Surprise Max-Contract Candidates for 2015 NBA Free Agency
Surprise!
Contract-year NBA players are always fascinating. They're playing for both now and later, trying to secure a raise or prolong their careers. Some free agents-to-be are open-and-shut cases. We know the kind of deal they'll get.
This is especially true of max-contract candidates. We know Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge will get max deals this summer. If players weren't worth max contracts following their rookie-scale pacts, or if they didn't immediately land max contracts during those extension negotiations, it's usually not going to happen. Not now, not ever.
These contract-year players are an exception. Their play has been so good, they have entered the max-contract debate—a conversation they didn't crack previously. They've either never landed a max deal before or failed to secure one in their most recent negotiations.
Midway through the 2014-15 regular season, everything has changed. Through some combination of gaudy stat lines, market movement and, yes, the impending cap boom, certain players are inserting themselves into max-contract territory for the first time.
When free agency rolls around in July, they may or may not nab those max deals. But the outcome of future events matters little here.
Whatever happens later is ancillary. Right here, right now, these players are unexpectedly joining the hunt for contracts that would put them in the company of superstars.
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
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Kawhi Leonard's max-contract candidacy won't seem super surprising to some. The 23-year-old laid the groundwork for his upcoming payday in October, asking for a max extension, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Eyes widened when the San Antonio Spurs failed to reach an agreement with their bridge into the post-Big Three era. Yet even after failing to reach a new deal, Leonard's return to San Antonio remains a formality. Delaying his extension merely ensures the Spurs of ultimate financial pliability this summer.
Tim Duncan's and Manu Ginobili's contracts come off the books after this season, and both could retire. Danny Green and Marco Belinelli are slated for free agency as well. Rumors have also linked the Spurs to top-tier free agents like Gasol and Aldridge, per the New York Daily News' Frank Isola and Grantland's Zach Lowe.
Pursuing stars will take cap space—and perhaps a Tiago Splitter trade—the Spurs only have because they put off Leonard's next contract. So, no, the absence of an extension did not portend a relationship-razing.
Still, the Spurs and max contracts go together like cereal and paint thinner. Their in-house culture has long been prided on collective sacrifice both on the court and in the fine print. Deeming Leonard an inevitable max-contract recipient is dicey considering the team's penchant for brokering below-market deals.
Playing fourth fiddle to Tony Parker, Duncan and Ginobili hasn't helped, either. Leonard's value has been obfuscated by the Hall of Fame company he keeps. Until now.
Never before has Leonard's worth to this team been more clear. Career-high averages of 15.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.0 steals per game are spectacular, but his numbers are accompanied by additional minutes and a soaring usage rate. It's the profound impact he's having that stands out most:
| With Leonard | 70 | 105.4 | 9 | 96.0 | 1 | 9.4 | 2 |
| Without Leonard | 50 | 102.5 | 17 | 102.5 | 13 | 0.0 | 17 |
Put in layman's terms, the Spurs are a championship contender with Leonard on the floor. Without him, they're not even a playoff team. And, to that end, if his max-contract candidacy was in doubt before, it isn't anymore.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
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Jimmy Butler was tracking toward a serious raise before his breakout 2014-15 campaign. He turned down a four-year, $40 million extension, according to the Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley, and watched as fellow shooting guard Klay Thompson raked in $70(ish) million from the Golden State Warriors.
Max money felt like a stretch, though. Butler improved every year, but he never held the appeal of someone who could carry an entire team on his own. That's what max-contract superstars do.
And that's what Butler is now doing.
The Chicago Bulls have been a drama-draped mess at times this season. Injuries have prevented Joakim Noah from playing like Joakim Noah, their defense is unimpressive, Derrick Rose is only just rounding into form, head coach Tom Thibodeau's future appears to once again be up in the air and the Bulls have underachieved as a whole.
None of that has to do with Butler. He's one of the few reasons the Bulls haven't dropped lower than fourth in the wide-open Eastern Conference. Though he just wrapped up an unflattering January, during which he shot 41.7 percent from the floor, he's basically posting career highs across the board.
Only one other player is averaging at least 20.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.5 steals per game: DeMarcus Cousins. Butler also ranks fifth in win shares, behind only Chris Paul, Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis and James Harden—all superstars.
There's really no case against his max-contract viability. Butler is an All-Star and a two-way talent who plays a barren position. Not even the typically tight-lipped, notoriously stingy Bulls are shirking reality at this point.
Vice president John Paxson already confirmed on ESPN 1000's Waddle & Silvy that the Bulls will match any offer Butler fields in restricted free agency, per ESPN Chicago's Nick Friedell. Even if it's a max offer?
Even if it's a max offer.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
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Draymond Green's max-contract movement is officially underway.
"I really think he's going to be a max player," ESPN NBA analyst Jeff Van Gundy said of Green, per ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "How many guys defend, rebound, pass and make threes? That combination, you just don't see."
Per-game averages of 11.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks on 43.4 percent shooting don't normally incite max-contract chatter. But Green's situation is unique and therefore interesting.
A smattering of various factors will come into play when Green's market value is set in restricted free agency:
- Green can defend all five positions.
- Green is the only player averaging at least 11.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, one steal and one block per game.
- If the Warriors exercise Marreese Speights' 2015-16 team option (likely), they'll find themselves right at the projected luxury-tax threshold ($81 million, according to Larry Coon's CBA FAQ blog) before re-signing Green. Rival teams may dangle max money in front of Green hoping to either steal him or force the Warriors into dismantling their pricey substructure.
Oh, and then there's the fact Green, in a vacuum, may actually be worth a max deal, knowing the salary cap is expected to erupt in 2016.
As Golden State of Mind's Jared Stearne writes:
"We can’t just say $16 million per year is too much—as a four year contract, we have to consider the entire deal’s value, as well as the dramatically different context for the latter three years of the deal. In 2015, paying Draymond Green 20% of the salary cap sounds very bad. But if you can keep this entire roster together through 2017 (and contend and possibly improve each of those years), paying a premium at one position suddenly becomes a small price to pay.
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If nothing else, we need to appreciate that this is an actual discussion. Green wasn't sniffing the max-contract club ahead of this season. Yours truly didn't even rank him inside the top 15 free agents this past November.
But he's certainly there now, within the top 15, inside the top 10, firmly hitched to the max-contract confab he was never supposed to be part of.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
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Keeping DeAndre Jordan is going to cost the Los Angeles Clippers.
It wasn't long ago the four-year, $44 million contract he signed to remain in Los Angeles was viewed as an overpay. The Clippers were gambling on him, rolling the dice on a raw offensive player, paying him for feats not yet accomplished.
That gambit has paid huge dividends—for both the Clippers and Jordan himself. The former now employs a perennial Defensive Player of the Year contender who doesn't need to be benched in tightly contested fourth quarters, and the latter is playing his way toward a max contract this summer.
Jordan is averaging at least 10.0 points, 13.0 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game for the second consecutive season. The only other active player to register such benchmarks more than once is Dwight Howard.
Moreover, Jordan has racked up more win shares (7.2) than Blake Griffin (6.5). While there's no such thing as an end-all metric, this is just absurd. Jordan has become a two-way force. The Clippers offense is worlds better with him on the floor, and the team's net rating plummets by 12.8 points per 100 possessions when he steps off.
Strapped for cash and faced with the prospect of otherwise losing him, the Clippers may have no choice but to throw max money his way. Bleacher Report's Fred Katz explains further:
"A max contract in 2015 is going to be worth far less than one doled out once the cap explodes. Because of that, retaining Jordan this summer (even if it's for a max deal) would actually be the cheaper option than chasing a top-of-the-line guy the following offseason.
The Clips could conceivably let D.J. walk, use Hawes or someone else as a temporary, one-year replacement and try to fight it out for a playoff spot in next year's West before chasing after one of the big-name 2016 free agents, but exactly how smart would that be?
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Big men are traditionally handed larger-than-life contracts for their size alone. Combining that size with measurable skill makes for expensive and, most importantly, expansive competition.
Translation: If the Clippers don't offer the rising Jordan max money, another team will.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
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Paul Millsap is the case study of all case studies.
Pushing 30, he's not your usual max-contract suspect. Not after flying under the radar for the better part of a decade.
Two All-Star selections later, Millsap is finally starting to receive his due. He's a serviceable defender, has expanded his offensive arsenal to include three-pointers and he's one of just two players (Cousins) averaging at least 17 points, eight rebounds, three assists and one steal per game. He also leads the league-lording Atlanta Hawks in win shares.
Millsap even has a 28-point performance that came on just nine shots to his name. The only other player to do the same over the last five years is Howard. That game in particular encapsulates all he does—put up demonstrative numbers in efficient fashion.
“I really didn’t know Paul could do this much," Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer said, per The Atlanta Journal Constitution's Mark Bradley.
Well, he can. And he's going to be paid accordingly.
Doling out max contracts to players on the wrong side of 30 admittedly isn't easy. Perception changes once athletes pass that plateau. They're considered old, perhaps still in their prime, but speeding toward decline. Only the super-est of superstars remain max-contract locks at that age.
Having never been considered a max-contract possibility before now, Millsap could inevitably accept less, be it out of necessity (market value) or preference (to stay in Atlanta). Regardless of where he signs and how much he signs for, though, Millsap has already proved he's elite. He can play within a passing-packed, team-oriented system and thrive.
Whether that nets him max money this summer doesn't matter. Millsap is a star, and until the free-agent market determines otherwise, he is in the max-contract discussion.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Feb. 1, 2015, unless otherwise cited. Salary information collected from HoopsHype.
