Denver Broncos Final Free-Agency Outlook and Predictions
The Denver Broncos are set to begin the new league year. Teams can begin negotiations with outside free agents on March 7 but can't make an official announcement about a signing until March 10.
According to Spotrac.com, the Broncos have more than $116 million committed to 45 players who are under contract for 2015. With the franchise-tag price for Demaryius Thomas set at $12.8 million, that number will rise to over $128 million if/when Thomas signs his franchise tender.
The official salary-cap number for the 2015 season is reportedly going to be $143.2 million, per ESPNâs Adam Schefter. Elway will have around $15 million to make additional moves, but that number could increase with a restructuring of Peyton Manningâs contract.
The Broncos wonât be able to be big players in the free-agent market like they were last year. So who are the players they will target? Which one of their own free agents will they let walk in free agency? How does free agency tie into the draft for the Broncos?
Here is my outlook and final predictions for what will happen with the Denver Broncos in free agency.
Demaryius Thomas Gets a Long-Term Deal
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On Monday, the Broncos announced they had placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. This tag means other teams can attempt to sign Thomas away from the Broncos, but if they do, then they have to surrender two first-round picks to Denver.
Elway talked about the significance of Thomas when the team announced the franchise tag.
âThis is another step in our efforts to extend Demaryiusâ contract and ensure he remains a Denver Bronco,â Elway said. âWe will continue working toward a long-term agreement with Demaryius, who is a very important part of our team.â
With the franchise tag in place, the two sides now have until July 15 to work out a new long-term contract. This situation is similar to that of left tackle Ryan Clady a couple of years ago. In 2013, Denver tagged Clady but completed an 11th-hour long-term deal before the deadline was up.
Weâre likely to see both sides work diligently to get something done, but they may not agree on something until that mid-July deadline approaches.
Julius Thomas Leaves in Free Agency
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Not getting a deal done with Demaryius Thomas likely has ramifications for tight end Julius Thomas. With the franchise tag unavailable for Julius, heâs likely to leave Denver in free agency.
Thomas could end up fetching a contract that pays him around $8 million annually. Thereâs no question about his talent, as he is one of the leagueâs best when healthy. Over the last two seasons, Thomas has caught 24 touchdown passes and is a serious threat when his team is near paydirt.
Staying healthy has been a problem for Thomas. Over the last four years, he has never played a full seasonâmostly due to ankle problems. However, in his breakout season of 2013, he missed a couple of games with a minor knee injury.
Lack of durability is a concern for any team that is interested in Thomas, but that is unlikely to keep his price down. He has out-of-this-world potential, and a team like the Jacksonville Jaguars could be willing to pay for that.
Players Who Could Be Targeted: Owen Daniels (Baltimore Ravens), Charles Clay (Miami Dolphins), Jordan Cameron (Cleveland Browns)
Daniels makes the most sense here. First, his price is going to be cheapâa key ingredient for the Broncos this offseason. Second, he knows the Gary Kubiak system like the back of his hand after following Kubiak from Houston to Baltimore last year. Finally, Denver could rely on him as a veteran target who knows how to get open.
On Monday, per Schefter, the Dolphins placed the transition tag on Clay. This move guarantees him a one-year salary of $7.071 million, but teams are free to negotiate with him. If he is signed away from the Dolphins, they would get no pick in return.
Clay is a versatile player who can line up all over the field, and heâs dangerous with the ball in his hands. Itâs unlikely the Broncos would be willing to pay Clay an annual salary commensurate with what the Dolphins have guaranteed him in 2015.
Cameron is a similar prospect to Julius Thomas. Not only did both have one year of college football experience because of basketball careers, but both were standout players at the 2011 East-West Shrine Game. In fact, Thomas and Cameron work out together during the offseason. Cameron is a good player who creates mismatches every time heâs on the field, but like Thomas there are injury concerns since heâs never played a full 16-game season due to various maladies.
Virgil Green Is Re-Signed
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With Julius Thomas likely to move on in free agency, the Broncos need to lock down Virgil Green. In the Gary Kubiak system, Green could easily put up career-best numbers in 2015.
A seventh-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft, Green came out of the University of Nevada known mostly as a move tight end. On film, he didnât show the capability of being a good run-blocker. Today, he has become arguably the best blocking tight end on the roster.
Heâs a hard worker, but most importantly heâs an underrated receiver. In 2014, Green ran only 79 routes and caught six passes for 74 yards and the first receiving touchdown on his pro career. He caught 100 percent of the passes thrown his way and finished the season with a 12.33 yards-per-catch average and a whopping 7.00 yards after the catch per reception.
Compare that to the 337 routes ran by Julius Thomas or the 402 routes ran last year by Owen Daniels. Thomas finished with 11.37 yards per catch and 3.91 yards after the catch per reception. By comparison, Daniels finished with 10.98 yards per catch and 3.54 yards after catch per reception.
Yes, Green has a small sample size compared to those two. However, his college film shows a player who could do a lot more with a larger role. Green is still that outstanding receiver with reliable hands. He may not be as much of a threat as Thomas, but Green will get open and catch most anything thrown his way.
In the Kubiak system, having two quality tight ends is imperative. The offense is built mainly with two-tight end sets, and Green could finish the season with around 40 catches. Heâs better as a receiver than some think, and the Broncos should re-sign him to give him the opportunity to showcase his natural receiving talent.
Terrance Knighton Is Too Expensive to Keep
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The Broncos need to find a nose tackle this offseason. When they hired Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator, it signaled the Broncos' move to a 3-4 defense. The nose tackle is the fulcrum of that style of defense, and itâs one of the most important positions to have when you run that scheme.
The Broncos could always keep Terrance Knighton around. Heâs expressed to me on more than one occasion that staying in Denver is a priority for him over money. Knighton would like to stay with the Broncos, but as one of the top defensive tackles on the open market, he could be too expensive for them to keep.
Teams like the Oakland Raiders might be willing to offer Knighton a contract that pays him upwards of $8 million annually. With limited salary-cap space, the Broncos would have to begrudgingly let Knighton walk if his offers come in at that price range.
Players Who Could Be Targeted: Nick Fairley (Detroit Lions), Dan Williams (Arizona Cardinals)
If the Broncos donât keep Knighton, theyâll be in the market to add a defensive tackle at a fairly reasonable price. Fairley was a first-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft, but injuries and inconsistencies have prevented him from playing up to his potential as a pro. Weight problems and motivation are question marks that surround Fairley to this day.
With a fresh start, he could finally start to live up to his star potentialâand the Broncos may be willing to gamble that they can get the most out of the career underachiever.
Williams could be a cheaper option than Knighton, and he could be on the Broncos' radar. Measuring in at 6â3â, 314 pounds, Williams has the size to control one or two gaps in the middle of the line. His run-stuffing ability allows the linebackers behind him to run to the play unscathed. Williams has the functional strength to stand strong against opponents, and heâs tough to move off the ball.
They Target a Center in Free Agency
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Denver needs to fill three holes on the offensive line. Arguably the most important position, center, is going to be a target once free agency begins.
Rodney Hudson (Kansas City Chiefs) might be the best young center available on the open market. The Chiefs placed the franchise tag on pass-rusher Justin Houston according to Schefter, so we could see Hudson available when free agency opens. Hudson is strong and gets off the snap quickly. He has great lateral agility and can consistently be a âsticky blockerâ at the second level of the defense.
If the Broncos miss out on Hudson (or if the Chiefs sign him to a long-term deal before free agency starts), another option is Stefan Wisniewski (Oakland Raiders). A second-round pick of the Raiders in 2011, Wisniewski has only missed three games over the last four years. Heâs not an elite center but more of a solid player who could be seeking a contract that pays him more than $3 million annually.
If they miss out on both of these young prospects, then re-signing Will Montgomery is always an option. He took over the starting job last year as Manny Ramirezâs struggles continued, and the veteran did a good job. He has plenty of experience in the zone-blocking system, and his price tag won't be outrageous. Denver could also see what it has in second-year pro Matt Paradis if it fails to find a better center.
Rahim Moore Moves On
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The Broncos spent a lot of money on their secondary last year. Their first move in free agency was to add strong safety T.J. Ward to the mix. A few days after that, they handed cornerback Aqib Talib a lucrative contract. Late last season, the team also came to a new long-term agreement with star cornerback Chris Harris.
With three of the four positions locked up, Denver might not have enough money to spend a huge amount on a free safety.
Finding a quality safety is difficult to do in todayâs NFL. The Broncos have both Rahim Moore and Quinton Carter set to hit free agency next week. Carter is talented, but injuries have robbed him of the ability that made him a standout player as a rookie in 2011. Heâs unlikely to find a white-hot market for his services.
Moore is arguably the second-best safety available in free agency. Heâs worked through confidence issues and serious injury to become a solid player for the Broncos over the last few years. With the lack of quality safeties available, it could bump Mooreâs pay into a range the Broncos canât afford.
Players Who Could Be Targeted: Devin McCourty (New England Patriots), Darian Stewart (Baltimore Ravens)
If Moore is out of Denver's price range, then McCourty is likely to be way out of range. With the Patriots placing the franchise tag on kicker Stephen Gostkowski, per Schefter, it opens the door for McCourty to hit the open market. Heâs arguably the top free safety available, and McCourty is likely to earn a larger contract than Moore.
Stewart makes a lot of sense for the Broncos. Originally an undrafted free agent for the St. Louis Rams in 2011, he worked hard to prove himself at the pro level. Last year, Stewart impressed coaches with the Ravens as the teamâs starter at free safety. Stewart made several big plays for the Ravens, and heâs a ball hawk who can cover some of the best receivers in the game if needed. Heâs a smart player, only 26 years old and could have the best years of his career in front of him.
Right Tackles Who Could Back Up a Rookie
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The Broncos might be targeting a right tackle with their first-round pick in the 2015 NFL draft. Players like Ereck Flowers (Miami) and Ty Sambrailo (Colorado State) could be on their radar at the end of April. The Broncos need to find a starter at right tackle, and if possible a long-term answer at the position would be fantastic.
If the Broncos add a rookie to start, theyâll need to find a capable veteran backup in free agency.
Derek Newton might be a target the Broncos look to when free agency begins. Coming out of Arkansas State, Newton was a seventh-round pick of the Houston Texans in the 2011 NFL draft. He is familiar with the zone-blocking system since he worked under both Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison in Houston. He wonât turn 28 until November, and he was quietly a solid starter for the Texans at right tackle in 2014.
Another option for Denver is to bring back Ryan Harris. Originally a third-round pick of the Broncos in the 2007 NFL draft, Harris was once thought of as a bookend starter opposite Ryan Clady. He has plenty of experience in the zone-blocking system, and his price tag is not going to be too high. Harris has bounced around the league since first leaving Denver in 2010; he returned to Denver in 2012 and has been on three other teams since then. Heâs the right fit at a good price.
All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via the Broncos' media department unless otherwise noted.
Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac. Transaction history provided by Pro Sports Transactions. Draft grades provided by NFLDraftScout.com
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