NBA Playoff Standings 2015: Updated Bracket, Matchups That Will Change Picture
The NBA playoffs may start in 11 days, but it's anyone's best guess as to which matchups will actually occur. Between tight eighth-seed and home-court races in both conferences, the 16-team postseason picture figures to change multiple times over the remainder of the regular season.
The league caught a nice scheduling break with massive dockets over the next three days. The typically light Tuesday schedule moved to Monday because of the NCAA championship game, as Wednesday and Friday will see a combined 25 games on the schedule.
Looking at the current postseason standings and projected bracket via NBA.com, let's dive into a few of the most impactful games over the next few days that could most significantly alter this current snapshot.
| 1. Atlanta Hawks (57-19) | 1. Golden State Warriors (63-14) |
| 2. Cleveland Cavaliers (50-27); 7.5 GB | 2. Houston Rockets (53-24); 10 GB |
| 3. Chicago Bulls (46-31); 11.5 GB | 3. Memphis Grizzlies (52-25); 11 GB |
| 4. Toronto Raptors (45-32); 12.5 GB | 4. Portland Trail Blazers (50-27); 13 GB |
| 5. Washington Wizards (44-33); 13.5 GB | 5. Los Angeles Clippers (52-26); 11.5 GB |
| 6. Milwaukee Bucks (38-39); 19.5 GB | 6. San Antonio Spurs (51-26); 12 GB |
| 7. Brooklyn Nets (36-41); 21.5 GB | 7. Dallas Mavericks (46-31); 17 GB |
| 8. Boston Celtics (35-42); 22.5 GB | 8. Oklahoma City Thunder (42-35); 21 GB |
| 9. Indiana Pacers (34-43); 23.5 GB | 9. New Orleans Pelicans (41-35); 21.5 GB |
| 10. Miami Heat (34-43); 23.5 GB | 10. Phoenix Suns (39-38); 24 GB |
| 11. Charlotte Hornets (33-43); 24 GB |
Tuesday: Spurs at Thunder
After appearing to pull away for a postseason spot, the Oklahoma City Thunder have slumped since the debilitating news of Kevin Durant's season-ending surgery. OKC has dropped five of its past six games, and coupled with a hot streak from the New Orleans Pelicans, it sits just a half-game up in the race for the West's eighth seed.
Russell Westbrook is doing his best Kobe Bryant circa 2007 impression to keep the Thunder afloat. According to Basketball-Reference.com, Westbrook's usage rate ballooned to an obscene 39.3 percent in March, his highest number since Durant was last out in December. Consequently, his rate and gross statistics are among the best the NBA has seen in decades, per NBA on ESPN:
However, injuries to Durant, Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison have robbed OKC of much of its signature length on defense. That could be particularly problematic against the San Antonio Spurs, who are finally operating at peak efficiency, having won 17 of their past 20 games. After a prolonged early-season lull, Kawhi Leonard's post-All Star break surge has fueled the defending champs' streak, as noted by SB Nation's Paul Flannery:
The Spurs are remarkably within a half-game of home-court advantage in the West, and a reasonable two games behind the Houston Rockets for the conference's second seed. San Antonio probably won't scale that high, but after floundering as the No. 7 seed for most of the season, the Spurs may no longer be significant underdogs against the likes of Golden State and Houston.
In previous seasons, Oklahoma City's length and athleticism on defense has overwhelmed the Spurs' signature ball movement on offense. But that cheat code has long surpassed the Thunder this year, and even at Chesapeake Energy Arena, it's hard not to imagine these two teams continuing on their current paths.
Wednesday: Pelicans at Grizzlies
Even if the Thunder drop Tuesday's decision, however, Oklahoma City still probably holds the upper hand in the race for the eighth seed. The Pelicans do hold the season tiebreaker, but they also face the clearly tougher path down the stretch:
| Apr. 7 - vs. Spurs | Apr. 7 - vs. Warriors |
| Apr. 10 - vs. Kings | Apr. 8 - @ Grizzlies |
| Apr. 12 - @ Pacers | Apr. 10 - vs. Suns |
| Apr. 13 - vs. Blazers | Apr. 12 - @ Rockets |
| Apr. 15 - @ Timberwolves | Apr. 13 - @ Timberwolves |
| Apr. 15 - vs. Spurs |
Thus, it's no surprise that ESPN's Hollinger Playoff Odds give the Pelicans just a 38.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason at the time of this writing. Given how tight the aforementioned race for a top-four seed is in the West, it's unlikely that teams like the Rockets or Spurs will rest their starters when New Orleans plays them.
Speaking of which, the Grizzlies had the No. 2 seed on lockdown for nearly the entire season. However, a recent malaise has seen Memphis split its last 10 games, and a .500 stretch simply won't get it done at the top of the West. The Grizzlies now need to hold off the Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers to simply retain home court in the first round, as they sit just one game clear of the sixth seed.
This will be a throwback contest in that both are half-court offenses centered around the post game. The Grizz and Pelicans rank 26th and 27th in pace, respectively, so look for the premier Anthony Davis vs. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph matchup in the frontcourt to decide this outcome.
Thursday: Bulls at Heat
Whereas the West has been a 10-team bloodbath all season (until Phoenix's recent demise), the "race" for the final two playoff slots in the East has resembled more of a crawl. The Miami Heat were once atop the morass, holding down the No. 7 seed for much of the post-All Star break stretch, but have lost four straight and seven out of nine to fall to 10th in the standings.
The five teams competing for those two spots have inadvertently ended up in a sort of round-robin due to scheduling quirks, and the Heat's most recent defeat at Indiana was a crippling one. Miami does hold tiebreakers over current postseason squads Brooklyn and Boston, but Sunday's loss gave the Pacers that head-to-head tiebreaker, a potentially critical factor given Paul George's return.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls have again doggedly trudged through a season without much from Derrick Rose. The former MVP is due to return this week, but in actuality, the Bulls may not want to retain the No. 3 seed from the Toronto Raptors, given that it would set up a second-round matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Of course, Tom Thibodeau has never backed down from a LeBron James challenge, although it's worth noting that the Bulls have lost to a LeBron-led team in three of the past five postseasons. Still, sitting a game up on the Raps, Chicago could move closer toward a first-round date in which they would be heavily favored over Milwaukee or Brooklyn, while also dealing LeBron's former team another blow to their postseason aspirations.
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