Best Potential Trade Scenarios for New York Knicks No. 4 Pick in 2015 NBA Draft
Still reeling from their misfortune at the NBA draft lottery, the New York Knicks are in a uniquely complicated position that could compel them to trade their No. 4 pick.
Bailing on top-five prospects just to brighten the immediate picture is oft-considered downright reckless in its brazen disregard for the long-term outlook—unless, of course, a franchise has just cause for weighing other options.
Although team president Phil Jackson has emphasized the importance of rebuilding around homegrown talent, the Knicks play home to an aging superstar in Carmelo Anthony. Their window to win with him is not forever, and they wouldn't have re-signed him last summer if the plan was to start over completely.
Thus, we have to at least consider the prospect of New York trading its No. 4 pick, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski—the actual player selected since, by rule, the Knicks cannot deal two first-rounders in consecutive drafts—no matter how shortsighted such action seems.
And because shipping out top-five talent poses tremendous risk, potential scenarios will be presented with that peril in mind. All packages need to be ambitious, otherwise the Knicks have no reason to jettison a possible cornerstone.
Each deal will include specific players who could/should fall to No. 4, because again, we're assuming these blockbusters go down after names are called. They'll also take into account the Knicks' impending cap space, which allows for them to absorb bigger deals without sending as much salary back in return.
The trades in question will be ranked in order of curb appeal to New York. The goal is to be as realistic as possible, so proposed scenarios must cater to the likelihood of other parties rebuffing any overtures. But, in the end, it's the Knicks that matter most.
If they're going to bet their future on the present, the jackpot has to be ginormous.
5. Ben McLeMore to the Big Apple
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New York Get: SG Ben McLemore and C Willie Cauley-Stein (No. 6 Pick)
Sacramento Kings Get: PG Emmanuel Mudiay
If the Knicks do end up trading their draft pick, general manager Steve Mills told reporters it most likely wouldn't be as part of a deal that has them moving down the board, according to NJ Advance Media's Nick Powell. And yet, if they're interested in a prospect who's fated to slip outside the top five, it behooves them to explore the benefits of doing just that.
Take Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein. Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman has the 7-footer going sixth to the Kings in his latest mock draft. The Knicks, meanwhile, are desperate for interior talent by their own admission.
“That’s the area we want to get good at,’’ Jackson said in April, per the New York Post's Marc Berman. “The reason why I mentioned that bigs are our priority in the draft is because the defense has to be anchored by stopping the ball and having an intimidating force in the lane.”
Cauley-Stein is easily one of the best defensive players in his class. He averaged 1.7 blocks per game during his final season at Kentucky and saw more playing time than potential No. 1 pick Karl-Anthony Towns.
Assuming Jahlil Okafor and Towns are scooped up in the top three, Cauley-Stein is the Knicks' next-best option to plug the middle. And if they can add a sharper-shooter-in-the-making like McLemore as the result of coveting someone projected to fall outside the top five, there shouldn't be any thinking involved.
McLemore is a top-five pick himself and expendable insofar as the Kings believe Nik Stauskas belongs in the NBA. Head coach George Karl preaches offensive pace, and Mudiay is explosive, quick and gives Sacramento a nice two-headed point guard monster alongside Darren Collison.
Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell poses similar value to the Kings if he falls to No. 4. But as a floor general who flourishes off the ball, he's the perfect option to fill the Knicks' need at point guard.
This deal, then, is contingent upon all three of Okafor, Russell and Towns going in the top three.
4. Khris Middleton and Friends Sport Orange and Blue
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New York Knicks Get: F/C John Henson, G/F Khris Middleton (sign-and-trade) and Tyus Jones (No. 17 pick)
Milwaukee Bucks Get: SF Justise Winslow
Credit Bleacher Report Associate NBA Editor Joel Cordes for this humdinger.
Signing and trading restricted free agents like Middleton is tricky. He cannot be dealt once he inks an offer sheet, so this would have to be something the Knicks and Bucks negotiate in advance of him putting pen to paper on another contract.
Losing Middleton isn't an ideal development for the Bucks. He led the team in win shares during the regular season and, at 6'7", can play and defend shooting guard, small forward or power forward.
At the same time, Middleton is speeding toward a massive payday. If the still-rebuilding Bucks aren't interested in footing a lofty bill this early in their development, they'd be smart to cash in on his departure.
Winslow is cheaper and fits with what they're assembling. He's quick, athletic and can defend multiple positions. Their top-two defense wouldn't miss a beat with him replacing Middleton in the rotation.
And since that top-two defense isn't founded upon rim protection, Milwaukee can stomach the loss of Henson. Head coach Jason Kidd has a soft spot for Zaza Pachulia, and moving Middleton opens the door for the Bucks to sign Brook Lopez, whom they reportedly covet, according to Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times.
Breaking their top-four pick into three pieces would make a ton of sense for the Knicks. Middleton's positional versatility and off-ball shooting make him a solid complement to Anthony, and Duke's Jones gives them a legitimate point guard prospect to evaluate alongside Langston Galloway.
Henson is the rim protector the Knicks don't yet have and aren't close to getting after dropping to fourth in the lottery. They weren't especially bad at defending within six feet of the hoop this past season, but that's only because their porous perimeter defense invited volume three-point shooting.
Slotting Henson at the 5 lets the Knicks funnel more ball-handlers and shooters into the paint. The 24-year-old has long arms that help him contest jumpers, and the Chicago Bulls shot just 41.6 percent inside six feet of the basket with him on their case in the first round of the playoffs.
New York has the financial plasticity to absorb Middleton's new contract without sending Milwaukee anything else. But if the Bucks aren't sold on Jerryd Bayless and Michael Carter-Williams running point, they can take on Jose Calderon's expiring deal as affordable insurance.
3. Ty Lawson and Carmelo Anthony Together Again
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New York Knicks Get: SF Wilson Chandler and PG Ty Lawson
Denver Nuggets Get: PG Jose Calderon and PG Emmanuel Mudiay
Ty Lawson was readily available at the trade deadline, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe, so he's not about to become untouchable over the offseason. He immediately fills one of the Knicks' biggest needs, and despite being undersized, he slithers in and out of the paint at his own behest.
There would admittedly be concerns about Lawson's fit within the triangle. The Knicks system places a premium on off-ball shooting, and Lawson put in just 35.6 percent of his spot-up opportunities this past season. Listed at 5'11", he won't do New York any defensive favors either.
But Lawson did drain a respectable number of his catch-and-shoot treys (34.5 percent), and talent tends to figure things out. His $12.4 million salary next season doesn't break the bank and still leaves the Knicks with $10 million to $15 million (or more) in cap space after factoring in Calderon's departure.
Bringing in Chandler gives them additional size and athleticism on the wing. He can shimmy between the small forward and power forward slots with Anthony and is someone they can evaluate ahead of free agency in 2016.
Lawson is still a good fit with the Nuggets as they look to continue pushing the pace. But it's hard not to see the potential of Mudiay under the run-and-gun stylings of Melvin Hunt or Mike D'Antoni, the two finalists for Denver's head coaching vacancy, according to the Denver Post's Mark Kiszla.
That the Nuggets are forfeiting Chandler instead of their own first-rounder (No. 7) is huge. Duke's Justise Winslow could still be available when they're on the clock, and he projects as a fine two-way building block who thrives on or off the ball.
Toss him beside Kenneth Faried and Mudiay, and the Nuggets, while pinned to the early stages of a reset, are a transition highlight reel waiting to happen.
2. The Joel Embiid Dice Roll
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New York Knicks Get: C Joel Embiid
Philadelphia 76ers: Justise Winslow
Why trade down when, in theory, you can trade up?
Joel Embiid, the No. 3 pick from 2014, didn't play in his rookie season. The Knicks can look at this as a move that vaults them up the draft ladder.
Now, as a rookie once more, Embiid is a project. His history of foot and back problems also mean he's a gamble. But the Knicks are in the market for big men, and the only tower who matches Embiid's two-way potential in this year's draft is Towns—who, in all likelihood, will go in the top three.
In his lone year at Kansas, Embiid showcased squeaky-clean footwork, as well as the ability to step out and drill the occasional jumper. He is athletic enough to anchor a top-tier defense, and did post the fourth-highest block rate among all qualified freshman ahead of the 2014 draft.
Selling this to the Sixers might be tough—or, you know, maybe not.
General manager Sam Hinkie apparently shopped Embiid at the trade deadline, according to Forbes' Mark Heisler. The idea that he can coexist alongside Nerlens Noel up front is also better in theory than practice.
As CSNPhilly.com's John Gonzalez previously wrote:
"In preparation for that eventuality, Brown moved Noel to power forward toward the end of the year. The current concept calls for Embiid to play the five and Noel to play the four and everyone to dance happily off into the distance. Traditional position names and requirements — you’re a five, you only stand under the basket — are often overblown and outmoded.
But in very loose, macro terms, playing Noel at power forward and Embiid at center will theoretically, at times, require Noel to move away from the basket at both ends of the floor.
"
Noel doesn't fit the mold for a modern-day power forward. He was a minus-3.4 in player efficiency rating at the 4 during the regular season, compared to a plus-6.8 at center, according to 82games.com. He shot just 26.3 percent outside eight feet as well.
Dealing Embiid frees up the Sixers to play Noel exclusively at center. It also allows them to keep their options open at No. 3. They could roll with Towns if he's still available, or they could pick up Russell or Mudiay to fill their hole at point guard.
Imagine, if you will, a starting five consisting of Russell or Mudiay, Robert Covington, Winslow, Dario Saric and Noel. It's a combination that's equally intriguing on both ends of the floor, guaranteeing the right amount of floor spacing and defensive versatility.
Said image may not take shape right away, since Saric isn't a lock to come stateside just yet. Looking two, three and four years into the future, though, this is a core that can catapult the Sixers back into prominence.
1. DeMarcus Cousins to the Rescue
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New York Knicks Get: C DeMarcus Cousins
Denver Nuggets Get: PG Darren Collison, SG Tim Hardaway Jr., PF Carl Landry, PG Emmanuel Mudiay/D’Angelo Russell
Sacramento Kings Get: PF Kenneth Faried and PG Ty Lawson
Let’s shoot for the moon.
Cousins is a great fit for the triangle offense. He can score inside and outside the post and is one of the NBA’s most talented front-line playmakers. He may even be obtainable.
Sources told Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck back in February the Kings don’t view Cousins as untouchable. They also said that Karl has an inkling to reunite with Lawson.
On top of that, Kiszla also writes that “it's realistic to expect point guard Ty Lawson or forward Kenneth Faried or both to be part of trade discussions” over the offseason. And, well, here we are.
If you think it’s crazy that the Nuggets would give up on Faried just as his extension kicks in, think again. He’s not an ideal power forward for today’s NBA; he boasts a shaky jumper and can neither protect the rim nor defend stretch 4s.
Sending Faried and Lawson to Sacramento puts part of the Nuggets’ band from 2012-13—the one that won 57 games—back together. Both players are palatable fits for Karl’s uptempo offense, and if Cousins really is available, the Kings could do much worse.
Karl doesn’t emphasize post play, which will invariably marginalize Cousins’ best attributes to some degree. He’s better off on a team like the Knicks that intends to work from the inside out or, at the very least, call for more post-up sets.
Unloading Faried’s $50 million contract is a win in itself for the Nuggets. They’re giving up two starters, but Collison will replace much of Lawson’s scoring and playmaking, and they nab a potential superstar in Russell or Mudiay.
Landry won’t supplant all of Faried’s rebounding, and he’s nowhere near as explosive. But he’s a better all-around offensive player who comes at nearly half the price.
The Nuggets are then free to chase another big at No. 7. Or they could go another direction, drafting Winslow and placing him alongside Danilo Gallinari and Chandler on the wings, with Hardaway coming off the pine. That's not a bad way to start rebuilding.
This is the only trade that lands the Knicks a surefire superstar, and while it’s a long shot, these are the types of deals they have to pursue.
Settling for less is a good way to regret shopping the No. 4 pick in the first place.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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