Top 10 NFL Free Agents New England Patriots Must Sign

Given how the New England Patriots operate, calling any free agent a "must-sign" is usually an overstatement.  The Pats are as strict a value-based organization as any in the NFL, and while that has led to unpopular personnel decisions over the years, things have clearly worked out well for Bill Belichick and Co.

However, as the Patriots try to maximize the twilight years of the Tom Brady era, the roster-construction portion of the offseason takes on a greater sense of urgency.  The Pats nailed last season's free-agency period, stealing a true difference-maker in Darrelle Revis, retaining important starters like Julian Edelman and Ryan Wendell and even inking a couple of nice values in Brandon LaFell and Brandon Browner.

That set the foundation for the 2014 championship campaign, putting an already strong core over the top.  The Patriots shouldn't see much personnel turnover this offseason, but even with much of the Super Bowl-winning squad back intact, they'll need to continue reinforcing the depth chart in the upcoming weeks.

Much of that will require retaining their own free agents, so note that this list will also include in-house free agents the Patriots should splurge to keep around.  In addition, despite being the focus of their offseason, Revis is not technically a free agent, so he won't appear on this list (though the All-Pro corner would obviously top the ranking).

With that in mind, let's take a look at the top 10 free agents, both internal and external, who would fit best in Foxborough next season.

10. Shane Vereen

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To clarify, Vereen is clearly better than the 10th-best free agent on this list.  If money were no object, Vereen would arguably be New England's biggest offensive priority of the offseason, as he has become an invaluably versatile mismatch in the offense.

And yet, the Pats have been at the forefront of the running back devaluation.  In each of the past two offseasons, New England has failed to match relatively modest offers for Danny Woodhead (2 years, $3.5 million) and LeGarrette Blount (2 years, $1.7 million) despite both being productive and well-liked backs. As NESN's Doug Kyed opines, Vereen's contract will almost certainly exceed those numbers:

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The Patriots must be willing to give Vereen around $3 million per season, and they have to decide how big of an upgrade he is over James White, who they selected in the fourth round of the 2014 NFL draft. White essentially redshirted his rookie season, playing in just three games, rushing for 38 yards on nine carries and catching five passes for 23 yards. He has a similar skill-set to Vereen’s: a great receiver who won’t offer much value rushing between the tackles.

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Kyed's $3 million estimate seems reasonable, and while that number itself doesn't sound exorbitant, it would more than triple the annual average salary of any other running back the Patriots currently employ.  For a team that employs a true egalitarian backfield distribution, that simply doesn't make financial sense.

In fairness, the soon-to-be 26-year-old Vereen deserves that kind of raise, even with his sketchy injury history and limited value as a runner between the tackles.  Few running backs possess as much positional versatility, and as Vereen proved in the Super Bowl, he's essentially a fail-safe who can serve as a safety blanket against even the fastest defenses. 

Vereen deserves more consideration than Woodhead or Blount received, but that doesn't make him any likelier to see a second contract with New England.

9. Niles Paul

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For much of the regular season, the Patriots were primarily a "12" personnel offense (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB).  The last-minute acquisition of Tim Wright before the regular season gave New England a move "F" tight end who served as a de facto receiver, allowing it to exploit teams with coverage-challenged linebackers and safeties.

But Wright never truly picked up the offense, mostly serving as a goal-line option, as the Pats switched back to three-receiver sets to serve their passing needs.  That's not necessarily Wright's fault, as it's unfair to demand any second-year player to pick up the byzantine New England playbook just two weeks before the season.

Still, if the Pats have any hesitation on Wright, Niles Paul could be a nice option to serve as the receiving tight end alongside Rob Gronkowski.  After three anonymous seasons in Landover, the former fifth-rounder broke out in the final year of his rookie deal, notching 39 catches for 507 yards despite a painfully dysfunctional Washington offense.

Washington already employs a similar player in Jordan Reed, though Reed's injury history has overshadowed his droolworthy potential.  But it's probably too early to abandon him, which would likely make Paul the odd man out. 

Once top tight ends Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron are off the market, it would hardly be surprising to see Paul emerge as one of the most desirable options, alongside the likes of Charles Clay and Jermaine Gresham.

Tight end isn't necessarily a massive priority, as the Pats seem unlikely to suddenly jump ship on Wright.  Nevertheless, at the right value, it would be irresponsible not to at least examine a player who could possess a higher ceiling in the Pats offense.

8. Akeem Ayers

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Though the Pats have been fortunate to employ a pair of durable, three-down edge defenders in Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich, a lack of depth has forced them to overuse their workhorses in recent seasons.  With the midseason acquisition of Akeem Ayers, however, New England solved that problem in 2014, sacrificing only a sixth-rounder in the process.

As such, the Pats would probably like to see Ayers back in the offense.  Back in a system with more 4-3 one-gapping concepts, the ex-Tennessee Titan flashed the type of promise he showed before the Titans switched to a 3-4 in 2014.  Ayers accumulated four sacks in his first four games in Foxborough, as well as a critical interception in New England's Week 14 win at San Diego.

Given his familiarity with the system, Ayers would be the most logical candidate to serve as a third edge-rusher behind Jones and Ninkovich in 2015.  The only monkey wrench may be the former second-rounder's potential desire for more playing time.  After Jones returned from a hip injury in Week 15, Ayers played just 53 more snaps the rest of the season, per Pro Football Focus.

Still, during his time as a starter, Ayers ranked ninth at his position in pass-rushing productivity. That's slightly overstating his value by creating arbitrary endpoints, but it does highlight his sub-package value.  Though Ayers isn't necessarily a strong edge-setter like Jones or Ninkovich, he could serve as part of a lighter "NASCAR" package on passing downs.

It's unlikely that he'll command a large contract, as Ayers has never held down a starting position for a contender.  Though New England won't stretch itself too far in the bidding, Ayers is the type of player who could provide invaluable insurance and rest for Jones and Ninkovich.  With Ayers in tow, the Patriots wouldn't need to scramble for that insurance policy.

7. Roy Helu

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Alfred Morris is the star of the D.C. backfield, but Roy Helu has been an underrated third-down back for years.  As alluded to earlier, Shane Vereen will probably be the Patriots' top choice at running back this offseason.  But if Vereen prices himself out of Foxborough, Helu could be a less expensive option who could inflict similar damage in the Patriots offense.

Excluding a lost 2012 campaign, Helu has averaged roughly 37 catches and 369 yards per year in his other three seasons.  Those are similar to Vereen's career receiving numbers, but Helu's are arguably more impressive when factoring in Washington's general incompetence.  As ESPN Insider Adam Caplan relays, NFL executives highlighted Helu as an excellent value who has flown under the radar for years: 

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When the 5-foot-11, 220-pound running back was selected in the fourth round by the Redskins in the 2011 NFL draft, some NFL executives said that the team got an excellent value with that pick. The former Nebraska star wound up posting 200 total touches during his rookie season, and he has a very solid 4.4 yards per carry career average during his career. Other than his injury history (he missed 15 games total in 2014 and 2012), there's much to like about the 26-year-old back. If he makes it to free agency, he could have an interesting market due to his size and versatility.

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Helu's finances would likely be much more in line with the rest of the Patriots backfield, unlike the contract Vereen will garner.  Some might fret that the 26-year-old Helu will block James White's way to touches, but the Patriots have always been a ruthlessly calculating meritocracy.  If White earns touches, Helu will not stand in his way, and vice versa.

At the very least, Helu can minimize the drop-off at the passing back position if Vereen leaves and White is not ready to seize the reins.  Given the importance of that role for Brady, Helu is absolutely a player worth keeping tabs on.

6. Kenrick Ellis

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The Pats and New York Jets have had a rich history of poaching each others' rosters, and Kenrick Ellis could represent the next step in that saga.  Ellis isn't a particularly big name, as the 27-year-old nose tackle has seen his path to playing time blocked in New York's excellent defensive line.

However, the former third-rounder is a true run-stuffer at 6'5" and 345 pounds, the type of player who could replace Vince Wilfork's beef in the middle if the Patriots part with their defensive captain.  Pro Football Focus highlighted Ellis in its Secret Superstar series before the 2014 season, with Nathan Jahnke noting how Ellis has excelled despite limited snaps:

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Despite never playing more than 16 snaps against the run in a game all season, he definitely made the most of his opportunity. In his first game despite playing just 18 snaps, he had three highly-graded plays thanks to beating his block to make run stops. There was not a single game where he had a negative rating in run defense all season.

He ended up making 17 run stops on 114 run snaps on the season, which gave him a Run Stop Percentage of 14.9%. Over the last six years, John Henderson in 2010 was the only defensive or nose tackle with at least 100 snaps against the run and a better Run Stop Percentage.

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Ellis' 2014 campaign essentially mirrored the 2013 season that Jahnke outlined.  Despite playing just 158 total defensive snaps, Ellis had six run stops and a plus-2.3 run grade.  With Damon Harrison entrenched at nose tackle, Ellis and the Jets appear likely to part ways this offseason.

That could provide an opening for the Patriots, who would certainly provide Ellis more playing time if they deem him an acceptable cheaper alternative to Wilfork.  Ellis may be a pure two-down player, but the dimension he does provide could be an area of need this offseason.

5. Dan Connolly

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Dan Connolly has been written off for years, from the day he entered the league as an undrafted rookie to last offseason, when some (like this writer) expected him to miss the team.  So while the elder statesman of New England's 2014 O-line deserves consideration as a free agent, it would ultimately be disappointing to see him return as the starting left guard in 2015.

In truth, Connolly has been one of the league's worst regular guards each of the past two seasons.  After ranking 67th out of 81 guards in 2013 with a minus-13.3 overall grade, Connolly's minus-22.4 grade in 2014 sunk him to 72nd out of 78 at the position.  He's also given up 25 hits the past two seasons, the most in the league over that span.

Quite simply, even with Tom Brady's surprising late-career improvement in mobility, the Pats need to shore up their interior pass protection. 

Teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens were able to kick athletic edge-rushers Michael Bennett and Pernell McPhee inside and create glaring mismatches.  The Pats obviously survived both those foes in the postseason, but the pressure did limit the type of routes available to the offense.

There's also Connolly's injury history to consider.  Connolly's toughness is admirable, but since arriving in New England in 2008, he's suffered through a laundry list of maladies that include four different concussions.  Any deal would need to be a low-risk, one- or two-year pact with little guaranteed money.

Connolly probably holds more value as a locker room leader than for his on-field contributions, a factor that could have him stick around as at least a versatile interior backup.  However, there's one free agent from another team who could viably plug his spot at left guard next season.

4. Clint Boling

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Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin are the headliners of the guard free-agent class, but both are well out of New England's price range.  The same may or may not hold true for Boling, who has emerged as an underrated starter at left guard for the Cincinnati Bengals the last three seasons.

Boling has graded out between plus-5.0 and plus-9.0 in each of his starting years, illustrating someone who has been a consistently above-average starter throughout his rookie deal.  The next contract will take the 25-year-old through his prime years, so the Patriots or any other team could expect similarly consistent production over the life of the deal.

It won't be easy to pry Boling away from Cincinnati, as the Bengals have traditionally retained their own free agents rather than turning over personnel.  As a former fourth-round pick, Boling would seemingly embody that draft-and-develop mantra that has taken hold during the Marvin Lewis era.

If the Pats are able to free some cap space, though, Boling would be a nice system fit.  The Bengals run a lot of gap-blocking sequences that rely on power and communication rather than the lateral agility preferred by zone teams (think Gary Kubiak's system).  Similarly, New England doesn't typically run many traditional zone-blocking plays, especially now that they've dialed back their no-huddle usage.

Because of his age, there's a chance that the bidding for Boling gets too high for the Pats' comfort.  Still, if teams overlook him because of some movement limitations, the Pats could swoop in and solve a pressing deficiency in their starting lineup.

3. Stephen Gostkowski

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Between Adam Vinatieri and Stephen Gostkowski, the Patriots have had arguably the best kicking game over the last two decades.  As Gostkowski approaches the end of his second Patriots contract, the 31-year-old has shown no signs of slowing down, making him a top priority this offseason.

If the Patriots can get a deal worked out with Devin McCourty, Gostkowski would be a logical candidate for the franchise tag, which this year projects to sit at $4.1 million, per NFL Network's Albert Breer.  That feels a bit rich, though, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the two sides work out something similar in length to the five-year, $15.8 million deal Gostkowski just finished up.

That average annual salary would only leave Gostkowski eighth among kickers, though, so he'll probably receive a slight pay bump from his next employer.  Gostkowski has really gotten better with age, having missed just five field-goal attempts (73-of-78) over the past two seasons.  In that time span, his 93.6 percent conversion rate on field goals is best in the league among kickers with at least 30 attempts.

More pressingly, the Patriots wouldn't really have an adequate replacement if Gostkowski got away.  Justin Tucker and Matt Bryant are likely franchise-tag candidates with their own squads, which would leave erratic options like Matt Prater and Ryan Succop as the top options on the market.  The Pats could also turn to the draft for a new kicker, though that comes with considerably more risk than what they have with Gostkowski.

2. Jabaal Sheard

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Among outside free agents, Sheard represents the best combination of cost, future upside and team fit.  New England passed on Sheard early in the second round of the 2011 draft to select future bust Ras-I Dowling, but the Pats now have a chance to rectify that mistake from four offseasons ago.

After 15.5 sacks over his first two seasons, Sheard was once seen as a foundational defensive centerpiece in Cleveland.  But injuries and discomfort with Mike Pettine's 3-4 system conspired to hold Sheard to a career-low two sacks in 2014.  Among 3-4 outside linebackers, Sheard ranked 25th out of 29 qualifiers in pass-rushing productivity, with just 30 pressures over 326 rushes.

However, Sheard's best years came as a 4-3 defensive end, which could make him a better fit in New England's hybrid system. 

Akeem Ayers made this list earlier because of his ability to provide playable depth on the edge, but Sheard could give the Patriots a legitimately problematic top three on the edge.  His presence could keep Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich at around 70 percent in snap totals, a much more palatable total than what the starters have been playing.

It's unclear how much of a buy-low proposition Sheard truly is, but ESPNCleveland.com's Tony Grossi did note that the Browns are likely to let him leave.  Assuming that he becomes a target of 4-3 teams, Sheard could receive something in line with the two-year, $13 million "prove-it" type of deal that Cliff Avril got from Seattle two years ago.

That contract guess is pure speculation, but a short-term deal would be more in line with New England's preferences as it manages the upcoming wave of expiring defensive rookie deals.  In the short term, Sheard can inject the pass-rushing stability the Pats have been missing, thereby elevating that defense to another level.

1. Devin McCourty

Even if Darrelle Revis were eligible for this list, Devin McCourty would be a viable 1A candidate as the Patriots' most important offseason priority.  Bill Belichick's defense has transformed behind improved cornerback talent over the past three seasons, but the ability to move McCourty to a more natural center field position has played an almost equal role in improving a once-leaky secondary.

McCourty has consequently garnered consideration as one of the league's best free safeties, with multiple free-agent ranking lists highlighting him as one of the premier names on the market.  Given the increasing popularity of single-high man-free coverages, a rangy player like McCourty could break the bank if he wanted.

Fortunately, it appears that his desire to stay in Foxborough will outweigh whatever bidding might materialize on the open market.  Jason McCourty, his twin brother cornerback on the Tennessee Titans, revealed to NJ.com's Dan Duggan that Devin and the Patriots have a strong mutual interest in a long-term agreement:

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As March closes in he'll get a chance to see what New England wants to do, and I know he wants to be back there. He feels like that's home. I think that's where he'll want to play his entire career.

I'll see what I can do. It's going to be hard to get him out of New England. You know how the business side of it goes. We'll see. If he becomes a free agent, I'll be doing everything in my power to try to get him to Tennessee.

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At the very least, New England seems likely to slap the roughly $9.5 million franchise tag on McCourty to buy more negotiating time.  McCourty's average annual salary on a long-term deal will still probably rest at around $9 million (like Jairus Byrd's contract from 2014), but regardless, the most important priority on this list is also the likeliest to end up in Foxborough for the 2015 season.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus.