Pittsburgh Pirates: 2015 Season Preview for Pitchers with Predictions
The Pittsburgh Pirates finished with an 88-72 record in 2014 before getting bounced out of the playoffs in the National League Wild Card Game by the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants.
This season, the Pirates are primed for another postseason run, as key additions on offense and pitching have compensated for the loss of star catcher Russell Martin and starting pitcher Edinson Volquez.
Do the Pirates have the ability to win the division and/or make a deep run into the postseason this season? Buster Olney of ESPN thinks so, according to his Twitter account.
Let's take a look at the Pirates regulars heading into the 2015 Major League Baseball regular season and what we can expect from them.
*All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Francisco Liriano, SP
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The Pirates were fortunate to have the ability to bring ace Francisco Liriano back on a three-year deal this offseason.
Liriano has undoubtedly been the Pirates' No. 1 starter over the last two seasons, pitching to a 3.20 ERA and a 23-18 record in 55 starts. His best season as a member of the organization came in 2013, when he finished ninth in the National League Cy Young Award race with a 16-8 record and a 3.02 ERA in 26 starts.
After a shaky start to last season, when he was just 1-7 with a 4.72 ERA at the All-Star break, Liriano finished strong and helped guide the Pirates to their second straight postseason appearance with a 6-3 record and 2.20 ERA in the second half of the season.
A nine-year veteran, Liriano has revitalized his career in Pittsburgh, and when he is on his game, the 31-year-old is one of the best pitchers in the National League.
Prediction: 14-9/3.45 ERA/1.250 WHIP
Gerrit Cole, SP
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Gerrit Cole was one of the Pirates' most highly coveted prospects a few years ago, as the righty was selected by Pittsburgh with the first overall pick in the 2011 MLB amateur draft.
Cole made his major league debut just two years later, going 10-7 with a 3.22 ERA in 19 starts. His record improved to 11-5 in 2014 while his ERA increased to 3.65 in 22 starts.
Still, he put up respectable numbers for a player in only his second big league season.
If Cole remains healthy in 2015, there is no reason he cannot put up stellar numbers. This is a kid who is on the horizon of achieving lasting success in the majors.
Prediction: 14-6/3.37 ERA/1.200 WHIP
A.J. Burnett, SP
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After struggling mightily as a member of the New York Yankees, A.J. Burnett had one of the best seasons of his career with the Pirates in 2012, going 16-10 with a 3.51 ERA in 31 starts.
Statistically speaking, he actually pitched even better in 2013 with a 3.30 ERA, although his 10-11 record did not reflect that.
He would leave Pittsburgh to sign a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2014. There, things simply did not go as planned for Burnett, who lost a single-season career-high 18 games with a 1.409 WHIP.
Burnett, who will enter his 17th and final season, has been hard to predict throughout his career. At times, he has looked like a Cy Young-caliber star, such as in 2008 when he won 18 games as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. At others, such as last year and in three seasons as a member of the Yankees when he was 34-35 with a 4.79 ERA, he has looked like a player who should consider hanging up his spikes.
Two things about Burnett we do know, however, is that he clearly is comfortable pitching for this organization (which his success has shown), and he is reliable as far as making his starts goes. The last time Burnett failed to make at least 30 starts in a season was 2007, when he won 10 games in 25 starts for the Blue Jays.
Don't expect Burnett to be nearly as inefficient as he was last season for the Phillies, when he was simply in a losing atmosphere.
Prediction: 10-12/3.95 ERA/ 1.300 WHIP
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Vance Worley, SP
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The case of Vance Worley is one of the most interesting over the last year for the Pirates.
Worley pitched tremendously in 18 games for the Pirates in 2014, going 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.211 WHIP. While his 112 hits allowed in 110.2 innings last season is a cause for concern over a full season, Worley managed to work in and out of jams.
The 27-year-old has spent the majority of his career in the minors. In fact, the greatest number of games he has appeared in during a single season at the big league level was 25 back in 2011, when he was a member of the Phillies organization.
Worley has had a pretty shaky spring thus far, allowing 10 hits (two of them homers) and five earned runs in 11.0 innings.
It will be interesting to see if he can make the jump to pitching a full season for the Pirates in 2015, but given his past statistics, 25 starts is a reasonable prediction for Worley.
Prediction: 10-7/3.65 ERA/1.350 WHIP
Jeff Locke, SP
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Jeff Locke pitched in his first full season in 2013 as a member of the Pirates, and he was turning heads at every ballpark he pitched.
Locke made the All-Star team that year, as his 8-2 record and 2.15 ERA were among the best in Major League Baseball.
His second half of the season was completely different, however, as Locke was bothered by a back injury and went 2-5 with a 6.12 ERA in 12 starts post-All-Star break. Still, his 10-7 overall record in 30 starts showed that he has a promising future.
Last season, Locke went 7-6 in just 21 starts with a 3.91 ERA. Which side of Locke will we see in 2015? On one hand, he could make 30 starts again and help the Pirates significantly. On the other, he could still make most of his starts and be mediocre, as he was in the second half of 2013.
Locke has not had a pleasant time trying to get batters out this spring, allowing eight earned runs in as many innings pitched. He is 1-2 with a 9.00 ERA.
Prediction: 11-9/3.85 ERA/1.300 WHIP
Charlie Morton, SP
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Veteran Charlie Morton is coming off a 2014 season in which he also set a career high for single-season losses with 12 for the Pirates.
Over seven big league seasons (six of them with the Pirates), Morton is 36-61 with a 4.50 ERA, certainly nothing to write home about. However, while he lost 12 games last season, he pitched to a respectable 3.72 ERA in 26 games before ending his season early to undergo hip surgery.
The most games Morton has ever won in a single season is 10, which he did back in 2011 when he went 10-10 in 29 games for the Pirates.
Morton has struggled this spring as well, and although we cannot base predictions solely on what a pitcher does in spring training, Morton's recent surgery and his past tendencies on the mound are causes for concern.
Prediction: 6-9/4.00 ERA/1.340 WHIP
Mark Melancon, CL
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Closer Mark Melancon was the prize acquisition when the Pirates sent Joel Hanrahan and Brock Holt to the Boston Red Sox.
Melancon made the National League All-Star Team in 2013, when he was primarily the setup man to closer Jason Grilli. Even with Grilli as the primary closer, Melancon collected 18 saves that season and pitched to a ridiculous 1.39 ERA in 72 appearances.
Last season, Melancon matched his 2013 total of 72 games pitched, and while his ERA increased to a still-devastating 1.90, he successfully converted on 33 save attempts.
The soon-to-be 30-year-old is becoming one of the best closers in all of baseball, and in 2015 we should expect his numbers to continue to improve.
Prediction: 3-2/2.11 ERA/40 SV/.979 WHIP
Tony Watson, RP
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Lefty reliever Tony Watson had arguably one of the best seasons ever by a relief pitcher in 2014, going 10-2 in 78 games with an ERA of just 1.63.
The 29-year-old has improved drastically year-by-year over the last three seasons. In 2012, Watson owned a 3.38 ERA in 68 appearances before lowering his ERA to 2.39 in 67 games in 2013.
The combination at the back end of the bullpen of Watson and Melancon is also arguably one of the best one-two punches in all of baseball. Because of them, opponents ought to hope they can get out to an early lead before having to face the dynamic duo late in games.
Prediction: 5-2/1.90 ERA/91 SO/.964 WHIP
Jared Hughes, RP
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Having a dynamic duo at the back end of the bullpen is enough to instill fear into opposing lineups. The Pirates, much like the 2014 American League champion Kansas City Royals, have a three-headed monster in their bullpen.
Jared Hughes is entering his fifth major league season and is coming off a breakout 2014 campaign in which he owned a 1.96 ERA in 63 games for the Pirates.
Expect Hughes to thrive in his role as the seventh-inning guy for the Pirates in 2015, much like he did last season.
Prediction: 3-3/2.05 ERA/1.111 WHIP
Antonio Bastardo, RP
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The Pirates may have found a diamond in the rough when they acquired Antonio Bastardo from the Phillies in December.
A six-year veteran, Bastardo has had two seasons in which he has pitched to an ERA south of 3.00. The last time he did that was in 2013, when he held a 2.32 ERA in 48 appearances for Philadelphia.
The 29-year-old reliever allowed 3.94 runs per nine innings last season, although his 11.4 strikeout-per-nine average was the best he has totaled since 2012.
According to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Bastardo is hungry to bounce back in 2015, saying, "My goal was to keep it (his ERA) under 3.00."
Prediction: 2-3/2.97 ERA/1.198 WHIP
Stolmy Pimentel, RP
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After showing effectiveness in a limited role in 2013, Stolmy Pimentel had a rough go-around in his second season with the Pirates.
Pimentel was 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA in 20 appearances for the Pirates in 2014, and this spring, it does not look like he is improving. Pimentel has allowed six earned runs on 10 hits in 8.0 innings pitched.
Prediction: 1-2/4.03 ERA/1.420 WHIP, DFA during the season
John Holdzkom, RP
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John Holdzkom impressed the Pirates organization in 2014, allowing just two earned runs in 9.0 innings pitched.
The 27-year-old New Zealand native has a made a case for earning a spot on the Opening Day roster for the Pirates this spring, owning a 3.86 ERA with eight strikeouts in 7.0 innings pitched.
If he does make the 25-man roster and pitches most or all of the season in the majors, expect Pittsburgh to give Holdzkom a lot of appearances during the middle of games.
Prediction: 4-2/2.85 ERA/1.012 WHIP
Arquimedes Caminero, RP
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Arquimedes Caminero is another reliever who is having a great spring and making a serious case for a roster spot.
After spending parts of the last two seasons with the Miami Marlins, Caminero has allowed just two earned runs in 10.0 innings pitched. Both of those runs came on homers.
Look for 2015 to be a potential breakout season for Caminero, who owns a career strikeout-per-nine average of 9.2.
Prediction: 3-1/2.69 ERA/1.200 ERA
Bobby LaFromboise, RP
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Bobby LaFromboise pitched in six games for the Pirates in 2014, all of them in a critical stretch of September games in which his team was chasing the playoffs.
The lefty reliever allowed one earned run and struck out four in 3.1 innings pitched during that stretch.
In 2013, his first major league season, LaFromboise allowed seven earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched, but he still struck out an impressive 11 batters.
There may not be much room for him to make a ton of appearances, as the Pirates have two lefty relievers ahead of him (Watson and Bastardo), but when he does get the call, expect LaFromboise to do a mediocre job.
Prediction: 1-1/3.23 ERA/1.115 WHIP
Radhames Liz, RP
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For a team that is loaded with weapons in its bullpen, the signing of Radhames Liz during this offseason was a bit of a head-scratcher.
Liz has not pitched in the majors since 2009, when he was a member of the Baltimore Orioles. He gave up 10 earned runs in just 1.1 innings pitched that year.
After spending the last five seasons pitching in the minors and in the Korean Baseball Organization, the 31-year-old is looking for a career rebirth with the Pirates.
Surprisingly, Liz has looked great this spring, allowing just two earned runs in 10.0 innings pitched. Expect him to be a long reliever for the Pirates, as he was initially a starting pitcher when he came up with the Orioles.
Prediction: 2-5/4.07 ERA/1.300 WHIP
Recap and Final Prediction
16 of 16Once again, the Pirates will manage to win just enough games to make the playoffs as a wild card in 2015.
Much like the 2014 Kansas City Royals, the length of the Pirates' postseason run will hinge on the effectiveness of the bullpen.
Based on my predictions, the Pirates will finish the regular season with a 89-73 record. Weigh in and let us know what you think.
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