2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Baltimore Ravens Stars
It’s new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman’s turn to build on the recent achievements of the Baltimore Ravens stars. Steve Smith Sr., Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco will learn their fourth scheme in as many years while trying to carry over the successes of 2014.
Current Denver Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak helped lift the Ravens offense out of a funk last season, finishing eighth in scoring and 12th in yards—11th in standard fantasy scoring.
General manager Ozzie Newsome and head coach Jim Harbaugh now must find and develop talent to complement Trestman’s offense after the marquee departures of Owen Daniels and Torrey Smith. Newsome is biding his time leading up to the draft, keeping established talent in house rather than luring fresh faces with bulky contracts.
The 2015 NFL draft will be pivotal for the Ravens to sustain success, adding to a roster of aspiring and established fantasy football assets.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 9
Matt Schaub, QB
The last journeyman backup under Marc Trestman’s tutelage—Josh McCown—landed a sweet free-agent deal just a couple of years later.
I’m not saying it worked out, I’m just saying…
Aldrick Robinson, WR
Robinson—a 5’10”, 184-pound speed demon who spent his first three seasons with the Washington Redskins—is trying to land a spot on Baltimore’s 53-man roster after ending the season on its practice squad.
The 26-year-old brings quickness to the table but not much else. If he can’t make it in Baltimore, he’s probably done in the NFL.
Fitzgerald Toussaint, RB
Toussaint bounced on and off the practice squad in 2014, contributing limited numbers in a crowded backfield.
The undrafted rookie from Michigan jumps up a spot on the depth chart thanks to Bernard Pierce’s release, but he will lost that ground quickly if the Ravens draft a running back early.
Jeremy Butler, WR
Butler impressed in OTAs but spent most of his rookie season on injured reserve with a sprained shoulder.
The undrafted Tennessee-Martin Skyhawk has a chance to see limited action in an unsettled group of wideouts that just lost veterans Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith.
Crockett Gillmore, TE
Gillmore wrapped up a quiet rookie campaign with 10 catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t push the now-departed Owen Daniels for targets, which leads one to wonder why owner Steve Bisciotti thinks he’s good for “30-40 balls” in 2015, according to Garrett Downing of BaltimoreRavens.com.
Bisciotti mentioned a desire to find another pass-catching tight end like Dennis Pitta in the middle rounds of the draft in the same interview. Therefore, it looks like the smoke blowing Gillmore’s way is nothing but a smokescreen.
The third-rounder from the Colorado State Rams will most likely find work as a blocker for the majority of his playing time.
Michael Campanaro, WR
The Ravens are expecting Campanaro to be a part of a young, up-and-coming wide receiver corps, according to Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun:
"John Harbaugh mentioned Michael Campanaro, Kamar Aiken as young players who have a chance to grow into bigger roles this season
— Aaron Wilson (@RavensInsider) April 8, 2015
"
The 2014 seventh-rounder out of Wake Forest caught almost as many passes (four) in two playoff games as he did in the entire regular season (seven), which indicates Joe Flacco trusted his hands when it counted.
Campanaro is nothing more than a slot sleeper in points-per-reception leagues, but he is worth following on a depth chart up for grabs.
Kamar Aiken, WR
2 of 9
The void left from Torrey Smith’s departure to the San Francisco 49ers is so vast, ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley doesn’t believe his replacement is currently on the roster.
Ozzie Newsome didn’t make a move in free agency, leaving the draft, post-June 1 waivers and training camp cuts as the only alternative to reserves like Aiken.
The 2011 undrafted free agent from the Central Florida Knights bounced from the Buffalo Bills to the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots before landing in Baltimore in 2013. He didn’t register an offensive stat in the NFL until 2014, notching 24 receptions for 267 yards and three touchdowns.
Aiken is worth a sniff if he cracks the starting lineup of a Marc Trestman offense, but that’s a big “if.” Keep Aiken on the watch list until training camp and move him up into the top 75 if the Ravens stand pat at wideout.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 35 receptions, 400 yards and three touchdowns.
Jaelen Strong, WR
3 of 9
The draft experts agree Baltimore needs to power up at the perimeter on both sides of the ball. Ryan Mink of BaltimoreRavens.com compiled 12 expert mock drafts, with two-thirds predicting the Ravens would take a wide receiver or cornerback at No. 26.
Strong led the pack with 25 percent of the vote due to his complementary size alongside Steve Smith Sr., according to ESPN’s Todd McShay:
"I have them taking Strong in this scenario as a big-play target to replace Torrey Smith opposite Steve Smith Sr. Strong isn't the burner Torrey Smith was and takes a little time to build up speed, but his 4.44 40 and 42-inch vertical leap are good numbers for a player his size (6-2, 217 pounds), and he shows the ability to separate when the ball is in the air and come down with contested catches.
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NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein compares the Arizona State Sun Devil to Dwayne Bowe:
"Individual elements of Strong's game aren't awe-inspiring, but scouts really love the entirety of his game and where it is headed. His strength, size and ability to catch contested throws will be coveted by some, but his issues with separation quickness can only be solved if he becomes much better in his route-running. Strong looks the part of a physical, possession receiver with a relatively high floor.
"
Mock Draftable compares Strong to Miles Austin, listing his vertical jump as his highest attribute and his hand size as his biggest liability.
John Harbaugh said signing a free-agent wideout is still an option—according to Mink—but the remaining talent pool isn’t teeming with quality.
A lot can happen at the back end of the first round, but Strong or Breshad Perriman from UCF looks like a logical choice if available. Either player would be the favorite to start next to Smith at WR2 on opening day.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 40 receptions, 475 yards and five touchdowns.
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Marlon Brown, WR
4 of 9
Brown regressed in his second NFL season, dropping from seven touchdowns scored in 2013 to zero in 2014, including zero red-zone targets, according to CBSSports.com. The complete absence of red-zone production is especially troubling considering Brown measures 6’5”, 214 pounds.
The 2013 undrafted rookie out of Georgia struggled to maintain the value he established in his rookie season when Steve Smith signed with the Ravens in 2014. The 5’9”, 195-pound, 35-year-old ate into Brown’s opportunities, dropping his targets from 82 to 31.
The Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec reported Brown accepted the diminished role willingly:
"Steve Smith came in. I didn't feel like I was forgotten or nothing. Steve Smith was on the team. That's Steve Smith, he's a Hall of Famer. I had no problem with it. It's a coach's decision and I'm very coachable. If the coach tells me, 'Steve is going to come in and do this,' I was like, 'It's all good.' I'm a team guy. Small me, big team.
"
With Torrey Smith out of the picture, Brown figures to be the front-runner to return to the WR2 role he earned as a rookie, only to relinquish last season. Steve Bisciotti denied the Ravens need to add anyone at wideout, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com: “We absolutely need a tight end. We do not absolutely need a wide receiver. I've got my guys very high on our wide receivers. So, I'm not desperate for a wideout.”
Joe Flacco agreed, per Hensley.
Smith pledged support for Brown specifically, according to Garrett Downing of BaltimoreRavens.com.
“I think that he will show you this year that he is a guy that has improved and continues to make strides. He really just got caught in a situation of bringing in some new acquisitions, but he’s a guy that I think is going to get a lot more playing time.”
It’s either offseason banter, or Baltimore is prepared to enter 2015 with the third-cheapest receiver payroll in the league, according to Spotrac. It’s Brown’s job to lose if Ozzie Newsome maintains the status quo.
Tag Brown as a very poor man’s Torrey Smith for fantasy purposes in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 55 receptions for 600 yards and five touchdowns.
Dennis Pitta, TE
5 of 9
Pitta is recovering from his second fractured/dislocated hip in as many seasons. Steve Bisciotti is hoping the five-year veteran is cleared to return, according to The Baltimore Sun’s Aaron Wilson on Twitter:
"Steve Bisciotti: 'I'm praying that Dennis comes back and he's healthy enough and they come to a solution and he feels comfortable.'
— Aaron Wilson (@RavensInsider) April 1, 2015
"
ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley tweeted Pitta still isn’t sure if he can answer his owner’s prayers:
"Tight end Dennis Pitta said it's too early to tell whether he will play in 2015. His hope is to play.
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) April 26, 2015
"
Owen Daniels left via free agency, following former offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. Pitta would be the guaranteed starter if he returns to the field in 2015.
The 2014 fourth-rounder caught 61 passes for 669 yards and seven touchdowns in 2012, his last complete season. He finished seventh in fantasy scoring among tight ends.
Take Pitta in the late rounds as a backup tight end, and you might reap huge rewards if he returns to pre-injury form.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 82 receptions, 675 yards and four touchdowns.
Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB
6 of 9
Taliaferro’s emergence in 2014 rendered Bernard Pierce expendable after his arrest for DUI in mid-March.
"Bernard Pierce has been released by the Ravens.
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) March 18, 2015"
The pair swapped playing time behind Justin Forsett as the Ravens moved on from disgraced star Ray Rice.
The 2014 fourth-round pride of the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers missed chunks of time after a Week 9 fumble against the Pittsburgh Steelers and season-ending foot injury after Week 14. ESPN.com’s Jamison Hensley reported Taliaferro was benched due the game plan, not performance, according to John Harbaugh.
“You’ll see Lorenzo without question. There's no punishment going on there. I just think it has been Justin has been playing so well. But Lorenzo has to be there for us, especially down the stretch here.”
Taliaferro is the apparent handcuff for Forsett owners unless Baltimore spends an early pick on a running back in the draft. He showed dynasty-worthy potential as a rookie, chewing up 4.3 yards per carry on the ground and averaging 14.3 yards per reception on eight catches.
Forsett is a great fit in Marc Trestman’s offense, which means Taliaferro will probably see only meager increases in playing time.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 650 yards rushing and six touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 125 yards
Steve Smith Sr., WR
7 of 9
Smith enjoyed a resurgence in his first season with the Ravens after 13 Canton-bound seasons with the Carolina Panthers. He posted more than 1,000 yards receiving (1,065) for the eighth time in his career, finishing 20th in fantasy scoring among wide receivers.
The 35-year-old front-loaded his comeback, notching four double-digit games in Baltimore’s first six, followed by just two in the last 10. John Harbaugh indicated Smith might take a reduced role in his 15th season, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com.
"Steve was brimming with enthusiasm the last time I talked to him to come back and play a role, whatever role that might be. It doesn't have to be a role where he is playing every snap. He still looks like he has plenty left in the tank to me."
The Ravens are inexperienced at wideout, so Smith is the favorite to remain WR1 by default in 2015. But that won’t necessarily translate to fantasy success with so much young talent available, even in a pass-happy Marc Trestman offense.
Count on Smith to make a safe WR3/flex, but don’t draft him until the later rounds.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 75 receptions for 950 yards and four touchdowns.
Justin Forsett, RB
8 of 9
Forsett re-signed with Baltimore after a career season in 2014, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter on Twitter:
"Ravens reached agreement with RB Justin Forsett, per source. RB market heating up.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2015
"
The three-year, $9 million contract isn’t a blockbuster, but it’s a big raise for the seven-year veteran who posted 1,529 yards from scrimmage after previously never topping 1,000.
Baltimore originally signed Forsett in 2014 as a street free agent after the Jacksonville Jaguars cut him halfway through his two-year deal. He played one season under then-Ravens offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak when he was head coach of the Houston Texans in 2012.
John Harbaugh applauded Forsett’s versatility when he joined the Ravens, according to Ryan Mink of BaltimoreRavens.com:
"He’s the kind of guy that is a very versatile player. He’s got great hands, does a great job in pass protection. Obviously, he can run the ball as a running back. He also contributes on special teams. He’s just a very versatile football player and has had a lot of success since he came into the league.
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Pro Football Focus concurred, grading Forsett’s 2014 performance sixth among running backs. Harbaugh mentioned Forsett “proved” he could be the lead back in 2015, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com.
It remains to be seen how he will jell in Marc Trestman’s scheme, but if Forsett can match even half of Matt Forte’s numbers over the last two years, he will make a successful RB2 who is deserving of an early-round pick in 2015—especially in PPR leagues.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 1,050 rushing yards and six touchdowns, plus 50 receptions for 300 yards and two scores.
Joe Flacco, QB
9 of 9
Although he’s signed through 2018, Flacco is entering a contract year of sorts with a $28.6 million cap number looming in 2016. Steve Bisciotti assured season ticket-holders via conference call Baltimore will spread those remaining three years into a flatter six-year deal, according to Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com.
Bisciotti said he isn’t planning on a tense negotiation: "I'm not real worried about it. I know he wants to stay."
Flacco shared the Ravens’ confidence, per Hensley: "I'd definitely like to [get a deal done]. It's good to hear him say that."
The 2008 first-round pick from the Delaware Blue Hens boasts 112 consecutive starts, coming off a career-best season passing with 3,986 yards and 27 touchdowns. All that’s worth in fantasy circles is a 13th-place finish among quarterbacks, though.
Flacco must endure Baltimore’s fourth change at offensive coordinator in as many years. He began 2012 with Cam Cameron and ended it with Jim Caldwell, who remained the OC through 2013. Gary Kubiak took over for Caldwell in 2014, and now Marc Trestman replaces Kubiak for 2015.
It’s an embarrassment of inconsistency orbiting such a steady quarterback, but Flacco knows what Trestman brings to the table, according to Hensley:
"I'm really excited about Marc being here. I think he's a great mind. I think he does a great job in the meeting room. My conversations with him have gotten me excited. I think he's excited about being here, which is always good. We were just back for the first week, and I think it went really well. I expect it to be that way.
"
Trestman oversaw Josh McCown’s only successful period in the NFL and even got through to Jay Cutler in the early stages of his time with the Bears. Of course, Cutler and McCown benefited from a far superior supporting cast in Chicago—Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett—but Flacco is the best quarterback of the trio.
He graded far above both in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.
Draft him as your QB2, but trust Trestman to play to his new quarterback’s strengths. Flacco has an outside shot at cracking the top 10 in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks for the first time in his career.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 3,525 yards passing and 23 touchdowns.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference, fantasy stats provided by ESPN.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and hat tip to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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