Revisiting 10 Miami Dolphins Predictions from the Preseason
Accountability is a tricky thing. What is accountability in football? If you ask the Seattle Seahawks, it's bludgeoning one self with all the blame for the play call and subsequent interception at the 1-yard line in Super Bowl XLIX.
What is accountability in writing about football? In my mind, it's going back to previous statements that were made and owning up to their accuracy—or lack thereof.
I made a list of 10 Miami Dolphins predictions ahead of the 2014 season, and looking back on them now is an exercise in hilarity. I'll have to try better next time. For now, have a laugh at my expense, why don't you? Here's a look back at those predictions.
Ryan Tannehill Will Throw at Least 30 Touchdown Passes: Wrong
1 of 10
What I Said
"From Year 1 to Year 2, Ryan Tannehill doubled his total touchdown passes from 12 to 24. The Dolphins added some notable pass-catching talent to their arsenal last offseason in the form of Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson, but they've added even more this offseason with their selection of Jarvis Landry in the second round.
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What Happened
Like most of my predictions, I wasn't too far off here. With three more passing touchdowns, Tannehill would have made me look like a very smart man. Heck, with three more passing touchdowns at the right time, the Dolphins could have gone from 8-8 to 11-5. Unfortunately, that was not the case.
As Tannehill continues to take steps forward in his development, the Dolphins look like they have an opportunity to become one of the more deadly offenses in the NFL. They went from the 26th-ranked scoring offense to the 11th-ranked scoring offense. They have a diverse group of skill position players, although they need to add at least one big-bodied red-zone threat to their arsenal.
Cameron Wake Will Log 12 or More Sacks: Wrong
2 of 10
What I Said
"Since entering the NFL, Cameron Wake has alternated seasons with 10 or more sacks—he missed the mark his first year, hit it his second, missed it his third and so forth. Wake enters his sixth year in the league, and the trend seems to point to him reaching double digits.
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What Happened
Wake did indeed hit double-digit sacks, but fell exactly a half-sack short of hitting the 12-sack prediction.
Wake failed to notch a sack in eight of the 16 games he played this year, but according to Pro Football Focus, Wake was the league's second-best pass-rusher on a per-snap basis. He notched 65 pressures on 457 pass-rush attempts.
The strength of the Dolphins defense is their defensive line, and they will surely be putting the pinch on opposing quarterbacks as long as Wake is leading the charge.
Ryan Tannehill Will Be Sacked Fewer Than 40 Times: Wrong
3 of 10
What I Said
"Tannehill did a great job of getting the ball out quickly in 2013 with one of the 10-lowest averages for time in the pocket, according to Pro Football Focus. The Dolphins offensive line needs to return the favor, though, instead of allowing him to be sacked within 3.8 seconds on average (seventh-quickest in the NFL).
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What Happened
The Dolphins offensive line was supposed to be much improved in 2014, but Tannehill was still sacked 46 times, which was the third-most in the NFL. As a team, the Dolphins allowed a sack on 7.2 percent of their quarterback's pass plays, the 11th-highest sack rate in the NFL.
The most concerning part of this is that the Dolphins offense was built around the short passing game in 2014, meaning the sack numbers should have gone way down. Tannehill's average time of 2.61 seconds in the pocket was the 13th-lowest of 39 qualifying quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Dolphins offensive line will have to step its game up if the offense is going to realize its full potential in 2015 and beyond.
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Charles Clay Will Catch at Least 10 Touchdown Passes: Wrong
4 of 10
What I Said
"Bill Lazor could look to get Clay involved even more often this year. Eagles tight ends Brent Celek and Zach Ertz combined for 68 receptions and 10 touchdowns last year, but since Clay is head and shoulders above the other tight ends on the Dolphins roster, he won't have to worry about splitting the receptions or red-zone looks with anyone.
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What Happened
"What happened," indeed?
Clay tied for the team lead in red-zone targets with 20, but managed to haul in only eight of those passes for two scores.
The matchup nightmare went from zero to hero in the Dolphins offense in 2013, breaking out with 69 receptions for 759 yards and six touchdowns. His numbers went down across the board, with 11 fewer receptions for 154 fewer yards and half as many touchdowns as the year before.
After making his first appearance on the NFL Network Top 100 Players list last year, the 2014 season was supposed to be the year for Clay to become a household name. It appears he has a little way to go before he steps into that territory.
Mike Wallace Will Lead the Team in Receptions: Wrong
5 of 10
What I Said
"Lazor's offense should mean big things for Wallace. Former offensive coordinator Mike Sherman didn't do enough to get Wallace some separation and allow him to use his elite speed. In Lazor's offense, Wallace will be moving around a bit and will get separation through pre-snap motion and other means.
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What Happened
This actually felt like a safe prediction at the time. When looking for insight this preseason on the type of offense Bill Lazor might run, one might have found the Philadelphia Eagles' stat sheet to be an interesting tool.
In 2013, wide receiver DeSean Jackson led the Eagles in receptions and in targets by a wide margin—30 receptions, 42 targets. Jackson occupied a similar role in the Eagles offense that Wallace occupies in the Dolphins offense, and the two receivers share a similar skill set of explosive speed and open-field running ability. The Dolphins made use of Wallace's skill set, but much to his chagrin, they did not target him as often on vertical passes.
Wallace finished second on the team in receptions behind rookie Jarvis Landry, and now the dynamic receiver could be on his way out of Miami, with even Dolphins owner Stephen Ross admitting some doubt as to Wallace's future with the team.
The Dolphins Defense Will Rank in the Top 10 in Scoring: Wrong
6 of 10
What I Said
"The majority of the Dolphins defense is returning to the fold in 2014, with a couple of upgrades thrown into the mix as well. Their defensive line is still one of the best in football, and their secondary has some depth. The only question mark is at linebacker, where Philip Wheeler and Dannell Ellerbe need to improve against the run after struggling last season.
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What Happened
Not even close. This one surprised me, considering I thought it was one of my safer predictions at the time.
The Dolphins ran into some buzzsaws this year, yielding 34 points or more to five of their opponents and 27 points or more to another three opponents. Their average of 23 points per game allowed ranked 20th in the NFL.
Unless the Dolphins offense grows a jet pack and finds a way to consistently score 30-plus points, the defense is going to have to live up to the hype they had built for themselves in previous years.
Knowshon Moreno Will Have More Than 1,200 Total Yards of Offense: Wrong
7 of 10
What I Said
"The Dolphins were notably absent a solid option in the backfield on passing downs; Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller both struggled in pass protection, and neither provided game-breaking plays when he got the ball in his hands in the open field. Moreno excels in both areas and could be a big part of their third-down offensive packages.
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What Happened
An early-season injury to Knowshon Moreno forced the running back out of action following Week 6, and his season numbers finished at only 156 yards from scrimmage. A huge Week 1 performance saw Moreno bust out against the New England Patriots for 134 rushing yards, and on that kind of pace, he could have rushed for 1,000 yards by Week 8.
The Dolphins signed Moreno to a one-year deal before the 2014 season, and he will probably get the same treatment on the open market now that he is set to be a free agent once again coming off the season-ending injury.
Contract Extension for Charles Clay: Wrong
8 of 10
What I Said
"With another solid year of production, Clay could expect a contract that pays him in the neighborhood of $7 or $8 million per year. The Dolphins do not have a bevy of cap space at the moment and would be roughly $2 million over next year's estimated salary cap. There may be some tricky waters to navigate in terms of how to make it work, but the Dolphins should start having these conversations sooner rather than later.
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What Happened
Even despite Clay's 2013 emergence into a standout tight end in the Dolphins offense, this was a lofty prediction to make. The Dolphins just changed general managers, parting ways with Jeff Ireland and hiring Dennis Hickey to lead the organization's personnel operations.
Now, Clay is set to hit the open market when the league year ends in March, and the Dolphins have between now and then to come to terms with their tight end or go on the market to look for another one.
The Dolphins Will Have 1 of the 5-Fastest Offenses in the NFL: Wrong
9 of 10
What I Said
"In 2013, the Dolphins offense ranked near the top 10 in almost all of Football Outsiders' "pace stats" that measure how much downtime elapsed between each play. By contrast, the Philadelphia Eagles were No. 1 in five categories and No. 4 in the other two. Lazor's experience with the Eagles could rub off on the Dolphins in that area.
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What Happened
Instead of a hurry-up offense, the Dolphins ran more of a hurry-up-and-wait offense. They finished 11th in seconds per play at 26.95. They may have been able to keep a higher pace if their third-down conversion percentage had been better than mediocre, ranking 15th in the NFL at 40 percent.
Therein lies the peril of a fast-paced, hurry-up offense. If an offense doesn't convert third downs to keep drives alive, the defense rushes back onto the field before they have a moment to catch their breath. The whole team needs to work in unison to make a hurry-up offense effective.
Final Record: 9-7: Wrong
10 of 10
What I Said
"If this prediction holds, the Dolphins will have won one more game in each year under Philbin than they did the year prior.
In a weak AFC, a 9-7 record could be good enough to get the team into the postseason, but it will be close. The San Diego Chargers made the playoffs with a 9-7 record last season, so it can be done.
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What Happened
Once again, the Miami Dolphins had control of their own playoff destiny, and once again, their destiny was doomed by their own hand. Head coach Joe Philbin is now 0-for-3 as a head coach in getting his team to the playoffs, or even in getting them above .500.
The 2015 season must be make-or-break year for Philbin as the Dolphins head coach. The Dolphins have been a .500 or worse team for his entire tenure.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. If the Dolphins continue to employ Philbin through mediocre season after mediocre season, they have no one to blame but themselves for their continued lack of success.
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