even included an All-Star game selection in 2011, and he finished that year with a 2.76 ERA in 62.0 innings of work.
After the Nats picked Crow in 2008, the rest of the first round didn't include a litany of superstars Washington could have taken. But Gerritt Cole at No. 28 and Lance Lynn at No. 39 can be qualified as missed opportunities.
Crow became a Marlin this offseason via a trade, but he has yet to suit up for the Fish. The 28-year-old will miss the 2015 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery this April.
The surgery is by no means a death sentence for a player's career these days, but he'll turn 30 at the end of next season. So his days as a serviceable reliever in the majors could be numbered.
Grade: C
2009 No. 1 Overall: Stephen Strasburg
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Career Stats: 46-35, 118 GP, 118 GS, 791 SO, 0 SV, 1.13 WHIP, 3.24 ERA
When the Nationals ended up with the No. 1 overall pick in 2009, Stephen Strasburg was really the only option.
After going undrafted out of high school, Strasburg became the consensus top pick out of San Diego State in 2009 "by hitting 101 mph on a radar gun" and "by striking out 23 batters in a game," among other things listed by ESPN's Kirk Kenney at the time.
Strasburg hasn't been the unhittable flamethrowing cyborg he was supposed to be, but his career thus far has been well above average. He was the ace of a dominant Nationals staff for three years before Max Scherzer came to town. He also shared the NL lead for strikeouts just last season.
That 2009 draft did include Mike Trout, but it would be completely unfair to criticize the Nationals on any level for taking Strasburg with the No. 1 pick. Trout wasn't even the first outfielder the Angels chose. They went with Randal Grichuck with the first of their back-to-back first-round picks.
As for Strasburg's future, he's only 26 and despite a ghastly 6.50 ERA through nine starts this season, his potential is still massive.
Grade: A
2010 No. 1 Overall: Bryce Harper
6 of 10
Career Stats: 401 GP, 405 H, 71 HR, 190 RBI, .278 AVG, .856 OPS
Every time Bryce Harper's hair cascades through the summer air following another home run, the Nationals are reminded how lucky they were to have the No. 1 overall pick for a second consecutive year in 2010.
For most of Harper's young career, and much like his teammate Stephen Strasburg, he's been a victim of his own name and the ludicrious set of expectations it carries. Harper became the default pick for MLB's most overrated player after putting up the numbers of a mere mortal for each of his first three seasons, averaging .272 at the plate from 2012-2014.
But this season, the 22-year-old leads the NL in home runs, RBI, OBP, slugging, OPS and walks through Washington's first 44 games.
Harper, like Strasburg, was a mandatory selection for whoever had the top pick. Even with Mets ace Matt Harvey going six picks later, Washington would take Harper over any 2010 draftee even with the benefit of hindsight.
Harper has still never faced a pitcher younger than him at the major league level. And at this rate an MVP trophy is far from out of the question, this season or any in the next decade.
Grade: A
2011 No. 6 Overall: Anthony Rendon
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Career Stats: 251 GP, 269 H, 28 HR, 118 RBI, .279 AVG, .788 OPS
Anthony Rendon exceeded expectations in his first two big-league seasons, even those of a top-10 pick.
A Silver Slugger award and a fifth-place finish in NL MVP voting capped off Rendon's second MLB season in 2014, a year in which he led the league in runs scored.
2011 is too recent for us to have any players from that year's draft completely figured out, but the likes of Javier Baez, George Springer, Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray and Kolten Wong were all taken after Rendon in the first round. When it's all said and done, Rendon could rank anywhere from first to last on that list of names.
Despite a troubling and exhaustive stint on the DL to start 2015, Rendon is hugely important to Washington's future. He's the reincarnation of Ryan Zimmerman with Ryan Zimmerman still on the team to impart his Ryan Zimmerman ways.
Grade: A
2012 No. 16 Overall: Lucas Giolito
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Career Stats (Minors): 13-5, 35 GP, 35 GS, 175 SO, 0 SV, 1.06 WHIP, 2.45 ERA
With his 2012 Tommy John surgery in the rear view, Lucas Giolito has become the top pitching prospect in all of baseball according to both MLB.com and Baseball America.
Giolito cracked 100 mph in high school and he's still blowing by hitters, throwing 63 of his 87 pitches for strikes in his latest outing for the Single-A Potomac Nationals, via MASN's Byron Kerr.
The most notable player selected after Giolito in 2012 is the Cardinals' Michael Wacha, who leads the majors in wins with a 7-0 record in 2015. But it's not absurd to suggest Giolito could be even better than Wacha when his time comes.
Giolito is a huge luxury for the Nationals, giving them the flexibility to field trade offers for their big-name pitchers like Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, knowing they have a potential superstar coming down the pipe.
Grade: A
2013 No. 68 Overall: Jake Johansen
9 of 10Career Stats (Minors): 7-12, 50 GP, 30 GS, 170 SO, 1 SV, 1.55 WHIP, 4.17 ERA
Washington didn't have a first-round selection in 2013. The first pick at which the Nats were on the clock was No. 68 overall, where they took Jake Johansen.
In his two seasons with the organization, Single-A is the highest level Johansen has reached. But MLB.com does rank the 24-year-old as Washington's No. 18 prospect.
Johansen was the last pick in the second round, so reviewing who went after him would be a pointless exercise. But his career trajectory is about on track at this stage considering where he was chosen.
Grade: B
2014 No. 18 Overall: Erick Fedde
10 of 10
*No stats available. Fedde has yet to play a professional game while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The Nationals pretty much take on injured pitchers for sport, turning Washington into somewhat of a safe haven for those with Tommy John surgery in their history.
The team stayed true to form in 2014, when it took Erick Fedde in the first round just two days after he underwent the most infamous procedure in baseball.
"We felt the risk of him rehabbing and coming back to pre-injury form was worth the draft pick,” general manager Mike Rizzo said via The Washington Post's James Wagner.
Any comparison between Fedde and the rest of his draft class would be pure speculation. Only one player in the first round has made his MLB debut, and no one taken after Fedde has reached the majors yet.
Without so much as a minor league inning under his belt, nothing about Fedde is clear at this point. But apparently he has the best slider his high school teammate, Bryce Harper, has ever seen.
Grade: B-
*All stats courtesy of MLB.com
Danny Garrison is a Washington Nationals Featured Columnist on Bleacher Report. He's on Twitter @DannyLGarrison and he was 11 years old when Ryan Zimmerman was drafted.
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