How Did Things Get so Bad so Fast for the Denver Broncos?

My, oh my, how quickly things can change in the NFL.

At the beginning of the 2014 season, the Denver Broncos were viewed as one of, if not the leading contenders to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLIX. At the midway point, that perception hadn't changed much at all.

Now, after being unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs in the divisional round by the Indianapolis Colts, the Broncos are being viewed through the warming glow of the growing dumpster fire in the Mile High City.

The head coach is gone. So are both coordinators in all likelihood. Key offensive contributors, including quarterback Peyton Manning, could follow.

And reeling fans are left to wonder how things could possibly have spiraled out of control so quickly.

It certainly wasn't supposed to be like this.

After getting waxed by the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII, the Broncos hit free agency hard, especially on defense. High-priced free agents like defensive end DeMarcus Ware, safety T.J. Ward and cornerback Aqib Talib were brought in to fix what was perceived as "the problem."

And for a time at least, it appeared that Denver general manger (and executive vice president, and all-around grand poobah) John Elway's plan was working.

Over the first 10 weeks of the 2014 season, the Broncos went 7-2, with their losses coming in overtime at Seattle and at New England (the top seeds from each conference in this year's playoffs).

The offense, while not quite operating at last year's record-setting level, was as good as any in football. Ware and outside linebacker Von Miller had combined for 17 sacks, spurring on a defense that looked light-years better than last year's squad.

Then came Week 11, and the beginning of the troubles.

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

In a Week 11 trip to face the last-place St. Louis Rams, the Broncos managed only a single touchdown, falling 22-7. Manning was sacked twice, intercepted twice and spent much of the day running for his life behind an offensive line that looked little like the unit that ranked No. 1 in the NFL in pass protection, per Football Outsiders in 2013.

The line wasn't the only issue for the Broncos down the stretch. After posting a 29-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the first 10 weeks of 2014, Manning's play slid significantly. Starting with that Rams game, Manning threw only 10 touchdown passes against eight interceptions the rest of the way.

One year after setting NFL records for both passing yardage and touchdown passes, Manning topped 300 yards through the air only twice over the last seven weeks of the season.

Month	Comp. %	PYPG	TD	INT	Rating
September	66.7	271.3	8	1	108.5
October	70.9	330.0	14	2	127.4
November	64.3	320.6	14	6	95.1
December	63.6	247.5	3	6	76.8

Meanwhile, Ware and Miller, who combined for those 17 sacks over the first 10 weeks, managed only seven the rest of the way. Only two of those came courtesy of Ware.

Still, the Broncos lost only once more after the Rams game, entering the playoffs at 12-4 as the AFC's No. 2 seed. The offensive line once again finished the year atop Football Outsiders' pass protection rankings, actually allowing fewer sacks in 2014 (17) than the year before (20).

Everything was going to be OK. Or so we thought.

Turns out, that couldn't have been further from the truth.

Against the Colts, the Broncos couldn't generate any pressure on Andrew Luck, who picked on Talib in coverage both regularly and successfully. Manning looked every bit of 38 years old, completing less than 60 percent of his passes and throwing only a single touchdown pass.

Just like that, Denver's "Super Bowl or Bust" season was just that—busted.

And then someone hit the panic button.

Here's what we know. We know that on Monday, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Manning played the last month of the season (including the playoff loss) on a partially torn quad muscle:

We also know that same day, the Broncos and head coach John Fox decided to "mutually part ways," whatever the you-know-what that's supposed to mean.

Former Baltimore Ravens head coach Brian Billick had a theory:

As Rich Campbell and Dan Wiederer of the Chicago Tribune reported, Elway addressed the coach's departure while speaking with reporters on Tuesday:

"

The main thing between John and I was we disagreed about how to get to the next level. Because we accomplished so much — four AFC West championships — the biggest miss between us was how are we going to take that next step and what was it going to take to get to that next step.

"

Meanwhile, Manning—who as recently as Christmas Day told Lindsay Jones of USA Today that "I certainly plan on being back (in 2015) if the Broncos will have me"—didn't sound nearly as certain while speaking with Jim Nantz of CBS Sports (per Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk) prior to last Sunday's loss: 

"He actually told us that ‘I’m gonna wait and see, I can’t really in my heart tell you anything for sure right now. My intention is to play, but things have changed since I last said that."

Mind you, that was before the Broncos got their hats handed to them.

And that's about where the answers stop and the questions start.

For starters, who will be Denver's next head coach?

I'm not about to sit here and say that John Fox is a great coach. In two of his four years in Denver, the Broncos lost at home in their first playoff game despite being heavily favored. There were questionable coaching calls in the divisional-round loss to Baltimore in 2012:

Now that wasn't John Fox's fault. That play still makes my head hurt.

As Alex Marvez of Fox Sports reported, there were also criticisms from Denver players about the team's motivation and preparation leading up to last year's Super Bowl and last week's postseason loss:

"

Last March following the Super Bowl debacle, ex-Broncos defensive end Jeremy Mincey told co-host Zig Fracassi and me on SiriusXM NFL Radio that Denver players were "more laid-back and lackadaisical" than a younger Seahawks roster far more amped to play. Broncos cornerback Chris Harris echoed a similar thought about Denver's state of mind following Sunday's 24-13 upset by Indianapolis.

'We didn't come to play,' Harris told the media afterward.'We played well, but we didn't play great. And you have to play great in the playoffs.'

"

There was also, according to what Jay Glazer of Fox Sports told Florio, a rift between Elway and Fox that goes back much further than last week:

"

This has actually been a long time coming. We kind of knew, I figured that, all the way back to last year’s even Senior Bowl, [Scouting] Combine, this year’s situation where this is going to be one and done unless, they won a Super Bowl, I think John Elway, just everything that, you know, the talent that he was going to bring in there he wasn’t going to accept anything less. I think it was just kind of like, almost like a marriage gone bad. They were irreconcilable differences, that’s what it was.

"

Still, Fox was 46-18 in his four years in Denver, won the AFC West all four years (including one with Tim Tebow at quarterback) and is one of six head coaches in NFL history to lead two different teams to a Super Bowl.

Coach	Teams	Record
Don Shula	Colts/Dolphins	2-4
Dan Reeves	Broncos/Falcons	0-4
Bill Parcells	Giants/Patriots	2-1
Mike Holmgren	Packers/Seahawks	1-2
Dick Vermeil	Eagles/Rams	1-1
John Fox	Panthers/Broncos	0-2

Yes, there are coaches with better resumes out there—but they all have jobs.

Then there's the now very uncertain future of No. 18. Elway told those same reporters Tuesday that he spoke to Manning, telling him, "Just know how much we want you back." Elway also said that Manning "will be involved" in the Broncos' search for a new head coach.

That would appear to make offensive coordinator Adam Gase an easy call for Elway. Gase is a hot name where coaching vacancies are concerned this year, in no small part because Manning has reached out to teams to talk Gase up. Hiring Gase would provide Manning and the Broncos with offensive continuity.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

And yet, with Gase having interviewed a second time with the San Francisco 49ers Tuesday, Elway insisted that there's "no timetable" for a hire and that "no one has been contacted yet" about the vacancy.

Granted, Elway did say, per Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area, that both Gase and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio (who is considered a front-runner for the vacant head coaching job in Oakland) would receive consideration—sort of:

"They are both candidates. I’m not talking about interviewing anybody. We’re talking about candidates and whether they get interviewed or not, I’m not going to get into that right now."

If the whole football executive thing doesn't pan out for Elway, there's always politics, because the more he talked Tuesday the less he actually said.

Elway's waffling on Gase led Marvez to posit a very interesting question:

"

Do the Broncos really want (Manning) back, or are they ready to give Brock Osweiler the chance to start after three years on the bench a la Aaron Rodgers sitting behind Brett Favre in Green Bay?

And there's this chilling possibility in the 'cold world' that (Demaryius) Thomas referred to: Denver could be trying to prompt Manning's departure by not hiring Gase.

"

It sounds like blasphemy, but the fact is that, injury or no, Manning declined sharply in the second half of the season. Albert Breer of NFL.com rattled off a litany of distressing text messages concerning Manning after Sunday's faceplant:

"

From an AFC executive: 'Saw a lack of velocity, declining arm strength. No juice or zip on throws. Shelf life.'

One NFC scout said: 'It's sad watching him, even more sad how Denver treated one of the greatest. Arm looks shot, sad seeing him look like that, knowing how big a competitor he is.'

An AFC scout: 'Missed deep ball, routine throws were getting knocked down because he couldn't drive the ball, timing was off. Never looked like he could get in a routine. He couldn't dictate the game like normal because he just couldn't make the throws that needed to be made.'

And an NFC exec: 'Terrible overthrows and incompletions. He may be hurt.'

And when asked if they thought this was it, the NFC exec said, 'Just look at his last five weeks,' while the AFC exec opined that the Broncos know it is: 'My suspicions are we saw the spike in their rushing offense (over the second half of the season) to help him.'

"

Yes, Manning was hurt. Guess what? It isn't going to be a bit easier for Manning to stay healthy in 2015 than it was in 2014. Father Time spares no one. It didn't spare Johnny Unitas. Or Joe Montana. Or Brett Favre. Or even Elway, for that matter, who struggled with injuries of his own over his "swan song" season in 1998.

The end comes for everyone, and for every player who declines gradually there's another that plummets into the abyss.

Not to mention that we've already seen one NFL team decide that enough was enough with Peyton Manning.

And that all assumes that Manning wants to play again. Peyton Manning is one of the best to ever play the game at his position, and he knows his own body better than anyone. As sour as the taste from Sunday's loss may be, it's not like Manning has anything left to prove. He has his Super Bowl ring. He'll be a mortal-lock first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Maybe enough really is enough this time.

Even if Manning is amenable to the new coach, wants to return and the Broncos really do want him back, there are other problems that must be addressed. As Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier recently wrote, the Broncos will hit free agency with plenty of decisions to make:

"

Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker are free agents, not to mention a deep second tier of important players like Orlando Franklin, Brandon Marshall, Terrance "Pot Roast" Knighton and Jacob Tamme. Also, Von Miller is set to make $9.7 million in the option year of his rookie contract, then hit the market in 2016. The Broncos probably have about $25 million in cap space, but that's going to evaporate fast.

"

It will be difficult enough to keep additional holes on the roster from appearing, much less patch the ones they already have, especially on defense.

And if Manning hangs them up? There are steps back. Then there are leaps. Then there's going from Manning to Osweiler, who's a completely unknown quantity in the NFL.

Maybe Elway has a plan. In many respects he deserves the benefit of the doubt, having done a fine job in his NFL reincarnation as an executive.

However, it may just be that Elway let his competitiveness get the best of him this time. As Nicki Jhabvala of The Denver Post wrote, Elway admitted that only one thing is good enough in the Mile High City.

"There is no Plan B. There is only a Plan A, and that's to win a world championship."

The problem is that when the frustration and emotion of a stinging defeat and disappointing season rule the day, knee-jerk decisions are made. It's fair to wonder if that's what happened here, especially after Elway nuked the coaching staff less than 24 hours after the loss to the Colts.

And if there's one thing I've learned in my years of watching and covering the NFL, it's that knee-jerk decisions more often than not turn out to be bad ones.

It's certainly too soon to say that was the case here, but a team that a few months ago would have been described with adjectives like "powerhouse" is now drowning in uncertainty.

And it's hard to see how Elway and the Broncos can possibly get any closer to his singular goal.

Gary Davenport is an NFL Analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPManor.