The 5-Step Plan for Detroit Pistons to Return to the Playoffs Next Season
The Detroit Pistons will be sitting at home during the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season, and coach and team president Stan Van Gundy must figure out a way to end that streak in 2015-16.
A 5-23 start to the 2014-15 campaign and a 10-game losing streak between February and March doomed the Pistons' playoff chances—even in the lackluster Eastern Conference. But there were still enough positives to take away from the year that a 2016 postseason appearance is reasonable.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has taken big strides in his second season on the wing. Center Andre Drummond averaged 16.2 points, 14.8 rebounds and two blocks after the All-Star break. And Reggie Jackson has looked like an above-average starting point guard since being acquired from the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging 17.7 points, nine assists and nearly five rebounds over 23 games.
But Detroit has serious question marks at both forward spots. The Jackson trade came at the cost of starting small forward Kyle Singler, and Tayshaun Prince and Caron Butler are neither the short-term nor long-term answers at the 3.
At power forward, Greg Monroe has had arguably his best season from a raw statistical standpoint, averaging 16 points and 10.4 boards. But he is a defensive liability and lacks the shooting range to be a good fit next to Drummond. And as an unrestricted free agent this offseason, his time with the Pistons may have run its course.
With the returns of Paul George and Chris Bosh to the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat, respectively, and the growth of young teams like the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic, the East should be more competitive in 2015-16. But Van Gundy has a lottery pick and cap space at his disposal to improve the roster.
With the right series of moves, the Pistons can find themselves in the 2016 playoffs.
1. Draft a Two-Way Small Forward
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Van Gundy's first move of the offseason will likely be deciding which prospect to take with Detroit's fifth lottery pick in the past six drafts.
With building blocks in place at point guard, shooting guard and center, one of the two forward spots is the obvious position to target. Ideally, whoever gets drafted will be versatile and have the potential to be a difference-maker on both ends of the court.
With a big group of small forward prospects matching that description, Van Gundy should address the need at the 3. And with a pick that will likely fall between No. 6 and No. 9, high-caliber players will be available.
Croatian 20-year-old Mario Hezonja is already playing rotation minutes for one of Europe's top teams. Kansas freshman Kelly Oubre would fit alongside Jackson and Caldwell-Pope with his aggressiveness on both sides of the ball. The Pistons would likely pounce at the opportunity to draft Duke freshman Justise Winslow if he somehow slid down draft boards. And Arizona freshman Stanley Johnson is already built like a veteran at 6'7" and 237 pounds.
All four of these guys have the size and athleticism to be above-average players offensively and defensively. And at least one should still be on the board when the Pistons are on the clock (assuming they all declare for the draft). Van Gundy has the opportunity to draft a guy to potentially fill the small forward position for the next decade.
2. Re-Sign Reggie Jackson
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With a young small forward acquired via the draft, Van Gundy should turn his attention to locking up the franchise point guard.
Jackson detractors will point to the Pistons losing 10 of the first 11 games he played for them. But they've gone 7-5 since that stretch, and he has shown the ability to find his teammates and get his own shot when necessary.
His nine assists per game with the Pistons would rank fourth in the NBA if he kept that pace the entire season. The shot-selection problem that plagued him in OKC has mostly disappeared in Detroit; he is hitting 44 percent of his field goals and 34.7 percent of his treys.
Jackson's apparent chemistry with Caldwell-Pope is extra incentive to bring him back. The Pistons need the second-year shooting guard to take big steps if they're going to become a contender. Jackson goes out of his way to look for him.
In March, Caldwell-Pope averaged 14.3 points per game—the most of any month in his career. Not coincidentally, this was Jackson's first full month in Detroit. According to NBA.com, 24.5 percent of Jackson's passes went to Caldwell-Pope in March, the most of any teammate. It was also nearly 20 percent more (four percentage points) than Brandon Jennings passed to Caldwell-Pope during the season.
Jackson is still a raw player who can get out of control at times, and his track record as a starter is limited. But he has the size (6'3", 208 lbs), skill and athleticism to be an above-average starter at point guard, and he will turn just 25 this month. Re-signing him is not free of risk, but his high upside and fit with their young roster are worth the gamble.
3. Find a New Home for Brandon Jennings
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If Van Gundy can lock up Jackson, it will be in his best interests to find a team to pick up the final year of Jennings' contract.
The sixth-year point guard was playing the best basketball of his career before tearing his Achilles in January, which led to the Jackson trade. Had that injury never occurred, there's no telling where the Pistons would be now. But it did happen, and Van Gundy brought in his replacement before the trade deadline.
If Jennings remains on the roster, there's a good chance the two could share time on the court; Jackson is big enough to defend many 2s, and Jennings is a good enough shooter to be effective off the ball. But this team does not need to deal with the uncertainty of two starting point guards on the roster.
Jennings' coming off the bench (or vice versa) would lead to constant speculation on whether the right guy was with the starters. If the Pistons went through a rough stretch and Jackson struggled, the media speculation could weigh on the team.
And if Jennings was taking the backup point guard minutes, that would continue to block rookie Spencer Dinwiddie from getting on the court. He has shown some serious talent in small doses (20 points and eight assists against the Washington Wizards and a double-double against the Chicago Bulls). He won't get a shot to play with both Jackson and Jennings on the roster.
Coming off an Achilles injury and with an expiring contract, Jennings' trade value will not be at its highest this summer. But some team will be interested in taking a flier on a player of his talent level. And if the Pistons can use such a trade to fill another hole on the roster, then they shouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.
4. Let Greg Monroe Leave in Free Agency
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No decision will be tougher this summer for Van Gundy than whether to part ways with Monroe.
The 24-year-old big man is one of the best young players in the NBA at scoring with his back to the basket. He's one of just eight players this season to average at least 15 points and 10 rebounds. His size and skill set are rare, and he is young enough for people to expect improvement.
But with Drummond set to lock down the center position for the next decade, there simply isn't room for Monroe.
Offensively, Drummond is effectively anchored to the rim. Of all his field-goal attempts in 2014-15, 76.6 percent of them came from within five feet of the rim, per NBA.com. Nearly 98 percent of his attempts have come from within nine feet. To have space to operate, Drummond needs someone with some shooting range.
That's not Monroe.
Per NBA.com, from five to nine feet he hits 38.2 percent of his shots. From 10 to 14 feet that drops to 33.3 percent. Out to the 15-to-19-foot range, and Monroe knocks down 35.1 percent of his field goals. It is particularly disappointing because Monroe shot over 41 percent from both five to nine feet and 10 to 14 feet in 2013-14.
If Monroe were better defensively, perhaps the pairing could be salvageable. But he is slow-footed for a power forward, and he doesn't protect the rim like a center—averaging just half a block per game. The ideal pairing for Drummond is someone who can defend quick power forwards on the perimeter and step outside and knock down shots. Monroe fits neither of those descriptions.
Perhaps the Pistons can find a team that is willing to acquire Monroe through a sign-and-trade deal so they won't lose him for nothing. But even if they can't, re-signing Monroe to a maximum contract to avoid losing him is not the best use of their assets.
5. Sign a Top Young Power Forward
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By letting Monroe head elsewhere in free agency, the Pistons can use the money they save to aggressively go after a power forward who better fits their roster.
With Jackson, Caldwell-Pope, Drummond and one of the aforementioned rookies at small forward, Van Gundy has the makings of a young, athletic core with the potential to defend aggressively and run the court on offense.
Two restricted free agents make a lot of sense with that roster.
Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors and Tobias Harris of the Orlando Magic both have the size and athleticism to play small-ball power forward, yet they also would give the Pistons the option to play minutes at small forward when necessary.
Though restricted free agency allows their current teams to match any offer signed, Green and Harris may be available for the right price.
"The belief is that the Magic would match almost anything under $13 million a season," BasketballInsiders.com's Steve Kyler wrote. "The question is, will Harris get an offer sheet worth more than that number in July and will the Magic budge off their price range?"
"Draymond Green has a significant interest with pursuing an offer sheet with his hometown Detroit Pistons," Yahoo!'s Adrian Wojnarowski wrote in February. "Within the Warriors, there's a natural hesitation to pay Green more than the below-max extension of Klay Thompson that starts at $15.5 million next season, and Detroit has the motivation and space to complicate matters."
There's no guarantee that Detroit could get a deal done with either guy, but throwing a max-contract offer at one and forcing his team to match could net the Pistons an excellent young player. Harris averages over 17 points and six rebounds as a 22-year-old. Green is a front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year at age 25.
Either player would be a major coup for Van Gundy, giving him a young, two-way stud to add to his young core. A max contract may seem like a hefty sum, but the looming cap increases will mitigate the impact of any deal. Forcing the hand of the Magic or the Warriors may just cause them to blink.
And that would give the Pistons the guy they need to return to the postseason.
All records and statistics are accurate through April 9, 2015 and are from NBA.com, unless otherwise noted. All salary information is from ShamSports.com.
Jakub Rudnik covers the Detroit Pistons as a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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