Checklist for Houston Rockets During Season's Home Stretch
Well here we go.
With the All-Star break and trade deadline in the rearview mirror, it's time to buckle up and prepare for the big finish. The playoff teams out West are battling for playoff positioning, but the Houston Rockets have to take care of a few things before the postseason arrives.
General manager Daryl Morey made a deal for the eighth straight February, but it wasn't the splash Houston was looking for. The team's top priority was an upgrade at point guard, such as Goran Dragic, Ty Lawson or Reggie Jackson, but the Rockets couldn't make it happen. They swung a couple of last-minute deals to bring in a couple of more role players but nothing special.
They didn't land their big targets at the deadline, so the next couple of months could be an uphill battle. Dwight Howard is still on the sideline, which is a sight nobody wants to see. There's still a vacancy for primary ball-handler while Harden sits, and the X's and O's could use some tweaking.
Howard's championship window is slowly closing, so the Rockets have to act fast. It's a brutal path to the Finals out West, but Houston has a chance to make a serious run. Here's a checklist for the Rockets down the stretch.
Get Healthy
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As fashionable as Howard is, the Houston Rockets and all their fans would prefer to see him in uniform. I mean, for heaven's sake, Joey Dorsey is starting on a team in the NBA!
The Rockets have not had their initial starting lineup since the third game of the season. Patrick Beverley pulled a hammy, and then Terrence Jones missed 41 games with nerve inflammation. When he finally returned, Howard went down for the second time this year with a troublesome knee.
Houston has seemingly been weathering the storm from the get-go. It's amazing how well the Rockets have done when they have not had their ideal lineup in place for practically the entire season. Hopefully, the team can get its full squad on the court before the playoffs so they can jell together.
This is priority No. 1. Houston needs to have all of its key players in good health by the start of the postseason. The defense takes a huge hit without Howard in the middle, but it's also important for these guys to get some trial runs on the court together before diving into the playoffs. With a handful of new guys in place, it's even more important that the Rockets get an opportunity to develop as much chemistry as possible.
This is the NBA. Even worse, this is the Western Conference. The other seven contenders aren't going to sit around and feel sorry for you, so the sooner Houston gets healthy, the better.
Pick Up Some Statement Wins
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With eight contenders in one conference, the regular season becomes significantly more meaningful. There are more frequent marquee matchups, which is both entertaining and problematic. The Rockets get to test themselves against other contenders quite often on the schedule. Yet as of late, they haven't been so successful in those games.
With recent losses to the Los Angeles Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks, the confidence in a deep playoff run is slowly diminishing. It's not at all inconceivable to see the Rockets get bounced in the first round yet again, like they have for eight of their last nine playoff appearances.
But, on the bright side, Houston will have ample opportunities to pick up big wins. It gets to face all three of those aforementioned teams again before the end of the season, with tie-breaking implications. The Rockets also see the Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs and OKC Thunder before the postseason arrives.
They may be struggling right now, but the Rockets have a couple of months to turn it around. A few big statement wins against Western opponents is the best way to build the contention resume. It's also fairly crucial if they want to maintain that top-four spot in the standings.
Define the Second Ball-Handler
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He may be the most skilled player in the NBA, but Beverley has not been getting it done for Houston as of late.
The Rockets desperately need a second ball-handler to take some pressure off Harden and take over while he gets some rest. Beverley has been unable to create his own offense, and it's starting to take its toll on Houston's scoring production.
There aren't many options on the bench either. Jason Terry is old (37) and more of an off-ball shooter anyway. Before getting traded, Isaiah Canaan and Alexey Shved didn't even see the floor. Oftentimes, Josh Smith wound up being the guy with the ball in his hands the most.
Recently acquired Pablo Prigioni may help. He's technically a point guard, but he's more of a shooter like Terry. He's also 37 like Terry, so the team can't count on him for significant minutes.
It's a tough situation, but McHale and his staffer better figure out something quick. Harden can't play every minute of every game, and when opponents triple-team him, someone else needs to step up. This could be a major issue in a seven-game playoff series if Harden is bombarded and no one else can create his own scoring.
Prigioni, Terry and even Smith and Brewer are going to have to learn how to keep the offense going when Harden takes a breather. If not, the Rockets could be heading home early.
Value Each Possession
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The Rockets have a strong focus on efficiency. Daryl Morey is a strong believer in analytics, and despite what Charles Barkley says, that's the way Houston plays.
The Rockets only take shots from behind the arc or in the paint. They're dead last in the league in mid-range jumpers, and that's no coincidence. They're last by a long shot and probably will be for many years to come.
However, if the Rockets are so concerned with maximizing their results, they should stop taking so many possessions for granted.
Since returning from the break, Houston is averaging 22 turnovers per game. With a struggling offense as of late, it's vital to take care of the basketball. The Rockets can't score if they don't get a shot off. I understand the Rockets are trying to pick up the pace with Howard on the bench, but giving away possessions can and will come back to haunt them.
Those turnovers also don't account for some of the nonsensical possessions that occur far more than they should. I'm talking about the Josh Smith mid-range jumpers and the Patrick Beverley head-down drives that almost always come up empty.
On defense too, there's room for improvement. No team is going to play unstoppable defense for the whole game without any mental lapses, but Houston could bring down the mistakes a peg or two.
I'm not asking for perfection. All I'm saying is that there could be a smarter way of looking at each possession by being more aware in order to maximize the results. The key here is keeping mistakes to a minimum.
Secure Harden the MVP
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Harden or Stephen Curry?
Both have very good arguments, but the Beard has a slight edge. Let's start with the statistics.
Harden is the league's leading scorer, putting up 27.4 points per night. Curry scores a respectable 23.6 points per game, good for No. 7 in the NBA. Curry is also in the top five in assists with 7.9 per game, while Harden falls one spot short of the top 10 with 6.8.
However, Harden leads the league in points created per game. He accounts for 44.3 points per game through his scoring and assisting. The entire Rockets offense runs through the Beard. His ability to score from both inside and out while focusing on the efficient spots of the floor draws the defense, which allows him to create for others just as easily as he can for himself.
Even when he misses, Harden gets so much attention on the floor that his teammates can easily capitalize on second-chance opportunities.
The Golden State Warriors are a great team. They play team basketball under head coach Steve Kerr, and as a result they are in the top two in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They have a tall, athletic bench that can switch on everything defensively, making it nearly impossible to find an offensive advantage. They also run a good offense with plenty of movement, and when the Splash Brothers heat up, it makes them unbeatable.
Curry is a phenomenal player. He's a top-five talent in the Association, and his quick-release shot and nifty dribbling skills leave us with our jaws open time after time.
I love watching Curry, especially when he heats up. It truly is a pleasure to watch. But when it comes down to who is the most valuable player in the NBA this season, Harden is the guy.
Curry has a better coach, strategy and supporting cast in his favor. Harden has to shoulder the burden of carrying the entire offense on a nightly basis, and it doesn't help that Howard and other key guys have been injured for the majority of the season.
If Curry missed a few weeks with an injury, Golden State would still be the heavy favorite in most of its games. If the Rockets lost Harden for any extended period of time, they would be hopeless.
The Warriors have the best record in basketball, but the Rockets are right there in the top five. If Houston can keep up the pace and finish with home-court advantage in this bloodthirsty conference, voters couldn't possibly avoid the impressive campaign of the Beard.
All stats are from ESPN.com, unless otherwise noted, and are accurate as of February 21, 2015.
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