SEC Football: Early Odds for Each Team to Make the 2015-16 Playoff
With its reputation and talent level, it stands to reason the SEC is virtually a guarantee to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. Getting two in there is even possible, as it looked for much of last season.
But which team(s) will that be in 2015?
We're more than six months out from the first games of the upcoming season, but it's never too early to start speculating and surmising. For entertainment purposes, we'll even post some early odds for each team to reach the playoffs.
Take note: The odds given to each team are relatively arbitrary and are in relation to one another and not all of FBS. They're also not likely indicative of what a reputable oddsmaker would come up with; rather, they're meant to illustrate the road each SEC school has ahead and how that could affect its chances.
Scroll through to see what odds we're giving for all 14 SEC schools to be playoff-bound at the end of the 2015 season.
Vanderbilt
1 of 14
If you're looking for a long shot to bet the farm on, Vanderbilt provides the odds but not a real likelihood to pay off.
The Commodores were abysmal in 2014, getting blown out far too often to think this team would be close to turning a corner this season. They used four quarterbacks, and none were effective; the only offensive pieces worth getting excited about for this fall are tight end Steven Scheu and running back Ralph Webb. And both of their performances still weren't that great.
Vandy is more likely to be a team centered on some promising young defenders, with the linebacker trio of junior Stephen Weatherly and sophomores Nigel Bowden and Zach Cunningham worth watching. Beyond that, though, it's slim pickings.
After having one of the easiest nonconference schedules among power teams last year, Vanderbilt could conceivably lose three of four (to Western Kentucky and at Middle Tennessee and Houston), while there seems to be very few SEC games that the Commodores can steal.
Odds: 100-1
Kentucky
2 of 14
It's a now-or-nothing year for Kentucky in Mark Stoops' third season, but the goals are more geared toward getting six wins rather than all 12.
The Wildcats were 5-1 at the midway point in 2014, only to lose their last six as youth, inexperience and a lack of talent caught up to them. This season the schedule is far more difficult, with a similar start very unlikely unless they can make major strides during the spring and summer.
Their first eight FBS opponents played in bowls last season, while FCS foe Eastern Kentucky was a playoff team.
The offense and defense have nice pieces to build from, but there are also plenty of holes that make doing anything more than getting to .500 seem difficult. Kentucky is in the process of getting better across the board, so it will need players like running back Boom Williams and linebacker Josh Forrest to have career years.
Odds: 40-1
Florida
3 of 14
There's a fair amount of optimism that Jim McElwain's offensive acumen will help Florida become more of a complete team than it was under Will Muschamp the last two years. That isn't necessarily going to translate into an immediate jump from middling to contending, though.
The Gators have a relatively thin cupboard of returners to work with, starting with an offensive line that needs to be completely retooled to protect holdover Treon Harris or redshirt freshman Will Grier at quarterback. There are good receivers to work with, but the offense has some work to do before it can be considered a force.
Florida's defense, its strength under Muschamp, should be strong again, particularly in its secondary. However, the front seven will depend on a number of untested players and could feature a handful of the prospects that McElwain and his staff were able to bring in late in the recruiting process.
That can translate into an exciting, youthful team or one that will have plenty of growing pains.
A relatively manageable schedule features a handful of rough patches, most notably the three-week stretch in October that begins with a visit from Ole Miss and then takes Florida to Missouri and LSU. After a bye, the Gators then face Georgia in Jacksonville.
Odds: 20-1
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Ole Miss
4 of 14
Ole Miss brings back almost its entire offense, but that group wasn't particularly explosive in 2014. Its most exciting player, quarterback Bo Wallace, has moved on, leaving the job potentially in the hands of former Clemson passer Chad Kelly.
Considering Kelly was booted off Clemson and then—after starring in junior college—had a legal run-in while spending December in his native Buffalo, this is a risky scenario for the Rebels.
"I sure hope and pray like heck that he doesn't embarrass our team, university and myself, but that is a possibility," Ole Miss coach High Freeze told Hugh Kellenberger of The Clarion-Ledger.
More than anything, though, Ole Miss' hopes in 2015 rest on being able to again rely on the conference's most effective defense. The "Landsharks" led the nation in points allowed at 16 per game, but four notable starters have graduated.
There's still an imposing defensive line to work with, and after showing much promise during his first two years, it will be time for Robert Nkemdiche to become a dominant force as a junior.
Whatever Ole Miss accomplishes this season, it will be determined by how it fares on the road. All five games outside of Oxford, including Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State and Memphis, are tough ones.
Odds: 20-1
South Carolina
5 of 14
The Head Ball Coach is coming off possibly his most disappointing and frustrating season of his long career, but Steve Spurrier heads into 2015 with renewed excitement about getting South Carolina back to the level he had it from 2011 to 2013.
For that to happen, the Gamecocks need across-the-board improvement, both in terms of performance and drive. Last year the offense was strong but not always consistent, while the defense repeatedly failed to put forth the effort necessary to compete.
South Carolina's offense will be going through a redo, as Spurrier goes into the offseason with uncertainty at the quarterback position for the first time in years. The graduated Dylan Thompson ended a long stretch of always having someone with valuable experience to fall back on, but at least the Gamecocks have versatile receiver Pharoh Cooper to turn to in as many ways as possible.
The Gamecocks defense needs to show the most improvement, particular up front, which was a major emphasis on the recruiting trail.
South Carolina also has to deal with a tougher-than-it-seems schedule. Three of its four nonconference games are against bowl teams from a year ago, which is downright un-SEC-like, compared to others teams in the league. The Gamecocks' conference slate sends them to Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas A&M.
Odds: 20-1
Mississippi State
6 of 14
Dak is back, but one player won't get Mississippi State into the playoffs.
The return of quarterback Dak Prescott for his senior year gives the Bulldogs a leg up on most other teams in the SEC at that position, and his mobility is second-to-none in the conference. Yet Prescott is mostly going at it alone on offense, as the departure of running back Josh Robinson will be tough to overcome.
That one-two combination was a huge reason MSU was able to get off to a 9-0 start and move to No. 1 in the nation last season, so to expect the Bulldogs to fare as well (or better) with only half of that tandem is overly ambitious.
MSU also has to replace seven starters on defense, losing at least two players apiece from the defensive line, linebackers and secondary. This puts new coordinator Manny Diaz behind the curve at the outset.
The schedule is almost a complete opposite of last year in terms of being able to build momentum. The conference games start early and are difficult from the beginning, and the swap of Vanderbilt for two-time East Division champ Missouri as a crossover game doesn't help.
Odds: 18-1
Arkansas
7 of 14
It took two seasons, but Bret Bielema has turned Arkansas into the kind of program he envisioned when he jumped from Wisconsin following the 2012 season. After breaking through and winning seven games last year, the Razorbacks are among the trendy picks to make even more strides in 2015.
But enough to make it to the playoffs? That might be a little too ambitious.
Yes, Arkansas brings back the vast majority of its offense, including four-fifths of its NFL-sized offensive line as well as a pair of 1,000-yard running backs (Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams) and quarterback Brandon Allen. That group got better and more balanced as the year went on and enabled Arkansas' defense to develop knowing that the other side would control tempo and clock.
"There's no reason for fans not to expect an improvement on offense next year," wrote Doc Harper of SB Nation.
The Hogs defense became dominant down the stretch in 2014, posting back-to-back shutouts against ranked opponents and then holding Texas to a mere 59 yards in the Texas Bowl. That unit is going to have more trouble getting off to that same start, as several key players have graduated or turned pro early.
A tough midseason stretch that sees Arkansas play back-to-back road games at Tennessee and Alabama, followed after a bye with a visit from Auburn, will be where this team makes its mark or hits its limit.
Odds: 15-1
Tennessee
8 of 14
All aboard the Tennessee hype train, where unrealistic expectations are optional but wearing orange is not.
The Volunteers' seven wins last year were their most since 2009, and now this rising program is suddenly getting looked at as one of the handful of dark-horse teams to soar into the semifinals this upcoming season. And while the talent is there, the experience is not, as most of their key contributors will be sophomores or juniors and haven't truly been in the spotlight yet.
The player who will ultimately dictate how far Tennessee goes in 2015 is Joshua Dobbs, the quarterback who was inserted into the lineup during the eighth game of the season and then led the Volunteers to a 4-1 finish as a starter. Mark Wiedmer of the Chattanooga Times-Free Press equated his work to what Peyton Manning did for the Vols in 1994-95, while he also compared Dobbs to Tee Martin and how he paced the 1998 national championship.
"He runs like a tailback, his passing is underrated, and it's hard to see anyone getting the better of him between the ears," Wiedmer wrote.
Dobbs has great young weapons to work with, though how his still-learning offensive line develops in front of him will factor in greatly.
Tennessee's defense should also show growth, building off the youthful experience gained in 2014. Yet in order for the Vols to make any noise, they'll need to figure out a way to end long losing skids to the likes of Alabama, Florida and Georgia. They have to visit the first two on that list.
Odds: 15-1
Missouri
9 of 14
Two-time-defending East Division champion Missouri figures to face diminished expectations, just like it did prior to last season. We saw how that worked out for the rest of the East, as the Tigers plowed through everyone but Georgia to take the crown.
The Tigers can make it a divisional three-peat, but to do that they'll need the quarterback spot to have much better production. Maty Mauk massively underachieved in 2014, and the arrival of highly touted recruit Drew Lock could put his job at risk. If a change happens before the season, it would work out better, because if it happens after games have already been played, it will be a sign that the year isn't going well.
Yet even with struggles, Mizzou's schedule sets up nicely for at least a 6-0 start, but the same seemed possible last year only to see it fall to Indiana at home.
The Tigers' strength from last season, their defense, figures to get to that point again but will require another retooling with the loss of impact defensive ends Markus Golden and Shane Ray, as well as safety Braylon Webb.
Odds: 15-1
LSU
10 of 14
This past season was the third straight year of the Tigers trending downward. There will be an uptick in 2015, but probably not enough for LSU to be a serious playoff contender unless the offense can make progress.
First, the team has to decide on a quarterback. Brandon Harris seems like the better long-term answer, but he didn't get many chances last year over unimpressive Anthony Jennings. Their battle will continue this offseason, and it's the single most important development that has to happen for the Tigers to have success.
"This will be a very competitive spring," LSU coach Les Miles told Ross Dellenger of The Advocate. "Out of spring, I'd like to pick another starter."
Get that situation taken care of, and the Tigers' impressive young skill players will do the rest. Leonard Fournette was a beast in the backfield late last year and should only get better as he matures and grows stronger. Further, LSU's receivers are among the best in the country.
New defensive coordinator Kevin Steele has some work to do to get that unit back to its lofty standards, but the talent is there. So, too, is a schedule that has no back-to-back road games and beyond the trips to Alabama and Ole Miss in November doesn't appear too daunting.
Odds: 12-1
Texas A&M
11 of 14
Texas A&M had one of the most roller coaster-level seasons in recent memory in 2014, going from unheralded in the preseason to a juggernaut within one game...then crashing and burning in the middle only to rise up toward the end and finish strong.
And with the Aggies bringing back the vast majority of their key players, including nearly every significant offensive player and a bevy of the-best-is-yet-to-come defenders, it's hard not to think this could be their year.
This assumes quarterback Kyle Allen continues the progress he made after taking over as starter for Kenny Hill in October, and that defensive stars like Myles Garrett and Armani Watts take that next step. A&M loaded up on defensive players on the recruiting trail, highlighted by 5-star tackle Daylon Mack, and if he can pair up with Garrett on the line to become the league's best one-two combo up front, the sky is the limit.
A&M also has a high-profile schedule that is the kind a playoff team would put together. This starts with a good opener against Arizona State in Houston and continues with bringing Alabama and Auburn to College Station.
Of all the second-level teams in the SEC from last season, A&M seems most ready to leap up to the top tier.
Odds: 10-1
Auburn
12 of 14
From being seconds away from winning a title to disappointing across the board, Auburn had the steepest drop of any SEC team from 2013 to 2014. But the area where the Tigers struggled last season—on defense—is where we should see the most improvement.
It all starts on the sideline, where Auburn has turned to former Florida coach Will Muschamp to overhaul the defense and turn it into a group that can hold its own against the rapidly evolving offenses in this conference. Muschamp's arrival also helped haul in several major defensive recruits earlier this month, topped by 5-star defensive end Byron Cowart.
Even the slightest improvement should make a difference, as Auburn's losses were the result of the defense being unable to make key stops, which negated the Tigers' offensive production.
"It's our job to get off the field on defense, and it's our job to get the ball back to the offense," Muschamp told Brandon Marcello of AL.com shortly after being hired in December. "That's what we plan on doing."
Offense will continue to be the team's strong suit, even with many new role players. Jeremy Johnson figures to turn the quarterback position into one that's more air-oriented, while younger running backs will be tasked with keeping Auburn's ground game in peak form.
Auburn's playoff fate will come down to how it navigates a treacherous November schedule. The Tigers host Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama in the second half of the season.
Odds: 10-1
Georgia
13 of 14
This is Georgia's year to get it done. Then again, so was 2014, and the season before that.
The Bulldogs figure to be among the favorites in the SEC East based on their talent and the makeup of the other teams, but as we saw in the previous two years, that hasn't automatically translated into results. Confounding losses at the worst times have derailed their high hopes, and it stands to reason that is the only thing stopping them from making a deep run in 2015.
That, and the quarterback position.
Hutson Mason managed the position well enough last year, doing what was asked of him by coach Mark Richt and outgoing offensive coordinator Mike Bobo. New coordinator Brian Schottenheimer comes in with a solid NFL background working with passers, and he'll be choosing from the likes of sophomore Brice Ramsey, junior Faton Bauta and redshirt freshman Jacob Park.
"If Georgia has three guys still in the mix in late August, it will be an indictment, not a compliment," Bleacher Report's Andrew Hall wrote.
Georgia could easily just hand the ball off over and over again to Nick Chubb, who showed his ability to be a prolific workhorse when he took over the starting job midway through his freshman year. But in order to keep defenses honest, the Bulldogs have to be balanced.
The defense should continue to improve, building off the rise we saw in 2014 as Jeremy Pruitt implemented his approach. A defense-heavy recruiting class can bring in some potential instant contributors, too.
And the schedule does the team plenty of favors, as there are only a few stretches of prolonged quality competition. If the Bulldogs can avoid catching the hiccups again, they'll be battling for a playoff spot in December when representing the East Division in the SEC title game.
Odds: 8-1
Alabama
14 of 14
The Crimson Tide were the SEC representatives in last season's playoffs, falling to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. And though they lost several significant contributors on both sides of the ball, similar losses in the past haven't made this an issue.
Remember, Alabama has been in the top four of whatever ranking system has been in place at the end of the past four regular seasons, and each of those teams has had to replace major pieces from the year before.
The transition from three-year starter AJ McCarron to first-timer Blake Sims went off without a hitch in 2014 thanks to the work done by offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. He figures to perform similar magic with Jake Coker or whomever ends up being Alabama's quarterback.
The loss of running back T.J. Yeldon is offset by the return of Derrick Henry, who outgained Yeldon despite being the No. 2 back. Attrition on the offensive line as well as the gaping hole in production left from Amari Cooper's early NFL departure will be more difficult to fix.
On defense, Alabama figures to be better in 2015 than last year with reinforcements coming from another No. 1 recruiting class.
The schedule is as daunting as ever, with a solid neutral-site opener against Wisconsin and then the conference gauntlet that features trips to Georgia, Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn. However, Alabama has shown the ability to play nearly as well on the road as at home, so the location of the games shouldn't matter.
Odds: 5-1
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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