Denver Broncos Blueprint for Winning Free Agency
The Denver Broncos are on a quest to win the Super Bowl in 2015. General manager John Elway has done a masterful job of putting together the roster during his four years with the team. Elway makes sure to build through the draft, but he has been able to lure star players to Denver through free agency as well.
This year, the Broncos have 13 players set to be unrestricted free agents when the new league year begins. Elway said at the combine the team would let the market set the price for their free agents before a decision is made on players who could potentially stay with the Broncos. “We’d like to sign them all,” Elway succinctly said.
According to Spotrac.com, the Broncos have more than $116 million committed to 45 players who are under contract for 2015. The official salary-cap number for the 2015 season will be between $140 and $143 million, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Elway will have around $25 million to make additional moves.
The amount of salary-cap space could rise if (when) the Broncos agree to a restructured deal with quarterback Peyton Manning. Denver is running out of time to win a world championship with Manning, so every single move is of the utmost importance.
Here is a blueprint the Denver Broncos could follow to win free agency.
Franchise Tag Demaryius Thomas
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The Broncos can’t lose superstar wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. At this time, no long-term deal has been reached and the Broncos have until March 2nd to put the franchise tag on Thomas.
Expect this move to happen on Monday. Placing the franchise tag on Thomas will guarantee him a one-year salary of around $12.8 million in 2015. More importantly, it gives the two sides until July 15th to work out a new long-term contract.
Thomas is easily a top-five receiver in the game today, and one could make the argument that he’s the best in the NFL. He’s worked hard during his time in the league to become a well-rounded player who can dominate at the point of the catch.
A favorite target of Peyton Manning, Thomas has caught 297 passes since the future Hall of Fame passer arrived in 2012. Those catches have been good for a total of 4,483 receiving yards and 35 touchdowns.
There’s no way the Broncos want to lose a player like that. With Manning—and even after Manning’s time in Denver is done—Thomas can be a reliable receiver who gives opposing defensive coordinators nightmares.
Let Wes Welker Go
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No longer the player he used to be, the Broncos can let veteran receiver Wes Welker move on in free agency. Even though there was a report to the contrary earlier this year, Welker told Mike Klis of The Denver Post that he’s getting ready for the 2015 season and not mulling retirement.
In a free-agency market (and draft class) chock-full of talented wide receivers, there’s no telling what kind of interest Welker will attract after a disappointing 2014.
The 2014 season began with another concussion suffered in the preseason. This was Welker’s third of his Broncos career, but he had time off anyway due to a four-game suspension (reduced to two) for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs.
Welker finished with only 49 catches last year, the least since 2005 when he was with the Miami Dolphins (29). His 9.5 yards per catch was the lowest of Welker’s career.
New head coach Gary Kubiak has an offensive system that regularly features two tight ends in the base formation. Slot receivers aren’t that integral to what Kubiak does, so even if Welker was at the top of his game he’s not a natural fit for the new offense.
Re-Sign Virgil Green
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An underrated receiver and a dominant blocker, the Broncos should be able to re-sign tight end Virgil Green. In the Kubiak system, Green has incredible value and could have a career high in catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in 2015.
Coming out of Nevada in 2011, Green was a seventh-round pick for the Broncos. Known mostly as a receiving tight end—and a favorite target of Colin Kaepernick—Green reshaped his game into what it is today.
Most Broncos fans only think of Green as a blocker, as he has become arguably one of the best blocking tight ends in the entire league. Green improved his strength and technique as a blocker, and now he can dominate at the point of attack.
He’s certainly a fine blocker, but Green can offer so much more. He has good hands and concentration as a receiver. Green naturally plucks the ball out of the air with his arms extended away from his body. He also knows how to use his frame properly to “box out” defenders from the football.
Former Broncos tight end Joel Dreessen told me in an interview on my ESPN Radio show in Denver that Green could catch 30-40 passes in Kubiak’s system as the second tight end. Dreessen played under Kubiak during his time with the Houston Texans, and he knows what the new head coach wants—and needs—out of players at that position.
Green’s price tag won’t be outrageous, and his skill set is imperative in the Kubiak system. Re-signing Green is a slam dunk for the Broncos.
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Let Julius Thomas Go
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It’s a painful move, but the Broncos have to let Julius Thomas go. The NFL is a business first, and sometimes star players emerge from sleepers that are picked up in the draft. The decision on Thomas is purely one that comes down to financial reasons—not because of play on the field.
That’s what happened with Thomas, a fourth-round pick out of Portland State in the 2011 NFL draft. With one year of college football experience, the Broncos saw enough to move up in the draft so they could secure his services. He was known as a basketball star in college, but Denver felt he could make the transition to tight end in the pros.
An ankle injury (that later required surgery) kept Thomas off the field for most of his first two years in the NFL. However, in 2013 Thomas had a breakout season and proved he could be a star in the NFL.
With 24 touchdown receptions over the last two seasons, Thomas is a proven weapon in the red zone. He uses his skill set to naturally high-point passes in the end zone like rebounding a basketball. Thomas is too fast for linebackers to keep up with him, and he’s too big for safeties to cover. This makes him a mismatch every time he’s on the field.
Those who question Thomas’ toughness are grossly misinformed. Yes, he’s never played a full 16-game season during his four years in the NFL, but there have been plenty of times he played hurt.
Take the end of last year for example. Thomas injured his ankle again in the Week 11 game against the St. Louis Rams, and he missed three weeks because of it. Upon his return, Thomas didn’t look the same.
He sparingly played in the final three games of the year, but only had three catches for 63 yards. Even though he wasn’t at full strength, Thomas was out there and provided the Broncos with a decoy in the passing game.
It would be fantastic if the Broncos could keep Thomas, but his price tag may be too high. He’s arguably the best tight end on the open market, and Thomas could command a salary that pays him over $8 million annually.
If his price is more reasonable, the Broncos should be able to keep Thomas. However, with teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders and New England Patriots potentially interested, we could see Thomas priced out of the Broncos’ range.
Sign Charles Clay
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Even if they re-sign Virgil Green, the Broncos still have another hole or two to fill at the tight end position. This is one of the reasons why they need to sign tight end Charles Clay.
Coming out of Tulsa in 2011, Clay was known as an all-purpose player, but his fit in the NFL was a question mark. Clay played seven different positions in college, and the Miami Dolphins added him in the sixth round of the draft.
A part-time player for the Dolphins over his first two years in the NFL, Clay worked diligently to prove that he needed to be featured more.
In 2013, Clay was used more, and he responded with the best season of his pro career. Targeted 102 times, Clay caught 69 passes for 759 yards and six touchdowns. Hamstring and knee problems slowed him down a bit in 2014, and Clay missed two games. He still ended up with 58 catches, 605 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
Clay would be a perfect fit for the Gary Kubiak system. He’s able to be a threat after the catch because of his athleticism that makes him tough to match up against. Clay and Virgil Green would give the Broncos a potent one-two punch at the tight end position.
With a price tag that is lower than what Julius Thomas could get, Clay makes for a great option with the Broncos.
Sign Rodney Hudson
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The Broncos are searching for three new starters on the offensive line. Left guard Orlando Franklin and center Will Montgomery are both unrestricted free agents and may not return in 2015. In addition to center and left guard, the Broncos also need to find a right tackle, as Louis Vasquez will likely be returned to his natural position of right guard this season.
One of the best options they have at center is Rodney Hudson. They haven’t had a “set it and forget it” starter at center since the days of Broncos Ring of Famer Tom Nalen.
Hudson is arguably the best young center who could be available on the open market. He graded out (plus-13.0) as the third-best center in the league last year, according to Pro Football Focus. His natural skill set would be a fantastic fit in the zone-blocking system the Broncos will use in 2015.
With the ability to move well laterally at the snap, Hudson can regularly be a “sticky blocker” at the second level of the defense. He can pull from the center position and get out in front to lead the train on running plays or screen passes.
Hudson is light on his feet, but he plays with good power as well. He can redirect his man after the snap, and he does a good job of staying with his block until the echo of the whistle.
Known as a leader on the offensive line, Hudson would be capable of changing the offensive line calls if (when) Peyton Manning changes the play call. He’s a smart player with plenty of upside and potential left to be a quality starter for years to come.
Re-Sign Terrance Knighton
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The biggest question mark in free agency comes with one of the biggest players on the roster—veteran defensive tackle Terrance Knighton. The Broncos have to find a way to get him re-signed for many reasons.
First, the defensive tackle market isn’t that full of talent. After Ndamukong Suh (Detroit Lions), Knighton is arguably the second-best player available at the position. Sure, the Broncos could pursue a player like Nick Fairley (Lions) but he comes with weight and motivation question marks that Knighton doesn’t have—and they may have a similar price tag on the open market.
Second, the draft may not be the way to go. In 2013, the Broncos selected Sylvester Williams with their first-round pick. Williams flashed in the last half of his rookie season, but he made little to no improvement as a second-year player in 2014.
Earlier this year, Elway told me during a private interview at the combine that the team still believes in Williams. “Sylvester will be pushed, and Sylvester will be challenged—and that’s a good thing for Sylvester,” Elway said.
Defensive tackles take some time to develop, and Denver simply doesn’t have that luxury at nose tackle. That position is the fulcrum of the 3-4 defense, and the Broncos need a solid starter—not potential or question marks.
Third, Denver doesn’t have a true nose tackle on the roster at this time. Williams might be a poor fit for the 3-4 defense, both at nose tackle and even outside at defensive end. Marvin Austin could actually be the starter at nose tackle if the Broncos can’t find a better option. He has the natural ability, but injuries have plagued him during his pro career, and that’s a concern.
Finally, Knighton wants to be in Denver and could accept a more reasonable deal to stay with the team. He’s told me that winning is more important than money, and Knighton feels good as a leader on this defense. “Sometimes you forget how good you are when you’re on a bad team,” Knighton told me last season.
This guy is the right player for Denver, and his price may not be too much for the Broncos to handle. They need to find a way to make this happen.
All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via the Broncos' media department unless otherwise noted.
Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac. Transaction history provided by Pro Sports Transactions.
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