What Can San Francisco 49ers Do to Clear More Salary-Cap Space in 2015 Offseason
As presently constituted, the San Francisco 49ers rank in the bottom three when it comes to salary-cap space in 2015.
Put another way, if the 49ers had their eyes set on a free agent of any kind, they would first have to clear over $10 million before even thinking about contract terms for the targeted player.
Sorry, folks—number crunching is the prevailing topic without any postseason action for the Red and Gold.
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According to Spotrac, the Internet-based sports contract resource, at $149,386,336, San Francisco sits $10,786,336 above the estimated NFL cap of $138.6 million. Official totals aren’t available at this time, but for all intents and purposes, only the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals exist further in the red.
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s $15.26 million represents the largest cap hit on the 49ers. Linebackers Aldon Smith ($9.75 million), Ahmad Brooks ($9.64 million), NaVorro Bowman ($8.4 million) and Patrick Willis ($8.26 million) complete the top five.
Another six players, including tight end Vernon Davis and wideout Stevie Johnson, count at least $6 million against next season’s league-wide threshold.
Now, clearing the $10 million and change is a significant enough issue all by itself.
But for 49ers’ CEO Jed York, general manager Trent Baalke and especially Paraag Marathe, the team’s president, chief contract negotiator and salary-cap manager, creating enough monetary flexibility for free-agent signings is another matter entirely.
The likes of Mike Iupati, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree and Chris Culliver, among many others, will each require new deals this offseason. Most will command a considerable raise as well, totaling anywhere from $12-20 million depending on who signs.
Marathe and Co. must also allocate the requisite $6-7 million for San Francisco’s draft class and other incoming rookies.
And until another report negates his alleged retirement plans, Justin Smith’s $6,436,667 won’t count against the cap. Those presumably deferred funds will instead go to the Niners’ first-year players.
So, with a combination of cuts, restructuring and/or trade(s), here is how the 49ers will clear cap space for all necessary signings in 2015.
Cut a Starter, 2 Backups and 4 Lower-Depth-Chart Assets
Once hailed as a masterly conceived and sustainable championship contender, the 49ers now find themselves needing to purge a considerable number of assets from their roster.
And that includes a key starter and pair of top backups.
Brooks’ cap hit of $9,648,750 this year ranks third-highest on the team. That’s simply an untenable figure for a former Pro Bowler who showed up out of shape and compiled fewer sacks, tackles and stops on the field.
Combine that with being benched in Week 14 for insubordination and a big-time rookie behind him, and Brooks quickly becomes expendable.
Fourth-round pick Aaron Lynch exploded onto the NFL scene. He totaled six sacks, including one in three straight games, 41 quarterback pressures, four pass breakups and a blocked punt.
The reputable statisticians at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) awarded him with positive grades in both run and pass defense, ranking him No. 20 overall along with teammate Aldon Smith.
Brooks, on the other hand, fell to 42nd out of 46 players graded at 3-4 outside linebacker.
At any rate, Smith and Lynch will serve as the 49ers' starters next year. Underrated free-agent Dan Skuta will also likely return on cap-friendly terms.
Even with $3 million worth of dead money on Brooks’ deal, San Francisco will still eliminate over $6 million from the cap.
Craig Dahl, meanwhile, will further exacerbate the team’s financial situation if retained for 2015. His cap hit of $1,933,334 is just too much for a backup safety.
Despite his valuable role behind the injured Eric Reid in Week 17, Dahl’s negative scores in all defensive metrics from PFF deem him as too costly and far too unproductive.
The 49ers will save $1.7 million ($233,334 of dead money) by cutting the eight-year pro.
Additionally, San Francisco must also part ways with right tackle Jonathan Martin, cornerbacks Marcus Cromartie and Leon McFadden, tight end Asante Cleveland and receiver Chuck Jacobs.
The disaster that was Martin and his six sacks allowed was a failed experiment from the start. He couldn’t remotely produce anywhere near Anthony Davis’ level, or even that of a respectable backup, for that matter.
Martin’s bottom-25 ranking and $1,042,000 cap hit will seal his offseason exit.
Releasing those lower depth-chart corners and pass-catchers will free up another $1.6 million from the Niners’ books.
The return of Vance McDonald, Derek Carrier and redshirt rookies Kenneth Acker and Keith Reaser will provide San Francisco with sufficient reinforcements moving forward.
Restructure Smith, Johnson, Brock, Dorsey
Having cleared roughly $11 million thus far, how will the 49ers acquire the additional funds?
Receiver Stevie Johnson, cornerback Tramaine Brock and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey all have multiyear deals that extend until at least 2017. All three missed significant action as well, if not the entire season.
Restructuring their 2015 cap figures by deferring guaranteed money to later years will do wonders for the Niners’ problematic finances. Marathe can attract these players with incentive-based salaries contingent on playing time and production down the line.
Doing so will take another $3.3 million worth of pressure off the cap. Each one could certainly accept the $1 million-plus salary cut considering they combined for a grand total of 389 snaps in 2014.
As for Aldon Smith, missing half of last season due to suspension would give San Francisco the moral high ground to restructure his deal. Marathe could defer $2.7 million from his $9.7 million cap hit across a performance-based contract extension.
Smith has proved enough off the field to earn additional years. He’ll just need to produce a bit more on it for the corresponding monetary rewards.
OK, so now that the 49ers have removed themselves from the $10.7 million hole and added another $6 million-plus for future contracts, where will the rest come from?
Trade Vernon Davis, Pay the Rest
Based on the raging dichotomy of all-world talent and league-worst statistics, Vernon Davis registered one of the most disappointing seasons in NFL history.
Fresh off a Pro Bowl campaign in which he ranked eighth in yards per catch (16.3) and third with 13 touchdown receptions, gridiron hyperbole just doesn’t apply here.
Davis set career-lows with 245 yards receiving and a measly 9.4-yard average. Scoring not a single touchdown after notching two in Week 1 matched a personal low as well.
Pro Football Focus dropped him from No. 6 overall last year to just five spots away from dead last in 2014. His No. 62 ranking included the third-most drops at his position (six) and negative scores as both a pass-catcher and run-blocker.
In a season where his own physical setbacks, mental fallouts and off-field “brand” issues combined with a generally chaotic and ineffective 49ers offense, Davis represented the worst of the worst.
He held out before the season began, disappeared as quickly as he returned and now brings an unsightly $7.08 million cap hit in 2015.
But in a league where talent owns a winning record over intangibles, Davis’ stock still holds tremendous value.
A quality, yet deficient Cleveland Browns squad could use Davis as an integral pass-catcher for the formative years of quarterback Johnny Manziel. And on the other end of the spectrum, the perennially winning New England Patriots and veteran Tom Brady could just as easily recreate another lethal tight-end duo with Davis and Rob Gronkowski.
These teams—and many in between—would gladly absorb the substantial cap hit, even if it meant only having Davis on a one-year rental.
Trent Baalke must reenter the picture and take control for the 49ers. He must offload Davis’ salary and accept whichever package of draft picks an opposing general manager offers in return.
Sacrificing one asset for the benefit of many will pay off in both cap maneuverability and gridiron dividends.
Possessing upward of $13 million will foster long-term deals and positional security from the backfield to the secondary. Add in a potential increase in the 2015 cap and other crafty dealings by Baalke, and the 49ers’ future suddenly seems a whole lot brighter.
Said future could include Iupati, Gore and Culliver or Crabtree, Gore and cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Chris Cook. It could even entail a combination that features outside free agents, with linebacker Dan Skuta and defensive end Tony Jerod Eddie on team-friendly deals.
Regardless of whom Baalke targets, how Marathe negotiates and why York authorizes, the 49ers will have the necessary resources at their disposal.
They will have the fiscal and personnel capital to reclaim their contender status among the league’s elite.
Yet knowing their track record of late—see: failed offensive draft picks, preseason contract holdouts, release of head coach Jim Harbaugh—we would only recommend hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
Baalke, Marathe, York—the Niners faithful are watching. Don’t let them down…again.
All team and player statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference unless otherwise noted. All contract information courtesy of Spotrac. Advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16
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