3 Bold Predictions for the Los Angeles Dodgers' 2015 Season

The sky appears to be the limit for the 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers. Their new acquisitions bring flexibility and talent, and the outgoing players have been adequately replaced. 

2014 saw the team finish 94-68, the second-best record in the National League, and although the team on the field will look different than it did at the end of last year, it should still be successful. The major departures are Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon, and Matt Kemp, but Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick, and the potential platoon of Joc Pederson and Scott Van Slyke should be able to replace the production of the aforementioned trio. Additionally, the Dodgers added some high-upside pitchers to the back of the rotation in Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson.

Predicting that the Dodgers will win the World Series is not exactly the goal of this column; they are a talented team, and we have seen from the past several years that any team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate shot to win it all. Instead, I will be focusing on long-term predictions that would go a long way towards guaranteeing regular-season success.

Matt Kemp Will Not Be Missed

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Kemp’s departure saddened many Dodger fans, but Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi made an excellent move.

First, the Dodgers had too many big league outfielders. It was impractical to think that they could go into Opening Day with each of Kemp, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Yasiel Puig, Pederson, and Van Slyke on the roster. Teams generally only carry five outfielders, so six was too many.

Equally important, Kemp had the most practical value of any of the trade options. Puig and Pederson were not going to be moved unless a superstar was coming back to Los Angeles, and Kemp was the best player of the remaining four. Many fans would undoubtedly have rather seen Ethier and Crawford leave than Kemp, but the flaws that we see are equally apparent to the other 29 teams. Kemp, though, has some upside after his scorching second half, and it makes sense that a team would want to trade for him.

The return for Kemp was solid.

Yasmani Grandal is a better hitter than AJ Ellis, bringing an offensive upgrade behind the plate. However, the most important aspect of the trade was that it freed up at-bats for Pederson and Van Slyke. Pederson is the best defensive center fielder on the 40-man roster, and the flexibility to play him against right-handed starters means he can stay on the active roster. Van Slyke mashes lefties, so even if Pederson’s same-side struggles continue (he could not hit lefties in AAA), Van Slyke provides a cheap and obvious platoon partner.

Given the defensive upgrade each player is on Kemp, there’s no reason to expect a significant downgrade in the outfield.

This Infield Will Be an Improvement

Damian Dovarganes/Associated Press

Last year’s infield was good, but it was buoyed by an unsustainable performance from Gordon. Ramirez is on the downswing, so the new additions of Kendrick and Rollins should be better this year than that combination is.

The holdovers are Juan Uribe and Adrian Gonzalez, and they represent consistent veteran options. After two horrible offensive years in 2011 and 2012, Uribe has had two good seasons in a row. He has turned into a solid offensive player (116 and 120 wRC+ in 2013 and 2014) with elite defense. He was the second-best third baseman, according to FanGraphs’ cumulative defensive measures.

Gonzalez, on the other hand, has gotten most of his value from offense, but he has been consistently above average. He has posted a wRC+ between 116 and 128 in each of the last three years, so while he is no longer the superstar he appeared to be in Boston and his last year in San Diego, he is still consistently worth a few wins per year.

Both Gonzalez and Uribe are in their mid-30s (32 and 35, respectively), so we would expect some drop-off at some point. However, barring a significant loss of bat speed, the two shouldn’t be completely lost causes this next year.

Rollins and Kendrick present upgrades over the 2015 versions of Ramirez and Gordon. Ramirez has played fewer than 100 games in two of the past four seasons, and his litany of soft tissue (shoulder and hamstring) injuries bodes poorly for his future health.

On a similarly negative note, Gordon has a short track record of success and a longer one of failure. Last season was his first above-average offensive year, and even that was largely buoyed by an insanely hot first half that was followed by a second half more in line with his career averages.

The Dodgers Will Have the Best Record in Baseball

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The Dodgers were, of course, quite good last year, but they were not the best of the best. They finished with the fourth-best record in MLB and the fifth-best run differential, so there was still some room for improvement.

Friedman and Zaidi both improved the team and increased its flexibility. As I recounted above, both the outfield and the infield have the potential to be better. A couple of the long-term or risky commitments are off the books (Kemp and Ramirez), so even if one of the expected starters underperforms—whether it be Rollins or Uribe or Pederson—replacing him would be possible.

The farm system appears to be close to bearing fruit, and recent trades have replenished the pitching depth in the upper levels of the minors. Prospects Scott Schebler and Corey Seager reached Double-A in 2014, so a shortage of position players could be solved with a potential influx of youth. If injury risks like McCarthy and Anderson miss significant time, new addition Joe Wieland or minor leaguers Zach Lee and Chris Reed provide depth.

Overall, the Dodgers are supremely talented. FanGraphs projections have the Dodgers as the best team in baseball for 2015, and they are projected to finish with the second-most WAR. None of that should come as a surprise. A 94-win team did not get worse, and the elite prospects are getting closer to the big leagues. The Dodgers are a deep and gifted team with the potential to run away from the rest of the league.

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.