Is Free Agent WR Michael Crabtree the Next Hakeem Nicks?

The San Francisco 49ers have been imploding since losing the Super Bowl to the Ravens in 2013. Losing highly regarded head coach Jim Harbaugh in an apparent power struggle with the front office. Watching the degradation of Colin Kaepernick from potential franchise quarterback to a one-read power arm. Being overtaken by the Seattle Seahawks as the NFC West's dominant team. It's safe to say that no team has suffered as much of a drop in their stock since the 2013 calendar year started. 

And perhaps no player on the team embodies that stock loss quite as well as wide receiver Michael Crabtree. During the 2012 season he was one of the best receivers in the NFL, catching 85 passes for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns. 

After tearing his Achilles prior to the 2013 season, Crabtree played just five regular-season games while telling reporters he "wasn't himself." The entire 2014 offseason was devoted to innuendo that the 49ers would try to sign Crabtree to a contract extension. One injury-plagued down year later, and we're learning that Crabtree is essentially a fourth-tier target for teams—one that, a week into free agency, had generated essentially no buzz:

Or at least that was the story before Crabtree made a visit to Miami, according to Yahoo Sports' Rand Getlin:

What Crabtree's story really shows is backing for the old Jerry Glanville saying that the NFL stands for Not For Long. One day an NFL player looks destined for a large contract extension as the top receiver on a terrific team, and one injury later, we're not even sure if he belongs in the NFL. The margin between great player and camp fodder can be that small. 

In that sense, Crabtree's story reminds me a lot of a player who hit free agency for the first time in 2013: fellow wideout Hakeem Nicks. 

Nicks too incurred a devastating injury. When his knee hit the turf at the Meadowlands as he tried to play through a foot injury, it changed his fortunes forever. Nicks had to settle for a one-year flier contract from the Colts, billed as something that could rebuild his value. It didn't: He just wasn't the same player anymore. 

Timeframe	Michael Crabtree	Hakeem Nicks
DYAR pre-injury	564 (4 seasons)	730 (3 seasons)
DYAR post-injury	59 (2 seasons)	149 (3 seasons)

Crabtree now likely faces the exact same free-agency situation: He's going to have to take a "prove-it" contract before anyone in an NFL front office will take him seriously as a No. 1 wide receiver again. 

That doesn't mean he's destined for the same path as Nicks, of course. Crabtree's body could respond differently. He could be exactly what a team like Miami needs, and operating mostly as an underneath threat to Kenny Stills' deep man could allow him to showcase his skills and hit free agency next year as the star he would've been had he gotten there following the 2013 season. 

It just depends on how Crabtree's body can handle the punishment. Or, more succinctly: if it can handle the punishment. 

I believe NFL teams worry a bit too much about gambles like this. Every year, teams like San Francisco and New England are praised for drafting injured or recovering players who slipped in the draft. Dominique Easley. Brandon Thomas. Marcus Lattimore. They won't always work out. But when you're already getting an implied discount on a player who should be valued more highly because of injury, it seems silly that teams would rather head into the season with, say, Damaris Johnson or Riley Cooper in their top three receivers. 

Crabtree's situation is a bit more unique in that a torn Achilles is one of the worst injuries an NFL player can suffer. Eagles linebacker DeMeco Ryans tore his Achilles and, while he's still smart and savvy enough to be on an NFL roster, he's no longer the same kind of player he once was. Is Crabtree going to settle into that boat? 

He's also maneuvering a market that has flipped against wide receivers. Back-to-back deep rookie classes of wideouts have some NFL teams thinking they can turn the position into the discount zone they've turned running back into. While I don't think that will end up being the case, it's certainly a short-term problem for veteran wideouts looking to rebound. 

And sadly, that's the only role Crabtree has in the eyes of the NFL at this point. 

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

Rivers McCown is an NFL Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.