2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Seattle Seahawks Stars
Head coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider began gradually shifting the scheme for the Seattle Seahawks stars in 2015. The focus will still flow through Marshawn Lynch and the running game, but Jimmy Graham’s arrival signals an increased emphasis on Russell Wilson and a passing attack.
Seattle’s overall offense accomplished a No. 9 rank in yards and a No. 10 in scoring in 2014, finishing 12th in fantasy points. The Seahawks' offensive success derived from the league’s strongest rushing attack, averaging a league-leading 172.6 yards per game and 20 touchdowns.
But Seattle flashed a possible change of direction when it traded its best run-blocking offensive lineman—center Max Unger, according to Pro Football Focus—for one of the best pure pass-catching tight ends in the league.
Anticipation of Lynch’s imminent decline or departure is a plausible motive for the sudden move.
Graham certainly won’t be expected to directly improve the running game, although his 14th-ranked run-blocking grade from PFF is better than popularly believed. Defensive end and new teammate Michael Bennett still insists the 6’7”, 265-pounder is “soft,” according to an April 9 interview on ESPN Seattle’s Justin and Gee Show.
Defensive opinions aside, Graham’s mere presence uplifts the 2015 fantasy football outlook for many of his new teammates around him.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 10
Ricardo Lockette, WR
Lockette tweeted he re-signed with the Seahawks in March:
"Proud to be a Seahawk another year #GodDidIt #GoHawks #rockette
— Ricardo Lockette (@RicardoLockette) March 10, 2015
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He will remain a special teamer primarily, unless there are several injuries above him on the depth chart.
Kevin Norwood, WR
Norwood didn’t step up when Paul Richardson tore his ACL in January, recording zero stats while missing two of Seattle’s three postseason games as a healthy scratch, according to Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times.
The 2014 fourth-rounder out of Alabama is in danger of getting lost in the shuffle if the Seahawks bring in more receivers during or after the draft, as expected.
Paul Richardson, WR
Richardson’s torn ACL in the playoffs ended a promising rookie campaign from a fantasy perspective. The second-rounder out of Colorado finished third among Seahawks wide receivers in receptions (29) and yards (271). His presence no doubt helped render Percy Harvin expendable.
Richardson injured the same knee he had in college, according to the Everett Herald’s John Boyle on Twitter.
Condotta tweeted Pete Carroll anticipates Richardson could miss the start of the season:
"Carroll says Paul Richardson's recovery going well but nature of rehab means may not be ready for season. ...
— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) March 25, 2015
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Richardson will find more competition for targets in 2015, which is a bad sign for his fantasy outlook in a run-oriented offense.
Christine Michael, RB
2 of 10
Michael comes with the skills and hype as the favorite to back up Marshawn Lynch. The problem is the 2013 second-rounder can’t beat out Robert Turbin for playing time.
Turbin ended the season as Lynch’s primary backup, taking 86 snaps in the final five games (including playoffs), according to Pro Football Focus. Michael saw just 19 snaps in the final two weeks of the regular season, and didn’t appear on offense in the playoffs.
Yet somehow, the experts continue to rate Michael ahead of Turbin in spite of the results on the field. Things would change if Lynch got hurt, but otherwise don’t believe the hype.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 100 carries for 400 yards and one touchdown.
Jermaine Kearse, WR
3 of 10
Kearse remains a Seahawk after no other team bit on the second-round tender offered to the restricted free agent, according to ESPN’s Field Yates on Twitter.
"2 additional RFA's that received the 2nd round tender worth $2.356M: Seahawks WR Jermaine Kearse and Bengals LB Emmanuel Lamur.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) March 6, 2015
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The 2012 undrafted free agent out of Washington didn’t impress in his first season as a full-time starter opposite Doug Baldwin. He managed just 38 catches for 537 yards and a touchdown, and ranked 81st out of 110 wideouts, per PFF.
His performance improved in the playoffs however, racking up 209 yards and two touchdowns on just seven receptions for a 29.9 yards-per-catch average. Two of those catches headlined the postseason highlights in the NFC championship and the Super Bowl.
Seattle boasted the strongest rushing attack in the NFL in 2014, according to PFF. Jimmy Graham’s arrival and Chris Matthew’s emergence means Kearse will be fourth on the food chain in an already paltry passing-game.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 30 receptions for 425 yards and one touchdown.
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Robert Turbin, RB
4 of 10
Turbin solidified his backup role to Marshawn Lynch late in 2014, taking 82 percent of the reserve reps, according to PFF. But backing up Lynch isn’t an exciting gig, considering the Pro Bowler took 67 percent of Seattle’s snaps.
Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell praised Turbin’s readiness during a media session leading up to the Super Bowl (h/t Mike Wilkening of Pro Football Talk).
"He does a great job. Number one, he understands his role and he embraces that role. He doesn’t gripe and complain about the role he is in. He is very prepared. If something happened and he had to play every snap, there would be no question that he would be able to get it done.
He is a true professional who works hard at his craft. He tries to get better every day. No detail is too small for him. That is why you like guys like that in that role.
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The 2012 fourth-rounder out of Utah State runs strong—4.2 yards per carry—and catches well—17 for 184 and two touchdowns (including playoffs). But his fantasy value is limited to Lynch’s handcuff for 2015.
Turbin—not Christine Michael—is a must-own for wise Lynch owners, given Seattle’s propensity to run.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 75 carries for 300 yards and 15 receptions for 150 yards and two combined touchdowns.
Luke Willson, TE
5 of 10
Seattle released Zach Miller for cap purposes before trading for Jimmy Graham, leaving Willson firmly in the No. 2 tight end slot. Willson said he looks forward to the opportunities opposite Graham when he joined The Steve Sandmeyer Show on 1090 The Fan.
"I think that our two-tight end package is really going to put a lot of pressure on defenses. I think Jimmy Graham is going to help open me up, and open up other guys, and also help open up the run game. So he adds a whole new dimension to our offense. When you get a Pro Bowl guy like Jimmy Graham, things are definitely going to change.
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The 2013 fifth-rounder out of Rice built toward a strong finish with nine receptions for 239 yards and three touchdowns in three games from Week 16 to the divisional playoffs. But he caught just two for 11 yards in the NFC championship before the New England Patriots held him without a target in the Super Bowl.
Willson is nothing more than a speculative add on dynasty rosters at this point, but the 6’5”, 252-pounder has the size and speed—4.51-second 40-yard dash, according to Rotoworld—to open up the middle if that’s in Seattle’s 2015 game plan.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 25 receptions for 400 yards and three touchdowns.
Chris Matthews, WR
6 of 10
Matthews never saw a target in the NFL until Super Bowl XLIX, resulting with an MVP-like four receptions, 109 yards and one touchdown. He was asked what he can do to avoid becoming the next David Tyree or Mario Manningham in an interview on Jay Mohr Sports on Fox Sports Radio (h/t Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal).
“I'm definitely going to come back a better player. That's definitely something I want to do. I never want to come back to a team the same player.”
At 6’5”, 218 pounds, Matthews is by far the tallest receiver on the Seahawks depth chart. The Canadian Football League’s most outstanding rookie in 2012 must use his size to crack one of the most underwhelming receiving lineups in the league—Seattle finished 2014 tied for 22nd in passing touchdowns and 27th in yards.
The 2011 undrafted rookie out of Kentucky will create size mismatches for opponents that must focus their most physical defenders on newly acquired tight end Jimmy Graham.
Sock Matthews away as a deep-sleeper for now, banking on the upside as he works his way into Seattle’s starting lineup.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 40 receptions for 550 yards and four touchdowns.
Doug Baldwin, WR
7 of 10
Baldwin led all Seahawks pass-catchers in every receiving category with 66 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season, adding 10 for 147 and two in the playoffs. The 5’10", 189-pounder is built to excel in the slot.
He graded eighth among slot receivers in 2014—according to PFF—stepping into the role vacated by Golden Tate and Percy Harvin.
The 2011 undrafted free agent from Stanford persevered over bigger names like Tate, Harvin and Sidney Rice, but he can’t flourish as Seattle’s WR1 without help.
The emergence of Chris Matthews and acquisition of Jimmy Graham should help Seattle match up Baldwin against safeties, linebackers and nickel corners. The result will be more receptions and yards for the reliable four-year veteran.
That said, we are talking about the run-first Seahawks. Baldwin figures to be a flex option at best in 2015, but should come at a great value late in fantasy drafts.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 70 receptions for 975 yards and four touchdowns.
Russell Wilson, QB
8 of 10
Flirtations with baseball dominated the trailer of Wilson’s interview on HBO’s Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel, which debuted April 21. Gumbel asked Wilson why he’s continuing to pursue baseball with pedestrian minor-league stats—.227 batting average, five home runs and 26 RBI.
"I wouldn’t be worried about the statistics of it. I know I can play in the big leagues. With the work ethic and all that, I think I definitely could for sure. And that’s why the Texas Rangers got my rights. And they want me to play. Jon Daniels, the G.M., wants me to play. We were talking about it the other day.
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The other topic swirling around the 2012 third-rounder out of Wisconsin is his ongoing contract-extension talks with the team, according to The Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta on Twitter:
"Carroll, asked about contract talks with Wilson says they are "ongoing."
— Bob Condotta (@bcondotta) April 2, 2015
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Wilson is currently the 62nd-highest-paid quarterback, despite leading his team the Super Bowl in each of the past two seasons. He finished third among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring and first in rushing with 849 yards and six touchdowns.
His 95.0 passer rating ranked top 10, although his passing game could still use some improvement, according to PFF—graded 13th overall, 19th in passing.
Wilson’s running ability is an asset in fantasy circles thanks to the way he avoids the big hit while eating up chunks of gridiron. His rushing average and total increased steadily over his first three seasons when most quarterbacks decrease rushing production over time due to attrition.
Jimmy Graham’s addition only fortifies Wilson’s prospects, easily locking him in among the top-five fantasy quarterbacks in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 3,750 passing yards and 27 touchdowns, plus 800 yards rushing and five touchdowns.
Jimmy Graham, TE
9 of 10
Graham’s trade from the New Orleans Saints to the Seahawks rates as one of the most unexpected headlines of the 2015 offseason. Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer first tweeted the shocking news as the 2015 league year broke open with numerous trades and signings on Day 1.
"The Saints and Seahawks are trying to finalize trade Jimmy Graham and a 4th rounder for Max Unger and Seattle first rounder
— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) March 10, 2015
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Pete Carroll expressed his admiration for Graham’s skill set at the owner’s meetings, according to John Corbett of USA Today Sports.
"Jimmy's the leading rebounder in the history of University of Miami basketball. He's got such a great wingspan. He's scored 35 touchdowns the last three years. It just makes us more difficult to deal with when you run the ball as much as we do."
Graham’s addition is a boost to Seattle’s 13th-ranked passing game, according to PFF. But what does the move mean for Graham, leaving the fifth-ranked Saints?
Odds are his fantasy numbers will take a step back as he, Russell Wilson and company get acquainted on Sundays. But that doesn’t mean the five-year vet won’t continue to rack up the numbers that make him a perennial top-tier tight end.
Graham currently projects as the second tight end off the board in the late-third or early fourth round. Reaching for him any sooner could prove costly.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 75 receptions, 900 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Marshawn Lynch, RB
10 of 10
After eight seasons of hard running, Lynch shows no signs of dropping the “Beast Mode” moniker. That’s why the Seahawks extended Lynch through 2017, according to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk.
The deal is only guaranteed through 2015, so Lynch and/or Seattle are free to sever ties if desired.
He finished tied for 10th in yards per attempt with 4.7, the second-best average of his career. He tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns for the second year in a row.
Lynch continued to develop as a receiver, posting a career-best 37 receptions for 367 yards and four touchdowns. The dual threat ranked fifth in yards from scrimmage with 1,673.
The reclusive fantasy stud ended 2014 ranked third among running backs, averaging 15.8 points per game despite nagging injuries and ailments. He enters 2015 as an obvious first-rounder and arguably the No. 1 pick overall.
Lynch’s consistency and increased production over the last four seasons are hard to match. His growth in the passing game strengthens his case.
The only downside is the Seahawks could be transitioning away from such a run-heavy scheme, but Seattle is likely to wait until Lynch is gone before shifting the focus to Russell Wilson.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 1,300 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, plus 35 receptions, 350 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats provided by ESPN.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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