Predicting Green Bay Packers' Starting Lineup After the 1st Wave of Free Agency
After the first week of free agency, the Green Bay Packers roster isn't nearly as complete in terms of starters as other teams in league, as the Packers haven't filled their most critical needs through free agency.
Rather, general manager Ted Thompson will do that through the draft. While there are a few holes on the roster not even a player currently under contract could fill, such as inside linebacker and nose tackle, these predictions serve the purpose of identifying the positions the Packers still need to bolster.
After the draft and then again after training camp, we'll take another look at how the starting roster is shaping up. But for now, let's look at whom the Packers could start at each position. Some of those positions are essentially locked up, while others could be filled by one of the team's own unsigned free agents (such as B.J. Raji or Letroy Guion at nose tackle) or even a 2015 rookie.
Quarterback
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Starter: Aaron Rodgers
The question heading into 2015 is will the Packers have the benefit of a healthy Aaron Rodgers for 16 games? If the answer is "yes," it almost certainly means the team will play well into January. And even if the answer is "no," that's still a possibility.
Yes, the stat sheet will tell us that Rodgers played 16 games in 2014, but anyone who watched those games knows he wasn't healthy.
Rodgers was listed on the Packers' injury report four times last season for a hamstring in Week 10 and a calf in Week 17, the divisional round and the conference championship.
The organization held its breath when, in the second quarter of the Week 17 matchup against the Detroit Lions, Rodgers went down awkwardly and was carted back to the locker room. One of the highlights of the 2014 season was when he returned in the second half to lead the team to victory and clinch the NFC North.
The Packers won that matchup in spite of Rodgers' injury as well as the divisional-round playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys after it, but it's hard to know if the conference championship against the Seattle Seahawks would have gone differently had Rodgers been 100 percent.
Rodgers threw for the most yards (4,381) since his record-setting 2011 season in 2014, and his five interceptions were an all-time career low. His completion percentage, however, fell to 65.6 percent, the lowest it's been since 2009, and injuries very well may have affected that.
If Rodgers is healthy for all 16 games in 2015, look for him to have one of his most accurate seasons to date.
Running Back
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Starter: Eddie Lacy
Eddie Lacy continues to get better, and as he does so, the Packers offense benefits from being a multidimensional attack.
Though Lacy had fewer yards in his sophomore season (1,139) than he did his rookie year despite playing in all 16 games, he improved in the areas in which you want to see improvement out of a second-year back.
Lacy's average yards per attempt jumped to 4.6 in 2014 from 4.1 in 2013, and his eight breakaway runs of 20 yards or more also increased from just three such runs in 2013.
Lacy's attempts per game also decreased in 2014 to 15.4, down from 18.9 in 2013. And though it seems like more Lacy in each game is a good thing, this demonstrates a wise awareness by head coach Mike McCarthy that it's important to keep the bruising back fresh.
Per the Journal Sentinel's Tyler Dunne, Lacy has already claimed that he won't change his hard-hitting running style out of fear of injuries, so it then becomes McCarthy's responsibility to monitor his use to maintain his health.
Grading out as Pro Football Focus' No. 4 running back in the league in 2014, Lacy averaged 2.8 yards after contact per attempt, demonstrating an ability to keep his legs churning and always looking for those extra yards.
If he too can stay healthy despite his bruising style, expect 2015 to be Lacy's best season yet.
Wide Receiver
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Starters: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams
They were the most productive receiver duo in the league in 2014, and they will remain under contract together until 2018 thanks to the skilled offseason maneuvering of general manger Ted Thompson.
Nelson and Cobb combined for 2,806 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns in 2014 in the regular season. They were the only two receivers from the same team to finish the season in the top 10 in scoring (the Denver Broncos had wide receiver Demaryius Thomas and tight end Julius Thomas finish in the top 10).
Those 25 regular-season touchdowns set a new franchise record, breaking the record of 24 touchdowns previously set by Nelson and Greg Jennings in 2011.
In addition to the spectacle that was Nelson and Cobb last season, Adams was also something to behold. The rookie, selected in the second round of the 2014 draft, had three touchdowns of his own over 38 receptions and 446 yards. He has proved himself to be a productive No. 3 receiver and should have that spot locked down after training camp.
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Tight End
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Starter: Richard Rodgers
If the Packers draft a tight end in the first few rounds of the 2015 draft, there's a chance that player could compete with Richard Rodgers in training camp for the starting spot. Ideally, a starting tight end should be a skilled pass-catcher as well as blocker, and the latter is an area in which Rodgers needs to improve.
However, among the players currently under contract with Green Bay, Rodgers looks like the starting nod at tight end.
The other Rodgers from California had a slow start to the 2014 season. In Week 1 through Week 8, he started four games but had just seven catches for 111 yards and zero touchdowns. Per Pro Football Focus, he played 214 snaps during that time.
In the second half of the season, Rodgers played 277 snaps and totaled 114 yards over 13 receptions for two touchdowns.
He also had a huge touchdown catch for the team in the divisional round against the Dallas Cowboys, earning high praise from his quarterback.
"He's got incredible hands; I daresay the best hands on the team," Aaron Rodgers said, via Robert Zizzo of the Green Bay Press-Gazette. "He went through a stretch in training camp where he didn't drop a pass. Yeah, he's an exceptional player with great potential for us."
If he can improve in blocking, Rodgers could be a solid starter for Green Bay in 2015.
Offensive Line
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Starters: David Bakhtiari (LT), Josh Sitton (LG), Corey Linsley (C), T.J. Lang (RG), Bryan Bulaga (RT)
If all goes well, these five players could comprise the starting offensive line unit until 2017.
With the re-signing of right tackle Bryan Bulaga during free agency, the Packers ensured that the 2014 offensive line configuration, which was the best of Mike McCarthy's tenure, will return in 2015 and beyond.
Sitton and Lang finished among the top five guards in the league last season, per Pro Football Focus, only letting up three and zero sacks respectively. The rookie Linsley excelled at the center position, grading out as the fifth-best center in the league, per Pro Football Focus, and developing an easy rapport with Aaron Rodgers.
This unit has helped the Packers excel in both the passing game and the running game.
According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards formula, the Packers offensive line was the eighth-best in the league in run blocking last season.
And per Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking efficiency metric, Green Bay's offensive line was the second-best in the league in 2014 in pass protection, allowing just 112 total pressures and 18 sacks.
Defensive Line
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Starters: Datone Jones (LDE), B.J. Raji (NT), Mike Daniels (RDE)
One week into free agency, the Packers have no clear anchor for their defensive line. The only player currently under contract with Green Bay who could fill that role is Mike Pennel.
Pennel is the right size (6'4", 332 lbs), but his inexperience would make him questionable to start. He played 181 snaps at defensive end in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, but he didn't show enough promise to become the anchor of the line.
It seems likely, however, that out of free agents Raji and Letroy Guion, who started at nose tackle in 2014 while Raji nursed a torn bicep, the Packers will re-sign one this offseason, and that player would be likely to start.
On either end, Jones and Daniels should step back into their starting roles (in the base defense) from last season without missing a beat. Daniels has quietly become one of the NFL's best defensive ends. He graded out No. 8 among 3-4 defensive ends in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, with six sacks, 11 hits and 24 hurries.
Jones earned more playing time in 2014; his total snaps were 323 last season compared to 263 in 2013, with three starts after having none his rookie season. However, he was still used primarily in pass-rushing situations, and as a former first-round pick, his goal in 2015 will be to prove he can be an every-down player as Daniels has done.
Linebacker
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Starters: Clay Matthews (LOLB), 2015 Rookie (LILB), Sam Barrington (MLB), Julius Peppers (ROLB)
The starting lineup for Green Bay's linebackers in all honestly serves little purpose. There are few situations in which only these linebackers will be on the field and at these positions.
Though Matthews will still be a starting outside linebacker in the base defense, he'll continue to spend time inside in 2015. Certainly, Matthews' presence will help the Packers assimilate the mystery rookie who occupies the starting spot opposite Sam Barrington—the only position at this point in time at which I have projected a rookie to start.
But Matthews played on the inside mostly in third-down situations in 2014, and the Packers need a run-stopper on first and second downs.
In terms of what kind of player they'll target in the draft, head coach Mike McCarthy wants someone who can do it all, from run stopping to pass rushing to special teams.
“I think the first thing you’ve got to ask yourself is how many of these guys play four downs? That’s what I look at as the head coach,” McCarthy said during the combine, via ESPN Wisconsin's Jason Wilde. “I think it would be nice to have more of those guys that can play (four downs)."
On the outside, when Matthews moves inside, expect Mike Neal and Nick Perry to continue to get meaningful snaps. They had 654 and 367 each respectively last season, per Pro Football Focus. McCarthy and defensive coordinator Dom Capers ran the five-linebacker NASCAR package often last season to get their best players on the field more often.
They'll have that same personnel again this season, so expect to see lots of linebackers in action.
Cornerback
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Starters: Casey Hayward (LCB), Sam Shields (RCB)
The big question in Green Bay heading into the second week of free agency is who will replace veteran cornerback Tramon Williams on the outside?
The Packers will certainly look to draft a cornerback (or even two) in the draft, but Ted Thompson has historically preferred to select cornerbacks in the later rounds. Demetri Goodson was a sixth-round pick in 2014, and Williams was an undrafted free agent.
While there's a chance a rookie from this year's class could compete for and win the available starting outside job, expect the Packers to give Casey Hayward a shot.
Hayward played 225 of his 470 total snaps (or 48 percent) in the slot in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, but he had three interceptions: the same number Williams had in 1,158 total snaps.
Hayward has demonstrated that he's a playmaker, and while having two 5'11" starting outside corners isn't ideal in a division with Calvin Johnson (6'5"), Alshon Jeffery (6'3"), Cordarrelle Patterson (6'2") and now Mike Wallace (6'0"), Hayward makes up in play what he lacks in height.
The fact that Thompson allowed both Davon House and Williams to walk in free agency suggests that Hayward may be ready for a bigger role.
Shields allowed opposing receivers a catch rate of just 51.9 percent last season, one of the lowest in the league among all cornerbacks, per Pro Football Focus. But his passes defended (nine) and interceptions (two) fell from 2014, and he'll have to prove in 2015 that he hasn't gotten complacent after signing his big-ticket contract extension.
Safety
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Starters: Morgan Burnett (SS), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (FS)
The safety group didn't produce a single interception in 2013, which had a ripple effect through the entire Packers secondary.
That changed last season.
Burnett and Clinton-Dix each had one pick, while Micah Hyde had two. Burnett's performance also improved dramatically from 2013; he had 130 combined tackles, a career high, 1.5 sacks and four passes defended. Pro Football Focus graded him the No. 16 safety in the league.
Clinton-Dix had a remarkable rookie season, but it was in the playoffs where he really began to shine. The rookie had a huge part in keeping the Packers in the game in the conference championship against the Seattle Seahawks, with two interceptions of Russell Wilson. He also had three passes defended in that game, half of his regular-season total.
Safety play as a whole improved in 2014 thanks to those two starters, but they also demonstrated they can up the intensity in the postseason, which is always what a team hopes for from its starters.
Special Teams
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Starters: Mason Crosby (K), Tim Masthay (P, H), Brett Goode (LS), Randall Cobb (PR), Micah Hyde (KR)
Don't be surprised to see starters getting more involved in special teams in 2015—even the Packers' $40 million receiver, Randall Cobb.
After the Packers fired special teams coordinator Shawn Slocum and promoted Ron Zook, head coach Mike McCarthy announced in a news conference he would give up play-calling for the offense—in part to work on fixing the special teams unit, which was ranked last in the league in The Dallas Morning News' special teams rankings.
In particular, the Packers were worst in the league in blocked kicks allowed, with seven, per the rankings.
"I think we need to adjust our special teams philosophy," McCarthy said during the combine, via ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. "We had starters play more on special teams [last] year than we had in the past, and that will continue to increase. Special teams needs to be an asset, not something that we use as a stepping stone offense or defense."
That could lead to players like Cobb and Hyde taking a more active role in returns.
Crosby had one of his best seasons in recent years in 2014, making 81.8 percent of his field goals. That's lower than his 89.2 percentage in 2013, but it's his third-highest percentage in his eight-season career.
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