San Francisco 49ers: Where Does Colin Kaepernick Rank Among Current Starters?

It’s not too much hyperbole to say that the success of the 2015 San Francisco 49ers rests squarely on the shoulders of Colin Kaepernick.  No position in football is as important as your starting quarterback.  Every single offensive play goes through him, and you build your entire offense around accentuating his strengths and hiding his weaknesses. 

Only one quarterback has won the Super Bowl since 2003 without being a Pro Bowl player—Joe Flacco.  Teams without a franchise quarterback are doomed to waste draft pick after draft pick chasing one.

BEN MARGOT/Associated Press

It looked like the 49ers had finally stopped searching when they extended Kaepernick's contract before last season.  For the first time since Jeff Garcia in the early 2000s, the 49ers had someone who had proven he could perform on the field. 

In his first half-season as a starter, he led the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance.  In his second season, he put together a 12-4 record while throwing 21 touchdown passes to eight interceptions.  When the 49ers locked him up on a team-friendly deal, it was widely regarded as a win.

Last season, however, brought Kaepernick’s future into question, somewhat.  While Kaepernick had been slightly less productive in 2013 than in 2012, that was chalked up to him still developing as a passer, as well as teams actually having film on him to study. 

It wasn’t enough of a drop-off to be worrisome, anyway.  However, that drop-off continued through a disappointing 2014 season, as Kaepernick and the 49ers fell apart in the second half of the year.

Kaepernick has now seen his yards per attempt, yards per completion, quarterback rating, QBR and net yards per attempt drop off every year since he took over in 2012.  His sack and interception percentages, meanwhile, have increased every season.  He’s been clearly on a downward trend.  For the first time last season, 49ers fans had to ask themselves—is Kaepernick really the quarterback of the future?

Michael Zito/Associated Press

That team-friendly contract makes this a make-or-break season for Kaepernick, as well.  According to Spotrac, the 49ers would save themselves $9.34 million against the salary cap in 2016 if they were to release Kaepernick.  If he can’t bounce back to at least his 2013 numbers, if not his superior 2012 ones, the 49ers could afford to release or trade him and move forward.

I’m on record saying that I believe Kaepenick will bounce back. 

In January, I ran his numbers to find similar historical trends for other quarterbacks, and the majority of names that appeared were good career players—names like Ben Roethlisberger, Jim Zorn and Russell Wilson.  I stand by that; there were enough positive signs at times last season to believe that, with a healthy offensive line and better weapons at receiver, Kaepernick will bounce back.

For the sake of argument, however, let’s assume that Kaepernick doesn’t bounce back.  Let’s assume that his 2015 season is just as good as his 2014 season. Where does that leave him?

You would, for sure, see 49ers fans complaining about Kaepernick’s performance, but that is a little bit colored by the historical success of San Francisco’s quarterbacks.  Imagine having to deal with the recent quarterback situations in Jacksonville, Buffalo, New York or Cleveland, and the Colin Kaepernick experience all of a sudden seems a lot more fun.

This is important because there is a third option for 2016 other than keeping or cutting Kaepernick—the 49ers could, in theory, trade the quarterback. 

The 49ers would keep the same dead money either way, stuck with the $7.4 million of signing bonus that hadn’t yet come off the cap, but a new team would only be responsible for Kaepernick’s non-guaranteed base salaries.  

You can bet that Kaepernick would have something of a market if the 49ers decided to shop him, assuming he played at the same rate as he did last season.  After all, Sam Bradford just got dealt despite a significantly worse career than Kaepernick’s to this point.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

With that in mind, it’s important to try to put Kaepernick in context.  Where does he rank among today’s NFL quarterbacks?

If you believe Pro Football Focus’ subjective player ratings, according to its color-coded depth charts, then 19 starting quarterbacks are better than Kaepernick. 

Kaepernick would be tied with Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Sam Bradford and Mike Glennon in this analysis and only ahead of Matt Cassell, Case Keenum, Derek Carr, Nick Foles, Zach Mettenberger, Robert Griffin III, Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel.  This is actually superior to its grading system, which had him 28th in the league last season.

That seems about right just based on last season, in all honesty.  PFF’s subjective grades match up with Football Outsiders’ statistical DVOA and DYAR stats, which had him 29th and 28th in the league last season, respectively. 

That’s not equivalent to the third-worst starter, thanks to some teams using multiple players, but it’s certainly not good. Kaepernick was also 30th in Pro-Football-Reference.com’s "Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt" stat.  No matter how you measure it, Kaepernick was not good at throwing the ball last season.

There is an issue with all these statistics, however, and that is the impossibility to separate the play of the quarterback from the play of the offense.  These grades aren’t just Kaepernick, because you can’t separate one player out like that. 

They’re Kaepernick, while being protected by an often-injured and often-changing offensive line, throwing to a tight end who suffered a sudden case of the drops and a wide receiver who had already mentally checked out of town, starting in subpar situations, thanks to a defense wrecked by injuries, and being coached by a staff involved in a power war behind the scenes. 

There may be an extenuating circumstance or two that could explain why Kaepernick’s numbers weren’t as high as in the past.

Of course, you could make the same argument in reverse—Kaepernick was put in very positive situations in 2012 and 2013 thanks to top-level performances from his teammates, especially on the offensive line.  His “true” level of performance, then, probably falls somewhere between his success in 2013 and his struggles in 2014.

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

With that being the case, I’d have to put Kaepernick smack-dab in the middle of projected starting quarterbacks in 2015. 

I think every team that has a quarterback that PFF rated as equal to Kaepernick—the Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers—would trade for Kaepernick in a heartbeat, as would any of the eight teams with a quarterback rated worse than Kaepernick.  That puts Kaepernick at no worse than 19th.

I don’t think any of the teams rated above the 49ers by PFF would swap quarterbacks, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they have better situations. 

Neither the Indianapolis Colts nor the Seattle Seahawks, for example, would trade Andrew Luck for Russell Wilson, but one of those players has to be better by definition.  Down at Kaepernick’s level, you’d be talking about trading the quarterback you know for the quarterback you don’t.

Take Matthew Stafford, for example.  Stafford puts up outstanding raw numbers.  He’s one of only five players to ever throw for 5,000 yards in a season, and he consistently ranks among the top in raw yards.  However, he has a horrendous record against winning teams, shoddy fundamentals and poor decision-making. 

The Detroit Lions would likely rather keep Stafford than trade for Kaepernick because they’re familiar with game-planning for his strengths and weaknesses, and the 49ers would likely rather keep Kaepernick for the same reasons.

I think, if forced to make a decision, a neutral team would rather have Kaepernick that several of the quarterbacks in PFF’s “good” tier, including Stafford, Carson Palmer, Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater.  These are all cases where you can make arguments either way, but I think, if I were starting a team, that would be my ultimate decision, when considering on-field production, age and contract status.

All in all, then, I’d put Kaepernick at 15th-best in the league, on a totally subjective level.  I feel that if you have a better quarterback than 2014 Kaepernick, you’re in the discussion for playoff contention, while if you have a worse quarterback, you need to have something special to overcome their flaws. 

Last year’s Kaepernick isn’t going to raise your team out of the doldrums, but he isn’t going to drive it there, either.  He’s roughly as good as the players around him.

That’s something to keep in mind if Kaepernick doesn’t return to form in 2015.  Even the Kaepernick we saw last season would be an upgrade for somewhere between a third and half the NFL teams out there.

Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.