How Good Is Julius Thomas, and How Much Is That Worth?

Just about anyone paying close attention to the Denver Broncos figured he'll be racking up touchdowns in some other uniform come 2015. Now, it's all but official.

According to Mike Klis of The Denver Post, the Broncos weren't willing to meet Thomas' salary demands for a contract extension, echoing the failed preseason extension negotiations.

Why?

The 6'5", 250-pound pass-catcher has been incredibly productive during his two years as a starter in Denver. He's hauled in 108 passes for 1,277 yards and a monster 24 touchdowns—all despite missing eight starts to injuries.

With a brand-new coaching staff and questions about quarterback Peyton Manning's future, letting a surefire weapon like Thomas walk seems crazy for a team that still has Super Bowl aspirations.

Other teams are lined up for the privilege of having Thomas on their payroll. He's 26 and coming off back-to-back Pro Bowl nods. Players of that sort simply don't hit the market, and plenty of teams looking to add a double-digit-touchdown machine to their arsenal are ready to spend.

Chief among them, writes Klis, will be the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars don't just have room under the salary-cap ceiling, they need to burn cash to get up to the rolling cap floor, which amounts to 89 percent of available cap space throughout a four-year rolling window.

Other contenders in the bidding war could include the Atlanta Falcons, per D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Atlanta desperately missed the services of retired tight end Tony Gonzalez in 2014.

The Oakland Raiders, who also need to spend, spend, spend this spring, could also be raising their auction paddles come March 10.

Even if the Broncos had the cap space to match these teams' sure-to-be-huge offers, it doesn't seem like they would.

Why not?

Thomas, as has been mentioned so often it's practically a joke, is a gifted athlete who starred in basketball at Portland State. It took two seasons for the fourth-rounder to develop the football craft to crack the Broncos' star-studded lineup, partially because he lost his entire rookie season to injury.

Once Thomas got on the field, he lit it up.

His size, feet and verticality make him lethal in the red zone. According to NFLsavant.com, Thomas led the entire NFL in red-zone targets with a whopping 40—again, in just 12 games—and hauled in 18 of them for six touchdowns.

As Bleacher Report AFC West Lead Writer Christopher Hansen wrote, Broncos receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are more effective and productive when he's in the lineup, drawing over-the-middle coverage that opens the field up for them.

But just how valuable is Thomas himself? What is he really doing for the Broncos?

In 2014, Thomas finished third on the team in receptions but fifth in average yards per reception behind fellow tight end Virgil Green. Thomas' longest catch on the year went for only 35 yards. Of his six non-red-zone touchdowns, none of them were from very far outside the red zone.

Unlike many of the big-money tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, Thomas was rarely utilized as a slot receiver.

According to Pro Football Focus, just 15 percent f his snaps featured him standing up off the line. PFF also charted Thomas with a target on 17.7 percent of passing routes run.

That's not bad, but it doesn't come close to the target rates of Gronkowski (27.9) or Graham (23.1). At 17.1 percent, Broncos tight end Jacob Tamme gets thrown the ball almost exactly as often.

Thomas' role as a touchdown machine is valuable, but he's not a vertical field-stretcher or offensive cornerstone the way the very highest-paid tight ends are.

Here's how Thomas stacks up to some of the most prolific touchdown-scoring tight ends in the game today:

	Rec/G	Yds/G	TD/G	Y/R ▼	Ctch%
Rob Gronkowski	5.50	78	0.73	14.18	61.4
Vernon Davis	2.69	37.8	0.52	14.04	58.2
Jimmy Graham	5.34	65.8	0.81	12.3	64
Julius Thomas	4.00	47.3	0.89	11.82	71.1
Antonio Gates	4.56	52.9	0.50	11.6	68.9

When we take the top scoring threats at the position and sort by average yards per reception, we see more of the same: Thomas just doesn't get vertical like the top tight ends. Gronkowski rakes in an average annual value of $9 million while Graham makes $10 million. 

Per Klis, the Broncos tried to pay Thomas in line with the players in the next tier —at least from their perspective:

"

Talks broke off with the team's latest extension offer coming in at five years, $40 million, or $8 million a year. It would have made him the league's third-highest-paid tight end, behind only Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. That's the team's view.

However, the Broncos also wanted to keep Thomas' 2014 salary at $645,000. So another way to look at the deal was six years and $40.645 million, or $6.77 million a year. That would have ranked No. 9 in average value among tight ends. That's the player's view.

"

Now that the 2014 season is over, that philosophical distinction is moot. Like many players, Thomas is trying to maximize his guaranteed money.

The flip side to "look at how productive Thomas has been during the 26 games in four seasons when he's been healthy" is that he's only been a healthy starter for 26 games in four seasons.

Whatever team invests big guaranteed dollars in him isn't just taking a risk that he'll be able to excel in a bigger, more versatile role, but that he'll be much more durable than he's been to this point.

The Broncos have a ton of pricey players already, some of whom—including Demaryius Thomas—are free agents themselves. Even if there were fewer question marks surrounding Thomas' future, the Broncos likely couldn't afford to meet his demands.

The uncomfortable truth for Thomas: Manning and the Broncos shredded defenses for 4,659 yards and 39 touchdowns without his help in 2012.

Expanded roles for Green and Tamme should keep the Broncos' offensive machine humming in 2015 for a fraction of the cost.

Klis estimates Thomas' asking price at $7.5 million per year, which over five years would approximate the last contract Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten signed in 2013. Witten was PFF's No. 2-ranked tight end in 2014, whereas Thomas was just the 13th—but that's the price of doing free-agent business.

If Thomas had proven he's worth the money he's looking for and didn't have any red flags or holes in his game, he wouldn't be leaving Denver.

For a team like the Jaguars or Falcons, though, Thomas has the ability to make an offense-changing impact—the kind that can swing two or three games a season. Paying a premium to secure that kind of player, with his best football likely in front of him, makes all the sense in the world.

Contract and salary-cap information courtesy of Spotrac.