Is Ndamukong Suh Really Worth a King's Ransom in Free Agency?

He was a perfect draft prospect.

He was named first-team All-Pro as a rookie.

If he's not the best defensive player in the NFL, he's one of a small handful at the top.

Ndamukong Suh wants to be paid a king's ransom. According to former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik, per Alex Marvez of Fox Sports, Suh could command as much as $125 million on a seven-year deal, a stunning $70 million of it guaranteed. Now that the Detroit Lions have declined to apply the franchise tag to Suh, some team is going to pony up.

But is he worth it?

Suh entered the league as a nearly bulletproof prospect. The Lions' then-defensive coordinator, Gunther Cunningham, gave Suh a perfect draft grade, per Justin Rogers of MLive.com. His senior season at Nebraska, he had 52 solo tackles and 33 assists, 49.5 of them for losses, and 12 sacks—4.5 of which came against Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Against a premier opponent, with a national TV audience watching and on-field glory at stake, Suh turned in an almost superhuman game. In the process, he boosted his draft stock immeasurably. Despite his incredible physique and undeniable upside, questions about his game could fairly be asked.

As ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert wrote at the time, Suh faced a transition from Nebraska's two-gap scheme, in which he could rely on his incredible upper-body strength to engage and discard blockers. Some evaluators preferred current Buccaneers tackle Gerald McCoy.

By popular reckoning, Suh answered all questions his rookie year. He racked up a stunning 10 sacks, an interception and three passes defensed. He made the Pro Bowl, got that All-Pro nod and was The Associated Press' slam-dunk choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

The endorsements quickly followed: Subway restaurants, Omaha Steaks. Suh's violent on-field play and soft-spoken, intelligent off-field persona made him a natural pitchman.

Closer observers, though, noted wildly inconsistent performances from Suh. Not long into his rookie season, Pro Football Focus made extensive note of Suh's reliance on pursuit rather than penetration to get his sacks, and a correlating lack of non-sack pressures. Suh also played nearly every snap for the depthless Lions, so he got a plethora of opportunities.

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

Suh's aggression in pursuit also worked against him in the run game. Grantland's Chris Brown detailed how the San Francisco 49ers ran through Suh with wham blocks in 2011. His on-field aggression became a real liability when he started racking up personal fouls, fines and suspensions for dirty play—most memorably, stomping on then-Green Bay Packers guard Evan Dietrich-Smith. 

Just looking at Suh's sack and tackle production is a great example of the trouble with evaluating defensive players.

As a rookie, Pro Football Focus charted Suh with exactly 1,000 snaps played, the most of any defensive tackle. They credited him with 11 sacks, six quarterback hits and 24 hurries. They graded him minus-0.7 overall, tied with Brodrick Bunkley for 32nd in a field of 76 qualifying tackles.

In 2011, PFF charted Suh at minus-2.9 overall, with four sacks, four hits and 27 hurries. In 2012, he improved to plus-15.2, fourth-best among tackles. In 2013, plus-32.8. In 2014, plus-27.5.

Officially, Suh's never topped—or even matched—his 10-sack rookie season. But in 2014, PFF charted Suh with eight sacks, 12 quarterback hits and 37 hurries on just 875 snaps. Not only is that far better pass-rush production, but Suh's plus-18.1 run-stopping grade was second-best in the entire NFL.

Play-by-play film review used to reveal Suh as a much lesser player than the numbers suggested. Now, it reveals him as a much greater one.

After five years in the NFL, Suh might be even more physically impressive today. He might have the trimmest waist of any 307-pound man on Earth. He just turned 28 and is in the prime of his career. He's also incredibly durable and reliable. Outside of a two-game suspension for the Dietrich-Smith incident in 2011, Suh has never missed a start.

As a pass-rushing three-technique 4-3 defensive tackle, Suh has few flaws and fewer peers.

Per Spotrac.com, only McCoy comes close to the kind of money Suh is seeking. At six years, $95.2 million, with $51.5 million guaranteed, the average annual value of his contract falls almost $2 million shy of Dominik's estimate for Suh's upcoming deal, with a smaller proportion guaranteed (about 54.1 percent for McCoy vs. 56 percent for Suh).

Name	AAV	Gtd.%
Ndamukong Suh	$17.9M (?)	56%
Gerald McCoy	$15.9M	54%
Geno Atkins	$10.7M	21%
Kyle Williams	$7.3M	30%
Henry Melton	$6.9M	4%
Linval Joseph	$6.3M	40%

The next tier of defensive tackle salaries is much lower. Geno Atkins of the Cincinnati Bengals is earning $10.7 million per year. Kyle Williams of the Buffalo Bills, $7.3 million. Henry Melton of the Dallas Cowboys, $6.9. All the other defensive tackles who top (or even approach) eight-digit per-year averages are 3-4 tackles, some of whom also flex out to defensive end.

As good as Suh is, it's hard to argue he's worth as much as Geno Atkins and Kyle Williams put together.

In order to justify better-than-J.J. Watt money, that just might be the role Suh has to play: a pass-rushing 3-4 defensive end who can still be a monster in the run game. That'd be the role the Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts and Oakland Raiders ask him to play, even though giving a player cap-busting money and playing him in a different role is usually disastrous (See: Asomugha, Nnamdi).

Suh's desired landing spots are, of course, a matter of speculation. Likely factors to influence him: teams that can afford to pay him, teams that can use his talents, teams that are contenders and teams whose host cities appeal to him.

As Bleacher Report's Mike Tanier wrote, these priorities are at odds with one another. The best teams that could use him (Seattle Seahawks, New England Patriots) would struggle to afford him; the teams in the biggest markets (New York Jets) would be poor on-field fits; and the teams that can easily afford a megadeal (Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars) aren't very good.

The Raiders, however, desperately need to spend money to get up to the 89 percent-over-four-years salary-cap floor and could soak up a ton of must-spend space by lavishing an unmatchable contract on Suh. Moreover, Suh's a West Coast guy, and a move to Los Angeles (if the franchise moves) would put him in a huge media market.

Suh's potential move to the Raiders has already been compared to Reggie White's move to the Green Bay Packers. If you believe Derek Carr is Brett Favre in the making, the comparison might be apt. The infamous picture of a young Suh rocking a Raiders starter jacket could be prophetic after all:

The likeliest destination, though, might not be a destination after all. Popular wisdom had Suh counting the days until he could leave Detroit, but his tearful emotional display after the Cowboys bounced the Lions out of the 2014 playoffs left an entirely different impression. When potential landing spots are broken down, there may not be a better fit for Suh's presumed priorities than the Lions.

When the offers come rolling in during the so-called "legal tampering period" on Mar. 7 and Mar. 8, Suh may just find out the grass was always greenest on the home side of the fence.