Buccaneers Need to Make a Play for Philip Rivers If QB Is Available for Trade

If you're the type of person who likes rumors and speculation, then the weeks leading up to the NFL draft are like Christmas.

"Silly season" is a time when all sorts of potential draft-day storylines abound. In 2015, those storylines have focused on the draft's top quarterback prospects: Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota.

Intrigue grew when speculation (there's that word again) mounted that at least one NFL team was considering dealing its Pro Bowl quarterback to move up and snag Mariota. That talk has centered on San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers and the Tennessee Titans, who pick second in this year's draft.

However, if it's true that the Chargers really are so enamored by Mariota—and so concerned about Rivers' future with the team—that they're seriously considering dealing their star quarterback to get the youngster, then it's time for another NFL team to enter the fray: the only team that could head the Tennessee Titans off at the pass and snag Rivers for themselves, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The genesis of all this hubbub surrounding Rivers was his comments regarding his future with the Chargers and their potential move up the coast to Los Angeles, something Rivers wants no part of, as reported by Kevin Acee of U-T San Diego:

"

What I can control and all I know as of today, I am signed up for one more year. I guess things could change, but with all the uncertainty in many aspects, I don't see it changing before camp gets here, and when camp gets here I'm even more certain to play it out.

What we've established here with my growing family is hard to recreate. It's hard to up and recreate that. I know that moves are part of life. But that certainly is fair to say that [not being sold on moving to Los Angeles] is part of it. The good thing is I'm not under contract in a year where we'd potentially be in Los Angeles.

"

The Bolts themselves recently fanned the flames. As Michael Gehlken of U-T San Diego reported, the Chargers sent a large contingent, including head coach Mike McCoy, offensive coordinator Frank Reich, quarterbacks coach Nick Sirianni and several front-office members, to Eugene, Oregon, to watch Mariota work out.

That was enough to ramp up speculation (that's three) that the Chargers could be seriously entertaining the idea of getting something for Rivers now as opposed to just watching him walk or even retire after the 2015 season rather than play in La-La Land.

At this point it's time for some cold water. It's entirely possible that Rivers' comments were as much about posturing for upcoming contract talks as they were his genuinely being 100 percent dead set against playing in Los Angeles.

It's also entirely possible that the Chargers were simply doing due diligence on Mariota in the exceedingly unlikely event that the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner slides on draft day.

Still, there's an old saying that where there's smoke there's fire—and you'd need a respirator not to choke on all the smoke swirling around this one.

Most of that smoke appears to be drifting in the direction of Nashville, and it isn't hard to see why. With all due respect to second-year pro Zach Mettenberger, the Titans are hardly set at the quarterback position.

Rivers enjoyed great success under Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt when Whisenhunt was San Diego's offensive coordinator in 2013. Rivers would also appear to be a much better fit for Whisenhunt's offense than Mariota, who isn't a prototypical "pocket" passer.

Add it all up, and it didn't take long for people to start connecting dots. The Chargers send Rivers to the Titans, where he would be closer to his in-laws (that's good, right?) and hometown of Decatur, Alabama, and the Titans send the No. 2 pick (Mariota) to the Chargers, who get their quarterback of the future.

Everyone's happy.

Acee wrote that it's an idea with some legs:

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The only real control the Chargers have with their quarterback is now, this offseason.

So – and this is difficult to think, let alone write – they need to trade Rivers.

If Monday night's dinner and Tuesday's workout in Eugene, Ore., are everything the Chargers expect, and they see in former Oregon star Marcus Mariota a possible franchise quarterback, they should do what they can to trade up and draft him.

The Chargers should get the No.2 pick from the Tennessee Titans, select Mariota, then take a running back with the No.17 pick. Start over in a big way.

"

Now, before we go any further, it's time for more cold water.

A deal involving a quarterback of Rivers' magnitude, at this point in his career, would be all but unprecedented. And according to what one AFC general manager told Adam Schein of the NFL's official website, this whole brouhaha is the product of the overactive imaginations borne of "silly season."

"There is no chance San Diego trades Rivers," the GM said to Schein. "Unless everyone with that team is flat-out lying. And that's not how you drum up a market. So if they are lying, then they are clueless. And I don't think that's the case."

Apparently, he's never met Cleveland's front office, but I digress.

Let's assume, just for kicks, that this rumor is more than just a rumor—that the Chargers are at least considering moving on from Rivers under their terms rather than his.

If that really is the case, then Tampa Bay general manager Jason Licht needs to pick up the phone and make like Monty Hall. Or Wayne Brady. Whatever.

To say the 2014 season didn't quite go according to plan for the Buccaneers is akin to saying that Robert E. Lee may not have thought Pickett's Charge all the way through. Sure, it's true—but it hardly begins to cover it.

Heading into the season, with the arrival of head coach Lovie Smith and veteran quarterback Josh McCown, many labeled the Buccaneers as dark-horse playoff contenders. ESPN's Herm Edwards went one better:

Oops.

Of course, we all know what happened. McCown was abysmal with the Buccaneers, and the team won all of two games. When the 2015 NFL draft kicks off on April 30, it will be the Bucs who go on the clock with the first overall pick.

For weeks, the consensus opinion has been that pick would be Winston, who played collegiately down the road at Florida State. Despite recent speculation (that's four) that Mariota is gaining steam inside the organization, ESPN's Adam Schefter insisted recently that Winston remains "the guy:"

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That is the feeling around the league, that you can book Jameis Winston to the Buccaneers short of something happening here in the next two-and-a-half weeks, which you never know with the draft process. Now Ron Jaworski, our ESPN analyst, said that he believes Marcus Mariota is going to Tampa, but the more people you speak to, that's a surprise. And if it went down that way that would be a huge surprise.

"

Here's the thing, though. Jameis Winston isn't Andrew Luck. He's no sure bet for NFL success.

No one is denying Winston's talent. The 6'4", 231-pounder enjoyed a wildly successful career in Tallahassee, losing all of one start in two seasons. Winston won both the Heisman Trophy and a national championship in 2013. He also appears much readier for the NFL than Mariota.

On the field isn't the problem, though.

Wilson's time at FSU was plagued with any number of off-field incidents, including shoplifting and a sexual assault allegation that has now morphed into a civil suit. Even Winston's attorney concedes that the youngster has some growing up to do:

Yes, Winston could be the next superstar under center in the NFL. Or he could be the next first-round mega-bust. The fact is, we just don't know.

We know what Philip Rivers can do. He's a five-time Pro Bowler who has topped 4,000 passing yards six times, including almost 4,300 yards last year. His career passer rating is over 95.

And with him under center in Tampa Bay, guess what? That contender talk would start heating up again.

The Carolina Panthers won the NFC South last year with a sterling record of 7-8-1. The New Orleans Saints blew up their offense in the offseason, trading wide receiver Kenny Stills and superstar tight end Jimmy Graham. And unless Dan Quinn smuggled half of Seattle's defense with him to Atlanta, the Falcons have a defense with more holes than the plot of a Transformers movie.

Team	W-L-T	Off. Rank	Def. Rank
Carolina Panthers	7-8-1	16	10
New Orleans Saints	7-9-0	1	31
Atlanta Falcons	6-10-0	8	32
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-14-0	30	25

A loaded division, it ain't.

Were Rivers to land in Tampa, we suddenly wouldn't be talking about Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks and Marques Colston. Nor would we be talking about Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White. Or Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin and whomever the Panthers line up on the other side.

No, Rivers, Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans would be the best pitch-and-catch trio in the division. Never mind second-year tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

The weapons in the passing game would be there.

Of course, that wasn't the Bucs' only problem in 2014. The offensive line ranked in the bottom four in the NFL in both run- and pass-blocking last year, per Football Outsiders. The team ranked 25th in total defense and 21st in sacks.

However, there's a potential solution for at least one of those issues in this deal as well. If the Chargers really want the 1.01 pick, it should cost more than just Rivers.

Yes, you read that right.

As Acee wrote, the general belief has been that a hypothetical trade would involve the Chargers keeping their own first-round pick (No. 17 overall). It's hard to find a parallel—quarterbacks such as Rivers just don't get dealt before they've already started to decline substantially—but if the history of trades involving veteran signal-callers is any indication, dealing a top-two pick straight up for Rivers could actually be overpaying.

Player	Year	Age	Traded To	Compensation
Drew Bledsoe	2002	30	BUF	1st-Rounder
Steve McNair	2006	33	BAL	4th-Rounder
Brett Favre	2008	38	NYJ	3rd-Rounder
Jay Cutler	2009	25	CHI	2 1st-Rounders, 3rd-Rounder, Kyle Orton
Donovan McNabb	2010	33	WAS	2nd-Rounder, 4th-Rounder
Carson Palmer	2011	31	OAK	1st-Rounder, Conditional Pick (1/2)
Alex Smith	2013	28	KC	2nd-Rounder, Conditional Pick (2/3)
Carson Palmer	2013	33	AZ	6th-Rounder, 7th-Round Swap

For the record, the deal that sent Carson Palmer to the Oakland Raiders in 2011 doesn't count. That trade was a knee-jerk deal made after Jason Campbell got hurt in the power vacuum created by Al Davis' death. It was horrible on so many levels that just looking at it gives me a migraine.

No, for the deal to make sense for Tampa, the Chargers would have to sweeten the pot. Whether it's Rivers and the No. 17 pick for the Bucs' first two picks (No. 1 and No. 34) or Rivers and the Chargers' second-rounder (No. 48) for No. 1, the Buccaneers shouldn't pull the trigger unless they get a top-50 pick back in return.

Hey, don't look at me. It's Jimmy Johnson's chart. Blame him.

There would be one more big sticking point to a potential trade. With Rivers' contract up after the 2015 season, no team is going to trade a turkey sandwich for the 33-year-old without his agreeing to a contract extension.

With that said, there are a couple of reasons why Rivers might be even more amenable to inking a deal with the Buccaneers over, say, Tennessee.

First, assuming that Rivers wants to win a few games and maybe make one last playoff run before he rides off into the sunset, he has a better shot at doing that in Tampa.

Yes, both teams have below-average offensive lines and defenses. But, as alluded to earlier, Rivers would have a bevy of weapons in the passing game in Tampa.

	Buccaneers	Titans
Running Back	Doug Martin	Bishop Sankey
Wide Receiver (1)	Vincent Jackson	Kendall Wright
Wide Receiver (2)	Mike Evans	Justin Hunter
Wide Receiver (3)	Louis Murphy	Harry Douglas
Tight End	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	Delanie Walker

In Tennessee? Um, yeah.

Also, the Buccaneers play in arguably the NFL's softest division. Meanwhile, the Titans play in the AFC Colts—sorry, South—where Andy's boys have the top of the standings in a hammerlock. And they aren't letting go any time soon.

There's one final reason why Rivers would likely be glad to sign a new deal with either the Titans or Bucs, and it results from something neither team has.

In both Tennessee and Florida, there's no state income tax. Nada. Zilch. That's opposed to California, the state with the highest rate of income tax in the country (13 percent in the top bracket).

Assuming an extension pays $20 million a season, that's over $2.5 million more in Rivers' pocket every season.

It's safe to assume he'd like that.

Now, some fans of the Buccaneers will no doubt lambaste me for being short-sighted, for being willing to pass on a 21-year-old quarterback on a cap-friendly rookie deal for a 33-year-old quarterback who will make upward of $20 million a season.

It's three or four years' worth of "yes" for a decade of "maybe." It's a gamble.

But it's a gamble worth taking—provided it's on Tampa's terms.

The thing is, if the Chargers really are that worried that Rivers would bolt (get it? Bolt? That's gold, Jerry! GOLD!), then the Buccaneers hold all the leverage. Especially if they keep talking up Mariota as a possibility at No. 1.

I'm sure that talk is 100 percent genuine and not at all designed to give the likes of Tom Telesco the vapors. Gotta be. NFL teams wouldn't lie. That would be wrong.

If the Chargers aren't willing to pay what Licht wants (I'd dig in for No. 17), then he can go ahead and draft Winston. Or Mariota. No harm done.

Odds are that all this speculation (Five! I get a free sub!) about potential trades involving Philip Rivers is just that. Pro Bowl quarterbacks just don't get traded until wheels have already starting falling off.

The Buccaneers will draft Winston, Mariota will go somewhere in the top 10 and Philip Rivers will play 2015 for the same team he's always played for, the Chargers.

However, if there's even a chance the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could land Rivers without paying through the nose to do so, then Licht needs to put his steel-toed boots on.

Because he has tires to kick.

Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks.