Ranking Top 12 2015 NBA Draft Prospects with the Most Potential
Potential and upside go hand in hand. They both reflect one's ceiling, and there are a number of 2015 NBA prospects whose ceilings reach All-Star heights.
In terms of the projected field, we counted 12 guys who've separated themselves as high-upside options.
However, having the most potential doesn't necessarily equate to being the top prospect. It just means their best-case scenario and outlooks are stronger. Athleticism and versatility are typically attributes that boost a prospect's outlook.
Whether each prospect can maximize his potential is the question every general manager will be asking himself prior to the draft.
12. Stanley Johnson, Arizona, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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It's not Stanley Johnson's towering ceiling that's so appealing—it's his low bust potential and high basement floor. Johnson projects more as a safe pick than an upside one.
He's a powerful, coordinated athlete, though he doesn't jump out of the gym or explode off the ground, and that's limited his ability to pick up easy buckets, as he's shooting just 48 percent at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com.
But the rest of his game is rock solid, as is that 6'7", 245-pound frame that should definitely come in handy during the physical transition to the pros.
Johnson can shoot and score inside the arc on pull-ups, floaters and runners, while his defensive tools are nothing short of textbook, from his size, strength and length to his quickness and intensity.
He projects as a wing you'd eventually be able to stick on guys like LeBron James, Paul George and Andrew Wiggins, who he's got 45 pounds of muscle on.
Johnson ultimately has two-way potential in the form of a Kawhi Leonard or a throwback Ron Artest. I'm not sure he'll ever pose as a top-two scoring option, which limits his upside, but he's as good of a bet to eventually land a starting gig as any wing the field.
11. Kelly Oubre, Kansas, 6'7", SF, Freshman
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At 6'7", Kelly Oubre has classic swingman size and electric athleticism, which are only enhanced by a built-in lethal outside stroke.
He's a natural shooter with deep range and a quick trigger. Since breaking into Kansas' rotation eight games ago, Oubre has hit 15 of 30 from downtown.
It's not just spotting up—he's got the ability to handle the ball and pull up off the dribble, while his scoring instincts come into play as a finisher on the move.
And though he still has a ways to go in terms of building up his defensive IQ, the tools are there—size, length, quickness.
Between his burst, offensive versatility and two-way potential, Oubre's upside is bigger than what his production and current complementary role might suggest.
10. Justise Winslow, Duke, 6'6", SF, Freshman
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Of all the projected 2015 first-round candidates, Justise Winslow just might be the most athletic of any of them. And at 6'6", 225 pounds, he's got the NBA body and motor to go with it.
Winslow's touch and ball skills are behind wings like Stanley Johnson's, Kelly Oubre's and Mario Hezonja's. And that hurts his short-term outlook.
But at just 18 years old, Winslow ultimately excels in areas of the game you just can't teach, while he's shown enough promise as a shooter and attacker to suggest improvement will come with time. He's hit a three-pointer in 15 of Duke's 16 games and made some unstoppable slashes and drives.
Defensively, Winslow has flashed lockdown potential and the ability to guard multiple positions, which plays to his two-way appeal and the cushion he'll have if his offense plateaus prematurely.
9. Kevon Looney, UCLA, 6'9", PF, Freshman
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Kevon Looney's ceiling reflects his inside-out offensive potential driven by promising perimeter ball skills and an overwhelming presence on the block.
At this stage midway through his freshman year at UCLA, Looney has been more effective around the basket, where his length, aggression and instincts have translated to 10.3 rebounds a game. Looney already has 30 putbacks on the year, and though still a bit raw, he's shown the ability to finish through contact or score over the shoulder.
In doses, however, we've also seen Looney look sharp as a face-up forward outside. He's got a natural-looking shooting stroke as well as the ability to put it on the floor and either pull up or take it strong.
Looney's fluidity is still fairly choppy, but the skill set is there. And at 6'9" with a 7'3" wingspan, if he's able to really develop his jumper and overall perimeter-scoring repertoire, you're not going to find too many guys who can evenly match up.
8. Myles Turner, Texas, 6'11", PF/C, Freshman
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While most stretch big men are typically weak interior defenders and the majority of rim protectors are usually limited to high- and low-post scoring, Myles Turner's blend of strengths is rare.
At 6'11", he blocks shots, 2.8 per game, and shoots threes, currently at a scorching-hot 46.2 percent clip. Turner is polished on the perimeter, where he can spot up or separate into jumpers with jab steps, fallaways and turnarounds.
Defensively, he's got a monster 7'4" wingspan and solid instincts in terms of reacting around the rim. His 12.9 block percentage, via RealGM, ranks just a hair better than Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns'.
Turner is a good athlete, not a great one, and given his injury history and shaky mobility, there are questions concerning his durability and strength for the interior.
But if he's able to hold up physically and ultimately grow into his body, Turner has the potential to offer some invaluable two-way versatility, from shooting and scoring to rebounding and rim protection.
7. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky, 7'0", C, Junior
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Willie Cauley-Stein has the potential to single-handedly change the dynamic of a game. Only he can do it without needing the ball on offense.
At 7'0", nobody covers more defensive ground than Cauley-Stein, who protects the rim, switches out on pick-and-rolls, denies the post, traps full court and forces turnovers. He's got the size of a center, the athleticism of a wing and the coordination of an NFL wide receiver.
There isn't a player in the country taller than 6'9" with a higher steal percentage.
"It's not much that I can't do as long as I work at it," he told The Courier-Journal's Kyle Tucker in December. "I feel like I can do anything."
And while he lacks polish at the offensive end, he's shooting above 57 percent for the third straight season. Cauley-Stein is an easy-bucket machine above the rim off drop-offs, lobs and putbacks, much like Tyson Chandler, who's made plenty of impact without post moves or a jumper in his repertoire.
6. D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State, 6'5", PG/SG, Freshman
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At 6'5", D'Angelo Russell has 2-guard size and scoring ability. His vision, passing instincts and posture suggest he could run a team at the point.
Currently averaging five assists per game, you get the feeling he could nearly double that number if he wasn't relied on so heavily to score and Shannon Scott didn't share the backcourt. He sees the floor exceptionally well, whether he's operating off the dribble as a playmaker or simply as a stationary ball-mover on the perimeter.
However, his 18.1 point-per-game average, good for No. 2 in the country among freshmen behind Jahlil Okafor, also highlights his lethal scoring attack. Russell has a deadly shooting stroke, having made 48 threes through 18 games at a lights-out 44 percent clip. And he's got the balance to stop and pop or float one right over the defense.
At this point, the only thing keeping Russell from leapfrogging Emmanuel Mudiay as the top point guard prospect is athleticism. But he's not exactly a stiff out there.
I can dig the Goran Dragic comparison for Russell, who's got sneaky upside as a versatile lefty playmaker and shooter. There's no doubt in my mind he's got starting franchise floor general potential.
5. Mario Hezonja, Croatia, 6'8", SG/SF, 1995
8 of 12A 6'8" interchangeable wing with spectacular athletic ability, Mario Hezonja's upside has been generating buzz overseas since 2011.
If you're interested in drafting him early, you're chasing a potential mismatch against 2-guards and smaller forwards.
Hezonja already has the sweet shooting stroke—he's hit 17 of 39 three-point attempts (43.5 percent) over his last 10 games. Against Unicaja Malaga on Sunday, he nailed a triple (up one, 20 seconds left in the third quarter) from about six feet behind the arc with comfort and confidence.
Though he hasn't had the chance to do much creating, at the junior level, we have seen him demonstrate takeover ability as a one-on-one scorer. Hezonja also comes with textbook defensive tools and strong vision as a passer.
At 18 years old, he didn't play much for Barcelona in 2013-14, and though his minutes are up this year, they've still fluctuated, while his role remains limited.
Without the opportunity to consistently make plays, he's a bit further away from his ceiling than most. But the possible reward that might result from Hezonja reaching it could be well worth the risk and wait.
4. Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia, 7'0", PF, 1995
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At 7'0", Kristaps Porzingis is a terrific athlete, a combination that has appeal in itself.
He glides down the floor and effortlessly elevates off the ground, which leads to easy open-floor buckets and dunks off cuts, slashes and lobs.
However, it's Porzingis' perimeter skills that ultimately separate him and drive his ceiling higher than most. He's shooting 42.9 percent from downtown on the year, thanks to a clean, concise release on his jumper, which he uses out of pick-and-pops and drive-and-kicks.
But his shot-making capability extends past catching and shooting. Porzingis can knock down turnarounds over his shoulder or one-dribble step-backs in the mid-range. And with an adequate handle, he can put the ball on the floor and attack slower big men off the bounce.
While the Dirk Nowitzki comparisons are a little much, it's his size, face-up attack and stroke that fuel them.
Unfortunately, while Porzingis' upside is massive, there's also some bust potential attached to his 220-pound frame and lack of comfort in the lost post. Whoever takes him will have to hope his body eventually fills out, but the possible reward tied to his best-case scenario could ultimately be worth gambling on in the top five.
3. Emmanuel Mudiay, China, 6'5", PG, 1996
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Emmanuel Mudiay's captivating upside is fueled by the mismatch his physical tools and athleticism create at the point.
Standing 6'5" with explosive burst, he's an above-the-rim ball-handler, much like John Wall or Brandon Knight, guys who can hang in the air and finish over traffic.
But he's also skilled with floor vision and has a good feel for the game. While Mudiay has the ability to take over as a scorer, whether it's by attacking, pull-up shooting or working the runner-floater game (averaged 17.7 points in China through 10 games before hurting his ankle), he's also showcased the poise to facilitate the offense.
He's dangerous in the drive-and-kick game and proficient running pick-and-rolls.
At this stage, the biggest obstacles Mudiay will face will be improving his jumper and decision-making. But these are rectifiable issues that almost every 18-year-old faces.
In terms of pure, natural talent, we might not see a point guard prospect with as much as Mudiay's for another few years.
2. Jahlil Okafor, Duke, 6'11", C, Freshman
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Arguably one of the most polished freshman big men we've seen at the Division I level, Jahlil Okafor's 6'11" size, 270-pound frame, 7'5" wingspan and basketball IQ only strengthen his NBA case.
He's not as light on his feet as Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns, but like Tim Duncan, Al Jefferson, Pau Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge (to name a few), Okafor's upside is powered by elite skills, physical tools and footwork, not high-flying athleticism.
With go-to moves and others to counter with, Okafor has the potential to pose as a No. 1 scoring option in an offense.
According to ESPN's Fran Fraschilla (subscription required) via Synergy Sports Technology, "since 2006-07 only six major-conference players have scored at least 250 points on post-ups. Okafor is poised to join this group."
He's averaging 18.9 points and rarely gets a touch anymore without seeing an immediate double-team.
Unlike most of the young 2015 prospects, Okafor has shown the ability to dominate right now. And given his power, mobility and brains, there aren't really any red flags concerning his eventual offensive transition.
If only he showed the same natural defensive instincts as Towns, it would boost his outlook as a rim protector and overall two-way presence.
Still, Okafor's ability to control a game from the post and ultimately take it over as a scorer packs enough value in itself.
Regardless of how tall you believe his NBA ceiling is, the certainty he offers should make him the heavy 2015 No. 1 overall favorite.
1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky, 6'11", C, Freshman
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When all these lottery prospects are lining up on the 2015 NBA draft stage, nobody's ceiling will stand taller than Karl-Anthony Towns, even if he isn't the first one picked.
He's just not as polished as Duke's Jahlil Okafor—drafting Towns before him would require a little extra faith in his development.
But if Towns really hits his stride, he'll have the potential to cover more two-way ground than anyone in the projected field.
He's got the physical build of a center—6'11", 250-pound size, 7'4" wingspan, fluid athleticism—along with the skill set of a power forward.
Offensively, it's come in doses, but he's flashed it all, from low-post and face-up scoring to outside shooting and heads-up passing.
Still, it might be Towns' defensive prowess that pushes his ceiling higher than Okafor's. He's blocking 2.4 shots in only 20.3 minutes per game (Okafor blocks 1.6 in 29.6 minutes), looking much more instinctive and aggressive as a help defender or rim protector.
If everything falls into place, there won't be another prospect in the class who can impact a game from as many angles.
Though a lot further from his ceiling than Okafor is to his, Towns has giant Swiss army knife potential as a versatile, two-way franchise-type big man.
All advanced stats stats courtesy of Hoop-Math.com, RealGM.com. All basis stats courtesy of ESPN.com.
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