Ranking the Best 5-Man Units Heading into 2015 NBA Playoffs
Few things serve as better NBA playoff primers than a comprehensive ranking of the league's best Big Threes, and it just so happens a sweeping look at the most harrowing Big Fives is one of them.
"Big" might be too ambitious. Unlike terrific troikas, fantastic five-man units aren't predominant hotbeds for superstar talent. They're groups of five players, working in harmony, statistically demolishing everything and anything in their way.
These are those groups.
A few ground rules first. We're strictly looking at playoff-bound franchises. If a team isn't in the postseason picture at this writing, it's not eligible for inclusion. Oklahoma City Thunder fans have my condolences. Lineups that include players out for the season are ineligible as well. Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers fans also have my deepest sympathies.
Rankings will be determined objectively—as in personal grudges don't play. We'll look at the NBA's 250 most used five-man lineups, remove the lottery locks and lottery likelies and then multiply the remaining net ratings by the total minutes played, leaving us with a nicely weighted score to order accordingly.
To keep things fresh, we'll be setting a repetition limit. No squad can have more than two five-player convoys on this list. This is necessary finagling, otherwise you'd be scrolling through a list of reasons that explain why the Golden State Warriors rule the world.
Technicalities in mind, we journey onward with the sole purpose of finding out which five-player combinations bring home the most bacon.
Honorable Mentions
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These three lineups could have cracked the top 10, had all their components stayed healthy for the postseason. But alas, with players out through mid-June, the following trio comprises our honorable mentions list.
Atlanta Hawks
Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Dennis Schroder, Mike Scott, Thabo Sefolosha
Minutes Played: 79
Net Rating: Plus-42
This is an example of a small sample size being rewarded for extraordinary results. If not for Sefolosha's season-ending broken tibia, this group would sneak into the top 10 touting its sky-high offensive rating (123.5) and semi-inhuman defensive rating (81.5).
Houston Rockets
Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, James Harden, Dwight Howard, Donatas Motiejunas
Minutes Played: 360
Net Rating: Plus-11.5
Talk about your injury-afflicted five-man combinations. Donatas Motiejunas is out for the season and Patrick Beverley is likely in the same boat, leaving the Rockets to find a replacement for their most effective on-court arrangement.
Fear not, though, because a lineup of Jason Terry, Terrence Jones, Ariza, Harden and Howard is a plus-9.1 points per 100 possessions. Sure, these five have just 71 minutes of experience together. And yes, their defensive performance is abysmal (108.1). But, you know, plus-9.1!
OK, fine. Fear the playoffs a little bit.
Portland Trail Blazers
LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Damian Lillard, Robin Lopez, Wesley Matthews
Minutes Played: 629
Net Rating: Plus-10.7
Oof.
Losing Wesley Matthews is the difference between checking in at fourth and dwelling among the honorable mentions. That's a tough pull for a Blazers squad that, despite locking up the Western Conference's No. 4 seed, has forfeited home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Worse, Matthews' replacement is out as well. Arron Afflalo suffered a shoulder injury against the Warriors on April 9 and remains on the sidelines.
Get ready to see a whole lot of C.J. McCollum—provided his left ankle sprain isn't serious.
10. Matt Barnes, Jamal Crawford, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul
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Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Minutes Played: 222
Net Rating: Plus-14.4
Weighted Score: 3,196.8
Here's to non-surprises.
Matt Barnes, Jamal Crawford, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan and Chris Paul are the Clippers' third most used lineup. There's a chance they would be second if not for Crawford's 17-game calf-related absence. Luckily he's back, much to head coach Doc Rivers' raspy glee.
“It’s a relief,” he said, per the Long Beach Press-Telegram's Robert Morales. “I would say two weeks ago I was skeptical if he was going to make it back. And, fortunately, he’s gotten better and he’s back. So that’s a big relief for me, for sure.”
It's totally, wholly, not-at-all shocking to hear Rivers wax relief. The Clippers are a top-heavy team. They don't rely on their second unit to produce because they can't. They lean on the biggest names to get them through.
Four of their five most important players are included in this squadron—five of the six most important players if you consider Barnes indispensable because he's their lone competent small forward.
At any rate, these five will be a postseason staple. They don't defend particularly well, but they provide plenty of floor spacing. And they're averaging 118.9 points per 100 possessions—the third most of any five-player composition with at least 150 minutes of court time.
Offense is the Clippers' calling card, and with the defense still reeling in comparison to last season, this instantly becomes one of the most important combinations they'll field.
9. Tony Allen, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Courtney Lee, Zach Randolph
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Team: Memphis Grizzlies
Minutes Played: 460
Net Rating: Plus-7.4
Weighted Score: 3,404
Read this like it doubles as a "Get well soon" card for Mike Conley. And Tony Allen. And Marc Gasol.
Allen hasn't played since March 27 while tending to a sore hamstring, Conley has been sidelined since April 8 and Gasol left Memphis' loss to the Clippers on April 11 with ankle problems.
These need to be only temporary ailments for the Grizzlies' sake, otherwise they might as well skip the first round of the playoffs and start their inevitable pre-NBA Finals vacation even earlier.
When Courtney Lee, Zach Randolph, Gasol, Conley and Allen start, the Grizzlies win 72 percent of the time. This platoon is also notching 110.1 points per 100 possessions—without compromising the team's defensive integrity—easily exceeding Memphis' season average of 103.
Playing without Gasol is problematic for obvious reasons. He's an offensive lifeline, a premier defender and a top-three center. But the Grizzlies need Conley just as much, if only because he provides three-point shooting they don't otherwise have, which, in turn, makes life easier for Randolph and Gasol, as Bleacher Report's Dylan Murphy writes:
"Even if they can't make shots with consistency, the Grizzlies will need to at least fire some from the perimeter to keep opponents honest. If not, Randolph and Gasol will face constant pressure and have a tough time generating points.
And without Randolph and Gasol firing on all cylinders, the Grizzlies are doomed.
"
To have a shot at playing effective basketball on both ends of the floor, the Grizzlies need Gasol, Conley and, to a lesser extent, Allen. To make a legitimate title run, they need to be at full strength.
They need these five. All of them.
8. Ty Hansbrough, James Johnson, Pat Patterson, Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams
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Team: Toronto Raptors
Minutes Played: 229
Net Rating: Plus-17.7
Weighted Score: 4,053.3
Let's all promise not to laugh.
The Toronto Raptors' five-man combination of Tyler Hansbrough, James Johnson, Patrick Patterson, Greivis Vasquez and Lou Williams ranks in the 85th percentile of total minutes played among all quintuplets and is outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per 100 possessions—which, for the record, puts it in the 88th percentile of net-rating finishes.
Hey! You promised not to laugh. Toronto actually depends on this lineup. Only one other in-house crew has logged more minutes, and no other pack of players has appeared in more games (39). Not. A. Stinking. One.
We could sit here and pretend like we know how integral this lineup will be come playoff time. But let's save our vivid imaginations for the dog days of summer—as in the NBA's offseason—when we build forts out of pillows and folding chairs and pretend to be hiding from the king's army of gargoyles.
There's no predicting how important this group will be. Rotations shorten during the playoffs, and none of these guys are starters. At the same time, Kyle Lowry just returned from a back injury and isn't shooting well, DeMar DeRozan is just finding his shooting stroke, Jonas Valanciunas can be a turnstile and Williams is a Sixth Man of the Year candidate.
Ergo, the Raptors will have to—or rather, they should—rely on their second-stringers more than most. What remains to be seen is how much responsibility an unorthodox deployment like this one will shoulder.
7. Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat, Nene, Paul Pierce, John Wall
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Team: Washington Wizards
Minutes Played: 596
Net Rating: Plus-7.4
Weighted Score: 4,410.4
Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat, Nene, Paul Pierce and John Wall have started 34 games together, through which they're outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. They post the equivalent of a top-eight offense and top-two defense, and their net rating would rank second overall.
Somehow, the Wizards are a fine-but-not-fine 17-17 when this pentangle starts.
Right off the bat, you should be inclined to blame the bench. Martell Webster left his three-point touch in Narnia, Otto Porter needs summer league polish, the backup point guard situation is emphatically underwhelming and Rasual Butler is the team's second-string MVP.
Still, the Wizards bench ranks in the top half of offensive and defensive efficiency, per HoopsStats.com. So, what gives?
Second-half blues.
Washington's most important five-man posse has regressed significantly on the offensive end and is only a plus-1.1 since Feb. 1. The starting five is neither scoring enough nor giving the bench enough of a cushion.
Knowing this, maybe head coach Randy Wittman shouldn't overexert his starters. And while he's doling out incremental rest, he should also consider running a more inventive, NBA-level offensive system. Just saying.
6. Andrew Bogut, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson
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Team: Golden State Warriors
Minutes Played: 175
Net Rating: Plus-28.4
Weighted Score: 4,970
At long last, we have the Warriors, lineup overlords.
Finding things to gush over isn't the real challenge when looking at this five-player cluster. It's figuring out what's most impressive.
Is it the fact that Andrew Bogut, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala and Klay Thompson are outscoring opponents by 28.4 points per 100 possessions?
Is it—never mind, it's the net rating. Most definitely the net rating. It's better than the overall differentials of the Atlanta Hawks, San Antonio Spurs, Cleveland Cavaliers, Blazers and Clippers.
Combined (27.6).
Like pretty much every other five-headed patrol Golden State runs, this one is as balanced as they come. All five players pass and defend, three are shooting at least 35 percent from deep (Curry, Thompson, Iguodala), one can play and guard all five positions (Green) and one has the right to use "Crike!" in casual conversation (Bogut).
Scarier still, this is only the Warriors' third most used lineup. Downright frightening still, it doesn't even rank as their best combination. That one is in transit, readying itself to shatter the hopes and dreams and visions of trophy-toting parades for 29 other teams.
5. Tim Duncan, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, Tiago Splitter
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Team: San Antonio Spurs
Minutes Played: 265
Net Rating: Plus-23.6
Weighted Score: 6,254
Can y'all keep a secret? No? Well, that's cool too. The Spurs can't either.
They're coming, and they want anyone and everyone to know it.
Tim Duncan, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker and Tiago Splitter are notching in an absurd differential while collecting an above-average minutes total. That plus-23.6 ranks in the 95th percentile of our 250-deep sample, and their 265 minutes of burn is on the outskirts of the 90th percentile.
As the Spurs' preferred starting five, this unit is nothing short of dominant. The Spurs win 80 percent of the games Duncan, Green, Leonard, Parker and Splitter begin, which, when prorated, would give them the league's second-best record. And for any remaining skeptics, there's this:
| 116.8 | 93.2 | 23.6 | |
| 111.5 | 98.0 | 13.5 | |
| 122.7 | 91.8 | 30.9 |
Feel free to wait for the playoffs until passing judgment on the Spurs going full Spurs yet again.
The rest of us are just going to pencil them in for a conference finals appearance now.
4. DeMarre Carroll, Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague
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Team: Atlanta Hawks
Minutes Played: 898
Net Rating: Plus-7.4
Weighted Score: 6,645.2
Sustaining markedly high net ratings over long stretches of playing time isn't easy. Only three different five-man bills are maintaining one north of seven in 700-plus minutes of action. They hail from the Clippers, Warriors and Hawks.
This, on its own, is the story of the Hawks' season. They won't kill you with megastardom or noggin-numbing stat lines. They're consistent, deep and selfless. That's their modus operandi, and it's working—despite the lingering distrust emanating out of, well, everywhere.
James Herbert of CBS Sports will now grab the talking stick:
"Some doubt is understandable. Atlanta has been first-round fodder for the past three years. It lost in the second round the three before that, too. We don't quite know how these Hawks will perform in the playoffs, but it's not exactly fair to hold history against them. Last season, Horford was out with a torn pectoral muscle. For the previous 19 years, head coach Mike Budenholzer was in San Antonio. These are arguably the two most important pieces of Atlanta's puzzle. And when exactly did Cleveland prove it was playoff-ready?
"
Sixty wins (and counting) is no joke. A nine-game stronghold on the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed is no fluke.
Ending this season with a chance to rank inside the top six of offensive and defensive efficiency isn't a fleeting flash.
Just like this five-man battalion—which is 42-12 as a starting unit—these Hawks are for real regardless of how far they actually go.
3. Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith
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Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
Minutes Played: 474
Net Rating: Plus-18.1
Weighted Scores: 8,579.4
Midseason trades matter.
Not only do Timofey Mozgov and J.R. Smith have two of Cleveland's five-best net ratings, but they're members of the Cavaliers' deadliest five-man syndicate—the same one that's 28-4 in games it starts.
There's a little something for everyone here: Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving and LeBron James are all solid passers. There's a great mix of shot creation and spot-up shooting. James and Mozgov do a nice job covering up defensive breakdowns. And this clique excels whether it's on the break or running half-court sets.
Throw all this together, and you have an insane point differential derived from what would be league-best offensive and defensive ratings—as well as one of the primary reasons why Cleveland is now the Eastern Conference's team to beat.
Everything the Hawks have done is not to be overlooked, but the Cavaliers have a much better record since the trade deadline to go along with a lethal offense and improving defense. And it's Irving, James, Love, Mozgov and Smith who make up their most used unit not just during that time, but for the entire season.
Without this lineup, the Cavaliers would not have become not the title-seeking threats they now are.
2. Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson
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Team: Golden State Warriors
Minutes Played: 794
Net Rating: Plus-18.3
Weighted Score: 14,530.2
Hello again, Warriors.
Remove Iguodala from the previous five-player outfit and replace him with Harrison Barnes, and you have a couple of different things. First and foremost, you have Golden State's projected starting five, which it's 48-7 with on the season. That, for all you curious cats out there, equates to 72 victories over the course of an 82-game campaign.
Most of all, though, you have the NBA's second most dangerous five-man ensemble.
No need to fret over Barnes, Bogut, Curry, Green and Thompson not nabbing the top spot. If the Warriors weren't so deep, these five would almost assuredly overthrow the titan to be named momentarily. It's just that they are super deep.
If we didn't set a repetition limit of two for this good-feeling fest, the Warriors would actually own four of the top-10 arrangements—each of which has a net rating of 18 or better.
Professional party poopers will be quick to point out that this nucleus isn't yet playoff-proven. Who cares that these five have the highest net rating of any lineup to see at least 300 minutes of action? Or that this cabal headlines a Warriors contingent with the eighth-highest margin of victory in league history?
Frankly, we all should. The Cavaliers and Hawks are doing crazy things, the West is a brutal amalgam of contenders and powerhouses, and the Spurs are champions until proven otherwise. But the Warriors are, as of now, the best team in basketball—in large part because they have an indomitable, do-everything, five-man, 10-armed hulk like this one.
1. Matt Barnes, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul, J.J. Redick
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Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Minutes Played: 1,173
Net Rating: Plus-17.9
Weighted Score: 20,996.7
If there was a superlative for the NBA team "Most Likely to Have Its Starters Play All 48 Minutes of Every Playoff Game," the Clippers would win by a wide margin.
When they begin contests with J.J. Redick, Barnes, Griffin, Jordan and Paul, they win nearly 70 percent of the time. More to the point, they play like a two-way giant, retaining their top-ranked offense while defending with top-five fervor, allowing just 99.9 points per 100 possessions.
All of which is accompanied by an air of inexplicability. Redick is the lone difference from the previous, 10th-ranked aggregate. Replace Crawford with him, and you suddenly have a staunch defense. It's weird.
More than a positive reflection of Redick's defensive value, this is an indictment of the Clippers bench. There's a reason why the starting five has a 394-minute lead on total court time after all.
In addition to stalling completely on the offensive end, their second unit ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, according HoopsStats.com, patently reinforcing much of what we already know: The Clippers' postseason jaunt will last as long as their big names—these big names—allow.
Unless otherwise cited, all stats are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and accurate heading into games on April 13.
