Serge Ibaka in Familiar Role as Oklahoma City Thunder's Playoff X-Factor
With Kevin Durant shut down for the rest of the season, Serge Ibaka becomes the Oklahoma City Thunder's playoff X-factor. The club needs his elite defense in order to stand a chance of pulling off a huge upset against the Golden State Warriors.
Of course, that's assuming the Thunder still reach the postseason and Ibaka makes a healthy return following a procedure on his right knee that has kept him out since March 11. The initial timetable for the big man's recovery was four to six weeks, and nearly four weeks in, he has yet to practice with the team and isn't close to returning, per Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman.
Meanwhile, with Durant and Ibaka sidelined, Oklahoma City has lost its grip on the eighth seed to the New Orleans Pelicans. The combination of defensive lapses, late-game struggles and tough scheduling has led to OKC dropping its last four contests. As a result, the Pelicans are a half-game up on the Thunder for the final playoff spot with a week remaining in the season.
| Pelicans | at Grizzlies (4/8) | vs. Suns (4/10) | at Rockets (4/12) | at Timberwolves (4/13) | vs. Spurs (4/15) |
| Thunder | vs. Kings (4/10) | at Pacers (4/12) | vs. Trail Blazers (4/13) | at Timberwolves (4/15) | n/a |
Ibaka and the Thunder were in a similar situation during last year's playoffs, when a calf injury forced the Congo native to miss the first two games of the Western Conference Finals. The San Antonio Spurs took advantage of 25-year-old's absence, averaging 114.5 points per game and going up 2-0 in the series.
After initially being ruled out for the postseason, Ibaka miraculously returned in Game 3 and helped push the series to six games before the Thunder gracefully bowed out.
This time around, Scott Brooks' boys would face a Warriors team that is statistically more balanced, more talented and a bigger threat than last year's Spurs. Stephen Curry and Co. own the NBA's best record at 63-15 while placing first in defensive efficiency and second in offensive efficiency, per ESPN.com's Hollinger stats. The Warriors are the only team in the NBA to rank in the top five in both categories.
| Team | Year | Points Per Game (Rank) | Offensive Efficiency (Rank) | Defensive Efficiency (Rank) |
| Warriors | 2014-15 | 109.7 (1st) | 109.3 (2nd) | 97.8 (1st) |
| Spurs | 2013-14 | 105.4 (6th) | 108.2 (4th) | 100.1 (4th) |
Ibaka has made strides as a scorer and a floor-spacing big man, averaging 14.3 points and shooting 37.6 percent from behind the arc. His 7.8 boards per game have played a role in Oklahoma City's placement as the top rebounding team in the NBA with 47.5 rebounds per game. He has a defensive rebounding mark of 18.1 percent and a total rebounding clip of 12.7 percent, both ranking in the top five among current players on the Thunder roster, per Basketball-Reference.com.
However, the Thunder can survive in the playoffs without his offensive contributions. The same can't be said on the defensive end, where the team has floundered without its best rim protector.
The defensive void left by Ibaka's injury is evident in the numbers.
Over the 11 games between the All-Star break and The Serge Protector's last time on the court, the Thunder forked over 105.5 points per game. In the 14 games since, they've given up 109.1 points, including two games where they allowed at least 130 points. Brutal.
Furthermore, without Ibaka on the floor, Oklahoma City doesn't have a presence in the paint that makes opposing scorers think twice about attacking the basket. Ibaka has led the league in total blocks the past four seasons, and his 155 rejections this season are still fourth best in the NBA despite being out since early March and missing 14 games this year.
Ibaka's 2.4 blocks per game rank above top defenders such as DeAndre Jordan and Rudy Gobert.
The team's litany of injuries has led to some awkward lineups, which has forced Ibaka to compensate for a lot of defensive mistakes.
"He's a big presence at the rim," rookie Mitch McGary said of Ibaka, per Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman. "Contests a lot. Blocks a lot of shots. Overall disrupts their flow on offense."
With Ibaka and Nick Collison sidelined, the Thunder are forced to go with a triumvirate of Enes Kanter, Steven Adams and McGary inside. As evidenced by the chart below, Adams is the only one of the three who seems to put up a fight defensively.
| Name | Overall | Normal (Differential) | Less Than Six Feet | Normal (Differential) | Less than 10 Feet | Normal (Differential) |
| Adams | 43.5 | 47.5 (-4.0) | 53.7 | 60.2 (-6.5) | 48.8 | 55 (-6.2) |
| Kanter | 50.6 | 47.3 (+3.3) | 61.3 | 60.2 (+1.1) | 56.3 | 55.3 (+1.0) |
| McGary | 51.2 | 46.4 (+4.8) | 65.9 | 58.9 (+7.0) | 66.4 | 55 (+11.4) |
| Ibaka | 40.7 | 46.4 (-5.7) | 45.4 | 59.7 (-14.2) | 44.6 | 54.8 (-10.1) |
While Kanter's offense has been a welcome addition, it is offset by his defensive shortcomings. The Thunder post a net rating of minus-1.4 when he's on the court and 4.1 when he's off of it, per NBA.com/Stats, which means OKC is actually better with its best post scorer on the bench.
The only Thunder big man with a negative net rating when he's off the court? Serge Ibaka.
| Name | Net Rating (On) | Net Rating (Off) | Plus/Minus (On) | Plus/Minus (Off) |
| Adams | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 2.3 |
| Kanter | -1.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| McGary | 4.3 | 1.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 |
| Ibaka | 3.6 | -1.4 | 3.7 | 0.1 |
For visual proof of Ibaka's defensive impact, take a look at these two clips.
This is how Ibaka challenges opposing scorers in the paint:
Now, compare that to Kanter's brand of defense:
The difference is pretty galling, and it's the main reason why Ibaka is the Thunder's X-factor. If he's patrolling the paint, he can compensate for any mistakes by being the team's safety net, as Shawn Woods of ThunderousIntentions.com points out.
"Serge is one of the most unique players in the league due to his ability to be paired with any big man in the league. Have a shot blocker that isn’t effective more than five feet from the rim? No problem. Need a rim protector to help hide your big man that can’t play a lick of defense? Got it. Need a big man to help space the floor for your guards that can’t shoot? He can do that too.
"
If Ibaka can't make it back for the playoffs or is less than 100 percent when he's on the floor, the Thunder's next best option is Adams. The problem there is Adams, while a tough post defender, can't seem to stay out of foul trouble. The big Kiwi has been whistled at least four times in 12 of his last 15 games and has fouled out three times. He's averaging 4.6 fouls per 36 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Adams' 214 total personal fouls are the 14th most in the NBA, and his 3.2 hacks per game rank eighth in all of basketball. With no Adams or Ibaka on the floor, you will see more defense similar to what is on display in the second clip, and that won't bode well against a Warriors team scoring a league-best 109.6 points per game.
For the first time since the 2009-10 season, the Oklahoma City Thunder will enter the postseason as huge underdogs—if they make it. The loss of Kevin Durant tragically lowers the ceiling of a talented team with championship potential. The only saving grace for the Thunder this season is the potential return of Serge Ibaka, if they last long enough to even allow a return.
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