Padres Sneaking Up as Sudden Strong Contenders to Land James Shields

The James Shields saga—a voluminous tome that would give War and Peace a run for its money—is at long last nearing a conclusion. And the final chapter might feature a surprise twist in the form of the San Diego Padres.

On Wednesday we got word from Fox Sports' Jon Morosi that a Shields deal was imminent:

Bob Nightengale of USA Today added a wrinkle: Shields "has a strong preference" to play on the West Coast in the vicinity of his San Diego home.

Then came a report from CBS Sports' Jon Heyman that the San Francisco Giants were out of the running and another in which Heyman said there's "no evidence" the Los Angeles Angels are a player.

The Los Angeles Dodgers always have cash to burn, and they fit the location bill. But L.A. has already inked starters Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, and President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman appears reluctant to shell out for expensive veterans.  

That brings us to the most on-the-nose destination for a guy who wants to pitch near San Diego: San Diego itself. 

The Padres have lingered around the fringes of the Shields sweepstakes; on Jan. 22 yours truly put the odds of San Diego landing the 33-year-old right-hander at 10-1.

Now, it's worth wondering if those odds have ticked upward.

The price tag is a concern. Although at this point, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal says a four-year contract is more realistic than the five years Shields was originally seeking. And, Rosenthal adds, "it would be a surprise" if Big Game James gets $20 million per year.

Here's something we know: The normally spendthrift Padres and their new general manager, A.J. Preller, are on a tear this winter, overhauling the outfield with trades for Matt Kemp, Wil Meyers and Justin Upton and upgrading an offense that finished dead last in MLB in batting average and runs scored in 2014.

"They've been aggressive,'' the Dodgers' Friedman told Nightengale. "When A.J. got hired, I think the expectation was they would get aggressive. And they have."

Now, Heyman reports the Padres are hot on the trail of a front-line starter and are "one of only a few teams believed to still be in contact with Shields." 

The Padres could have some financial flexibility too. They'll get $18 million from the Dodgers this year, Heyman notes, part of the $107 million Los Angeles is sending south in the Kemp deal.

That means San Diego will pay Kemp only $3 million in 2015—and there might be wiggle room to add a top-tier hurler.

Shields is the only remaining free agent who matches that description. But the Padres also possess a deep farm system and could swing a deal for an ace-level arm like the Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels or one of the Washington Nationals' trio of (theoretically available) studs: Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg.

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Even if a swap isn't consummated by Opening Day, there's always the trade deadline.

Still, slotting Shields into the rotation next to budding stars Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner would propel the Padres closer to contention. 

The Dodgers are the clear favorites in the National League West, but the world champion Giants have lost punch with the departures of Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse.

A Shields deal would push the Pads into the thick of the postseason picture and put a punctuation mark on an offseason that's given Friars fans license to dream big.

Will it happen? We'll know in short order. While we've mostly heard about who isn't in, MLB Trade Rumors documented the reports of other potential suitors remain, including the Miami Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays, who I tabbed as the favorites back in January.

No matter what, the Shields saga is ending—and it could be the Padres who close the book.