2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Kansas City Chiefs Stars
The Kansas City Chiefs reportedly will add Jeremy Maclin, attempting to improve their 2015 fantasy outlook overall. He should ease the strain Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles felt carrying the Chiefs offense last season.
Expectations are that Maclin is leaving Philadelphia for Kansas City, according to ESPN’s Chris Mortensen via Twitter.
"The Eagles' wild ride will continue: Jeremy Maclin plans to reunite with Andy Reid in Kansas City once free agent market opens Tuesday.
— Chris Mortensen (@mortreport) March 9, 2015
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The move will reunite Maclin with head coach Andy Reid, hopefully infusing some life in a group of wide receivers that failed to score a single touchdown in 2014.
Sources disagree on the last time such a ridiculous rash of ineptitude infected a wide-receiving unit. Tadd Haislop of Sporting News reported this feat of incompetence hadn’t been reproduced since the 1964 New York Giants, except Pro Football Reference lists Frank Gifford (three TD catches) as a flanker that season. Vahe Gregorian of The Kansas City Star reported the 1950 Pittsburgh Steelers were the last team to forget those guys split out wide were eligible receivers.
Either way it’s an inexcusable stat in the pass-friendly modern NFL.
General manager John Dorsey acknowledged the embarrassment, according to Chris Burke of SI.com.
"The receivers are going to take some shots because there were no touchdowns. We all know that. Those guys worked their fannies off. It is hard to play in the National Football League. [Bowe] will probably tell you himself that he did not live up to his high standards but now we have 2015 to come back on.
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Maclin’s signing will be a deft maneuver considering the Chiefs’ perilous salary-cap situation, according to Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap:
"Not many teams seem to land in a position like the Chiefs are in right now. They are faced with the decision of the cap dictating difficult cuts or perhaps not the best terms if they keep the player on the roster. Unlike teams of the past with tough choices like the Raiders, Jets, and Colts this is far more complex because the Chiefs are highly competitive and filled with a mix of young and old that seems prepared to challenge now for at least a division crown.
The wrong decisions though can really damage the team in the future, pigeonholing the team into the 2015 roster for the next few seasons without opportunity to really change much. I’ve seen plenty of teams go through that and it is not a pleasant experience and extremely frustrating for the fanbase. This will be a team to watch over the next few weeks to see what direction they are headed for in free agency.
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Any additional help for Kansas City’s remaining fantasy stars will probably come in the draft.
Honorable Mention
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Terrelle Pryor, QB
Pryor’s addition to Kansas City’s lineup is simply a note of passing interest.
Moving on…
Armon Binns, WR
Kansas City added Binns to the practice squad in September, but he didn’t see any game action. The 2012 undrafted free agent from Cincinnati missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL.
His inability to crack such a mediocre wide receiver corps is troubling from a fantasy perspective.
Cyrus Gray, RB
Gray is currently recovering from a torn ACL suffered in early November.
He’s listed as the No. 3 running back on the Chiefs’ depth chart, but he bears no fantasy attention at this point.
Frankie Hammond, WR
Hammond did nothing in three injury-replacement starts in 2014.
He’ll likely be fighting for a roster spot in 2015, meaning you should keep him off yours.
Junior Hemingway, WR
Hemingway earned his third NFL start in 2014 but failed to post significant numbers once again.
He’s more valuable to the Chiefs on special teams, meaning he has no value for fantasy owners in 2015.
Demetrius Harris, TE
Harris—a second-year, undrafted prospect out of Wisconsin-Milwaukee—is poised to fight for Kansas City’s No. 2 tight end spot behind Travis Kelce with Anthony Fasano out of the picture, according to Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star.
"Harris, who is listed at 6’7”, 230 pounds, caught three passes for 20 yards in eight games (three starts) before a foot injury ended his season. He would appear to be in the mix for the No. 2 job, though free agency and the draft could change that.
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Harris could be worth a dynasty stash if he wins the backup role given Alex Smith’s proclivity for low-risk passes to tight ends.
Da’Rick Rogers, WR
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The Chiefs are the third NFL franchise to take on Rogers, signing the troubled talent in January, according to ESPN.com’s Field Yates on Twitter.
"Source: the Chiefs have indeed signed both QB Terrelle Pryor and WR Da'Rick Rodgers, confirming multiple reports.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 8, 2015"
The University of Tennessee dumped Rogers for admitted marijuana use, but Buffalo Bills scout Tom Roth declared him the best of the Volunteers’ wide receivers, according to Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star.
"He’s the most polished of those three Tennessee receivers [Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson] in my opinion in terms of route running and all that. He reminds me physically of Eric Moulds, that body type. That’s what I thought when I saw him. A big, physical, muscular guy. Explosive. He had a 39-inch vertical. He ran 4.48 at the Combine. He’s got the physical stuff.
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Rogers spent most of 2014 on the street after the Colts cut him over a DUI.
He makes an interesting dynasty prospect in 2015 if he can clean up his act off the field.
De’Anthony Thomas, WR
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Thomas replaced Dexter McCluster as Kansas City’s multifaceted offensive weapon.
It’s a fancy name, but so far the results are the same.
The 2014 fourth-rounder from Oregon occasionally displayed his head-turning speed and agility, but he totaled just 37 touches and one rushing touchdown on the season.
Andy Reid will have to include Thomas far more often in the 2015 game plan before he gains fantasy relevance.
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Albert Wilson, WR
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Wilson is set to be the No. 2 wide receiver on Kansas City’s depth chart.
The Chiefs already released Donnie Avery and A.J. Jenkins, plus Jason Avant is an unrestricted free agent. Dwayne Bowe is also expected to be released for some much-needed cap relief.
Wilson went undrafted in 2014 because he’s a small receiver (5’9”, 200 lbs) from a small program—the Division I (FBS) Georgia State Panthers. John Dorsey hopes the underdog can develop into a solid WR2, according to Adam Teicher of ESPN.com.
"You began to see what we saw, a guy who knows how to play the game of football. It’s not too big for him. He can catch the ball. He can run after the catch.
He’s got a chance to be a pretty good player. I think what you do is you watch him grow in the offseason. Watch him in training camp. In my heart of hearts, I know what I think he can be and I think he’s a pretty good player. I think he has a chance to grow and get better and with David Culley as his [position] coach I feel very strongly that he can develop into that.
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Wilson saw sparse action until December, when he racked up 12 catches for 209 yards in the ever-important fantasy playoffs, Weeks 14-16.
Like Dorsey, fantasy owners should curb expectations. Plant Wilson on the bench in deep dynasty/sleeper leagues unless he earns more attention in preseason.
Dwayne Bowe, WR
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We’ve been waiting all offseason for the other shoe to drop, but Kansas City still hasn’t unloaded Bowe despite reports like Ian Rapoport’s of NFL Media via Twitter.
"One player not yet on the free agent market: #Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe. The expectation is that he will be, unless Chiefs can trade him.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 5, 2015
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The Chiefs are currently $2.3 million over the cap. Cutting or trading Bowe would save $5 million of his scheduled $14 million 2015 cap cost. That’s not a ton of savings, but it puts Kansas City under the cap before March 10 in compliance with league rules.
It’s a pretty easy call given the breadth of Bowe’s shortfall since signing the six-year, $56 million contract in 2012 that still rates sixth-most lucrative among wide receivers.
Bowe inked the deal coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, totaling 20 touchdown passes from the mediocre arms of Kyle Orton, Tyler Palko and Matt Cassel. He averaged just 742.7 yards and 2.7 touchdowns over the following three seasons.
The eight-year veteran out of LSU finished 62nd among wide receivers in fantasy scoring last season.
Bowe is still officially a Chief as of this posting, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Twitter he will be released.
"Indications point to Chiefs releasing WR Dwayne Bowe this week.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 10, 2015
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Bowe will be 31 in September. He warrants a flex spot on 2015 fantasy rosters at best, and only if he lands in a strong passing offense.
Knile Davis, RB
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Davis played well in his first two years as Jamaal Charles’ primary backup. The 2013 third-rounder out of Arkansas isn’t as quick and elusive as Charles, but he can still break long runs for touchdowns on his 5’10”, 227-pound frame.
The debate is whether Davis would be a better running back in a No. 1 role or if his performance merits his RB2 status. The “running backs need rhythm” argument isn’t at all that persuasive in Kansas City’s case with an All-Pro locked in at RB1.
He’s averaged a ho-hum 3.5 yards per carry in both seasons, earning a dead-last grade among running backs from Pro Football Focus in 2014 (57th).
Still, Davis is a must-handcuff for Charles owners, given the injury struggles he’s suffered over the years. Davis carries little fantasy value beyond that in 2015.
Alex Smith, QB
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Smith finished his second season in Kansas City with the second-best passer rating of his career (93.4). The nine-year veteran will never be confused with a gunslinger, however, averaging just 7.1 yards per attempt—tied for 22nd out of 39 eligible quarterbacks per Pro Football Focus.
Smith’s inability and/or unwillingness to stretch the field contributed to the receiving corps' dubious distinction of going an entire season without a touchdown catch.
Smith hardly deserves all the attention for this lapse, considering Kansas City has or will release the bulk of its existing wide receivers by the time official team workouts convene in April. But his conservative style is stifling from a fantasy perspective.
Smith finished 19th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks in 2014, averaging just 12.8 points per game.
Take him as a backup if you must in 2015, but don’t expect Jeremy Maclin to suddenly turn Smith into a viable fantasy starter.
Jeremy Maclin, WR
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The Chiefs will reportedly pay Maclin $11 million annually when he signs, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter via Twitter.
"Chiefs' deal with Jeremy Maclin will be worth $11 million per season, per source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2015
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Maclin would tie Larry Fitzgerald for the eighth-richest contract among wide receivers at that rate.
The Eagles lost out on their 2009 first-rounder out of Missouri over money, according to The Inquirer’s Jeff McLane via Twitter.
"Jeremy Maclin wanted around $11 mil a year. #Eagles got to $9 mil during season. He won't get to $11 in free agency w/ Randall Cobb ahead.
— Jeff McLane (@Jeff_McLane) March 8, 2015
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Kansas City is acquiring Maclin in his prime—the six-year vet turns 27 in May. The question remaining is: Can he do any better than Dwayne Bowe with a ball-control coach and quarterback?
Leaving Chip Kelly’s scheme for Andy Reid’s is not a positive for a wide receiver in fantasy terms. Expect Maclin to fall off his top-10 scoring pace from 2014 (11.4 points per game). Draft him conservatively as a WR2 in the upper-middle rounds.
Travis Kelce, TE
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Kelce broke out in 2014, leading all Chiefs receivers with 67 catches, 862 yards and five touchdowns. He finished eighth in fantasy scoring among tight ends, averaging 6.8 points per game.
The 2013 third-rounder out of Cincinnati arguably could have produced more had Anthony Fasano not vultured four touchdowns. Kelce owners won’t have to worry about Fasano in 2015 since the cash-strapped Chiefs sent him packing for some cap relief.
It’s obvious the Chiefs have faith in the potential fantasy stud, according to Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star.
"It looks like the Chiefs are paving the way for Travis Kelce to be their undisputed, lead tight end in 2015. He started 11 games, but with Fasano out of the mix, the Chiefs will clearly be relying on him to be an every-down threat.
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Kelce is the perfect weapon for Alex Smith’s high-percentage tendencies. He easily makes a solid, second-tier TE1 heading into the 2015 fantasy season.
Jamaal Charles, RB
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Charles maintained his upper-echelon fantasy value in 2014 despite a reshuffled offensive line and a complete lack of a passing game. The two-time, first-team All Pro finished seventh among running backs in fantasy scoring, averaging 12.3 points weekly.
Charles’ 2014 grade (5.0) from Pro Football Focus marked his lowest finish in his five career 1,000-yard seasons. The decrease draws as much blame from the mass exodus from 2013’s offensive line as the wear and tear on his 28-year-old body.
Kansas City ranked 13th in run-blocking in 2013, according to PFF. The 2014 unit bombed with a 27th-ranked grade after failing to serviceably replace Geoff Schwartz, Brandon Albert and Jon Asamoah, according to Khalid Elsayed of PFF.
Chiefs wide receivers exacerbated the decline by finishing the season with zero touchdowns. Defenses won’t stay honest against such a jaundiced downfield passing-game.
Durability is a concern as the elusive 5’11”, 199-pound back heads into his eighth season. Charles struggled through two ankle/foot injuries in 2014, according to Adam Teicher of ESPN.com. The injuries bookended an otherwise productive fantasy season with single-digit scores.
Charles should rate as a top-five running back on every cheat sheet approaching the 2015 fantasy draft. Just be aware of the pitfalls of diminishing health and a depleted supporting cast if you make him your RB1.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats courtesy of ESPN.com, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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