The Biggest X-Factor on Every Projected 2015 NBA Playoff Team
NBA X-factors come packaged in different sizes, boasting different stat sheets and carrying different statures across the league.
But the one common thread linking them all is their ability to change the fortune of their respective franchise.
Whether stars, subs or anything in between, these are players who control their team's level of success. They can be the difference between simply appearing in the postseason or actually having an impact in it.
Some have battled (or are battling) injuries. Others have had issues with consistency. Still another group are simply deeply ingrained, pivotal pieces of a system that fails without their presence.
No matter their makeup, each is capable of elevating his club's ceiling.
And we're here to put a spotlight on the biggest one from every projected postseason participant—a 16-team group formulated using Basketball-Reference.com's playoff probabilities.
Atlanta Hawks: DeMarre Carroll
1 of 16
Position: SF
Age: 28
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 15.2 PER
The lone Atlanta Hawks starter not selected to the All-Star Game, DeMarre Carroll is the overlooked key ingredient in coach Mike Budenholzer's winning recipe.
Carroll's assignment sheet is as thick as a phone book. He spreads the floor as a shooter, slashes to the basket away from the ball and helps turn good shots into great ones with his passing. On the opposite end, he leads with his strength, length and tenacity.
"DeMarre really sets the tone for us defensively, gives us our spirit and our identity," Budenholzer said earlier this season, per Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
When Carroll plays well offensively, the Hawks are nearly unbeatable. They have a 37-7 record when he scores in double digits (.841 winning percentage) and just a 16-8 mark when he hasn't (.667).
He's a do-it-all contributor who might be asked to do even more. With versatile power forward Mike Scott sidelined indefinitely by a broken left big toe, Carroll might have to serve some spot duty as Atlanta's backup 4 to help maintain proper spacing.
Atlanta's equal-opportunity system inherently devalues the individuals in it, but Carroll's well-rounded skill set can raise this team's ceiling.
Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose
2 of 16
Position: PG
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 18.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 16.0 PER
The Chicago Bulls aren't winning a title without a healthy Derrick Rose. For everything the former MVP has gone through these past few years—a torn ACL in his left knee, two meniscus tears in his right one—that part of the story hasn't changed.
It's anyone's guess whether the Bulls will have Rose anywhere near his best, but all signs are at least pointing to a return at some point this season. He originally received a four- to six-week timetable that started Feb. 27, and coach Tom Thibodeau recently said the floor general is "maybe even slightly ahead" of that schedule, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
The Bulls have other weapons, but none that matches Rose's potency when he's right. He can dominate with his scoring (seven games with 25-plus points this season) or control a game with his distributing (eight outings with eight or more assists).
Chicago doesn't have another player who consistently does both at a high level or demands the type of defensive attention Rose receives, which in turn makes life easier for his teammates.
In other words, it's a different season but the same story in the Windy City. Rose can either lift the Bulls to title contention or watch them struggle to become anything more than a pesky playoff opponent.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Kevin Love
3 of 16
Position: PF
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.7 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks, 19.2 PER
The Cleveland Cavaliers might be a championship force on the talents of LeBron James and Kyrie Irving alone. Their odds will only increase if J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and James Jones consistently provide a punch from the perimeter.
But Kevin Love is the only one who can send this team into video game mode—and enable all the cheat codes.
Volume hasn't been the issue for the three-time All-Star. His scoring and rebounding numbers are right in line with the ones Chris Bosh put up the past four seasons as the third wheel to James and Dwyane Wade with the Miami Heat (17.3 and 7.4, respectively).
But efficiency shows the wide gap between the two sweet-shooting bigs. Bosh was a 50.9 percent shooter as a No. 3 option. Love has only converted 43 percent of his attempts.
Despite battling back spasms, he's also adjusted on the fly to becoming a part-time contributor after spending the majority of his career as the Minnesota Timberwolves' primary scorer.
But those challenges haven't become any easier during the course of the year. He's scoring less (15.1 points from 17.2) and shooting worse (43.5 percent from 45.6) in March than he did in November.
If he doesn't turn things around quickly, Cleveland will have to hope that its Big Two of James and Irving is enough to snap the city's championship drought.
Dallas Mavericks: Rajon Rondo
4 of 16
Position: PG
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 13.3 PER
Given the point guard gauntlet the Western Conference playoffs will present, the Dallas Mavericks desperately needed an upgrade at the position. But the jury is still out on whether acquiring Rajon Rondo was the solution to that problem.
Even the Mavs are sending mixed messages about their opinion.
After his publicized sideline spat with coach Rick Carlisle, Rondo claims he's found a common ground with Dallas' signal-caller.
"We're on the same page a lot more throughout the game," Rondo said, per Mavs Moneyball's Tim Cato. "I'm calling some of the plays before he calls them."
But the numbers don't exactly agree with that assessment. The Mavs had the league's third-best offense before the All-Star break and have dropped to 16th since. Plus, Dallas has started experimenting with Chandler Parsons in a point-forward role, which doesn't seem like a move a team would make if it felt good about its point guard situation.
Rondo's defensive skills will be key come playoff time, but the Mavs won't factor in the championship race unless he makes a similar impact on the opposite end of the floor.
Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes
5 of 16
Position: SF
Age: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, 13.3 PER
The Golden State Warriors are running out of room to push their ceiling any higher. With sizable leads on the rest of the league in both winning percentage (.806) and net efficiency rating (plus-11.6 points per 100 possessions), the Dubs are dominating like none of their peers.
But third-year forward Harrison Barnes' consistency could be key to climbing yet another level—or at least maintaining the one they've already reached.
During the team's 54 victories, he's been a lights-out shooter: 50.0 percent from the field, 43.3 percent from deep and 75.0 percent at the line. In Golden State's 13 losses, those conversion rates have dramatically declined: 44.2, 36.6 and 56.0, respectively.
Splash siblings Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will lead this explosive offensive attack into the second season, but the opposition knows what's coming. Teams will do everything they can to force the ball out of Curry's hands and contest Thompson's perimeter looks.
Golden State will need some safety valves. Barnes is capable of filling that role, both with spot-up shooting and slashing to the basket. But he has to answer that call on a nightly basis. If he can demand a decent amount of defensive attention, then the Warriors' pace-and-space attack might be impossible to contain.
Houston Rockets: Dwight Howard
6 of 16
Position: C
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.4 blocks, 18.1 PER
Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard is closing in on his return from a knee injury that's kept him out since Jan. 23.
"I have been feeling pretty good," Howard said, per Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle. "I had some pretty good days of practice this week."
He's optimistic about coming back soon, per Creech, but also preparing to proceed with caution. He doesn't expect to see more than 20 to 25 minutes in his first few times out and has no plans to play both ends of a back-to-back down the stretch.
There are no guarantees Howard will arrive with that Superman cape draped around his shoulders. Heroics could elude the high-flying center for a while.
But Houston doesn't have much time to wait. It desperately needs a second scorer to lighten MVP candidate James Harden's workload. And it has to find some rim protection with Terrence Jones' rib injury expected to keep him out "for a little bit," as coach Kevin McHale put it, per CBS Houston's Howard Chen.
Having Howard back will help. But the Rockets really need their old superhero center to make real noise in the postseason.
Indiana Pacers: Rodney Stuckey
7 of 16
Position: 28
Age: SG
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks, 16.7 PER
After surging up the standings with seven straight wins, the Indiana Pacers have now fallen back to reality after suffering three consecutive defeats. Their Paul George-less offense has flatlined, averaging only 91.0 points on 40.9 percent shooting during this losing streak.
Rodney Stuckey, a career 13.4 points-per-game scorer and 42.7 percent shooter, appears to be an unlikely offensive savior. But that's exactly the role the scoring guard has played while averaging 15.8 points and 3.9 assists and posting a sizzling .502/.491/.865 slash line during the 27 victories in which he's appeared.
The problem is, he doesn't always produce like that. During the 32 games Indiana has lost with Stuckey on the floor, he's posted only 11.0 points and 2.6 assists along with a forgettable .413/.291/.774 shooting slash.
Those are significant splits, particularly on a team that struggles to score as badly as the Pacers have. Their top point producer, George Hill (14.7 points per game), is tied for 67th overall in scoring.
Indiana has the pieces to be a defensive power, but it also knows the dangers of being too one-dimensional. An aggressive, efficient Stuckey can help prevent that problem.
Los Angeles Clippers: Matt Barnes
8 of 16
Position: SF
Age: 35
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, 11.7 PER
All the chatter about the Los Angeles Clippers needing to bolster their wings wasn't unfounded. Their small forward crop is dangerously thin.
But that shouldn't be taken as a jab at Matt Barnes. L.A.'s starting 3 has had a strong season, continuing to agitate at the defensive end and pump in points on the opposite side with 45.8 percent shooting from the field and a 38.2 percent success rate from deep.
With defensive sieves J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford splitting the shooting guard minutes, Barnes' ability to defend multiple positions is invaluable.
"He’ll guard the best wing players on a lot of teams," DeAndre Jordan said of Barnes, per Grantland's Jonathan Abrams. "He’ll take the challenge of guarding the shooting guard, the 3 man; sometimes he likes to get down there and guard 4s."
With Crawford still battling a nagging calf bruise, Barnes is arguably more important to the Clippers now than he's ever been. A double-digit scorer and hard-nosed defender, he's a two-way contributor at a position where L.A. only has one-way options behind him (Hedo Turkoglu for offense, Dahntay Jones for defense).
Memphis Grizzlies: Jeff Green
9 of 16
Position: SF
Age: 28
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, 14.4 PER
On paper, Jeff Green looked like the perfect piece to complete the Memphis Grizzlies' puzzle. He's a good enough shooter to stretch out a defense, a crafty enough scorer to create his own shots and a willing defender with the right blend of length and athleticism to play a major part on that side of the ball.
In practice, the transition hasn't gone nearly as smooth as expected. He's shooting nearly four points lower than his career average (40.3 field-goal percentage, down from 43.9) and scoring less than he has since his rookie season (12.4 points per game). The Grizzlies have been outscored by 2.8 points per 100 possessions while he's on the floor and outscored their opponents by 10 points per 100 trips when he isn't.
"Green, who neither gives the offense the space it needs nor the defense the tenacity it feeds on, just hasn't been the right fit," wrote Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney.
But Green still has time to figure things out. And Memphis, which has lost seven of its last 13 games, has no other option but to wait.
The Grizzlies can't go back to starting Tony Allen, because he's too big of an offensive liability for the half-court style played in the postseason. They just have to hope Green gets back to being the player he was before, the one well-suited to scratch this team's perimeter itch.
Miami Heat: Dwyane Wade
10 of 16
Position: SG
Age: 33
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 21.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 22.7 PER
With LeBron James back home in Cleveland and Chris Bosh lost for the season, Dwyane Wade is once again running his one-man show in South Beach.
And even with a decade-plus of knee problems and 33 years under his belt, he's still the best hope the Miami Heat have to salvage their season.
When his body cooperates, he's a premier player. His production over his last seven games has simply been absurd: 29.1 points on 53.6 percent shooting. The Heat are 5-2 in those games, having claimed victories over James' Cavs and the Portland Trail Blazers their last two times out.
Miami fans can't expect these magic acts from Wade every night, but he'll have to pull a few rabbits out of his hat to help this team escape a potentially brutal first-round matchup. He has some help from newcomer Goran Dragic, surprise star Hassan Whiteside and the seasoned, steady Luol Deng, but Wade is still the straw stirring this drink—plus the glass, the ice cubes and the beverage itself.
If the Heat can keep their playoff contests close, they have the luxury of handing things over to one of the game's great closers.
Milwaukee Bucks: Michael Carter-Williams
11 of 16
Position: PG
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 13.5 PER
The Milwaukee Bucks have been trapped in a tailspin since Michael Carter-Williams first grabbed their point guard reins on Feb. 25. Milwaukee has lost four games in a row and nine of 12 since his debut.
He's not a good shooter, and unfortunately, neither are a lot of his teammates. (Only Khris Middleton and Jared Dudley are shooting better than 36 percent from three.) That means MCW is either attacking a congested paint or trying to pick apart microscopic passing lanes. He averaged almost a full assist more per 36 minutes with the punch-less Philadelphia 76ers than he has with the Bucks (6.9 down from 7.8).
But there's still plenty to like about this partnership.
At 6'6", he has the physical tools to be an ideal head of Milwaukee's long, athletic snake. And he's always been a willing passer—even when the Sixers stripped him of competent receivers—which should help revive a stagnant Bucks offense.
He's still learning what his new teammates like, and the Bucks are still figuring out how to best use his skills. The success of those two endeavors will determine what Milwaukee can make of what has been a surprisingly solid season.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Russell Westbrook
12 of 16
Position: PG
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 27.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 2.2 steals, 0.2 blocks, 29.6 PER
Russell Westbrook, the floor is unfortunately yours.
As fun as his tour de force has been to watch, its greatest intrigue came from the potential impact it could have once the Oklahoma City Thunder were back at full strength. But now it's looking like that day may never come.
Serge Ibaka is out an estimated four to six weeks following arthroscopic knee surgery, per ESPN.com's Royce Young. And reigning MVP Kevin Durant could be lost for even longer after failing to make progress with his twice-surgically repaired right foot.
Durant has been "removed from basketball activities," Thunder general manager Sam Presti announced Friday, per Young. When pressed on whether Durant was being shut down, Presti said, "Essentially that's the direction we're headed right now."
Westbrook has done a masterful job of holding the depleted Thunder together. Over his last 22 games, he's put up 31.8 points, 9.7 assists and 8.9 rebounds. But OKC is just 6-5 over its last 11 games and sitting only one game ahead of the ninth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans.
Westbrook will have a hard enough time sustaining this level, let alone finding another gear. But if reinforcements aren't coming, his roundball wizardry is the only hope this team has.
Portland Trail Blazers: Nicolas Batum
13 of 16
Position: SF
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 13.0 PER
Wesley Matthews' season-ending torn Achilles threatened to break the Portland Trail Blazers apart. Supremely skilled glue guy Nicolas Batum, however, has kept the team together.
It's been a rough season for the seventh-year forward, who's posting career-worst shooting marks from both the field (40.1) and three (30.8). But a lingering wrist problem could have been the culprit, and either it's improving or he's learning how to deal with it.
He's been a completely different player since the All-Star break. He went from averaging 8.9 points on .375/.272/.833 shooting, 5.5 rebounds and 4.7 assists before intermission to now tallying 11.9 points on .491/.431/.900 shooting, 7.2 boards and 5.6 dimes.
His offensive rating has jumped from 100 to 122. He's added more than 15 points to his true shooting percentage (63.1 from 47.8).
He's doing what the Blazers expect from their do-it-all X-factor. Provided he keeps this up, Portland could still be a postseason force.
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker
14 of 16
Position: PG
Age: 32
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 0.7 steals, 16.2 PER
Even with a time-tested system and a fully loaded roster, the San Antonio Spurs are only going to go as far as Tony Parker can take them.
He gives this offense its otherworldly powers. His dribble penetrations set everything into motion: bigs rolling to the basket, shooters making camp in the corners, weak-side cutters slipping past preoccupied defenders.
"Parker is the difference between an elite and average offense—and its ability to contend in the weeks to come," wrote Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb.
The Spurs have won 35 games with Parker in the lineup, and the point guard has gone for 16.7 points on 50.5 percent shooting during those contests. In the 18 losses he's played, he's averaged only 11.7 points on 42.7 percent shooting.
San Antonio, a historically consistent machine over the past two decades, has been tough to figure out this season. Having a healthy Parker—he's battled a balky hamstring—could help eliminate that uncertainty and put the defending champs back in the title race.
Toronto Raptors: Jonas Valanciunas
15 of 16
Position: C
Age: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.2 blocks, 20.7 PER
The Toronto Raptors won't get anywhere on the strength of their 22nd-ranked defense. Offensive execution alone will determine this team's fate.
So it's time for the Raptors to start taking full advantage of the weapons at their disposal. They have a 6'11" mountain of untapped production manning the middle in center Jonas Valanciunas. But they often overlook him.
DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Louis Williams lead the team in both points and field-goal attempts per game (in that order). None of the three shoots even 42 percent from the field, and Lowry is the only one clearing the 40 percent mark. Valanciunas, meanwhile, has cashed in 57.3 percent of his attempts—but he takes just 8.1 a night (less than half of DeRozan's 16.3).
Good things happen when they look the big guy's way. The Raptors are 13-7 when Valanciunas scores at least 15 points (.650 winning percentage) and 28-20 when he doesn't (.583).
Toronto, which has gone just 5-10 since the All-Star break, has looked in desperate need of a spark. Valanciunas could provide that, but only if the Raptors let him.
Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal
16 of 16
Position: SG
Age: 21
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 13.6 PER
If the Washington Wizards are able to make a long playoff run, scoring guard Bradley Beal's fingerprints will be all over it.
He's one of the only high-volume, high-efficiency long-range shooters on the roster. Considering the space John Wall needs to drive, and Marcin Gortat and Nene need to bang in the post, it's hard to overstate the importance of Beal's shooting ability.
It comes as no surprise, then, that Beal's floor presence has meant the difference of 7.3 points per 100 possessions for this offense. The Wizards boast a top-10 attack when he's on the floor (their 106.2 offensive rating would be sixth overall) and a bottom-five offense when he isn't (98.9, good for 27th).
As long as he can stay healthy—he's missed 18 games to injuries—he can give Washington the two-way balance it takes to survive in the second season.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
