Which NBA Coaching Job Is More Attractive: Orlando Magic or Denver Nuggets?
Unless Melvin Hunt and James Borrego blow the doors off during their interim head-coaching stints with the Denver Nuggets and Orlando Magic, respectively, there'll be a pair of intriguing openings for long-term candidates this summer.
There's a lot to be said for both organizations. The Magic are located in a place (little known fact) literally governed by the Disney corporation. There, all waffles, by law, must be Mickey Mouse-shaped. The weather's great, too. That's hard to beat.
The Nuggets have a built-in altitude advantage, a legacy of super fun, fast-paced basketball and the general awesomeness of Denver itself.
Quality of waffles and life are just a couple of considerations facing potential coaching options in those places, though. In addition, candidates must consider roster quality, expectations and overall degree of difficulty.
Let's break down whether Orlando or Denver is the best landing spot for a coach in search of his next gig.
Roster
In a way, talent—or at least the broad perception of its existence on the Magic roster—got Jacque Vaughn fired. By many accounts, Orlando underachieved. The Magic's core is also extremely young, and whether the contention that Vaughn failed to get the most out of his personnel is fair or not, it's hard to get past the raw potential of the roster.
Nikola Vucevic is already an All-Star-caliber center at age 24, though, he was unfortunately snubbed this season. Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton, lottery picks in each of the last two drafts, are both starter-quality guards with tons of promise. There are also wings and forwards aplenty, led by Tobias Harris, Maurice Harkless and last year's No. 4 overall pick, Aaron Gordon.
Orlando has a treasure trove of skilled, but perhaps not quite ready, players.
Denver, meanwhile, essentially has three core pieces: point guard Ty Lawson, forward Kenneth Faried and rookie center Jusuf Nurkic. None of the three are above-average defenders, and Faried's limited offensive game makes him a throwback power forward in all the wrong ways.
If you're looking only at raw basketball ability and potential for growth, the Magic have the clear advantage.
Of course, there are other factors that affect the quality of personnel. Character and attitude, for example.
"On numerous occasions, Shaw complained to Nuggets management about the maturity and professionalism of some of the players, but he was told to try to work through the issues," sources told ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne.
Lawson was benched for missing practice after his post-All-Star break flight from Las Vegas took off without him.
Say what you will about Orlando's literal lack of maturity (the Magic's entire core, comprising all of its top talent, is 24 or younger), but we certainly haven't heard any complaints about the team's professionalism or commitment—certainly not like the ones that plagued Shaw's tenure with the Nuggets.
Indiana Pacers forward David West framed the Denver situation bluntly, per Scott Agness of Vigilant Sports (NSFW language):
"David West on Brian Shaw being fired: 'That's b------t. No grownups on the roster. You can't win without grownups.'"
Paul George was milder, but his disbelief came through as well:
If you're a coach averse to headaches, Denver may not be the place for you.
Of course, there's no guarantee the Nuggets roster will maintain its current composition. Denver has plenty of cap flexibility this summer, and though Faried's costly deal makes him difficult to move, Lawson wouldn't go ignored on the market for long.
Orlando is similarly flexible.
Both the Magic and Nuggets own all of their own first-round picks going forward. They also have selections incoming from other teams in the relatively near future. Here's a breakdown of each squad's financial picture and draft-pick situation:
| Nuggets | $47,952,374 | 3: 2015 from Memphis, 2016 from New York, 2016 from Portland |
| Magic | $38,875,806 | 1: 2017 from LA Lakers |
It's key to note that all three of Denver's incoming picks have protections on them, per RealGM.com, but there's a good chance they'll collect on all of them by 2017.
Orlando's pick from the Los Angeles Lakers is top-five protected through 2018, but if things go right, it could be an unprotected first in 2019.
Though Orlando's present talent is greater, you could make the case that Denver has the better chance of improving through the draft and free agency.
The decisive factor may be this: Orlando has enough skill on the roster to be a playoff team next year. And the coaching change the Golden State Warriors made this past offseason showed us just how much a smarter approach to talent utilization matters. The Warriors went from 12th to second in offensive efficiency with virtually the same roster, thanks largely to the strategic influences of Alvin Gentry and Steve Kerr.
Orlando could enjoy a similar surge if the incoming coach pushes the right buttons.
Denver, on the other hand, doesn't possess the talent to get better as quickly. It's not like you can fashion a functional defense around a point guard and a power forward who have never shown the interest or ability to get stops. And offensively, it's hard to point to anyone other than Lawson with the potential to make a difference.
Advantage: Magic
Expectations
Here's where things get tricky.
Because the Magic are widely perceived to have the talent to win, management and fans might expect more immediate results in Orlando. The Nuggets, meanwhile, might be more patient because they must (or at least should) understand that the current roster isn't equipped to succeed.
Denver just watched a slow-it-down, defense-first coach try to implement his style on a roster that couldn't handle it. The personnel and philosophy didn't mesh, and even when Shaw agreed to pick up the pace in a way that might favor the talent on hand, it didn't lead to good results.
Put another way, Orlando likely believes it has the core it wants in place. Given the results of the past two seasons and the fact that they were sellers at the trade deadline, it's unlikely the Nuggets feel the same way.
And that will have an impact on expectations.
What's interesting is that Vaughn got a fairly long leash in Orlando. The narrative that pegged the Magic as up-and-comers was there last season, and a disappointment then didn't cost him his job. This year, it took a brutal stretch of two-way ineptitude to finally cause a change.
Maybe the Magic will be forgiving again.
Or not.
Here's B/R's Dan Favale: "Work still needs to be done, but this is a Magic team packed with possibility—enough incumbent promise to guarantee they're not searching for a sideline savior so much as they're after someone to take them where they're already built to go."
Favale's right. Orlando has what it needs. Whomever takes the job, he will be expected to turn all that talent into wins. And he'll probably have to do it far more quickly than the coach Denver picks will.
So if a coach is after some developmental leeway, the Nuggets are the better option.
Advantage:Nuggets
Wild Card
It'll be easier to reach the playoffs with the Magic than it will with the Nuggets.
As of March 3, Denver had two more wins than Orlando but was four-and-a-half games farther away from the No. 8 seed because, as we've seen for years now, the Eastern Conference just isn't as competitive as the West.
There's little reason to think that'll change next season. If anything, clubs like the New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz could get stronger. And outside of the aging San Antonio Spurs, it's difficult to peg a current West playoff team likely to slip in the near future.
So, if a coach wants to make the postseason, he should pick an Eastern Conference squad. Reaching the playoffs will bring its own set of pressures down the line, but it would be tough to find a coach who would shy away from burdens created by success.
When you consider the lower degree of difficulty and superior roster in Orlando, the less demanding expectations that would come with the Nuggets job don't count for much.
Of the two positions likely to be available this summer, the one in Orlando is clearly the best option.
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