Realistic Draft Trade Possibilities for the Detroit Lions

There are more than a few opinions about how the Detroit Lions should use their first-round pick, and most of them, vehemently at times, differ. But one path seems to appeal to everyone—Detroit should trade down in the first round.

That, dear readers, is a very realistic scenario. And for that reason, it's been included here.

But there are other possibilities to move up and down the board in this draft. There will be varying degrees of likelihood and opinions of whether each trade should be made. However, all of the trades included in this slideshow will have a foot resting firmly in reality because they will all be based on the draft value chart (this one courtesy of Ourlads.com) that every team references to some degree.

So take a break from the hundreds of mock drafts that have filled your days and try on some trades for size.

Detroit Trades Back with Dallas for an Extra Pick

The most popular trade scenario by far has been Detroit moving back to recoup some of the picks given up for Haloti Ngata from the Dallas Cowboys. Luckily, it's also one of the most sensible things I've heard, which isn't always the case when folks get to dreaming about the draft.

According to Ourlads' NFL draft value chart, the difference between Detroit's and Dallas' first-rounders is 80 points. That means Detroit general manager Martin Mayhew can probably forget about the Cowboys' second- or third-rounders.

The more likely offer could involve a pair of fourth-round picks—one this year and one from 2016. Dallas' 127th overall pick in 2015 is worth 45 points. Next year's is unlikely to be any lower since it's the second-to-last pick in the round, and it has the potential to jump to 70 points if Dallas is a middle-of-the-road team.

Considering the steam that Georgia running back Todd Gurley has been picking up lately, thanks to positive health news, the likely target for Dallas will be Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon. He's almost unanimously the second-best running back in this draft. It'll be up to the Cowboys to determine how badly they covet Gordon in a deep draft for running backs, or if they really feel they can trust Darren McFadden.

Detroit Jumps Cincinnati to Grab an Offensive Lineman

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The odds of Detroit moving up in the first round took a drastic hit when Martin Mayhew shipped off his fourth- and fifth-round picks. Those chances didn't improve greatly when the Lions recovered a fifth from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for George Johnson, but that move did help restock the war chest.

And if there is a run on players —possibly some of the top-rated offensive linemen—high on Detroit's board, Mayhew's hand may be forced more than he would like.

One such scenario could involve jumping the Cincinnati Bengals. Josh Norris of Rotoworld currently projects Florida's D.J. Humphries to the Bengals in his latest mock, and he's a popular target for Lions fans and pundits, including Fox Sports 1's Jenna Laine:

"

Very athletic, now has the size to match RT @mikerothstein: The #Lions announce OT D.J. Humphries from Florida is on a pre-draft visit

— JennaLaineBucs (@JennaLaineBucs) April 16, 2015"

Mayhew would have to make up a 90-point differential to grab the Philadelphia Eagles' 20th overall pick. To do so, he'd probably have to give up next year's fourth (valued anywhere from 44 to 112 points) along with this year's sixth (17.8).

That offer isn't outrageous, because if Detroit is above average in 2015, it'll "win" the trade points-wise. But I'm not as sold on Humphries as some. The only way this move makes sense to me is if it is for LSU's La'el Collins, who has the nastiness to play guard (an immediate need) or the athleticism to play tackle.

New Orleans Moves Up for a Falling Edge Player

Todd Bennett/Getty Images

This has easily been one of the more volatile drafts in recent memory. Mock drafts can't seem to come to any consensus of where guys will go with the exception of Jameis Winston.

One popular conspiracy theory as we wade through the last days of the silly season is one of the popular edge players dropping, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:

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In the ESPN mock draft today both Shane Ray & Randy Gregory fell to the 20s. If that happens, which would you rather see with the Lions?

— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) April 27, 2015"

Missouri's Shane Ray and Nebraska's Randy Gregory were falling for different reasons. The former has been the target of "he's not athletic enough" speculation, while the latter failed a drug test at the combine. And now, word has leaked that Ray was cited for marijuana possession recently and failed a drug test in college, per Des Bieler of The Washington Post.

Granted, New Orleans has the 13th overall pick and would have obviously passed on whichever one fell to 23, but the Saints may feel more comfortable with the risk there. Plus, the Saints have a couple extra early picks as the result of a few trades.

So the Saints could part with their second third-rounder (78: 200 points) and get back Detroit's fifth (154: 27.4) for the privilege of solidifying their defense. Considering the drop-off in talent doesn't change much after the late teens in this draft, Detroit would be wise to add the extra Day 2 pick for its fifth-round pick.

Detroit Trades Back into Second Round for a Guard

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

No one is going to argue with Detroit's need for an offensive lineman. It isn't even a matter of debating the talent level of the team's current tackles; it is a matter of the reality that there is only one guard on the roster.

It's entirely possible that Detroit signs a veteran or two. Or Martin Mayhew could wait until a later round (I personally mocked Arizona State's Jamil Douglas to Detroit in the fifth recently) and groom a youngster behind Rob Sims or Justin Blalock.

It could also be realistic that Mayhew swings a deal with Bill Belichick to grab South Carolina's A.J. Cann or Hobart's Ali Marpet at the end of the second round. The New England Patriots head coach is always looking to add picks to future drafts, and this scenario would net him two third-rounders (88th this year: 150 points), with next year's third giving the variable to the trade that would almost assuredly fall Belichick's way (point range of 150 to 116).

If Detroit doesn't pounce on a guard by the 54th overall pick, there's a good chance that the above pair and Florida State's Tre' Jackson don't last until its next choice. That's still not a reason to panic. Bill Barnwell of Grantland summed up a similar situation well here:

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Perhaps the most common characteristic of bad organizations is that they make a habit of giving away draft picks to trade up and acquire a player with an earlier selection. It's almost always a strong sign that they simply don't understand the game at hand. The evidence suggests the NFL draft is most likely a crapshoot, so even if your team's draft board has a first-round grade on a player left in the middle of the second round, chances are that the rest of the league is right and you're wrong. Teams do trade up and succeed, of course, in the same way that a drunk blackjack player hits on 16 against a five and wins sometimes, but it's not an optimal strategy.

"

Basically, if it's not there, don't force it. While Detroit should have at least one extra third-rounder next year because of Ndamukong Suh's departure, there's no guarantee that any of the aforementioned players would be worth it.

Detroit Sells High on a Cornerback

Plenty of fans have already started begging for the Lions to use their second-round pick on Florida State's P.J. Williams. The former Seminole was considered by some to be a first-round pick until he was charged with drunk driving a few weeks ago.

It appears, however, that things may not be as perceived, according to Rand Getlin of Yahoo Sports:

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The DUI charge former #FSU CB P.J. Williams was facing has been dropped, per the Florida State Attorney's office.

— Rand Getlin (@Rand_Getlin) April 27, 2015"

Detroit head coach Jim Caldwell is a stickler for character, maturity and accountability. If it really is a case of a "designated driver" getting a raw deal, as he told B/R's Michael Schottey, that will be taken into account. But the mere fact that Williams refused to submit to a breathalyzer will be a cause for concern for some.

If Detroit won't pull the trigger on him, you can rest assured that someone else will. If he's still there in the second round and Detroit is on the clock, maybe the Patriots will move up from the bottom of the second round. Remember, Bill Belichick doesn't always win his deals, having moved up for Ras-I Dowling and Bethel Johnson in the past, and he has had to replace both of his starting cornerbacks this offseason.

If Detroit can extract the 101st pick to drop 10 spots, it's a sure win according to common sense and the numbers (plus-12). It might take Detroit's last pick to make this deal work.

Detroit Sells High on a Running Back

John Sommers/Associated Press

If a cornerback doesn't work as trade bait, maybe a running back will. There are several who people like in the second round, but there appears to be a headlining trio who should lead the way.

Therefore, if Indiana's Tevin Coleman, Boise State's Jay Ajayi or Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah is still on the board at 54, at least one team will put in a call to Martin Mayhew.

This time, it won't be the defending Super Bowl champions—it will be the team that came just one yard short of being the first repeat champion since the New England Patriots, the Seattle Seahawks.

Marshawn Lynch has been inked to a new deal. However, the 29-year-old running back has a brutal running style that could limit his shelf life. If the Seahawks aren't convinced that his heir apparent is on the roster, the 112th pick in exchange for Coleman or Ajayi could be a win for both teams.

The above move would leave Detroit shy about eight points per the value chart, but a seventh-rounder would help lessen that deficit and be plenty to push the deal toward completion.