2015 NBA Playoff Odds: Latest Team Predictions for Season's Stretch Run
If it seems like the NBA playoff picture is only getting murkier as we press toward the finish of the 2014-15 season, there's a reason for that.
It's true.
The lower reaches of the Eastern Conference remain a jumbled mess of would-be tankers and former contenders searching for the form they once had. One way or the other, it looks like the seventh and eighth seeds in that conference will be occupied by teams that aren't what they thought they were when the season started.
Out West, we have a battle for No. 8 as well—one that could be swayed by the reigning MVP or the guy making a case to win it this year. May the best Brow win.
In determining postseason odds, we'll look to how each team has performed this season, with some added emphasis on how the competitors have played recently. And looking ahead, we'll consider imminent returns from injury (hi, Kevin Durant!) and the remaining strength of schedule.
We'll pull championship odds from OddsShark.com to supplement our own playoff odds.
Officially Eliminated
1 of 20
Go home, guys; you're done.
The math says the Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers are officially toast this year. No late-season surge or desperate run can save them now.
For most of these teams, all that's left is preserving (or improving) lottery odds. The Lakers, for example, have a vested interest in making sure their pick falls in the top five. They lose it to the Sixers otherwise.
For the sake of completeness, behold: the odds of the eliminated!
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds)
- Los Angeles Lakers: 0-1 (N/A)
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 0-1 (N/A)
- Sacramento Kings: 0-1 (N/A)
- New York Knicks: 0-1 (N/A)
- Philadelphia 76ers: 0-1 (N/A)
Dwindling Hopes
2 of 20
The lights are dimming on a few teams that have yet to officially enter lottery darkness, and one of them, the Denver Nuggets, is sprinting toward that abyss—feet churning, arms wide.
Maybe it's unseemly for a team like Denver, which fired Brian Shaw and found some real momentum under Melvin Hunt, to pack it in ahead of schedule. But management mandated rest for some of the Nuggets' top players in a March 16 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies—or at least it sure looked that way to Wilson Chandler.
"It's tough when you're fighting together, but you're getting set up for failure," Chandler said, per Chris Dempsey of The Denver Post.
Tough, sure. But also practical. The Nuggets, like the rest of the teams listed below, have little chance and less incentive to make the playoffs. It's only a matter of time before official postseason elimination crosses these squads off the list.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds)
- Denver Nuggets: 1,000-1 (N/A)
- Orlando Magic: 1,000-1 (N/A)
- Utah Jazz: 500-1 (N/A)
- Detroit Pistons: 250-1 (N/A)
The Locks
3 of 20
The Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks have outclassed their respective conferences all season long, and they're still the only two teams with officially secured playoff spots.
That just feels right.
A handful of other clubs have been separating themselves from the pack since the All-Star break as well. Though the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers aren't stone-cold mathematical locks, they've built up enough of a cushion between themselves and the lottery to make the chances of their missing the playoffs small.
Barring a meteor strike or some ghost-written term papers that affect eligibility (wait, that doesn't happen in the NBA? OK, just the meteor thing then, I guess), neither the Grizzlies nor the Cavs have anything to worry about. Though, to be fair, Memphis has been shaky of late, essentially playing .500 ball in March.
That's an issue for the Grizzlies' title hopes, but not one that'll affect their playoff chances.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds)
- Atlanta Hawks: 1-0 (7-1)
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 1-500 (2-1)
- Golden State Warriors: 1-0 (7-2)
- Memphis Grizzlies: 1-500 (10-1)
Boston Celtics
4 of 20
Not to tell you your business, but you should want the Boston Celtics to make the playoffs.
Head coach Brad Stevens deserves a little postseason action for surviving the revolving personnel door created by team president Danny Ainge's constant wheeling and dealing. Rajon Rondo and Jeff Green are long gone, Jared Sullinger's season is over, and the C's have relied on a ridiculously young roster to stay afloat.
They play defense with intensity, and only the Warriors and Hawks move the ball more willingly. Boston's assist percentage of 62.8 percent ranks third in the league, per NBA.com. Breeding that kind of unselfishness is remarkably tough with so little continuity and a cast of young players who nobody would fault for chasing their own stats in a situation like this.
Though the Celtics' rebuild would benefit from another shot in the lottery, they've stockpiled enough picks via trade to withstand missing out on their own.
In addition, it's clear the pursuit of a postseason berth has been good for the development of Boston's youth. Rookie Marcus Smart buried a personal and rookie-high seven triples in the Celtics' tough 122-118 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on March 18.
This team has a real shot to make the dance.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 7-2 (250-1)
Brooklyn Nets
5 of 20
It's not like the Brooklyn Nets are flirting with elimination, and they only trail the four-team cluster of Boston, the Miami Heat, the Indiana Pacers and the Charlotte Hornets by a couple of games in the loss column.
A late run could vault the Nets as high as the No. 7 seed, and with the Milwaukee Bucks slipping at No. 6, who knows what might be possible?
ESPNNewYork.com's Mike Mazzeo notes Brooklyn has a season-defining stretch ahead:
"The Nets, who have been great at scoring in the paint yet still struggle to play consistently under Lionel Hollins, are in the midst of a season-defining stretch. Games against Milwaukee, Indiana, Boston and Charlotte—four teams they are chasing in the standings—loom in succession, starting with (a March 20) Bucks matchup.
"
Unfortunately, Brooklyn hasn't beaten a quality team since its improbable defeat of a road-weary Warriors squad on March 2. Since then, the Nets have lost six of eight, and the only wins came against the already eliminated Sixers and Timberwolves.
The Nets have a chance to determine their own fate in the coming weeks, but based on the way they've played lately, there's little reason to believe their destiny includes the playoffs.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 10-1 (750-1)
Charlotte Hornets
6 of 20
The closing stretch of March will give the Hornets plenty of shots to make up ground on their Eastern Conference foes. After road tilts against the Kings and Timberwolves, Charlotte will face the Chicago Bulls, Nets, Washington Wizards, Hawks and Celtics.
There's nothing like a sampling of interconference play to sort out where the Hornets really stand.
To make the most of their upcoming slate (and potential playoff chances), Charlotte has to find a way to score consistently. Twice in the last two weeks, opponents have held the Hornets under 70 points, and only the Sixers' offensive rating has been worse than Charlotte's this season.
Defensively, Steve Clifford gets enough from his system—not to mention super stopper Michael Kidd-Gilchrist—to make most contests competitive.
One thing to watch is Charlotte's inability to produce when playing Kemba Walker and Mo Williams together. In a limited sample since Walker returned from a knee injury, the undersized duo has posted a minus-13.8 net rating on the court together.
If Charlotte can't get offense from those two together, it may not be able to get it at all.
A playoff berth is possible. But it's not likely.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 2-1 (500-1)
Chicago Bulls
7 of 20
The Chicago Bulls are much closer to clinching a playoff berth than they are to sniffing the lottery. There's no realistic danger that they'll miss the postseason, though they could use some better health down the stretch to assure themselves home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason.
What? The Bulls are banged up?
Yes, believe it or not, one of the NBA's most consistently worn-down outfits is battling the injury bug, hoping to get itself right in time for the games that really count.
Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Derrick Rose are all out, but the good news is that Joakim Noah has looked more like himself recently than he has at any point this season. He grabbed 14 rebounds and handed out seven assists in a 103-86 win over the Pacers on March 18.
Butler and Gibson are practicing now, and Rose is already doing non-contact work after having surgery to remove a torn meniscus on Feb. 27, according to K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
"My body feels great in the morning. My first practice back, I had a few bumps. But I think it's possible," Butler said of returning late this week. "But I can't rush it. I don't want it to get any worse."
If the stars align and the injury gods are merciful, a contender could emerge in Chicago.
The modest goal of making the playoffs won't be a problem.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-30 (18-1)
Dallas Mavericks
8 of 20As of March 18, the Dallas Mavericks had a six-game lead on the No. 9 New Orleans Pelicans. And though Dirk Nowitzki and Co. have been a little shaky over their last 10 contests, it's hard to envision the Mavs slipping too far down the standings.
Then again, a positively brutal upcoming stretch makes anything seem possible.
Dallas will tangle with Memphis and the Phoenix Suns next, followed by a home-and-away set against the San Antonio Spurs. After that are trips to Indiana and Oklahoma City, followed by home tilts against the Houston Rockets and Warriors.
Yikes.
The Mavs are getting healthier, which is good. And Rajon Rondo, ill-fitting as he's been in Dallas' offense, is getting friskier, which is even better.
A 33-point loss to the Cavaliers on March 10 seems to have lit a fire, and Dallas has since notched a 30-point win over the Clippers and hung 119 points on OKC in another victory. If the Mavs' vaunted offensive system keeps scorching opponents, they'll be fine.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-25 (25-1)
Houston Rockets
9 of 20
With the way James Harden has held the Rockets steady during Dwight Howard's two-month absence, it's easy to get caught thinking D12 won't make much of a difference whenever he's ready to return.
Two things about that.
First, Howard's lengthy rehab seems to have him in a good place, according to the Houston Chronicle's Jenny Dial Creech: "My legs are coming back. I was doing stuff the other day that I couldn't do all season," Howard said.
From the sound of it, Howard is getting close.
Second, the idea that the Rockets don't need Howard is a little silly. In 32 games with a mostly healthy Dwight, Houston posted a net rating of plus-6.9 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. In 35 games without him, Houston has played to a net rating of plus-1.9.
That's a significant difference—one that should remind everyone Houston was flat-out elite before Howard went down.
Harden can hold the fort down the stretch without much issue, but a healthy Howard would help Houston force its way onto the short list of title contenders.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-50 (25-1)
Indiana Pacers
10 of 20
The Pacers ran up a 13-2 record between Feb. 1 and March 12, only to see a three-game losing streak grind their league-best momentum to a halt.
Indiana's six weeks of terrific play weigh into the analysis more than a rough few days do. Now healthy, George Hill has given the Pacers a major boost, and as a whole, their net rating of plus-6.4 trails only the Cavs in the East since Feb. 1.
As great as Indy has been, the schedule gets ugly from now on.
David Woods of The Indianapolis Star breaks it down:
"The combined winning percentage of the Pacers' remaining opponents is .512. Of the six teams with a realistic shot at the No. 7 and 8 playoff spots, only the Brooklyn Nets (.523) have it tougher. But Brooklyn, which visits the Pacers on Saturday, has 11 home games out of 17 remaining; the Pacers have seven at home, nine on the road.
"
Call it a hunch, but it's just easier to see Indiana holding strong down the stretch than Charlotte, Boston or Brooklyn. There's something to be said for continuity and recent playoff experience. The Pacers have the edge over those teams in both categories.
They're more likely than not to secure one of the last two seeds in the East.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-3 (75-1)
Los Angeles Clippers
11 of 20
Blake Griffin is back, Chris Paul continues to make us all question why he's only a fringe MVP candidate, and Hedo Turkoglu thinks it's 2008.
Wait, what?
"Turk was amazing," head coach Doc Rivers told The Associated Press (h/t Fox Sports). "It was a throwback game for him. We've eased him through this season, but we're playing him more now. He's finding his rhythm."
That's right; Turkoglu drilled five triples and scored 19 points in a March 18 win over the Sacramento Kings, making the absolute most of his chance to start over the injured Matt Barnes. Nobody expects Turkoglu (or anyone on L.A.'s perilously thin bench) to make an impact like that very often, but if the Clips can get the occasional help from someone other than their big guns, it'll make a world of difference.
Los Angeles leans almost entirely on Paul, Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, a strategy that has the team within striking distance of a top-four seed. Some support from role players might allow those three stars the odd spate of rest they'll need to mount an unlikely title chase.
The playoffs are no problem as long as CP3 is in charge.
If Turkoglu continues to act like he's in a time warp, maybe bigger things are ahead. And failing that, it'd be nice if the Clippers could defend at anything above a league-average rate.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-40 (18-1)
Miami Heat
12 of 20
Here's everything you need to know about the Miami Heat's playoff chances:
"This is the best I've felt in years right now," Dwyane Wade told reporters after scoring 32 points in a 108-104 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on March 18, per Michael Wallace of ESPN.com. "You question it. And you try not to question it, like 'Why? Why couldn't I feel like this the last two years?' But it is what it is. I'm feeling like this now, when I need it individually to (carry) more of a load to help this team."
Wade has eclipsed the 25-point mark in seven straight games, his best scoring run in five years.
In a perfect world, Wade's throwback surge would be happening alongside Chris Bosh, which might make the Heat more than just a problematic matchup for a high seed.
Bosh won't be back this season, but Wade has Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside around, which isn't so bad as fallback options go.
Miami is 6-3 through its first nine games in March, and a four-game road trip at the end of the month will be critical. But it's hard to see the Heat missing the dance as long as Wade is his old (young?) self.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-2 (75-1)
Milwaukee Bucks
13 of 20
Slippage alert!
The Milwaukee Bucks have lost four straight and eight of their last 10, which doesn't say a whole lot for new point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Since his arrival at the trade deadline, Milwaukee is 4-11. And while we certainly can't blame all of the Bucks' slide on MCW—three of those losses came in games he didn't even play—it's clear Milwaukee is a different team now than it was through most of February.
It's not panic time just yet; the Bucks still have some breathing room between themselves and the Pacers-Heat-Celtics-Hornets logjam at the bottom of the East. But things are much tighter than they were just a couple of weeks ago.
Because the Bucks are so young, it's possible this thing could spiral out of control, which would ruin what's been a great story for most of this season.
The odds say Milwaukee can hold it together. Here's hoping they're right.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-3 (100-1)
New Orleans Pelicans
14 of 20
I already implored you once to root for the Celtics to make the playoffs because it was the right thing to do.
I'm doing it again for the New Orleans Pelicans, who need to reach the postseason if only so the nonsensical argument that Anthony Davis doesn't deserve MVP consideration because of his team's lottery status dies a long-overdue death.
AD is a basketball monster of Godzillian proportions. He throws up lines involving 36 points, 14 rebounds, nine blocks and seven assists in losses, and somehow, we decide the Pellies' middling overall performance is somehow attributable to him.
As it stands now, New Orleans owns the tiebreaker over the Thunder, which could provide a key advantage in a race for No. 8 that has been separated by little more than a game for quite a while.
With injuries continuing to afflict OKC, the Pelicans' chance to seize the moment is, well...this very moment.
A road-heavy closing schedule will make things tough, though, and the Thunder haven't shown a willingness to roll over. So it's only fair to give the Pelicans slightly worse odds than Oklahoma City—but just barely.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 3-2 (200-1)
Oklahoma City Thunder
15 of 20
Speaking of which, let's consider the Thunder for a moment.
Russell Westbrook is doing his best Oscar Robertson impression, which has been necessary to compensate for the absence of Kevin Durant—who is out indefinitely, per Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN—and Serge Ibaka, who is slated to miss the remainder of the regular season. Maybe Westbrook will channel Bill Russell next.
He may have to, as the Thunder relied heavily on Ibaka to cover for the defensive shortcomings of Enes Kanter who, of course, suffered an ugly ankle roll on March 18.
Meanwhile, Sam Presti announced Friday the ominous news that OKC is preparing for Durant to miss the rest of the season. "Unless he's able to be back on the floor without soreness, he won't be back on the floor," Presti told reporters at a Friday press conference.
When it rains, it pours.
It's starting to feel crazy to think so, but if Westbrook can sustain his one-man show for a while longer, OKC should still be considered a slight favorite over the Pelicans.
And if everyone magically gets healthy come playoff time, watch out.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-1 (8-1)
Phoenix Suns
16 of 20
Phoenix shook up its roster at the trade deadline in hopes of alleviating some of the traffic at point guard and, ideally, improving the overall vibe in the locker room.
Unfortunately, the Suns have performed worse than both New Orleans and Oklahoma City since then, and the result is a fairly bleak postseason outlook.
Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic outlined the situation in his March 19 column:
"Beyond the opposite momentum, the sliding Suns are dealing with ankle sprains to two starters, Alex Len and Brandon Knight, who did not practice this week and are doubtful for Thursday night's game. Also, the Suns' remaining schedule only has two losing opponents left on it.
"
The injuries aren't an excuse, as both the Pelicans and Thunder can claim poorer health situations.
And there's no room for self-pity, as Eric Bledsoe noted, per Coro: "We're in a dogfight. We can't wait for everybody else to help us out. We got to go out and win on our own."
With a whopping 10 tilts left against teams above them in the West standings (not counting the March 19 contest against the Pelicans), the Suns will get ample chances to help themselves.
Or get buried.
The latter feels likelier.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 15-1 (500-1)
Portland Trail Blazers
17 of 20
Not only do the Blazers have a near lock on a postseason spot, but they also have an almost certain chance of securing a top-four seed because of their hefty lead in the Northwest Division. Barring a miraculous OKC run, Portland won't slip to No. 5.
What the Blazers do with their playoff seed is another question.
Losing Wesley Matthews for the year was a major blow, though Nicolas Batum's emergence from a season-long slump has helped compensate.
Bleacher Report's Bryant Knox recently rated Batum as the most important player in Portland's title pursuit, and it's hard to argue with his logic: "What makes Batum the most important player is the Grand Canyon-sized gap between his highs and lows. When Batum is playing to the best of his abilities, he's an efficient shooter who can stuff a stat sheet on a nightly basis."
And when he's cold from the perimeter or holding the ball more than moving it, the Blazers suffer.
A team like the Blazers, stuck somewhere below serious contention, depends on X-factors. Batum is one of those, and he could make a huge difference down the stretch.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-40 (25-1)
San Antonio Spurs
18 of 20
Should those of us who questioned the Spurs' fortitude apologize individually now or just wait for some kind of class-action mea culpa later on?
Either way, San Antonio has once again cornered the market on "I told you so," winning eight of 10 behind Tony Parker's improved health and Kawhi Leonard's defensive ferocity. And for all the talk of the Spurs doing things under the radar, they've beaten their foes badly enough lately to pump their per-game margin of victory up to plus-4.4 per contest.
That's the fourth-best figure in the West.
So although the Spurs sit at No. 7 as of March 18, they feel a whole lot more like a title threat than a soft first-round out.
Although Manu Ginobili's sprained ankle and the occasionally inexplicable throwaway game (see: 104-100 loss to the Knicks on March 17) are sources of minor concern, there's little reason to suspect San Antonio will do anything but hold steady where it is or move up a notch.
The Spurs aren't slipping—that's for sure.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-35 (8-1)
Toronto Raptors
19 of 20
The Raptors have been backing into a top-three playoff spot for weeks now, and although their slide has allowed the Bulls and Washington Wizards to draw closer, the Raps still aren't in any real danger of falling all the way out of the race.
Despite posting a minus-3.5 net rating since Feb. 21, Toronto is remarkably just two games behind Cleveland for the No. 2 spot in the East.
At this point, it's beyond tired to point out just how feeble the East is, but when a team like Toronto can post a negative net rating for nearly two months and still be within striking distance of a top-two seed, I mean...wow.
Kyle Lowry's back injury, incurred courtesy of a Gorgui Dieng knee to the spine on March 18, will warrant monitoring. If he's not fully healthy for the postseason, you can write in the Raps as a first-round casualty in permanent ink.
Toronto will get to the playoffs, though. There's almost no doubt about that.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-40 (33-1)
Washington Wizards
20 of 20
A gut-it-out win over the Utah Jazz on March 18 may have helped the Washington Wizards find themselves.
"This reminds us of our team when we were [31-15]," John Wall said afterward, via Jorge Castillo of The Washington Post. "We didn't play well and turned the ball over, but we defended and did the little things and got one of those gritty wins at the end. This reminds us of ourselves."
The offense has been in shambles for basically all of the season's second half, but the Wizards have managed to string together an impressive five-game winning streak that in addition to the Utah triumph also included victories against the Grizzlies and Blazers.
That's no small task for a club that won three games in the entire month of February.
While Washington is far from perfect, it has done enough this year to assure a second consecutive postseason trip. And who knows: If grit and defense define their stretch run, the Wizards could overtake Toronto and Chicago for that No. 3 seed in the East.
Playoff Odds (Championship Odds): 1-40 (50-1)
All stats courtesy of NBA.com unless otherwise indicated.
