Power Ranking Each Houston Rockets Player Heading into 2015 NBA All-Star Break

The Houston Rockets are on their All-Star break, and they have to be pleased. They own a 36-17 record, tied for fourth-best in the NBA. And that’s come in spite of enough injuries to fill a hospital ward. It’s a good time for us to pause and power rank the Rockets players.

For the purpose of these rankings, we’re only looking at the current roster, not players who have been traded or cut during the season. So contributors like Tarik Black, whose role was certainly appreciated, are not included.

The players are ranked based on a blend of how much and how well they’ve played. In addition, how they are projected to do going forward was considered. While Basketball-Reference.com’s win shares metric was used as a starting point, subjective criteria nudged some of those up or down.

Players 11-15

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15. Alexey Shved: Shved was acquired from the Philadelphia 76ers as part of a three-team trade (which also brought Corey Brewer from the Timberwolves) on Dec. 19. Since then he has played 59 minutes. He’s ostensibly there to be parlayed in a future trade, which is his only value to the Rockets.

14. Clint Capela: The rookie has been back and forth with the Rockets’ D-League affiliate, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. He’s had eight rebounds for Houston and has yet to score a point.

13. Nick Johnson: Johnson is in the same situation as Capella but with a little more production. He has 55 points, 24 boards and six assists in 185 minutes. He’s played 2:03 since Jan. 3.

12. Isaiah Canaan: Canaan played a larger role for the Rockets earlier in the season but has fallen out of the rotation—even to the point of being sent down to the Vipers for a while. He’s played 10 minutes since Jan. 10. He’s the best Rocket not in the top 10, but he’s not getting time.

11. Joey Dorsey: Dorsey is supposed to be a defensive specialist, and he’s starting in place of the injured Dwight Howard. Per the media version of NBA.com/Stats, the Rockets’ defensive rating is 104.4 with him starting and 102.0 without him. So he’s not helping there. And his offense (2.1 points per game) provides even less. His only value is being a decent rebounder, at 11.7 per 36 minutes, per Basketball-Reference.com.

10. Kostas Papanikolaou

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Kostas Papanikolaou was a major part of the Rockets rotation through the first part of the season, averaging 25.5 minutes through Dec. 5, per Basketball-Reference.com. He wasn’t great at any one thing, but he did a lot of them competently, notching 6.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, .9 steals and .5 blocks per game during that span.

However, after the Rockets acquired Corey Brewer first, then Josh Smith on Dec. 24, Papanikolaou saw less of the court. Since Smith‘s arrival, the rookie has just 13.5 minutes per game with 2.8 points, 1.7 rebounds and 1.1 assists.

If I'm the general manager of another team and the Rockets are pressing me for a trade, I want Papanikalou to be a part of it. He not only has a fairly complete skill set already, he has a high basketball IQ and seems to be adapting to the NBA quickly. His role has diminished because of the situation, not his play. 

He has a promising future, but in the present, it seems he’s going to be the 10th man.

9. Terrence Jones

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Terrence Jones has had a discouraging, frustrating season. In the Rockets’ season opener on Oct. 28, he scored 16 points and grabbed 13 rebounds. It looked like he was going to have a breakout season.

But after four games, he had to sit out with a bruised nerve in his leg, which cost him the next 41 games. He finally came back on Jan. 28. Over that span, he saw Donatas Motiejunas blossom and take his place in the starting lineup. And with the Smith signing, he fell to third on the depth chart among Rockets power forwards.

Jones played seven games as a reserve, averaging just 19 minutes, 6.1 points and 3.0 rebounds. His decreased production is largely a product of losing his timing and game conditioning, not a continuance of the injury.

And then when he finally was starting to get back into a rhythm, he missed the last two games before the break with illness. While he may have a larger role to play for the second half of the season, it doesn’t appear it’s going to be what it was heading into the season.   

8. Jason Terry

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Jason Terry can shoot. According to NBA.com/Stats, he’s scoring 1.22 points per play on spot-up plays, which is eighth-best among players with at least 100 attempts. In the four games he started, he averaged 16.5 points, 4.5 assists and 3.8 rebounds.

In addition, he’s provided a veteran presence. After an 18-point performance on Nov. 30, Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle quoted Rockets coach Kevin McHale on Terry: “He brings so much character to our team, such a willingness to just play basketball the right way and he is a wonderful guy to be around so I think everyone is excited for him."

Something like that can’t be really quantified. Terry’s playing time has tailed off with the additions of Brewer and Smith. He’s notching just 17.2 minutes since Jan. 1, but his role as a team leader and scorer off the bench is still an important part of the team going forward.

7. Patrick Beverley

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Patrick Beverley was on the All-Defensive team last year, but he’s not stopping opponents nearly as well this season. And with below-average offensive output, his overall value is dropping fast.

His numbers aren’t terrible. He gives up .75 points per play guarding the ball-handler on the pick-and-roll, placing him in the 58th percentile. On the spot-up he gives up .90 points per play, which is good for the 69.8 percentile.

However, opponents shoot 46.3 percent against him overall, which is 1.9 percentage points better than their season averages.

He does some things well, but overall, he’s at best average defensively. And that’s just not enough for a starting point guard averaging 10.7 points and 3.3 assists.

For that reason, don’t be surprised if the Rockets make a deal for a new point guard before the trade deadline.

6. Corey Brewer

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Corey Brewer has been a boost to the Rockets’ bench. In spite of the fact he didn’t come over in a trade until Dec. 19, Brewer is already the team leader in points off the bench with 314. And while that’s been nice, it’s only a piece of what Brewer is bringing.

The Rockets’ net rating is 2.9 points better with Brewer on the court. He’s one of the few players they have who can let Harden sit without watching a lead dissolve into nothingness or a deficit grow. With Brewer on the court and Harden off, Houston plays its opponents virtually even, with a net rating of minus-.3. Compare that to the minus-5.0 the Rockets are without Harden, generally.

Brewer is a glue player for them, filling in wherever they need when they need it. He’s able to shoot the three or cut to the rim. He can score off the bounce or the pass. He can play the 2 or the 3.

His malleability makes him a valuable asset for the Rockets and perhaps the key to the “Headband of Brothers” (a reference to him, Jason Terry and Josh Smith, who all wear headbands). That trio is plus-12.6 when they’re on the court together.

5. Josh Smith

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Put all your Josh Smith shooting jokes in the wastebasket next to your “James Harden doesn’t play defense” jokes. They’re no longer valid. Smith has been lighting the net on fire lately. He’s hitting 46.7 percent from deep over his last 13 games.

Since he’s started coming off the bench for the Rockets, he’s been one of the best sixth men in the league. He’s averaging 12.9 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists in that capacity. His assist numbers don’t adequately express the value of his passing. Most of them come off drives that open up three-point shots for his teammates, with 47.8 percent of his assists resulting in treys.

His “game score” (a single-number developed by John Hollinger) of 9.8 is fifth-best among players with at least 500 minutes.

The plus/minus numbers are revealing too. The Rockets are also plus-7.8 with him on the court when he’s playing as a reserve. Their bench was outscored by 1.9 points per game before Smith’s arrival. Since then, it’s plus-2.0.

Twitter may mock it, but Smith helps the Rockets.

4. Dwight Howard

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Dwight Howard has been solid when he’s in, but the whole problem has been with the second half of that phrase. Howard’s easily the second-best player on the team, but he’s only played 32 games while he’s been out for 21.

The problem has been his knee. First he missed 12 games from Nov. 19 to Dec. 11. Now, he’s hurt again, and he could miss a lot more games. Creech wrote on Feb. 8:

"

Howard, who is out with edema in his right knee, said that he was given a 6-8 week time frame to rest and rehab before returning to the Rockets. He will be re-evaluated before that time and Dr. Walt Lowe said he could return earlier. It all depends on how much pain Howard is in.

"

The Rockets do miss his presence, especially on defense. Their defensive rating is 97.4 with him on the court and 102.2 with him off.  They’ve struggled in his latest absence in particular. Since he’s been out of the lineup, the Rockets defense has been just 102.7, which is only 15th in the league.

Howard’s box-score numbers might not be on the level of what he’s produced for his career, but they’re still exceptional: 16.3 points on 57.5 percent shooting, 11.0 rebounds and 1.4 blocks.

3. Trevor Ariza

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Trevor Ariza is a big part of the reason that the Rockets have turned their defense around in spite of the fact that Howard has missed so much time. Last year they were giving up 103.1 points per 100 possessions, and this season they’ve improved that number by almost three full points to 100.3.

Ariza normally takes on the opponents’ best wing and does so with impressive success. He yields just .69 points per play defending the ball-handler in the pick and roll, placing him in the 76.4 percentile. He gives up .71 points per play in isolation, the 77.4 percentile. Against the spot up, his opponents are averaging .90 points per play, which puts Ariza in the 69.6 percentile.

In other words, he’s consistently turning that best wing on the other team into a below-average scorer.

Ariza is only averaging 12.6 points and 2.3 assists per game. He’s shooting just 33.1 percent from deep. But he wasn’t brought to Space City to do those things. And the job he’s been doing on defense is truly out of this world.

2. Donatas Motiejunas

Donatas Motiejunas probably should be in the Most Improved Player conversation, even considering how much that improvement has come as the season has progressed. His development in the post has been remarkable.

According to Creech, he’s been working with Hakeem Olajuwon, and it seems to be working. He’s learned to pivot off either feet. His go-to is his hook shot. Only Roy Hibbert has made more such field goals.

Motiejunas has become one of the best post-up players in the league. He’s scored 186 points on post-up plays at a rate of 1.03 per play. His total is the 17th-highest in the league, and no one in the top 50 is more efficient than him. His rate places him in the 87.6 percentile.

In Howard’s recent absence, Motiejunas has been the main threat down low, averaging 14.9 points on 54.8 percent shooting. It’s essential for the Rockets to be able to maintain a semblance of scoring there because when they don’t, they become a three-point shooting team that doesn’t make threes.

1. James Harden

James Harden isn’t just the top of this power ranking. He should be at the top of the MVP power ranking. His traditional stat line is already eye-popping: 27.4 points, 6.8 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game. He’s done all that while scoring efficiently with a 61.1 true shooting percentage.

Only one other player has ever had 25 points, six assists, five rebounds, two steals and a 60 percent true shooting percentage in NBA history: Michael Jordan. And the box scores only touch on Harden’s value.

The offense becomes utterly stagnant the moment he hits the bench. They score 107.7 points per 100 possessions with him and just 91.7 without him.

His offensive real plus-minus, tracked by ESPN.com, is the highest in the NBA: 7.18.

And we’re only talking about his offense. He has emerged as a real force on the other side too. He has been criticized for being laziness on  defense in the past. This year, it’s hard to make that claim. Combining the Synergy play types, Harden has defended 2,765 plays—the most of any perimeter player in the league (and 664 more than MVP rival Stephen Curry).

And, when he’s done so, he’s been effective. Opponents have shot 2.1 percentage points below their season averages against him.

Harden has a legitimate claim to title of the game’s most complete player and the most valuable.

Advanced stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise noted.