The Biggest Question Remaining for Every 2015 NBA Title Contender to Answer
This deep into the NBA season, every team is still trying to answer its fair share of unresolved questions.
Even title contenders.
These questions can be anything. They range from inconsequential afterthoughts to dire dilemmas. Typically, they address a longstanding issue or problem.
Are the San Antonio Spurs in trouble? Do the Los Angeles Clippers know what defense is? Are Stephen Curry's gold shoes too tight? Anything along those lines.
Lodging these inquiries isn't especially difficult. Answering them is exponentially harder. Fortunately for us, our job is not to provide the answers—just the questions themselves, and perhaps some suggestions.
Determining which teams qualify as title contenders is the toughest part of our undertaking, a task we will complete by asking a question of our own: Which squads are capable of reaching the NBA Finals?
Spoiler: Not the Dallas Mavericks (dipping offense), Toronto Raptors (implosive defense), Chicago Bulls (too many injuries) or Washington Wizards (all-time pretenders).
Armed with this necessary knowledge, we push forward, into a land where collective excellence and lingering doubt cohabitate.
San Antonio Spurs: Do We Belong Here?
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Ask someone to sing the ballad of the 2014-15 Spurs and he or she will likely engage you in some sort of blank, glossy-eyed stare or start listing the ingredients in grape-scented glue just to change the topic.
In other words, they won't know what to say. The Spurs' season has been that confusing.
We want to call them championship contenders because they're keeping their heads above water in a fierce Western Conference free-for-all and Tony Parker is showing signs of life. They are also tied for the league's sixth-best record since Feb. 1.
At the same time, their recent run of good fortune is punctuated by wins over bottom-feeders (Sacramento Kings, Denver Nuggets) and emaciated rosters (Phoenix Suns, Bulls), and they're in line to nab a No. 7 seed, likely setting up a first-round date with the Memphis Grizzlies or Houston Rockets.
Conventional wisdom demands we give them the benefit of the doubt. Frankly, so does their performance. They rank in the top 11 of offensive and defensive efficiency and are within striking distance of shooting into the West's top five. Their preferred starting lineup of Tim Duncan, Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Danny Green and Parker is also 9-2 together.
What the aging and slightly inconsistent Spurs are looking for is confirmation—reassurance that their 7-11 record against West playoff squads is no reason to fret.
Eight of their final 20 games come against those outfits, so for better or worse, clarity is en route.
Oklahoma City Thunder: When Is It KD Time?
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Kevin Durant hasn't played since Feb. 19 after undergoing another procedure on his injured right foot. His absence has done little to derail the Oklahoma City Thunder's postseason hopes, because his sidekick is a mutant ninja.
Russell Westbrook is doing his best Oscar Robertson impression, averaging 34.4 points, 10.9 rebounds, 11.6 assists and 1.9 steals during this nine-game stretch. Sure, he's also committing 5.1 turnovers, but the Thunder are 6-3 through these contests and remain in possession of the West's No. 8 seed.
Not rushing Durant back seems to be the obvious answer here, yet to what point? The New Orleans Pelicans are lurking in the not-too-distant shadows with a healthy Anthony Davis. Only one game separates them from that eighth and final playoff spot.
Having Durant would turn the Thunder's slim lead into a stronghold. Despite missing more games this season than he did through his first seven combined, he's remained productive when on the floor. He also began "intensifying" his individual workout, according to The Oklahoman's Anthony Slater, suggesting a return is nigh.
Still, enough value cannot be placed upon having him well rested leading into the playoffs. Moving up from eighth place is virtually impossible at this stage, so if the Thunder can swing it without him until just before the postseason, they're better off.
As for whether this is possible, that's something they need to figure out.
Golden State Warriors: Thunder or No Thunder?
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Yessirree Bob, this is the question.
Those wondering whether the Golden State Warriors should play super small more needn't brood over the answer any longer: It's a wholehearted yes, a bajillion times over. They allow a staunch 92.9 points per 100 possessions when playing Draymond Green at center, per 82games.com, a mark well below their league-leading 97.6.
Most Warriors-related questions are overrated. They have everything. In addition to an impregnable defense, they rank first in offensive efficiency and pace to go along with an Association-best record. And their potential reward for all of this?
Facing off against the Thunder once the playoffs begin.
Now, even if Oklahoma City is healthy, Golden State still projects as the better team. But with the slumping Grizzlies still mathematically within reach of the West's top spot, it's fair to wonder if the Warriors would be better off slipping to second place and squaring off against the Mavericks, Spurs, Clippers or Houston Rockets.
Although it's unlikely head coach Steve Kerr will have his team enter the seldom-mentioned high-end tank mode, he seems to have given Golden State's standing some thought.
“If we were fighting for a playoff spot, I’d be grinding guys a little harder, but we’re in a really good position,” he said after the Warriors lost a winnable game against the Brooklyn Nets, per Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle. “It’s more important for us to keep everyone healthy and fresh. If that costs us a game or two, that’s fine.”
Indeed, it's fine. You might even say the Warriors are best served costing themselves a game or five on top of that game or two—you know, for the sake of keeping Stephen Curry and crew "healthy and fresh."
Atlanta Hawks: Is Jeff Teague the Postseason Go-to Guy?
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Let's be clear: The Atlanta Hawks absolutely, positively have players they can depend on with the outcomes of games in doubt—three of them, to be exact.
Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague are all stars in their own right. Late-game consideration will even be given to Kyle Korver, who remains a matchup headache because of his ability to shoot and pass. Anyone arguing in favor of Pero Antic is free to show themselves out.
Forced to choose the one player these Hawks will lean on in the playoffs, when their season hangs in the balance, we have to roll with Teague. His usage rate in the clutch—last two minutes of games in which no team is ahead or behind by more than five points (minimum 20 appearances)—ranks ninth among all point guards, while his assist rate checks in at second, behind only John Wall.
Combine this with a true shooting percentage (58.5)—cumulative measurement of two-point, three-point and free-throw accuracy—that dwarfs esteemed colleagues like Chris Paul (41.5), Damian Lillard (42.6) and Wall (54.7), and Teague is, without question, Atlanta's foremost go-to weapon.
While he's found himself in enough situations to warrant such status, the playoffs are a different beast. Games aren't just won or lost; seasons are made or broken. The Hawks need to figure out whether he is up to the challenge or if a more seasoned veteran like Horford is their better bet under those circumstances.
And with big-time tilts against the Warriors, Spurs, Thunder and Bulls still to come, testing Teague further shouldn't be an issue.
Los Angeles Clippers: Can the Defense Hold?
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It seems like forever ago the Clippers ranked within the top seven of defensive efficiency. In all reality, it was only last season. Hyperbolic nostalgia is the offshoot of how bad they've been this time around.
The Clippers rank 16th in points allowed per 100 possessions and have, at different points, struggled to protect the paint, impede dribble drives and guard against three-pointers—things Blake Griffin's eventual return won't help. The Clippers defense is statistically much better when he's not on the floor.
DeAndre Jordan is their points-prevention lifeline. It says a lot that he ranks second in defensive win shares while playing on what is, at best, an average defensive team. His mere presence is also a big reason why the Clippers rank first in opponent shot attempts near the rim.
Head coach Doc Rivers, for his part, cannot say enough good things about Jordan's exploits, per Clippers.com's Rowan Kavner:
"DJ’s been playing great defense all year long for us. He’s just been phenomenal. ...
He really is our 'Minister of Defense'. He’s all about getting it done on the defensive end of the floor. He’s constantly preaching defense to our players all the time - he is always talking about it, and that’s why he truly is our 'Minister of Defense'.
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This "Minister of Defense," though, is pretty much just preaching to himself. Too often the Clippers are left relying on their league-leading offense, and this one-sided dependence just doesn't cut it. They are 5-12 when scoring under 100 points and 4-9 against fellow top-seven offenses.
That's a problem—one the Clippers must address from within ahead of the postseason.
Memphis Grizzlies: Will This Slump Ever End?
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Lately, the Memphis Grizzlies are doing more grimacing than grinding.
Or, for that matter, winning.
Here is Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley on their struggles:
"The big-picture problem is this isn't an isolated incident for the grit-and-grind crew. The Grizzlies are just 5-5 over their last 10 games, a stretch littered with unimpressive victories and head-scratching defeats.
Memphis has been outscored by an average of 4.1 points per game during this run. It would be one thing if the Grizzlies were matching up with murderers' row, but it's quite another when they're losing to the short-handed Pellies, banged-up Oklahoma City Thunder, directionless Sacramento Kings and unproven Utah Jazz.
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Most of the Grizzlies' problems start from the jump these days. Their new starting lineup of Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Jeff Green, Courtney Lee and Mike Conley is bereft of floor spacing and being outscored by 3.4 points per 100 possessions when sharing the floor.
Like the Spurs, the Grizzlies are given the benefit of the doubt. No one has the audacity to coin them pretenders. They have always played an ugly style of basketball, and that's not about to change. The pace will remain slow, three-point totals will stay curbed, and they will push the boundaries of clogged lanes.
But the Rockets are creeping up on their second-place property, and this style, however effective now, has yet to vault the Grizzlies into the NBA Finals. The last thing they'll want to do is enter the postseason playing .500 basketball as they are now, only to have their lost momentum derailed even further by a fellow powerhouse.
That's the kind of stuff first-round exits are made of.
Portland Trail Blazers: Is There Enough Here?
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Injuries are defining the Portland Trail Blazers' season.
After using just two starting lineups for 2013-14, the Blazers have been forced to chew through 15 this season. At one point or another, the injury bug has afflicted four members of their usual starting five—LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez.
Matthews is the latest to go down with a torn left Achilles, sidelining him for the rest of this season. The Arron Afflalo trade now looms large for the Blazers, but there's no denying they're at a familiar disadvantage.
Matthews' departure leaves them battling the same old depth issues, further damaging, if not ruining, their championship pursuit. As Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney writes:
"Losing the depth that comes in having both guards available is painful in itself. To also deal with the specific deficits in Afflalo's game relative to Matthews stretches the Blazers even further. Portland draws so much of its power from continuity that the exchange of Matthews for Afflalo is more than that of an elite marksman for a slightly shakier shooter, that of a dogged defender for a less committed one. ...
That comes at a cost – one Portland can only hope to bear through chemistry while pushing through series after series. A championship shouldn't be ruled out, but the Blazers' probabilities just got unquestionably tighter.
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In the absence of supreme depth, there is consistency. Stability. The knowledge that what you lack in options, you make up for in chemistry.
Portland's synergistic balance has withstood blow after blow. Aldridge is still powering through a thumb injury, and Batum is playing out the worst season of his career. Now, there's this.
Losing Matthews may be one gut punch too many. The Blazers dropped their first game without him, bending to the inexperienced Minnesota Timberwolves.
What follows will be a crash course in trying to ensure that loss, that blunder, is not a sign of disappointment to come.
Houston Rockets: Where Does Dwight Howard Fit In?
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Welcoming back a three-time Defensive Player of the Year and categorical superstar is not a bad thing.
It is, however, an adjustment.
Dwight Howard hasn't played since Jan. 23, when he logged eight minutes against the Suns. Including that game, Houston is 22-9 without him, compared to 21-11 with him. And because Howard has only just resumed basketball activities, per ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins, he will inevitably return to a team that has both played and won more games without him.
Any time that's the situation, there is an adjustment period. It's just that the Rockets won't have many opportunities to adapt with the playoffs on the horizon.
They'll need to reintegrate his post-ups and re-acclimate themselves to the (slightly) slower pace at which they'll be forced to play on the fly. This is a tall order for an offense that, despite James Harden's MVP explosion, is already underachieving.
None of which is meant to downplay the significance of Howard's return. The Rockets' top-flight defense becomes even stingier with him on the floor, and he still registers as one of the game's best rim protectors. Of the 79 players who contest at least five point-blank shots per game, he ranks ninth in field-goal percentage allowed.
Nevertheless, the Rockets have a good thing going with less than 20 games to play. Second place is in their sights, and Harden is playing at an all-alien level.
Once Howard returns, whenever that happens, their job is to make sure that doesn't change.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Do K-Love and Consistency Go Together?
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Life is pretty good for the Cleveland Cavaliers these days. They own the league's fourth-best offense overall as well as the best record since Jan. 15, when they were a distressing 19-20. Life is so good, in fact, not even Kevin Love's roller-coaster season needs to level off for them to legitimately contend.
Not to say it wouldn't help, because it would. A lot.
Consider these numbers: 13, 14, 22, 12, 21, 17, 16, 24, 16, 8.
No, we're not playing bingo. Those are Love's point totals through his past 10 games. They average out to 16.3 points per night, which is right in line with his actual average of 16.9.
What a way to get there, though. He actually fails to reach his average more often than not. He has also tallied less than 15 points more times this season (24) than the previous three combined (15).
Throw in his declining usage rate and uptick in spot-up shooting, and it becomes clear he's suffering from third fiddle-itis.
Whether his state improves doesn't really matter. The Cavaliers can come out of the Eastern Conference while he wages war with his on-court identity. But life will be better still if Love can find a productive medium within an offensive model that calls for him to be the complementary stretch 4 he insists he's not.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played March 8 unless otherwise cited.
