2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Minnesota Vikings Stars
The Minnesota Vikings fantasy football stars carry late-season growth into 2015 after a bumpy start. Charles Johnson and Teddy Bridgewater emerged as Adrian Peterson disappeared due to his arrest on child-abuse charges.
Veteran offensive coordinator Norv Turner weathered losing his All-Pro running back after Week 1 and his starting quarterback in Week 3 in his first year with the Vikings. Minnesota still managed to finish 20th in scoring, according to Pro Football Reference—adjusted to 27th in standard fantasy scoring.
General manager Rick Spielman’s biggest offseason decision is what to do with Peterson once the league reinstates him.
Until then, head coach Mike Zimmer and Turner have plenty of work ahead for a roster full of potential fantasy stars in 2015.
Honorable Mention
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Christian Ponder, QB
Ponder expects his tumultuous four years in Minnesota to end as the unrestricted free agent hits the open market, according to Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star Tribune: "I’m excited about the opportunities, but it’s sad to leave a place where I made a lot of friends and have been comfortable with my surroundings. This is where I’ve called home the past four years. But I am looking forward to a fresh start and hopefully rejuvenating my career."
The 2011 first-rounder out of Florida State merits zero fantasy attention heading into 2015.
Henry Josey, RB
Minnesota signed Josey in December to replace Ben Tate after his release, according to ESPN.com’s Michael DiRocco via Twitter.
"Minnesota has signed RB Henry Josey to its active roster.
— Michael DiRocco (@ESPNdirocco) December 24, 2014
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The diminutive 5’8”, 194-pound running back out of Missouri will compete for a backup spot in 2015.
Adam Thielen, WR
Thielen is a fan favorite out of Detroit Lakes, Minnesota. The second-year wide receiver went undrafted out of Minnesota State-Mankato—Go Mavericks!—but elevated off the practice squad thanks to special teams contributions.
He finished 2014 with a three-catch, 69-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Chicago Bears in a meaningless Week 17 snoozer. Thielen won’t be noteworthy in fantasy unless he passes Cordarrelle Patterson and/or Jarius Wright on the depth chart.
Chase Ford, TE
Ford became the primary receiving tight end when Kyle Rudolph was sidelined with a sports hernia.
Rhett Ellison is primarily used as a blocker.
The towering (6’6”, 245) third-year backup out of Miami played decently as a reserve, amassing 19 receptions for 212 yards in Rudolph’s absence, according to Pro Football Reference.
But Ford didn’t flash much fantasy value for 2015 even if he replaces Rudolph again.
Joe Banyard, RB
Banyard’s capability as a backup made Ben Tate expendable just three games into his Vikings career, according to ESPN.com’s Field Yates via Twitter.
"Source: the Vikings have released RB Ben Tate.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 23, 2014
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The undrafted three-year veteran out of Texas-El Paso—Go Miners!—will remain buried on the depth chart to start 2015.
Matt Cassel, QB
If Cassel returns to the Vikings at all, Mike Zimmer said it will be as Teddy Bridgewater’s backup, according to Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
“Teddy is the quarterback. There's no doubt in my mind he's the quarterback to run this team.”
Cassel won the starting job over Bridgewater to open 2014, but he landed on injured reserve after breaking his foot in Week 3.
Minnesota won’t owe Cassel a dime of the last $4.75 million on his three-year contract if he’s cut, according to Over the Cap. But the Vikings might chose to keep the 10-year journeyman at the same or lower rate in order for him to mentor Bridgewater heading into his first full NFL offseason.
Either way, Cassel carries no fantasy value into 2015.
Matt Asiata, RB
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Asiata excelled as Minnesota’s red-zone workhorse after it deactivated Adrian Peterson leading up to his eventual suspension.
The third-year bruiser out of Utah started the next four games until ceding Minnesota’s RB1-spot to Jerick McKinnon in Week 6, according to Pro Football Reference. McKinnon’s 4.8 yards per attempt outshined Asiata’s 3.5 in 2014.
At 6’0”, 234 pounds, Asiata got the call in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He finished eighth among running backs in red-zone fantasy scoring, according to CBS Sports.com.
Only Marshawn Lynch and DeMarco Murray had more red-zone rushing touchdowns (12 apiece) than Asiata (nine).
Asiata quietly finished 19th among running backs in receiving yards with 312 on 44 receptions, according to ESPN.com. Still, he rated last among running backs who were involved on 50 percent or more snaps in every fantasy-relevant category, according to Pro Football Focus.
Asiata’s red-zone prowess could be dampened in 2015 after Pro Bowl fullback Jerome Felton decided to opt for free agency.
"Want to thank the Vikings organization for the last three years, it's been a life changing few years and I have so much respect and
— jerome felton (@jfelton45) February 3, 2015
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Don’t expect Asiata to repeat his 10-touchdown performance in 2015, which will severely limit his fantasy value.
Jarius Wright, WR
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Wright leapfrogged the ineffective Cordarrelle Patterson on the depth chart during a breakout 2014 campaign. The Vikings WR3 probably made the decision to release Jerome Simpson easier as well, aiding his desire for a contract extension, according to Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
"Being the third receiver, I do think I’ve done enough [for an extension]. But it’s kind of not up to me," he said. "I mean, you definitely have more security. You feel better knowing if you’re able to lock up a contract extension."
A contract extension Wright would probably coincide with Greg Jennings’ renegotiation or release.
The third-year fourth-rounder out of Arkansas increased his production each season, culminating in 42 catches of 588 yards and two touchdowns in 2014, according to Pro Football Reference.
Expect that pattern to continue in 2015 as Wright enters what is currently his contract year.
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Cordarrelle Patterson, WR
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The high expectations for Patterson’s second season toppled so low the Vikings benched him Week 14. The demotion probably had as much do to with Charles Johnson’s undeniable emergence, but Mike Zimmer emphasized injuries and missed practice time, per Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
"He missed two days of practice. He missed Wednesday and Thursday of practice. And so it’s hard to get involved too much in the game when you’re missing that much time. He came back on Friday and practiced. I’m going to keep saying this over and over until somebody believes me that I am in this guy’s corner.
The worst, the biggest thing for me is that I say, ‘We don’t want him in there. We don’t want to do this. We don’t want to that.’ That’s ridiculous. I want every one of our players to be good and be great and we all want instant gratification, including myself but sometimes this takes a little bit longer than it does. So I have high hopes for him. I’m in his corner. I want him to be a good player. It would help this football team. It would help me. It would help everybody around that he becomes a great player, but it might not be right away.
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Norv Turner added his own insights on Patterson, per Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune:
"It’s frustrating for him; it’s frustrating for all of us. We’ve talked a lot about what we need to do, what he needs to do. But a big part of it for him is understanding how detailed and how hard this is to be a receiver in this league. And then he’s got to put the work in.
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Zimmer and the Vikings proved their allegiance to the 2013 first-rounder out of Tennessee by announcing the hiring of an anonymous adviser with experience as a player, coach and mentor, according to Brian Murphy of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
"Cordarrelle, he's a really good kid. He's very respectful in everything he does. It's not really about life, although I'm sure this guy will teach him some about life, too. It's more about playing, being a receiver.
I think this will be good for him and hopefully he'll follow through and get to where he needs to get to.
"
Speculation on the unidentified guru is flowing in from both reputable and other (NSFW) sources.
Patterson’s explosiveness with the ball in his hands is undeniable. He earned a No. 2 grade as a runner among his receiving peers in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s down one spot from his top-rated rookie season.
If Minnesota’s offseason intervention works, Patterson should achieve the level anticipated in 2014. Until he shows it, he’s nothing more than a sleeper pick heading into the 2015 draft.
Greg Jennings, WR
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Jennings is scheduled to make $11 million over each of the next three seasons, according to Over the Cap. The nine-year veteran free agent from the Green Bay Packers is two seasons into a five-year, $45 million contract which ranks 10th among wide receivers, according to Over the Cap.
His production doesn’t merit such a lofty deal, as he finished 39th and 40th in standard fantasy scoring among wide receivers in 2013 and 2014, respectively, according to Pro Football Reference.
The obvious remedy from Minnesota’s perspective is a salary restructure, according to Larry Hartstein of CBS Sports. But if Jennings doesn’t agree, then he would become a likely cap casualty by the opening of the 2015 league year on March 10.
Jennings’ 2015 fantasy value is tied directly to his contract decision. He’s a flex at most if he remains with the Vikings but garners a limited upside if he moves to a stronger offense.
Kyle Rudolph, TE
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Rudolph started as many games in 2013-14 (16) as he did during his 2012 Pro Bowl season.
The 2011 second-rounder out of Notre Dame caught 53 passes for 493 yards and nine touchdowns that year. He’s added only 54 catches for 544 yards and five touchdowns since.
It was a frustrating season for Rudolph owners especially after he proclaimed himself the best tight end in the league, according to Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Although it didn’t pan out, that kind of bravado is desirable in a top fantasy player.
Rudolph blamed a difficult recovery process once he returned from sports hernia surgery in Week 11, according to Tomasson.
"We're getting there. But at this time, when you're in season, there's not enough [time] that you can do to get back to the level that I was playing at in August. ... For me, it will be a normal offseason. I feel like with the progress that I've been able to make over these last couple weeks, I just need that time.
It's not going to be anything that I have to do differently. Obviously, that area will be a point of emphasis for me in my training, but there won't be anything I do differently to get back to the level I was playing at.
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Rudolph should rate as a second-tier tight end in 2015’s fantasy draft given his combination of skills tempered with injury concerns.
Jerick McKinnon, RB
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Minnesota took McKinnon in the third round—No. 96 overall—as Adrian Peterson’s understudy after Toby Gerhart left for Jacksonville via free agency.
The converted quarterback out of Georgia Southern—Go Eagles!—found himself thrust into the starting position after the Vikings deactivated Peterson.
He contributed 673 combined yards in six starts, splitting time with Matt Asiata. McKinnon rushed to third place among rookie running backs until a back injury ended his season in early December.
The Vikings are built to run, as evidenced by their 10th-place finish in run blocking, according to Pro Football Focus.
But is McKinnon?
He stands just 5’9”, weighing in at 208 pounds. His 4.41-second 40-yard-dash time is impressive, but speedy running backs don’t tend to earn feature carries where it counts. McKinnon finished 2014 with zero touchdowns to Matt Asiata’s 10 combined.
McKinnon is best left as a flex prospect in 2015 until he demonstrates the durability and elusiveness to command an NFL backfield.
Charles Johnson, WR
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Johnson literally came out of nowhere—aka the Cleveland Browns practice squad—and made waves in the second half of 2014.
All-Pro Chicago Bears wideout Brandon Marshall took notice, as Johnson told Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press.
"He came up to me after the game and he said, 'Hey, man, much respect; you're a baller, you're really good.' Teddy [Bridgewater] was standing there and [Marshall] said to him, 'Why didn't you tell me about him? Invite him to our [offseason] camp.' Teddy was like, 'We just signed him.' It was pretty cool.
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Green Bay’s seventh-rounder in 2013 bounced from the Packers practice squad to the Browns before the Vikings signed him in September. Minnesota deactivated Adrian Peterson to make room for Johnson.
The Grand Valley State product—Go Lakers!—led the team in receiving yards after the Week 10 bye with 283. Johnson—6’2”, 215 pounds—will be just 26 years old in 2015. He’s primed to take Minnesota’s No. 1 wideout reins away from Greg Jennings—5’11”, 195 pounds—who will be 32 in September.
Johnson enters a pivotal offseason two years removed from ACL surgery and two seasons into Norv Turner’s offense, according to Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
"Next year will be my first year to actually get my first full year to play in the NFL and two years in a row of practicing and playing in the same system. Even Norv said the first season in this system is all right, but the second season is always better.
I’m going to be a little bit more comfortable because I am coming off ACL surgery. I can say that I’m coming off ACL surgery and not fully confident in myself. Training this offseason is going to be important for me. I look forward to it.
"
Plug Johnson in somewhere between WR20 to 30 in the 2015 draft and watch that upside materialize.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB
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Bridgewater finished at the head of the class among 2014 rookie quarterbacks, according to ESPN.com. The first-rounder out of Louisville—Go Cardinals!—averaged 13.4 standard fantasy points in 12 starts to lead his first-year peers.
| --------------------- | Team | Starts | Avg. Pts. |
| Teddy Bridgewater | Minnesota Vikings | 12 | 13.4 |
| Zach Mettenberger | Tennessee Titans | 6 | 11.5 |
| Derek Carr | Oakland Raiders | 16 | 11.1 |
| Blake Bortles | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 | 10.8 |
| Johnny Manziel | Cleveland Browns | 2 | 0.5 |
His 2,919 yards passing and ratio of 14 touchdowns to 12 interceptions landed him on several All-Rookie teams: Pro Football Writers of America, SportsIllustrated.com and NFL.com.
Bridgewater’s superior performance proves the worthiness of his early hype that eventually drowned out by draft day 2014.
He topped the list of NFL prospects as early as the spring of 2013, according to Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com.
"He has a rocket for an arm, plays in a pro-style offense and has the size teams love. He will be the No. 1 pick next April.
[Matt] Barkley once was considered the potential overall top pick this year, and fell to the fourth round. I doubt that will happen to Bridgewater, the top player and quarterback on my early top-32 list for the 2014. He is too good for that to happen.
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Bridgewater remained the early favorite as the 2013 season closed out, according to ESPN Insider Todd McShay.
"Bridgewater has great football intelligence, is mentally and physically tough, and has proved he can beat opponents from inside the pocket; he can read defenses, has a quick release and is very accurate. If he isn't the top overall pick, it'll be because of questions about his durability. He'll also need to hold off UCF quarterback Blake Bortles during the draft process. Bortles isn't as polished as Bridgewater but does have a higher ceiling.
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NFL Network’s Mike Mayock explained why everything changed after a bad pro day, according to Matt Vensel of the Minneapolis Star Tribune: "I’ve never seen a top-level quarterback in the last 10 years have a bad pro day, until Teddy Bridgewater. He had no accuracy, the ball came out funny, the arm strength wasn’t there, and it made me question everything I saw on tape because this was live."
ESPN’s John Gruden agreed, per Vensel: "If the player didn’t work out well for me, I didn’t move him down. I took him off our board. If you’re not having good individual workouts, and you don’t have a good pro-day workout, that’s part of the evaluation process."
Bridgewater’s successful rookie campaign exposed a flaw in the evaluation process to the ultimate benefit of the Vikings, who snagged him with the last pick in the first round. ESPN Insider Mel Kiper Jr. summed it up in his annual NFL re-draft article (h/t Christopher Gates of SB Nation’s Daily Norseman).
"They also have a player in Teddy Bridgewater, who was the top QB on my all-rookie team. Sure, you can question whether he'll become a star, but you can't question that he looked more ready for this level of competition than any other rookie QB, and that he's simply tough. I really like Bridgewater's chances, and as I said then, ‘moving decisively to get [him] made sense, and they have the pieces around him to help him succeed.’
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Bridgewater appears poised to grow heading into his first year as Minnesota’s full-time starter. He merits QB2 consideration in 2015.
Adrian Peterson, RB
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Peterson and the NFL Players Association made their early-reinstatement case against the league on February 6. At issue is the desire to be eligible for league activity by March 10—the start of the league year—not April 15, according to Kelly Smith of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
The three-time All Pro running back missed 15 games in 2014 due to his suspension for child abuse.
Peterson feels his side was finally heard, according to ESPN.com’s Ben Goessling via Twitter.
"Brief comment from Peterson: "I felt like a got a fair hearing, for once. I appreciate all the support from my fans."
— Ben Goessling (@GoesslingESPN) February 6, 2015
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Incidentally, there isn’t a single comment listed below that tweet.
The former face of the Vikings franchise wants to be active at the opening of the 2015 league year in order to maximize his trade or free-agency value, according to Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio on PFT Live: "Adrian Peterson wants to be reinstated by March 10 so he can be traded. That’s really the issue here. That’s really the goal. Get Adrian Peterson reinstated by March 10 and then see what happens. Plenty of teams will be interested."
Rick Spielman agrees with Florio but is careful to note Peterson is still a Viking and that both he and Mike Zimmer would like him back, according to Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
"I don’t know if there’s a team in the NFL that wouldn’t want Adrian Peterson on the football team.
I know that Adrian is a good person, just being around him. I know he’s done a lot of good in this community. What he did – he just came out and said he made a mistake. As Zim had stated earlier, he has to get all that in order and then we’ll proceed from there.
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Peterson is scheduled to make $15.4 million in 2015, a potentially cost-prohibitive number for a building franchise with $16.1 million left under the cap, according to Over the Cap.
Whether he remains with Minnesota or moves on, the potential Hall of Famer will be among the top players taken in upcoming fantasy drafts, just like he was in 2014.
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