Vikings Free Agency: Projecting Contract Offers for Minnesota
Like the rest of the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings will dig into the 2015 crop of free agents between now and early March, when the signing window opens. As always, manipulating contracts to appease the salary cap will be the primary objective.
Via OverTheCap.com, the Vikings currently sit in the middle of the pack in terms of cap space, having $16.6 million to work with.
Potential cuts to the likes of Adrian Peterson, Chad Greenway and Matt Cassel would immediately raise that figure to almost $40 million. With some combination of cost-cutting moves, Minnesota will certainly give itself more than the $17 million currently in reserve.
Minnesota and all other teams will also be sure to set money aside for draft picks and undrafted free agents. That should not require more than $10 million.
All that said, let's try and project the contract figures of six free agents the Vikings could potentially target in free agency, thinking about scheme fits, positional needs and future value of the player relative to the team's winning window.
The projected salary-cap increase also means that, all else being equal, salary figures will be higher in 2015 for players compared to free agents last year.
DeMarco Murray
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The Vikings are likely to have two different approaches in mind for the backfield. One approach assumes that Peterson does not return in 2015. In that case, Minnesota could target a top back, using the cap savings from a Peterson's departure to restock a position that would sorely need an upgrade.
It seems like a certainty that DeMarco Murray will hit the market. Potential figures have already surfaced. Chris Wesseling of NFL.com shared Ian Rapoport's report on an offer the Dallas Cowboys put on the table for Murray:
"Per @RapSheet, Cowboys have had a 4-year deal worth more than $16M on the table for DeMarco Murray. No wonder he hasn't signed.
— Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) January 14, 2015"
That's a low-ball offer for a back who totaled over 2,200 offensive yards in 2014 and scored 13 touchdowns. Murray is also not a deteriorating asset just yet; he turns 27 in February.
By comparison, Toby Gerhart, a back with no starting experience beforehand, earned an average salary of $3.5 million when he signed with the Jacksonville Jaguars last year. Even an older back like Chris Johnson was able to net $4 million per year.
Neither Gerhart nor Johnson compares to Murray on the field, though. The soon-to-be-former Cowboy is a foundational back.
Any contract averaging over $6 million per year would put Murray into the top six earners at the position. The sweet spot probably lands somewhere between $7 million and $9 million; those are certainly figures the Vikings could handle if Peterson is taken off the books.
Murray's age and massive 2014 workload should keep his salary from reaching ridiculous levels beyond Minnesota's resources, but a bidding war for Murray could push the number beyond its willingness to pay.
Stevan Ridley
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The Vikings must also be prepared if Peterson returns. Because his salary will increase in 2016 and 2017, the team should still have a Plan B at the position, one that builds depth.
Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen are both set to hit free agency for the New England Patriots. With the encouraging play from LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and Brandon Bolden in 2014, Vereen is likely to be the only one brought back.
Minnesota would be eyeing Ridley as a No. 3 or rotational No. 2 back, as long as Matt Asiata is let go as a restricted free agent.
Ridley will find it hard to earn over $2 million in average salary and may only be targeted on a short-term, prove-it deal. Darren McFadden signed a one-year deal with the Oakland Raiders for $1.8 million last year. Like McFadden's deal, any potential deal for Ridley is likely to come with incentives and bonuses.
Instead of a longer, more lucrative deal like Murray's, a contract for Ridley or a comparable depth back is likely to be for only a season or two and relatively cheap.
If Peterson returns and the Vikings bank on a healthy Jerick McKinnon in 2015, the team will only be looking for a No. 3 back with a few applicable skills, which will keep the price down.
Kenny Britt
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If enough teams feel comfortable with Kenny Britt's checkered past off the field, a strong market will emerge for the St. Louis Rams receiver.
Britt found a way to be productive with Shaun Hill and Austin Davis at quarterback in 2014. Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders tells why that is even more impressive than it sounds:
"Kenny Britt - first Rams receiver to crack 700 yards (748) in a season since 2008.
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) December 29, 2014"
Britt's value will skyrocket in relation to where it was a year ago at this time. He ended up signing a one-year deal with the Rams for only $1.4 million. At 26 years old, Britt still has many productive years left in him. That and a clean year off the field should lead to a long-term contract of four or more years this time around.
A player of comparable age at the time, Golden Tate, earned a contract with an average of $6.2 million. The $4-6 million range feels appropriate. Eric Decker had more success and earned an average of $7.3 million, but his production and reliability far outpaces Britt's current standing. Both Decker and Tate had about 42 percent of their contracts guaranteed, which seems to be the going rate.
Proceedings could go south for Britt if character reports doom his negotiations with teams. If not, a contract averaging around $5 million in salary with $8 million guaranteed over four years is realistic.
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Mike Iupati
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The most realistic target for the offensive line would be a left guard. Mike Iupati has a pedigree on one of the league's best units since joining the San Francisco 49ers.
Rodger Saffold was the top earner at the position last year, signing for an average of $6.3 million in St. Louis. That contract also carried with it a massive 62 percent in guaranteed money. Zane Bealdes signed for a similar total with the Jacksonville Jaguars for an average of $6 million but with only 42 percent guaranteed.
Andy Levitre is closer to Iupati's ilk and earned an average of $7.8 million two years ago with only 28 percent guaranteed. The dynamic between average salary and guaranteed money will have a big impact on Iupati's eventual numbers.
An average salary up above $7 million seems likely for Iupati. That figure would place him in the top five earners at the position.
Like Murray and Britt, Iupati will likely earn a long-term contract of four or five years. If Minnesota feels pressed for space, it could up the guaranteed money and prorate it over the next few years to ease Iupati's hit on the 2015 cap.
The offensive line needs to be addressed, so the Vikings should be willing to cut a big check for a player like Iupati.
Buster Skrine
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The verdict on Captain Munnerlyn's first season in Minnesota fell much closer to failure than success. Last year's free-agent signing struggled mightily. The Vikings could go back to the well on a talented cover guy like Buster Skrine.
As Dane Brugler of CBS Sports pointed out, Skrine is about to earn a nice paycheck:
"If this is Buster Skrine's final game for the Browns, he's going out playing physical. His asking price has gone up throughout 2014
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) December 28, 2014"
Ironically, Skrine's contract could compare to Munnerlyn's from a year ago, with a slight increase due to growth in the salary cap. Munnerlyn worked out a deal with Minnesota for $3.8 million per year and about 40 percent guaranteed over three seasons.
Somewhere between $4-5 million per year seems reasonable for Skrine, a CB who projects as a No. 2 guy. He would complement Xavier Rhodes and contribute in the slot as well.
Rey Maualuga
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The link between Rey Maualuga and the Vikings may be a strong one this offseason. He and Mike Zimmer have a history, and the Minnesota head coach trusts Maualuga's experience and knowledge of the defensive scheme.
Maualuga is a cheaper target for the Vikings however. He will be 28 years old in 2015 and is coming off an average season at best. His value will also be driven down by the fact that he projects as a two-down LB for the Vikings, and the starting job is not even a guarantee with Audie Cole as his competition.
Those factors will keep the price of any target at inside linebacker down and could limit a free agent like Maualuga to a short-term deal.
A Brandon Spikes contract is Maualuga's ceiling, at an average of $3 million per year. Like Spikes' contract, a one-year deal would be tempting for the Vikings. Somewhere between $2-3 million makes the most sense, and incentives for playing time and production would greatly benefit the Vikings.
Salary figures via Spotrac.com unless noted otherwise. Statistics via ESPN.com.
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