Ranking the 5 Best Potential Free-Agent Destinations for LaMarcus Aldridge
At one point, LaMarcus Aldridge signing a summer extension with the Portland Trail Blazers seemed to be as guaranteed as the result when a certain 6'11" power forward turned, rose and fired a 13-foot jumper from the left side of the Moda Center's court. But with his team fighting for its life in a tough first-round matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, the big man's future is now also like one of those mid-range attempts—up in the air.
"Some Blazers players have already said they are worried free agency will take Aldridge away from Portland this summer," The Oregonian's Jason Quick recently reported. "Earlier this month, before a home game, a Blazers player estimated the chances of him returning to Portland at 50-50."
Now, the rumors are beginning. And it only makes sense, as it's not every day that a player this skilled becomes available.
Aldridge is coming off a regular season in which he averaged 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.0 blocks while shooting 46.6 percent from the field. He was named to the Western Conference All-Star squad for the fourth year in a row, and the combination of his rebounding ability, improving defense and stellar mid-range game is sure to be quite appealing to many teams.
Chief among them will be the Blazers, who would presumably love nothing more than to re-sign the franchise cornerstone. But according to the Twitter musings of ESPN.com's Marc Stein, the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks are going to be joining the fray as well.
Right now, we're not concerned with the likelihood of him going to each team, nor do we care about how heavily each of those five squads should pursue him.
What matters here is the fit for Aldridge. Where does he have the best chance to check off all the boxes that represent his primary goals in free agency?
5. Dallas Mavericks
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Technically, the Dallas Mavericks are indeed one of the best possibilities for Aldridge, but only because, outside of the listed five, no other serious contenders have emerged thus far. We're admittedly early in the proceedings, with the Blazers still fighting for their playoff lives against the Grizzlies, and that will surely change down the road as free agency begins to take center stage.
But what do the Mavericks actually have going for them right now?
Sure, Aldridge would get to return to his hometown, as he grew up in Dallas and was a Longhorn during his college days. He'd avoid paying state taxes, and he'd get to play for a great coach and owner. However, that's about where the positives end, since he'd be committing to an organization that's mired in uncertainty.
Even if Dirk Nowitzki is back on the roster rather than opting for retirement, the German 7-footer declined rather significantly during the 2014-15 season. He was a non-factor in the rebounding game, played defense as if he were already thinking about the next offensive possession and failed to live up to his superstar reputation.
And he's arguably the most certain aspect of the destination.
If Nowitzki, Aldridge and Tyson Chandler are all in the mix, how is that rotation going to work? No member of that hulking triumvirate can capably slide over to the 3, all need playing time and only one is a consistent rim-protecting presence. That's a recipe for disaster, not unlike when Greg Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith struggled to make a crowded frontcourt work with the Detroit Pistons.
And what about the guards? Rajon Rondo isn't going to be back, and that leaves a yawning chasm at point guard. Monta Ellis, disgruntled as he's appeared over the tail end of the year, can opt out of his contract and pursue a deal with a new team.
Unless Aldridge is desperate to revisit some of his pre-NBA stomping grounds on a regular basis, there's not much for him in Dallas.
4. Los Angeles Lakers
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Joining the Los Angeles Lakers would present a similar risk, but at least the team knows that it's basically starting fresh and likely has plans made for that situation.
Kobe Bryant is going to be around for one more season, and we know he can still play at a high level when he's healthy. On the court, he certainly won't reach the superstar status of his prime, but at least he can put the ball through the basket in plenty of ways. He's also spent the last few years making something out of nothing in the passing game, throwing up impressive assist totals despite the putridity of his offensive teammates.
Aldridge and Bryant could be a dynamic duo for their one season together, and it's likely the latter would see his efficiency levels climb into respectable territory when joined by another player who demands defensive attention.
Throw in Julius Randle, who looked promising in the preseason before breaking his leg midway through his official NBA debut. Add Jordan Clarkson into the mix after his second-half breakout. Then, you can also count on a top prospect from the 2015 draft (barring a mathematical disaster that pushes LAL from No. 4 to No. 6, thus forcing their pick to the Phoenix Suns...to the Philadelphia 76ers) and some other big-name free agents, given the loads of cap space.
The Lakers aren't going to be an immediate title threat, especially coming out of the Western Conference. But there are a few building blocks in place, money to spend in future summers and the allure of playing in front of the Tinseltown media.
"About an hour before Friday's game at the Staples Center, a man who would only identify himself as 'Gary the Lakers' Sign Guy' paraded around the court and shouted toward Aldridge while holding a No. 12 gold and purple Lakers jersey," Quick reported for The Oregonian in early April.
From here, the recruitment efforts are only going to intensify. And get a lot more official than fans waving around jerseys.
3. New York Knicks
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"He's widely seen as a player who can thrive in the triangle offense," ESPN.com's Ian Begley wrote about Aldridge. "The 29-year-old is effective in the post and can knock down a perimeter shot. Those skills, of course, are valuable in any offense. But they have significant value in the triangle, which can produce plenty of post touches and mid-range shots."
Aldridge isn't just a good fit for the geometric offense run by the New York Knicks. He's just about perfect, especially if he forces Derek Fisher to go extremely small by putting him and Carmelo Anthony at the biggest spots in the lineup—on occasion, at least.
A core of just Aldridge and Anthony isn't exactly the most promising start. Including someone like Langston Galloway doesn't make for a Big Three. Not by any stretch of the imagination, even though Anthony still needs to be considered a bona fide superstar—both in terms of production and fan appeal—when his knee has recovered.
But that's not all the Knicks are going to be working with.
Heading into the lottery, they're operating with the No. 2 pick in their pocket. At best, they'll move up into a position that could see them take their favorite player in the draft. At worst, they could be working with a top-five selection, and that's still not exactly a shabby building block.
Oh, and they play in the Eastern Conference. Of the five teams rumored to be chasing Aldridge, only the Knicks have the luxury of calling the NBA's weaker half home. That hasn't made a huge impact in recent free-agency decisions, but it's worth noting nonetheless.
Plus, as Begley explains, "One other thing to note on Aldridge: inking him to a maximum salary this summer would leave the Knicks with roughly $7 million to pursue other free agents. That's not much money, but it's a problem that Phil Jackson would welcome if it meant bringing one of the NBA's top big men to New York."
Building around Anthony, Aldridge and someone like Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor doesn't sound like much of a problem, even if the rest of the roster is mired in mediocrity.
2. Portland Trail Blazers
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Especially when, as Mike Tokito of The Oregonian notes on Twitter, you can get more money and an extra year on your deal by returning to your current stomping grounds, why break up a good thing?
When all the pieces are healthy, the Blazers still have one of the league's best starting fives. Well, assuming each of them returns to Rip City, as Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez and Aldridge are free agents this summer, and Nicolas Batum will hit the open market during the 2016 offseason. Only Damian Lillard is secure, but he's going to be due for a massive pay raise soon.
Still, if the Blazers can secure all their incumbent starters, they're already in great shape. When Bleacher Report's Dan Favale objectively ranked the best five-man lineups heading into the playoffs, he actually had to knock Portland from the No. 4 spot into the honorable mentions, as Matthews' Achilles tear prevented the unit from qualifying as a healthy quintet.
You know what you're going to get here—excellence that competes for one of the top spots in the tough Western Conference, just as has been the case for the past few seasons. Only health and a lackluster bench spell doom for the Blazers, and the second unit is only getting better as younger players come into their own.
"I want to be the best Blazer—ever..." Portland's power forward told The Oregonian's Joe Freeman last summer. "I should be able to leave a mark on a big-time franchise that is going to be seen forever. And I will be able to say I played here my whole career. This city has embraced me and grown with me. I have so much history, it just makes sense to stay."
If that remains true, it'll be because he believes in both the superiority of the healthy starting five, as well as the growth of players like C.J. McCollum and Meyers Leonard. Only internal improvement is going to help here, as Rip City won't have many high draft picks and will be above the cap if it retains all of its key pieces.
1. San Antonio Spurs
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Just imagine.
The San Antonio Spurs match a max offer sheet once Kawhi Leonard hits restricted free agency. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili re-sign with the team on smaller deals, much like Nowitzki did last summer so the Mavericks could land Chandler Parsons. Danny Green decides to stay in town and turns down bigger offers elsewhere.
And then the 2014 NBA champions—who, mind you, could still become back-to-back winners—sign Aldridge.
Yikes.
All of a sudden, you'd be looking at a ridiculous starting five of Tony Parker, Green, Leonard, Aldridge and Duncan. That's a ferocious two-way animal filled with unselfish players who embody the Gregg Popovich gospel. And if you're worried about a 39-year-old Duncan playing center, don't be. He's perfectly comfortable playing the 5, because, well, he's been doing so for years while masquerading under the power forward label.
In addition to playing close to home and not worrying about state tax, Aldridge would be on a team that would assuredly be called a top contender for the 2016 title. Then he'd transition into being a face of the franchise, leading the squad in the post-Duncan era while forming a terrifying tandem with Leonard for years to come.
Playing for the Spurs is this big man's best chance of success, both now and well into the future. Not just because of the pieces already in place, but because the system ensures that his skills will remain valuable for years to come. Players are ageless in San Antonio—which may or may not have unfettered access to something Ponce de Leon once mistakenly thought was in Florida—and that should be important for a big man who will turn 30 this July.
Of course, the assumption at the beginning is a big one. The league's newest Defensive Player of the Year likely won't take a discounted contract to stay in San Antonio, and there's no guarantee Duncan and Ginobili will, either. In all likelihood, Green may be forced out if Aldridge is pursued, and that's a substantial loss.
But even if that's the case, there's almost too much to like about this location. The Spurs would just continue to laugh at the rest of the league from their perennial perch atop the league's front-office totem pole.
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