Grading the James Shields Deal, Fresh NL West Team Rankings
The wait is finally over.
Less than two weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, free agent James Shields has finally decided where he'll be pitching in 2015 and beyond.
The workhorse starter will be joining the San Diego Padres as perhaps the final piece of a drastic offseason overhaul that has the team looking like a legitimate contender for the first time in years.
TOP NEWS
Assessing Every MLB Team's Development System ⚾
.png?w=256)
10 Scorching MLB Takes 🌶️
Yankees Call Up 6'7" Prospect 📈
Chris Cotillo of SB Nation broke the story.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports later clarified the exact terms of the contract.
We'll get to where the new-look Padres now stand in the NL West picture in a bit, but first, let's take a closer look at the specifics of the contract Shields waited all winter for.
Grading the Deal
James Shields
Shields was viewed as the clear No. 3 option on the free-agent market this offseason behind Max Scherzer and Jon Lester, but as a proven front-line arm and with the ever-rising cost of quality pitching, a nine-figure deal didn't seem out of the question by any means.
In fact, it actually seemed likely at one point this offseason, when it was reported that Shields had a five-year, $110 million offer on the table from an unknown team, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
However, that deal never came to fruition, and Shields would later deny that he ever rejected such a deal, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
So it winds up being $18.75 million annually, albeit at a total value less than half of what Scherzer (seven-year, $210 million) and Lester (six-year, $155 million) received from the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs, respectively.
That's enough to make Shields the 15th-highest-paid pitcher in baseball right now based on average annual value, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Maybe not quite the deal he was hoping for this offseason, but a respectable haul nonetheless.
Grade: B
San Diego Padres
For the Padres, this marks the largest free-agent signing in franchise history by a significant margin, blowing past the two-year, $15.5 million deal given to Joaquin Benoit last offseason.
That being said, it was a cheaper move than trading for Cole Hamels, whom the Padres reportedly had at least some level of interest in during their push to add another front-line starter.
Not only is Hamels owed $100 million over the next four years, but he also would have cost some quality prospect talent, something the Padres have done a good job of holding onto this offseason.
Despite all the trades they have pulled the trigger on, catcher Austin Hedges, outfielder Hunter Renfroe and right-hander Matthew Wisler—the team's consensus top three prospects—are all still in the fold.
New general manager A.J. Preller has been extremely aggressive this offseason in trying to put a contender on the field in 2015, and while the rotation already boasted a solid trio of Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy, adding Shields was a smart move.
That leaves reclamation project Brandon Morrow as the likely No. 5 starter and allows the duo of Robbie Erlin and Odrisamer Despaigne to serve as depth should injury strike or Morrow falter.
It's also come out that Shields actually took a bit less money to come to San Diego, so the Padres are getting a player who genuinely wants to be there—and there is something to be said for that.
The Padres ranked fourth in the league in team ERA (3.27) and ninth in starters' ERA (3.55) last season, but they were wise not to simply rest on their laurels, and all things considered, the Shields signing looks like a great decision.
It bears mentioning that the Padres now have both key pieces of the blockbuster trades between the Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays from a few years ago, as they also picked up Wil Myers in a trade earlier this offseason.
Grade: A
Fresh NL West Rankings
The Shields signing not only makes the Padres a better team, but it undoubtedly has an impact on the NL West as a whole.
In the most recent version of my MLB power rankings, published back on Jan. 19 following the Washington Nationals' signing of Max Scherzer, the five NL West teams checked in as follows:
| 4 | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 15 | San Francisco Giants |
| 17 | San Diego Padres |
| 25 | Arizona Diamondbacks |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies |
At the bottom, the Colorado Rockies are the same stacked offense/zero pitching team they have been for years now. It's hard to see them finishing anywhere but the cellar, even if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez can stay healthy.
Just above them, the Arizona Diamondbacks have had a busy offseason under the new front office duo Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa, with the highlight being the signing of Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas.
They're heading in the right direction, and the middle-of-the-order trio of Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo and Tomas could hit a ton of home runs, but they don't appear to have the pitching to be anything but a .500 team at best.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers have had a busy offseason in their own right, with new President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman taking an aggressive approach in retooling the roster after consecutive disappointing postseason exits.
Outside of the Washington Nationals, the Dodgers may have the best rotation in baseball, though they are relying on a pair of injury risks at the back of the staff in Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson.
Gone from the offense are Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Dee Gordon, with the team adding the new double play combination of Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins and counting on top prospect Joc Pederson to replace Kemp in the outfield.
It's a different Dodgers team, there's no question about that, but LA still looks like the team to beat in the NL West and one of the favorites in the National League.
That leaves us with the San Francisco Giants and the Padres, and the Shields signing is enough to push the Padres into that No. 2 spot in the division in my mind.
The Giants are a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" type team, so losing someone like Pablo Sandoval doesn't hurt them as much as it might have hurt some teams offensively.
No, it's their pitching that's concerning.
Madison Bumgarner is a stud, no one is going to argue otherwise, but the rest of the starting rotation is questionable at best.
Tim Hudson had a 4.73 ERA in the second half last year after an All-Star performance in the first half, and entering his age-39 season, he may be no better than a 4.00 ERA pitcher at this point.
Jake Peavy was phenomenal after joining the Giants at the deadline, but he's not going to post a 2.4 HR/FB rate again. Matt Cain is coming off of surgeries on his elbow and ankle, and the No. 5 starter job will go to either Tim Lincecum or Ryan Vogelsong.
That's one bona fide ace and four guys who could very well end up being league-average starters at best. Even with a solid offense and a terrific bullpen, the Giants are a team built on pitching, and that rotation looks like their weakest in years.
Meanwhile, the Padres have added Shields to a pitching staff that was already one of the best in baseball, and they now have a legitimate offense to back it up after ranking last in the league in team batting average, OPS and runs scored a year ago.
There are still question marks.
The infield as a whole is weak, and the health of Matt Kemp and Wil Myers will also be key, but there is no denying that this is a better team than the one that went 77-85 to finish third in the NL West last year.
At the very least, the Padres look to be in a great position to contend for an NL wild-card spot, and if the offense jells quickly and the pitching staff stays healthy, it's not inconceivable to think they could give the Dodgers a run for their money at the top.
The Shields signing is the cherry on top of a fantastic offseason for a Padres team that will be one to watch heading into 2015.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
