New England Patriots: 4 Best Options to Replace Shane Vereen This Offseason
The New England Patriots often get lampooned as a cold, totalitarian machine, a byproduct of their organizational leadership, government-level secrecy and controversial willingness to push the rule book. While that perception isn't always entirely fair, one undeniable truth is that the Patriots are a strictly value-based organization.
That philosophy extends particularly harshly to the running back position. Over the past two offseasons, the Pats have thumbed their noses at Danny Woodhead and LeGarrette Blount, making little effort to retain key backfield contributors while watching other teams sign both away for peanuts.
One can't really fault the results, though—in the last two seasons combined, the Patriots rank 16th in the league in averaging 4.16 yards per attempt, while their 43 rushing touchdowns lead the league in that span.
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Consequently, versatile receiving back Shane Vereen could be the next victim of New England's backfield penny-pinching. Vereen's agents are apparently seeking upward of $5 million per year on the open market; even if he settles at around $3.5 to $4 million per year, that would more than quadruple the next-highest-paid running back on New England's books.
As talented as Vereen is, he's also a game plan-specific player who will never be a three-down workhorse. That number simply doesn't make sense from a Patriots perspective, so barring a significant depression in value, it seems likely that Vereen will cash in elsewhere.
But that doesn't mean all is lost for the Pats, who have had success unearthing unheralded receiving backs and seeing them thrive next to Tom Brady. With an eye on attempting to replicate Vereen's skill set, let's take a look at the free-agent and draft options the Patriots should consider this offseason in the event of his departure.
Free-Agent Options
I brought this name up a couple of weeks ago, but Washington's Roy Helu stands out as a potential bargain this spring. After receiving 151 carries as the feature back during his 2011 rookie campaign, Helu has toted the ball just 104 times over the preceding three seasons, as Alfred Morris has taken control of the backfield.
But while his value as a between-the-tackles runner has dissipated, Helu's value as a receiver has remained fairly constant. Even including a 2012 season in which he played just three games due to Achilles and turf toe injuries, Helu ranks in the top 20 in both receptions and receiving yards among running backs over the last four years, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Last year may have been Helu's best since his rookie campaign, as he set career highs in receiving yards and yards per catch. The metrics back up those surface stats—based on Pro Football Focus' yards-per-route-run efficiency stat, Helu was the second-best receiving back in the league last season, averaging 2.2 yards for every route he ran out of the backfield.
Moreover, PFF's Pat Thorman illustrates how Helu was also one of the league's most elusive backs on a per-touch basis:
In fairness, those impressive per-snap rate stats are subject to small-sample-size bias, so no one is really suggesting that Helu should receive an every-down workload.
When Helu was the primary ball-carrier in the Washington backfield in 2011, he was one of the least efficient runners in the league, ranking 38th out of 50 tailbacks in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (DVOA is an opponent-adjusted measure of success rate; read here for further info).
Consequently, Helu is not likely to seek a one-year "prove it" kind of deal in a backfield where he could be the featured ball-carrier. It's more likely that he lands in the ballpark of the two-year, $3.25 million deal that James Starks signed last season, something that would firmly establish Helu as a niche player within a committee.
That mock contract would make Helu the highest-paid running back in New England's backfield, so the Patriots' interest will likely stem from their faith in James White. The 26-year-old Helu would likely stunt White's growth over the next couple of seasons, but the latter would offer a safer baseline level of production.
If the Patriots would rather ease White in but ultimately allow him to eventually take over the third-down role, there's a medium-risk, high-reward option out there who could offer some short-term value.
Reggie Bush will never fulfill the hype that surrounded him coming out of USC, but that doesn't change the fact that Bush has been one of the league's most effective all-around backs since leaving New Orleans. From 2011 to 2013, Bush's 4,172 yards from scrimmage (on an efficient 5.2 yards per touch) ranked eighth among all running backs, per Pro-Football-Reference.
However, Bush declined to just 4.7 yards per touch over 114 touches last season while dealing with a variety of injuries, leading to his release this week. His yards per carry also dropped to 3.9, his lowest mark since 2008.
Approaching his 30th birthday, it's fair to wonder if 2014 was merely a dip or the start of Bush's decline, though ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss suggests that the free agent could be a nice buy-low opportunity, especially in comparison with what Vereen figures to command:
"If the price was equal, Vereen would be the choice because he's younger and already a proven fit in the offense. But the price likely wouldn't be equal, with Vereen -- from this viewpoint -- in position to command more because he's entering his prime years. So then the question becomes something like this, "Would you rather have Vereen over the next four years at around $4 million per season, or Bush for the next one or two seasons at possibly around half that total?"
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Much like with Helu, Bush likely wouldn't bring much value as a between-the-tackles ball-carrier, so it's best to examine his value as a receiver. The numbers below suggest that Bush has been above average in terms of raw total yardage, but his success rate has actually been below average:
| 2012 | 4.88 | 1.26 (24th) | 7.9% (11th) |
| 2013 | 5.46 | 1.67 (11th) | 5.8% (20th) |
| 2014 | 4.82 | 1.44 (17th) | -2.6% (25th) |
That's not entirely his fault, since success rate is related to a play's down and distance, something that is out of Bush's control. For instance, Jamaal Charles ranked just above Bush last season in success rate, and few would argue that Charles is a below-average receiver. So those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.
Ultimately, Bush seems more likely than Helu to take a one-year deal that could re-establish his value on the market, even as he reaches his 30s. The Pats would probably need to stretch themselves to at least $2 million per year to compete for Bush, but he would also provide a more immediate cushion for White, much like Woodhead did for Vereen during the 2012 season.
Draft Options
If the Pats turn to the draft, that would probably signal a lack of faith in White and a desire for a new long-term solution. Though analysts have connected Georgia's Todd Gurley to New England, it would behoove the Patriots to wait until Day 2 if we're framing this discussion in the context of finding a replacement for Vereen specifically.
Miami's Duke Johnson is probably the purest third-down back in this draft. The 5'9", 207-pound tailback doesn't possess the size to bear an every-down workload, but he has demonstrated a consistently explosive first step in averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per touch over his career at Miami.
However, it's hard to know what to take from Johnson's combine results. The ex-Hurricane ran a disappointing 4.54-second 40-yard dash and didn't participate in any of the shuttle agility drills. At the same time, however, his measurables were excellent, creating some polarizing opinions about his draft stock:
Apart from his physical limitations, however, Johnson displays the decisiveness and fearless downhill running style one would expect from a bigger back. He's probably a better fit for zone teams, but Johnson's patience and football IQ would likely translate into New England's hybrid running system.
Michigan State's Jeremy Langford checks in at a leaner 6'0" and 208 pounds, but the former Spartan similarly projects as a Day 2 pick. Langford is a more raw product, as he started his career in East Lansing as a cornerback and wide receiver before moving to the backfield.
That perimeter speed translated at the combine, where his 4.42-second 40 time was the best among all running backs. Football Outsiders' Speed Score metric, which adjusts 40 times for player weight, ranked Langford as the third-fastest running back in the draft based on "true speed."
At the same time, though, Langford was not particularly impressive in the agility drills, raising questions as to whether his straight-line speed translates to practical usage:
The book on Langford is that of a back who possesses the acceleration to give linebackers problems in space, and his receiver experience suggests that the Patriots could enjoy the same schematic versatility Vereen provided.
Moreover, Langford is a precocious pass-blocker, a rare skill that New England has traditionally emphasized from its passing backs (it's no coincidence that Vereen received more playing time when his blocking improved).
The question Patriots fans have is what kind of impact a Day 2 pick could have. Vereen and Stevan Ridley were both second-day selections, but neither really broke into the lineups until their sophomore campaigns. Under Bill Belichick, Laurence Maroney and J.R. Redmond are the only rookie tailbacks to exceed 500 yards from scrimmage, and neither reached the 1,000-yard mark.
This is a back-of-the-envelope method of examining things, but let's take the top 50 rookie running back seasons in terms of yards from scrimmage over the past 10 years. Breaking the distribution down by round drafted, here's an illustration of where the best all-around rookie backs tend to be drafted:
Remember, we're also talking specifically about a Vereen replacement for the purposes of this article. Thus, changing the criteria, here's the draft distribution for the top 50 rookie running backs in terms of receiving yards (again using the last 10 years as the time frame):
Both charts suggest that while there isn't a big drop-off from Round 1 to Round 2 and 3 backs, Day 3 immediate contributors are significantly harder to find.
This is probably good news for a Patriots team that has a track record of trading down to accumulate Day 2 picks. Moreover, compensatory draft pick projections have New England in line to receive a bonus third-rounder from Aqib Talib's defection last offseason.
Johnson and Langford are right in that sweet spot. The Patriots may very well take a power back, given that LeGarrette Blount is entering the final year of his contract, while young depth options Jonas Gray and Tyler Gaffney are both relative unknowns. In that instance, New England would be beginning anew the cycle it started in 2011, when Ridley and Vereen became heirs of the backfield committee.
Regardless, the Day 2 running back values look especially sweet this season. The Patriots shouldn't hesitate to explore cheap free-agency options, and a potential game-changer like Gurley deserves consideration if he lasts to pick No. 32. Ultimately, though, the wisest scenario might entail New England pouncing on a tailback during the second or third round, thereby reloading its cost-efficient backfield.
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