Breaking Down How Boston Celtics Stack Up vs. Atlanta Hawks in 2015 NBA Playoffs
The NBA won’t have its playoff matchups set for another week. Until then, let’s take a shower in some good old-fashioned bracket speculation.
While the top of the Eastern Conference is already set in stone—the Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers are mathematically locked into the one and two seeds, respectively—four teams (the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets) are jousting for the last two seats at a very sticky table.
For the Celtics, this means—barring a titanic meltdown by the sixth-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, who only have a two-game cushion—they will face either Atlanta or Cleveland in the first round, should they qualify.
LeBron James by himself would make Boston look like a pile of dry leaves on a windy day. But the other opponent is intriguing for several reasons. The Celtics certainly wouldn’t be favored in a series against the Hawks, but they’d at least make things uniquely competitive for a 1 vs. 8 battle.
Here’s a look at how Boston can pull off what would be one of the biggest upsets in recent memory.
Going by record, the 59-19 Hawks are by far the best team in the Eastern Conference. A couple weeks after their 19-game win streak ended, they sent four players to the All-Star Game. All season long, they’ve boasted a top-10 unit on both ends of the floor.
But compared to the team that tornado’d through the NBA a few months ago, today’s Hawks aren’t playing as crisp and fundamentally flawless. Perhaps they’re understandably restless. Mike Budenholzer’s crew sped so far ahead of the pack that after realizing maximum energy wasn’t required to finish with a top seed, it lifted its foot off the gas and set the car in neutral.
Atlanta’s offense has remained an efficient killing machine since the All-Star break, but its defense—so reliant on continuity and trust—has dropped off just a tad. They’re still above league average, but Boston’s defense has been tougher.
Atlanta is either bored or has already peaked. It wouldn’t be smart to bet on the latter, but what’s not debatable is Atlanta’s vulnerability in the face of even the slightest health-related hiccup. In addition to the loss of Thabo Sefolosha, who’s reportedly out for the season after a scuffle with the New York Police Department earlier this week, Paul Millsap was held out of Atlanta’s last two games with a sprained shoulder. He’ll miss the next two as well.
Both injuries could disrupt a team that depends on cohesiveness over bottom-line talent. So far, Budenholzer has tried to substitute Millsap’s irreplaceable production by jamming second-year big man Mike Muscala into the starting lineup, dusting off a 36-year-old Elton Brand and ramping up Mike Scott’s minutes.
Atlanta won both those games, but it's smart enough to know that trend won’t keep up in the postseason. Additionally, Sefolosha isn’t the same player he once was, and his name doesn’t carry the same weight as Millsap’s, but the Hawks are 7.3 points per 100 possessions better on defense when he’s out there. They’ll miss him, too.
The Hawks can still beat the Celtics without Millsap and Sefolosha, but their absence could sharpen an underdog’s teeth.
Speaking of the underdog, it feels like Boston has shed its skin six or seven times since opening night. Flashy names have been replaced with gritty players, and somehow everything’s turned out for the better. This team is spunky, confident and would stand in as a carbon copy of Atlanta’s playing style and roster construction if it was nearly as skilled.
When Brad Stevens looks at the Hawks, he sees a more talented team thriving within the same unselfish culture and mechanized system he so desperately wants his own squad to recreate every time it steps on the court. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and the Hawks are everything the Celtics aspire to be. They space the floor, move without the ball and pass the rock likes it’s covered in lava.
On some nights, the Celtics emulate this mindset to near perfection. The ball doesn’t stick in any one player’s hand (Isaiah Thomas not included), and a noticeably high premium is placed on the three-point shot. Boston ranks 12th in points and 21st in field goal percentage, while Atlanta is 11th in points and third in field goal percentage. More efficient weapons equal a more efficient offense.
Despite being its best friend and worst enemy at the same time, the three-point line still gives Boston variance. Against a Hawks team that allowed the most three-point attempts in the league this season, the Celtics will constantly threaten on the perimeter.
Unfortunately, the Celtics can only take advantage of that one weakness. Defensively, neither Atlanta nor Boston has a traditional rim protector. Instead, both rely on tenacious individuals who stay in front of their man and keep the ball on the perimeter. Both teams force a ton of turnovers.
Aside from the 5’9” Thomas, the Celtics don’t have anybody who can consistently get to the rim and take advantage of Atlanta’s lacking size (if for nothing else, to get Millsap and Al Horford in foul trouble would be useful), but they can still generate open looks.
Atlanta is aggressive, trapping pick-and-rolls and depending on help defenders to tighten up the weak side. Its defense is good enough to win 60 regular season games, but it’s not perfect, especially against a team that aggressively swings it side to side and takes the first open shot it gets.
Brad Stevens has spent the year drilling unselfish, pass-first principles into his team—it's second in assist opportunities per game, fifth in points created by assists (per 48 minutes) and assists per game, per SportVU—and it could really turn the Hawks' hostile style against them, especially if Millsap isn’t 100 percent.
Over their last 15 games, the Celtics have the NBA’s eighth-best defense and the 10th highest net rating. This is a reflection of growing comfort levels between new players like Thomas, Jonas Jerebko and Jae Crowder and the pre-trade deadline leftovers.
The Celtics are willing to double in the post if necessary, but overhelping is not their preference. They like to stay home on shooters, and they have some of the most skilled individual perimeter defenders in the league to make life miserable for the other team’s top ball handlers.
Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart and Crowder will fight and claw for every inch against Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver. If the Celtics keep their turnover rate low and continue to showcase one of the best transition defenses in the league, they can erase Korver and Teague in the half court and force Al Horford to beat them in isolation.
All this is much easier said than done, and Horford is more than capable of averaging 25 points and 15 rebounds in this series and cleanly sweeping Boston off the board. But at the very least, Boston has something of a plan.
In the most recent meeting between these two teams, the Celtics escaped with a one-point victory—on the Wednesday before All-Star weekend—in a drowsy affair that featured way too much Marcus Thornton and Jared Sullinger and none of Thomas or Jerebko. Evan Turner nailed a floater at the buzzer to win it.
Before that, Rondo and Jeff Green were still on board for a four-point loss in early December, and the Celtics were blown out in the middle of January by 14 points. We obviously can’t extract too much information from these previous encounters, but a recipe exists for the Celtics to steal a few games and make this thing interesting.
Unfortunately, there’s no promise they'll actually play. But if they do, Atlanta won’t waltz into Round 2.
All statistics are courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.
Michael Pina is an NBA writer who lives in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.
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