5 Sneaky Good 'Plan B' Options for 2015 NBA Free Agency
The NBA offseason is a time for unbridled optimism.
Until reality sets in.
While a fortunate few teams might aim for the stars and actually come away with one, most must settle to some extent. When multiple clubs chase the same target, there's bound to be some disappointment.
That's why planning ahead is such a critical piece of the process. There have to be fallback options in case Plan A doesn't come to fruition.
There's nothing wrong with plotting an all-out pursuit of Marc Gasol or LaMarcus Aldridge. Or hoping against hope that an offer sheet for Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green goes unmatched by their current clubs.
But when those options evaporate, teams must move quickly to the next tier of targets. There they'll find five players whose reputations lag behind their production and, as a result, should keep their prices at reasonable rates.
Signing one won't change a franchise's fortune but could be the final boost that helps it reach the next level.
DeMarre Carroll, SF, Atlanta Hawks
1 of 5
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $2.5 million
Notable Numbers: 12.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 39.2 3P%, 15.5 PER
Players are going to be paid a ton of money this summer for doing a lot of the same things Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll does: filling all categories on the stat sheet, defending multiple positions and shredding the net from distance.
His offensive numbers are personal bests nearly across the board. He's never before averaged this many points or connected on a higher percentage of his attempts from the field (48.2) and long range (39.2).
Those aren't jaw-dropping statistics by any stretch, but they don't have to be. The 28-year-old does his best work on the opposite end of the floor, where impact is harder to measure.
Considering the caliber of Carroll's defensive assignments, the fact he holds opposing small forwards to a subpar 13.8 player efficiency rating (via 82games.com) is extremely impressive. He's tenacious on the ball and a pest away from it.
"One of the things that makes him great is he brings it every night," Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer said, per Fox Sports. "So he gets the best player every night. It's a big part of our defensive identity."
Potential suitors must recognize Carroll's ability to set the defensive tone. Those sharp enough to see he's a versatile contributor at the opposite end could keep him within arm's reach as a valuable under-the-radar target.
Danny Green, SG, San Antonio Spurs
2 of 5
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $4.0 million
Notable Numbers: 11.9 points, 1.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, 16.6 PER
Admittedly, there's some temptation to wonder whether San Antonio Spurs swingman Danny Green is the product of an offensive system that caters perfectly to his strengths.
Having a selfless playmaker like Tony Parker obviously helps. Ditto for playing off Tim Duncan's gravitational game in the low post. And for a perimeter marksman like Green, things can't get much better than suiting up for a squad that routinely passes up good shots for great ones.
But is Green a beneficiary of San Antonio's system or one of the key reasons it works? Answering in the former could cost teams the chance to add a player who excels in many different areas.
"He does a lot of things that he's underrated for," Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said, per Jonathan Jones of The Charlotte Observer. "He has some of the best hands defensively in this game. He can guard multiple positions, he rebounds well. And then as a shooter, he's an elite spacer, but he knows how to move into open spots."
Still not convinced that Green is worthy of a significant final commitment? What if I told you he's one of only seven players averaging at least five three-point attempts per game and connecting on more than 40 percent of those shots (minimum 40 games played)? Or that he's one of only six averaging at least one steal and one block a night?
Good luck finding a team that couldn't use someone who is an elite shooter and defender.
Tobias Harris, SF, Orlando Magic
3 of 5
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $2.5 million
Notable Numbers: 17.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 46.3 FG%, 16.5 PER
Expect Orlando Magic swingman Tobias Harris to have one of the most volatile markets in free agency.
He boasts some drool-worthy numbers, particularly once his age (22) is added to the equation. He's quick enough to speed around plodding power forwards and strong enough to outmuscle defenders in the post. He has never taken this many triples (3.4 per game) or converted them at a higher percentage (36.1) and can be a handful off the dribble.
But he can be a bit of a ball-stopper (career 1.8 assists per 36 minutes). And despite playing with a good defensive motor, his effort rarely produces positive results on that side of the ball.
In the basketball world's eyes, Harris is the proverbial riddle wrapped inside an enigma.
"On one hand he's shown limitations in his game, excelling in certain areas and struggling in others that are arguably more important," wrote Bleacher Report's Michael Pina. "On the other, for someone so young to put up such impressive numbers, you can only shake your head."
That head-shaking is the reason Harris is on this list. He might not have All-Star potential, but he's an immensely talented scorer. He can find shots within the flow of an offense or create them on his own. He's a walking mismatch whose versatility makes him easy to plug into multiple systems.
He has his flaws, but those could knock his market down lower than it should be. If the Magic balk at matching his offer, he could give a club consistent offense for the next decade-plus.
Khris Middleton, SG, Milwaukee Bucks
4 of 5
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2014-15 Salary: $915,243
Notable Numbers: 13.1 points, 1.5 steals, 41.3 3P%, 15.4 PER
Milwaukee Bucks swingman Khris Middleton might be the worst-kept secret in basketball. It's hard to hide a player who has put up 17.1 points with a .442/.398/.879 shooting line and 3.1 assists a night since the All-Star break.
Especially when that player owns a 4.05 defensive real plus-minus, per ESPN.com, which ranks eighth overall and third among wings.
The Bucks have needed a leader since sending out then-leading scorer Brandon Knight in a three-team deadline deal that brought Michael Carter-Williams to Milwaukee. Middleton has answered that call on both ends of the floor.
"What we've asked him to do defensively is guard the best perimeter guy. Then offensively, we've asked him to score the ball, be looking for shots or making plays," Bucks coach Jason Kidd said, per Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "... He's done everything we've asked, and you can see it in his play."
Between his buttery three-point stroke and long, athletic frame (6'7" with a 6'10.75" wingspan), Middleton has the makings of a three-and-D dynamo. But that label overlooks his ability to score points in the post and set up scoring chances for his teammates.
He's playing like a star; that's a welcome sight for the team that can snag him this summer without having to pay him like one.
Robin Lopez, C, Portland Trail Blazers
5 of 5
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2014-15 Salary: $5.3 million
Notable Numbers: 9.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 16.0 PER
When Portland Trail Blazers center Robin Lopez isn't terrorizing NBA mascots, he's having a similar impact on opposing bigs. A matchup with the high-motor 7-footer is almost always a long night.
"He's a big part of this offense and this team and our identity," Blazers All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge said, per ESPN. "He does so many things that people don't notice. He's a hard worker, the guy that does all the things that nobody else really does in the first unit."
Lopez proves the value of elbow grease. He's not the most talented NBA center—or even the most talented center in his family—but he's a smart player who gives maximum effort at all times.
And he's more skilled than I probably just made him sound.
He has a top-10 offensive rebounding percentage for the second consecutive season. Opponents shoot a lower percentage at the rim against him (47.1) than they do against DeAndre Jordan (48.5), Anthony Davis (48.5) and Marc Gasol (49.5). Lopez is also one of the league's better pick-and-roll screeners (1.14 points per possession, 82.1 percentile).
He has a soft touch from mid-range and, unlike a lot of his low-post peers, a reliable stroke from the charity stripe (career 75.5 free-throw percentage).
As a 27-year-old complementary player, he isn't a building block. But he's a solid interior presence on both ends and a good get for any team needing to bolster its frontcourt.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
