San Francisco 49ers: Updating the Post-Senior Bowl 2015 NFL Draft Big Board

We last took a look at a potential San Francisco 49ers NFL draft big board at the beginning of December, but a lot of things have changed in the past two months.  It’s as good a time as any to re-look at the top players in the draft and try to rank them according to San Francisco’s specific needs.

Obviously, the biggest change that has taken place since the beginning of December has been the gutting of the coaching staff.  Jim Harbaugh is out, and Jim Tomsula is in.  That’s not going to have a huge effect on the team’s philosophy, because general manager Trent Baalke retains control of the 53-man roster, but it should have some effect.

We don’t know who the offensive coordinator will be, but it looks like Eric Mangini will get the defensive coordinator role, as reported by ESPN. 

Mangini and Tomsula give the 49ers at least a bit of a defensive identity that allows us to shuffle players around on the wish list. The 49ers might move to a 4-3 defense, as indicated by David Fucillo of Niners Nation, so that further clarifies San Francisco’s needs on that side of the ball.

Since the previous list, the team has also released Ray McDonald.  When we last looked at San Francisco’s needs, three of the top 10 players were defensive ends.  With McDonald’s release, Justin Smith's possible retirement and the defensive line coach's promotion to head coach, all defensive ends will see their stock rise a bit.

We’ve also had all of the bowl games, including the national title game and the Senior Bowl, take place, which further altered players’ stocks.  Some players have unexpectedly declared for the draft, and some, such as Georgia linebacker Leonard Floyd, have unexpectedly opted to stay in school.  That shuffles the order as well.

Finally, we’ve learned the 49ers' actual draft spot—they’ll draft 15th in the first round, and 14th in the second.  Because they’re actually in the first half of the draft order, I’ll expand the big board from 32 names to 46, to cover both of their first two picks.  In theory, then, the 49ers should end up with at least two people off this list.

As a reminder, first we’ll look at the overall big board—in theory, they are ranked in the order that San Francisco would pick them if they were all available at their draft pick.  Then, we’ll go position-by-position to see which players might fall to their range, which they might have to trade up for and which seem out of the question.

Big Board

Associated Press

USC's Leonard Williams

When we did this exercise at the beginning of December, Alabama’s Amari Cooper was the top name.  He’s as good as ever, but Ray McDonald's release has bumped up Leonard Williams to the point where I believe he’d be the pick, if everyone's available.

1. Leonard Williams, DL, USC (Last time: 2)
2. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama (Last time: 1)
3. Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri (Last time: 7)
4. Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska (Last time: 5)
5. Devante Parker, WR, Louisville (Last time: 3)
6. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia (Last time: 4)
7. Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan (Last time: 6)
8. Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB, Florida (Last time: 15)
9. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State (Last time: 17)
10. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State (Last time: NR)
11. Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson (Last time: 20)
12. Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State (Last time: 8)
13. Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon (Last time: NR)
14. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon (Last time: 11)
15. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma (Last time: NR)
16. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota (Last time: NR)
17. Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn (Last time: NR)
18. A.J. Cann, OG, South Carolina (Last time: 13)
19. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington (Last time: 19)
20. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State (Last time: 20)
21. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington (Last time: 9)
22. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa (Last time: 26)
23. Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas (Last time: 31)
24. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest (Last time: NR)
25. Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington (Last time: 23)
26. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin (Last time: NR)
27. Jordan Philips, DT, Oklahoma (Last time: NR)
28. Landon Collins, S, Alabama (Last time: 21)
29. Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford (Last time: 12)
30. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State (Last time: 14)
31. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (FL) (Last time: NR)
32. Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State (Last time: 18)
33. Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State (Last time: 28)
34. Bud Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky (Last time: NR)
35. Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia (Last time: NR)
36. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh (Last time: 32)
37. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC (Last time: 22)
38. Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M (Last time: 24)
39. Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/OLB, Louisville (Last time: NR)
40. Malcom Brown, DT, Texas (Last time:  NR)
41. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford (Last time: NR)
42. La’el Collins, OT, LSU (Last time: 30)
43. Tevin Coleman, RB, Indiana (Last time: NR)
44. Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami (FL) (Last time: NR)
45. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon (Last time: 16)
46. Duke Johnson, RB, Miami (FL) (Last time: NR)

Dropped out: Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia; Austin Hill, WR, Arizona; Mike Bennett, DT, Ohio State

Quarterbacks

Associated Press

Florida State's Jameis Winston

9. Jameis Winston, Florida State
14. Marcus Mariota, Oregon

Neither Winston nor Mariota are going to be dropping to the 49ers’ first pick.  They will likely be the first two players taken off the board, by Tampa Bay and Tennessee.

If one of them slid, he still wouldn’t get past the New York Jets at pick No. 6.  If the 49ers bundled all of their draft picks together and tried a mad dash up the board, they could maybe move up 10 slots to pick No. 5, and that’s a super-optimistic projection.  It may not be technically impossible for the 49ers to grab either player, but it’s not exactly feasible, either.

Besides, Colin Kaepernick will be the starting quarterback in 2015.  The 49ers need a backup for 2015, and a potential competitor for the 2016 job in the worst-case scenario, but it's nothing worth breaking the bank for here.  Even if Winston or Mariota did slide to the middle of the first round, the 49ers would be better off trading back and getting more picks from a quarterback-needy team.

Running Backs

Associated Press

Georgia's Todd Gurley

26. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
35. Todd Gurley, Georgia
43. Tevin Coleman, Indiana
46. Duke Johnson, Miami (FL)

The 49ers might need to add some depth to the running back corps if Frank Gore leaves in free agency.  They have Carlos Hyde penciled in as the starter and Kendall Hunter returning from injury as a change-of-pace guy, but they could use at least one more body.

I don’t really know if they want to use a pick on one in the first two rounds, though.  They used a second-round pick last year on Hyde, so a more complementary back sometime on Day 3 of the draft probably makes more sense.

Gordon has the chance to be the first first-round running back since 2012, thanks to his incredible 7.5 yards per carry last season, despite being the only focal point of Wisconsin’s offense.  I don’t see the 49ers using a first-round pick on a back, though, so it’s the other three names that should draw attention if the 49ers do go with a running back early.

I expect Gurley, Coleman and Johnson to all be gone by the time the 49ers pick in the second round.  However, with three backs in roughly the same area of the draft, it’s entirely possible one or two could in fact slip down.

That might well be Gurley, who suffered a torn ACL in November, and is likely out until the middle of August.  The 49ers have tried drafting injured-goods backs before, with mixed success—Frank Gore famously fell down the draft board due to knee injuries and has been amazing, while Marcus Lattimore never saw the field.

Gurley’s injury isn’t nearly as bad as Lattimore’s was, and he was averaging 7.4 yards per carry before going down.  Gurley wouldn’t need to contribute right away, either, with Hyde and Hunter carrying the load; he could slowly work his way into the lineup.  I don’t think the 49ers will use a high-round pick on a running back, but Gurley would be a great addition if they did.

Receivers

Associated Press

Louisville's Devante Parker

2. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5. Devante Parker, WR, Louisville
6. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
7. Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
10. Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
12. Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
15. Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
16. Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
17. Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
29. Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford
32. Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State
37. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

The 49ers will almost certainly take a pass-catcher in the first two rounds of the draft.  By the time the draft is over, I could see them adding three receivers to their roster; that’s how talent-starved they are at the position.  I could even see logical strategies that would have them go with two receivers in the first two rounds, though that might be going a bit overboard.

Three of the top four players on the overall big board are defensive linemen, but none of them are likely to fall to the 49ers.  Take out those sort of unlikely pipe-dream players, and the 49ers' top three desired players are all receivers—Parker, White and Funchess.

While Amari Cooper would be a fantastic addition to the team, he’s probably going in the top five, possibly to Oakland.  I’m fairly certain at least one of the Parker/White/Funchess trio will also be taken before the 49ers get to pick, but I think they can stay put and get at least one of the three

I have Parker atop the set for a couple of reasons.  Funchess is last because he’s a tight end who will likely play receiver in the NFL, so there’s a minor positional switch there.  I think the 49ers are more in need of a faster receiver like Parker or White than a big hulking body like Funchess, so he drops to third out of the three.

Parker slips over White because of a better ability to slip away from defenders and exploit holes in the zone.  In addition, White only had one year at a major college, having spent 2011 and 2012 at Lackawanna College.  Parker’s experience is worth a slight edge for me.

Still, any of them would be a fine addition to the team, and I think the 49ers can sit back and let one fall.

If all of them are taken, however, the 49ers have a couple of options.  They could slightly reach for Devin Smith, who went on a crazy hot streak during Ohio State’s postseason run.  He got some low marks at the Senior Bowl, however, according to a report by Patrick Maks of Eleven Warriors, which compiled assessments from various analysts, so it might be best to wait until the second round.

At least three of the names on the list should fall to the 49ers in the second round; there’s kind of a glut of that second-round quality talent; players with a question mark but lots of potential.

I originally had Stanford’s Ty Montgomery as a potential first-round pick, but I wasn’t super-impressed by news coming out of the Senior Bowl.  He showed some issues with the deep ball, according to SB Nation's Dan Kadar, so that’s definitely a concern. 

As a second-round pick, however, I think you can live with that—Montgomery can excel in a short-range passing game picking up yards after the catch and is a potential home run threat as a return guy.  If the 49ers miss out on a first-round pick, Montgomery wouldn’t be the worst fallback option.

Offensive Linemen

David Stephenson/Associated Press

South Carolina's A.J. Cann

18. A.J. Cann, OG, South Carolina
22. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
31. Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (FL)
36. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
38. Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
41. Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
42. La’el Collins, OT, LSU

The 49ers don’t really need an offensive tackle, which is almost too bad—there are some interesting names that might be available in the first two rounds for them to look at.  Ereck Flowers, in particular, looks like he’ll end up as a nice starter for someone this season, at least at right tackle.  That’s not really what the 49ers are shopping for, however, and I’d be a little stunned if tackles end up on San Francisco’s early draft boards.

Guard, however, might be a different story.  If Mike Iupati leaves, the 49ers will need to find a new left guard.  They have some options already on the roster.  Brandon Thomas is coming off an ACL tear, Joe Looney is a quality backup and the loser of the Daniel Kilgore/Marcus Martin competition at center could play there as well.

If, however, none of those options particularly thrill whoever the new offensive coordinator is, and all the top receivers and pass-rushers are gone by the time the 49ers pick, I could see them taking South Carolina’s A.J. Cann.  Like Iupati, he’s a powerful mauler with excellent technique.  He’s not going to succeed if he has to spring off the snap and rush to a position, but in a power-blocking scheme, he’s first-round quality.

I think it would be more likely for the 49ers to trade down and try to take Cann at the end of the first round or even hope he falls all the way to the second, rather than taking him with their first pick, thanks to the sorts of players the 49ers already have on the roster.  If they are going to take an early guard, though, Cann’s the man.

Defensive Ends

John Raoux/Associated Press

Florida's Dante Fowler

1. Leonard Williams, DL, USC
3. Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
4. Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
8. Dante Fowler Jr., DE/OLB, Florida
11. Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
13. Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon
23. Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas
33. Shilique Calhoun, DE/OLB, Michigan State
39. Lorenzo Mauldin, DE/OLB, Louisville

If the 49ers decide to stick with the 3-4 defense that has done them so well through the Vic Fangio regime, there’s only two actual defensive ends on this list. Leonard Williams might be the best overall player in the draft, so he’ll be gone long before the 49ers pick.  The other one is Arik Armstead. 

Armstead’s a long and lanky player at 6’8”, 290 pounds, and that’s quite the imposing frame to get into a short quarterback’s passing lanes—say, someone like the 5’11” Russell Wilson.  That would definitely be worth considering for a first-round pick, just based on his massive measurables.

If the 49ers decide to shift into a 4-3 defense, however, all of these other players would see their stock rise as potential defensive ends.  Whenever you shift defensive philosophies like that, you need to bring in some talent that fits that particular scheme.  A defensive end like that is really all I could see the 49ers passing up on a receiver for in the first round.

Dante Fowler from Florida is probably the best non-receiver the 49ers could hope to grab.  Fowler can fit into whatever scheme the 49ers end up using, though a 4-3 defensive end is probably his best bet in the NFL. 

He’s great at setting the edge, though he sometimes has a tendency to over-pursue into the backfield.  He’s not explosive so much as he is massively strong, able to push defenders back.  He’d be a great fit in the first round.

It’s probably more likely that the 49ers address the position in the second round, however, and that’s where Trey Flowers could come into play.  Flowers isn’t going to fit into a 3-4 system at all, but at 6’4”, 268 pounds, he has the frame that you’d want from your 4-3 end.  He doesn’t have that great initial burst you’d like to see, but he picks up speed relatively quickly coming off the edge. 

He also has nice long arms, with a whopping 84-inch wingspan.  He can lasso rushers who try to slip past him, and he can get his hands into the passing lanes quite nicely.  He’s not explosive enough to be a first-round pick, but he’d be a nice addition in Round 2.

Defensive Tackles

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Texas' Malcom Brown

21. Danny Shelton, Washington
27. Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma
30. Eddie Goldman, Florida State
40. Malcom Brown, Texas

Defensive tackle is not a pressing need for the 49ers.  In theory, there’s nothing stopping Glenn Dorsey and Ian Williams from being healthy at the same time; the fact that it’s never happened in practice doesn’t mean that the 49ers don’t have two starting-quality tackles already on the roster.

Any defensive tackle the 49ers were to draft, then, would have to have the potential to play multiple positions along the line.

Danny Shelton had an amazing Senior Bowl according to Mike Mayock (via NFL.com's Bryan Fischer).  He’s a top-10-caliber player who might end up dropping just based on the needs of the teams picking that high.  If Shelton were to tumble to No. 15, would the 49ers take him?  I think they’d probably trade down, but he’s an incredible talent, so they’d at least be tempted.

A more likely pick would be Malcom Brown from Texas in the second round.  Brown fits that versatility characteristic you’d want from an early defensive lineman, as he’s played every technique on the line at Texas.  

He could fit no matter which front the 49ers choose to use in 2015.  CBSSports.com has him listed as a first-round pick, but other sources, including ESPN’s Mel Kiper (via Brian Davis of the Statesman), have him as more of a second-round guy.  If he does fall to the second round, he’d be a great pickup for the team.

Linebackers

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Washington's Shaq Thompson

25. Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
34. Bud Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky
44. Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami (FL)

The 49ers really are good on linebackers.  The only way I could see them drafting one early is if they stick with the 3-4 front and both Ahmad Brooks and Dan Skuta leave the team.

That would still leave the 49ers with Aldon Smith and Aaron Lynch on the end, but at least then, you could justify a second-round pick on someone to provide insurance as a rush linebacker for depth reasons.  Even then, however, I think the 49ers would leave that until Round 3, at the earliest.

I’m a big fan of Shaq Thompson, though, so I had to list him fairly high.  He doesn’t have the size or explosiveness of Smith or Lynch, but he’s fluid and aware in coverage, with great aggression and instincts on the field.  He’s undersized for the position, but so was Chris Borland—and both have the kind of instincts you need to make up for that.

He’s small enough that he might actually transition to safety in the NFL—think of someone like Michael Boulware, who went from linebacker to safety for Seattle back in 2004, with some success.  He also has excellent skills with the ball. 

He actually started two games at running back for Washington this last year, going over 100 yards each time.  He’s not going to be an NFL running back, but I could see some trick formations with him lining up as a fullback, getting the occasional carry here and there.

The value isn’t right for the 49ers most likely, but Thompson is a very intriguing player, if he fell to the second round.

Defensive Backs

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Michigan State's Trae Waynes

19. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
20. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
24. Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
28. Landon Collins, S, Alabama
45. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon

If the 49ers see both Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox leave in free agency this offseason, they’ll need to add some cornerback depth to the roster.  It’s feeling less and less likely that they’ll do so in the first two rounds, as they have Tramaine Brock, Jimmie Ward and Dontae Johnson available in a worst-case scenario, but there’s some talent available if they end up going in that direction.

Ideally, they’d use a second-round pick on the likes of Trae Waynes.  He might fall some because of his build; at a lanky 6’1”, 182 pounds, some might consider him too frail to mix it up with the bigger receivers in the NFL.  That’d be great for the 49ers, because Waynes is more physical than his body type would imply, and he might well be the top cover corner in the draft.

It’d be more likely someone such as Ekpre-Olomu would be available in the second round, as he suffered what looks to be a serious knee injury leading up to Oregon’s postseason run.  I’m leaving him on the big board, but I dropped him from 16 to 45 due to the news.  The injury may be severe enough to drop him out of the top few rounds entirely, so that’s something to keep an eye on going forward.

Bryan Knowles is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.