NBA Draft Lottery 2015: Last-Minute Predictions for Every Team in the Mix
With just one day before the NBA draft lottery, fortunes for several 2015 bottom-feeders are about to become much more clear.
Drawings for the first three selections in this year's draft order go down on Tuesday, at which point all teams will have a firm grasp of their draft-day strategy. For some front offices, a difference as small as a single draft position could be franchise-altering.
The Los Angeles Lakers, after two miserable campaigns, don't receive their pick if it falls to sixth overall. The New York Knicks, who finished with the league's second-worst record, could fall as far back as fifth—a place where Phil Jackson has mentioned a potential trade, per NBA.com.
Younger squads such as the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic are in much different positions, looking to add to their vast pool of young talent. For them, the exact order isn't make-or-break but will obviously provide a much clearer picture.
In order from least likely to land the first overall pick (Oklahoma City Thunder) to most likely (Minnesota Timberwolves), per ESPN.com, we'll predict potential draft-day scenarios for June 25.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder (0.5 Percent Chance)
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Unexpectedly missing the playoffs after injuries diminished the roster all season long, the Thunder are in the draft lottery for the first time since 2009.
When healthy, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are arguably the best pair of teammates in the league and make Oklahoma City a title contender. A draft pick in this range should be about patching the holes to return OKC to title contention, particularly at the shooting guard position, which former head coach Scott Brooks had difficultly managing all season.
Devin Booker out of Kentucky lines up perfectly for the Thunder at No. 14. In a lineup with two All-Stars, Booker's role would simply be to fill the gaps between possessions when things break down or when defenses double down on either star.
He shot 47 percent from the field and 41.1 percent from beyond the arc, which is ideal for Billy Donovan's new Thunder unit.
Selection: Devin Booker
13. Phoenix Suns (0.6 Percent Chance)
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After accidentally contending for the playoffs in 2013-14, the Phoenix Suns took an almost-intentional step back this past season. The front office added Isaiah Thomas last summer, almost as if to see if that near-playoff run was a fluke or the start to a legitimate run.
After a half-season of meddling around .500, the former turned out to be the case. The Suns shipped Thomas and Goran Dragic out, with more future assets coming back in return. Phoenix is still in asset-acquisition mode, and Kelly Oubre out of Kansas could be the next asset acquired.
Oubre is an intriguing all-around prospect, clocking in at 6'7" and flashing some encouraging scoring abilities in college. His athleticism should translate to effective defending down the line—though, like the rest of his arsenal, could take some years to develop.
Falling in line with Phoenix's plans, Oubre has the tools to be an impact player. It just may take a year or two.
Selection: Kelly Oubre
12. Utah Jazz (0.7 Percent Chance)
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A pick after Frank Kaminsky comes off the board, it only seems right that his Wisconsin teammate goes at No. 12 to the Utah Jazz.
Utah has its backcourt solidified with Trey Burke, Dante Exum and Alec Burks all promising pieces over the long term. Rudy Gobert emerged as a top young center this past season as a sophomore, and Gordon Hayward is the clear focal point at small forward.
Sam Dekker could back up Hayward at the 3 or log some minutes at power forward given his strong, 6'9", 220-pound frame, quick feet and athleticism. He's not a great three-point shooter, but he has range and is versatile on offense, able to create his own shot better than most players his size can.
Indirectly, off the ball, he could still benefit the Jazz's scoring. Salt City Hoops' Dakota Schmidt wrote about it:
"Dekker’s knack as an off-ball threat could allow him to be a good addition to Utah’s pass-happy offense, as the Jazz are filled with solid facilitators that could work it to him on cuts. Also, that open nature could help Dekker’s progression as a perimeter shooter, as working alongside Favors, Hayward or Exum could give him some open perimeter looks.
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Selection: Sam Dekker
11. Indiana Pacers (0.8 Percent Chance)
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Sometimes even the most successful NBA situations just run their course, and a change is necessary to shake up both personnel and attitude.
The Indiana Pacers reached back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals in 2013 and 2014 by deploying a rough-and-tumble unit that attempted to knock off the Miami Heat by brute force. They came closer than anyone else, but especially after Paul George almost completely lost his season in 2014, a change seems to be imminent.
Center Roy Hibbert, the face to Indiana's massive lineups over recent years, faces free agency this summer. Asked about the 7'3" big man's future with the Pacers, team president Larry Bird had some pretty telling remarks, per the Indianapolis Star's Candace Buckner.
"We assume he's going to be back and if he comes back, we're probably going to play another style," he said. "And I can't guarantee him anything. He's going to have to earn it."
With Indiana likely to switch to a smaller, more spaced-out attack moving forward, Frank Kaminsky seems like a great fit for the new-look Pacers at center.
The 7-footer out of Wisconsin isn't a defensive force but is skilled on offense and has three-point range. This could open things up for Paul George, who would then have even more free rein to operate inside the arc.
Selection: Frank Kaminsky
10. Miami Heat (1.1 Percent Chance)
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With the emergence of Hassan Whiteside at center, the Miami Heat essentially received a cornerstone piece for free. Dwyane Wade seems to be on the tail end of his reign as South Beach's top option, and Goran Dragic is no lock to return in free agency.
The team has flexibility this summer, and Pat Riley's championship aura is always a threat to lure in coveted free agents. Through the draft, Riley's front office could look to shore up a number of areas, but with Wade's and Dragic's uncertain status for the future, the backcourt seems like the best way to go.
Notre Dame's Jerian Grant seems likely to go near the top 10 after posting 16.5 points nightly on 47.8 percent shooting, earning consensus All-American honors. He shot 40.8 percent from distance his junior season, but that mark dipped to 31.6 this past season.
Grant may not stand out from his peers at any particular skill, but he thrives at most things a team will ask of him as a pro.
Selection: Jerian Grant
9. Charlotte Hornets (1.7 Percent Chance)
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After a disappointing season in 2014-15, the Charlotte Hornets can go in a number of different directions this summer. Al Jefferson seems destined to opt into his contract for next season, according to the Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell, but with Willie Cauley-Stein on the board, it'd be hard to turn down his defensive upside.
Cauley-Stein may be the best defensive player in the draft. Protecting the rim on Kentucky's NCAA-best defense, the 7-footer established himself as NBA-ready on that end. His offensive ceiling doesn't project to be nearly as high, but in the short term for Charlotte, that doesn't figure to be an issue with Jefferson in the fold.
He shot 59.3 percent from the field this past season with the Wildcats, albeit on shots almost exclusively at the rim. That may be what he's limited to as a pro, but at that success rate, he should see efficiency similar to Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan early in their careers.
Selection: Willie Cauley-Stein
8. Detroit Pistons (2.8 Percent Chance)
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The Detroit Pistons, with Stan Van Gundy in place, seem to finally have a long-term plan. Andre Drummond is a blossoming star in the middle at just 21 years of age, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope emerged as a consistent starter in the backcourt last season. After surrendering assets for Reggie Jackson at the trade deadline, there's reason to believe Van Gundy will do everything necessary to retain him in free agency.
There's currently an opening at the Pistons' small forward position, and Stanley Johnson could be on the board at No. 8. The 6'7" forward out of Arizona boasts a wingspan nearing seven feet and has one of the strongest frames of any draft candidate at a solid 245 pounds.
Johnson is an agile defender for his size and can make an impact right away on that end. His offensive game is slightly less developed, but he managed to shoot over 37 percent from distance in college.
According to the Detroit News' Rod Beard, Johnson already has a relationship with members of the Pistons family:
"The position I play, it's wide open for me to come in there and do something special. I know Reggie and I know Andre really well. They've reached out to me and told me that's where the team needs help and I think I can help out.
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If he's on the board, Johnson to Detroit seems as likely a pick as any.
Selection: Stanley Johnson
7. Denver Nuggets (4.3 Percent Chance)
8 of 14A year after finding a European steal in center Jusuf Nurkic, the Denver Nuggets would be wise to go that route once again this summer.
Kristaps Porzingis is a 7-footer hailing from Latvia who is one of the higher-upside prospects in this year's draft. The power forward has a reliable jump shot that qualifies him as a stretch 4, which pairs well with Nurkic's presence at the rim.
He'd be a good contrast to Kenneth Faried, whose offensive repertoire hasn't developed much outside of transition plays and a rare post-up look. Porzingis would likely come off the bench at first, though lineups with him at the small forward, Faried at the 4 and Nurkic in the middle are easy to imagine.
Selection: Kristaps Porzingis
6. Sacramento Kings (6.3 Percent Chance)
9 of 14With George Karl on board as head coach and somewhere near the top of the basketball-operations pecking order, it's easy to imagine the kind of team the Sacramento Kings will try to be over the next few seasons. With the Denver Nuggets, Karl preferred a higher-tempo offense that usually favored fluidly, finishing top five in efficiency in each of his last four seasons at the helm, per Hollinger Stats.
The team has a focal point resting in the paint in DeMarcus Cousins, and rumors have swirled regarding a potential reunion between Karl and Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson, per B/R's Howard Beck. Ben McLemore and Nik Stauskas are solid young assets in the backcourt, and Rudy Gay can be one of the league's best Option Bs when he's at his peak.
In 6'8" Croatian swingman Mario Hezonja, the Kings may have a young piece to further make Sacramento a prototypical Karl team. Hezonja can create offense for himself, either pulling up along the perimeter or driving to the rim, and he has a size advantage over most NBA guards.
The 20-year-old has played professionally for the last three seasons for Barcelona, giving him a superior advantage over most of his fellow prospects in this regard. The unfamiliar name may raise some eyebrows on draft night, but Hezonja is as close to a can't-miss prospect as Europe has to offer.
Selection: Mario Hezonja
5. Orlando Magic (8.8 Percent Chance)
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Living in the bottom portion of the Eastern Conference for some years now after shipping Dwight Howard to Los Angeles in 2012, the Orlando Magic already have several core pieces to build around. Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton comprise a viable two-way backcourt. Meanwhile, Aaron Gordon is still an intriguing prospect, and Nikola Vucevic is one of the best young centers the league has to offer.
The team still has no replacement after firing Jacque Vaughn as head coach in the middle of last season, and despite so many interesting pieces, the roster has very little identity or direction. That will probably need to wait until a new coach is in place.
Regardless of that eventual direction, Justise Winslow out of Duke is a player who can fit any team's ideology or strategy. At 6'6" with a wingspan over 6'10", Winslow is another two-way talent for the Magic to build with. At Duke, he changed several games defensively by guarding multiple positions and living in the passing lanes—his wingspan makes this a relatively easy task for him.
His shooting was a question entering the season, but he landed three-pointers at a 41.8 percent clip while taking nearly three a game in college. In the NCAA championship game against Wisconsin, while teammate Jahlil Okafor was struggling to put anything together, Winslow stepped up with hustle plays and scoring alike to set the Blue Devils over the top.
Thrusting Winslow into the team's starting 3 spots would instantly give them one of the better defensive starting fives in the East and, given the right head coach, one of the more promising situations over the near future.
Selection: Justise Winslow
4. Los Angeles Lakers (11.9 Percent Chance)
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Like several of the bottom-feeding lottery teams, the Los Angeles Lakers have a need at the point guard position. With the potential No. 4 pick and D'Angelo Russell off the board, Emmanuel Mudiay lines up as the newest Laker.
At 6'5", 200 pounds, the Texas native has the frame to compete at both guard positions. His shooting touch is suspect, but the 19-year-old makes great reads, particularly out of the pick-and-roll, and is one of the more explosive players in this year's draft.
On a roster as barren as L.A.'s, general manager Mitch Kupchak is desperate for players who can create for themselves and others—particularly with one of the team's only future pieces, Julius Randle, playing in the frontcourt. Mudiay satisfies this need.
Opting to play a pro season in China after issues of eligibility rose last summer after committing to SMU, Mudiay played only 12 games for his Chinese Basketball Association club after injuring his ankle early on. He returned for the team's playoff series in March, appearing just as effective as he did before the ailment. He averaged 18 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists.
His defensive effort and consistency have been questioned to this point, but there's no question that a player with his size and athleticism should make an impact on that end in the pros. For Los Angeles, it's a risk worth taking.
Selection: Emmanuel Mudiay
3. Philadelphia 76ers (17.6 Percent Chance)
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After trading Michael Carter-Williams at the trade deadline, the Philadelphia 76ers have an opening at their point guard position. Their bigger positions are set with Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid both slated to start, and with almost endless cap room, GM Sam Hinkie could be inclined to sign some NBA-ready talent through free agency.
To fill the void at the point with the third overall pick, Philly will have to choose between D'Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay. It comes down to fits within Philly's lineups between the two choices, and Russell seems to be the better one.
Both are 6'5", while Russell (175 lbs) packs a little less size than Mudiay does. But Russell's shooting makes all the difference here. In a lineup with two big men who rarely rely on non-paint offense, the 76ers will need as much spacing as necessary.
Russell shot better than 40 percent from three-point range with Ohio State last season, while Mudiay shot 34.2 percent in China from three and has very worrisome shooting form. Both provide similar size and scoring ability, but Russell's ability to space the floor, as well as get his skilled teammates involved, makes him the right pick at No. 3.
Selection: D'Angelo Russell
2. New York Knicks (19.9 Percent Chance)
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There'd be no better reward for the Knicks after the worst season in franchise history than to come up with the first overall pick in the draft. But if the current odds hold true to form, they'll still add a franchise-changing piece—one several expected to be the first overall selection through most of the season.
After Towns, Duke's Jahlil Okafor will almost certainly be the second player taken. And while there's some question as to whether Okafor is a perfect fit in a lineup with Carmelo Anthony, denying the 19-year-old's offensive impact would be foolish.
He shot 66.4 percent last season and averaged 17.3 points nightly for the Blue Devils. His offensive skill in the post is almost unprecedented for a player of his experience. In terms of immediate impact, he should be able to put his skills to use right away, especially considering his 6'11", 270-pound frame.
Al Jefferson is a decent pro comparison, but you get the feeling that could be more of a floor than a ceiling for the Chicago native.
His athleticism is questionable, and he didn't show good defensive instincts in his year at college. His rebounding was suspect for a player his size—just 8.5 per game—and his offensive range is nearly nonexistent.
For a team completely devoid of offense in the paint—almost necessary in Derek Fisher's triangle offense—Okafor would be a seamless fit on that end. Defensively, there could be issues, but with roughly $25 million in cap space this season, Phil Jackson should be able to add the necessary pieces to make it work.
Selection: Jahlil Okafor
1. Minnesota Timberwolves (25 Percent Chance)
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A year after shedding Kevin Love and acquiring several future assets, the Timberwolves' future is looking bright. If their 25 percent chance at winning the first overall pick comes to fruition, they'll instantly become a must-watch team on most nights, with bounds of youth and athleticism.
With that first overall pick, it would make sense to add Karl-Anthony Towns to a lineup that already consists of Ricky Rubio's playmaking and Andrew Wiggins' all-around superiority. With Gorgui Dieng slated to play major minutes at center after a breakout sophomore campaign and Kevin Martin a reliable scorer at shooting guard, this potential starting five would be a joy to watch develop as the season moves along.
Towns didn't get the chance to post gaudy stats at Kentucky under John Calipari's platoon system, but he improved as the campaign grew older and expanded his game over the course of the season.
He doesn't have the polished offensive repertoire that Duke's Jahlil Okafor can boast, but you can argue Towns' ceiling is higher thanks to his defensive prowess and expanded offense. Towns has a jump shot that extends to the three-point line—while Okafor seldom drifts out of the paint—and changed several games with his defense—something Okafor has never been known for and scouts question if he'll ever be able to.
According to Sports-Reference.com, per 40 minutes, Towns posted averages of 19.5 points, 12.7 rebounds and 4.3 blocks, which sure look like first-overall-pick numbers in this draft.
Selection: Karl-Anthony Towns
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