Ravens vs. Patriots: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

The previous four months have exhibited the upside of the championship-or-bust mentality from the New England Patriots.  As they did for the fifth straight season, the Pats cruised to an AFC East title and first-round bye, spending the first weekend of January lounging and recovering.

However, beginning on Saturday, January will represent the downside of such high expectations.  Nine straight winters have resulted in heartbreak around Foxborough, and considering that this may be New England's most well-rounded squad since the 2007 record-breakers, anything short of a fourth Lombardi Trophy will qualify as an unmitigated disappointment.

As strong and healthy as the Patriots appear, their projected postseason road looks extremely difficult.  Drawing the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round may have been the worst-case scenario from the opening playoff weekend, as the Ravens' personnel appear well-equipped to prod at New England's most concerning weaknesses.  Coupled with Baltimore's past postseason triumphs at Gillette Stadium, it's clear the Patriots will need to rebound from a relatively lackluster final month of the regular season to advance.

Still, let's not overstate the situation too much, as this is a Patriots team whose combination of health, talent and home-field advantage gives them the inside track to the Super Bowl.  With that in mind, let's take a look at the mainstream perception of the Pats' short- and long-term prospects in the lead-up to their first playoff game in 2015.

Bill Barnwell: Brady Contract About Flexibility

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During the bye, the Pats took care of one small housekeeping detail that could potentially become monumental down the line.  Tom Brady's recent contract restructuring doesn't change anything about the earning potential or cap-hit values over the remaining three years on his deal, as it simply generates an extra $24 million cash flow for the Patriots (head over to PatsCap.com for a detailed explanation of the nuances).

From both Brady's and the team's perspective, the motive for this minor reshuffling is curious.  Brady loses up-front guaranteed money, something most 37-year-old NFL players wouldn't trade away, while the deep-pocketed Robert Kraft gets relative pocket change.  Given the lack of financial incentive, Grantland's Bill Barnwell has opined that the deal simply provides an avenue for both sides to mutually part if the time comes:

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But this isn’t a deal about the most likely outcome, nor is it one about selflessly giving away money to try to make a better football team. It’s about two parties who likely both found themselves in need of flexibility. The Patriots want to be able to move on from Brady if he’s not up to snuff. And Brady surely wants to be able to choose where and when he goes out of football. Monday’s renegotiation made both those tasks far easier.

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Indeed, under the previous terms, Brady was essentially married to the Pats through 2017, as they could not trade or release him without owing untenable hits in dead money.  Now, it's truly a year-to-year pact, as the Pats can move on with minimal cap repercussions, while Brady would avoid the Logan Mankins or Richard Seymour treatment in getting traded to a perennial loser.

Ultimately, this is probably much ado about nothing.  It's not hard to envision Brady playing effectively enough to justify his friendly cap numbers through 2017, while the extra $24 million isn't necessarily going to make a big difference in how much signing bonus cash the Pats could offer to, say, Darrelle Revis or Devin McCourty in free agency.  However, this tucks in some loose ends and, in doing so, prepares both Brady and the Patriots to emerge unscathed if the worst-case scenario does come to fruition.

Mike Sando: Patriots a "90s-40s" Team

ESPN Insider Mike Sando has always brought a unique blend of reporting, scouting and statistical analysis to his writing, and his postseason preview provided a unique take on the 12-team field.  Using Expected Points Added (EPA), Sando (subscription required) illustrated each playoff team's percentiles in offensive and defensive EPA, while also supplying some historical comparisons for reference. 

By his numbers, the Patriots were in the 90.9 percentile offensively and the 46.0 percentile defensively:

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The Patriots' profile matches up with the 2012 Packers in particular. That Green Bay team's season ended when the Packers ran up against a 49ers team that was in the 80th percentile on both sides of the ball. Four other AFC playoff teams have offenses in the 80th or 90th percentile, but none has a defense higher than the 50s. That bodes well for New England, but if the Patriots face Seattle in the Super Bowl, the odds shorten.

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Sando also compares the Patriots to this year's Packers squad and the 2009 San Diego Chargers, who earned the No. 2 seed but lost to the feisty New York Jets in the divisional round.  None of New England's closest siblings won the Super Bowl; excluding this year's Green Bay team, all have lost in the divisional round or earlier.

Other advanced metrics are a little kinder to the Patriots.  Based on New England's offensive and defensive ratings, here's a look at how the Patriots would shape up based on rankings metrics from Football Outsiders (DVOA), Advanced Football Analytics (Gross Win Probability, or GWP) and Pro-Football-Reference (Simple Rating System, or SRS):

Metric	O Rank	D Rank	Implied Percentile
DVOA	6	11	80s-60s
GWP	8	14	70s-50s
SRS	3	6	90s-80s

That "implied percentile" isn't totally accurate—Sando is using years of data, while we're looking only at 2014.  Nevertheless, none of these metrics are meant to represent the be-all-end-all, and they portray differing views of New England's relative team strength, though all suggest that the Patriots are an offensively oriented squad.

Pete Prisco: Brady to Exploit Ravens DBs

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As we'll delve into throughout the week, Baltimore's front seven has all the ingredients to cook up trouble for the Patriots offense.  However, if the Pats can battle to a draw in the trenches, CBS Sports' Pete Prisco believes that Tom Brady should exploit a dilapidated Ravens secondary and provide New England the edge:

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The Ravens know what it takes to win in Foxborough: Big plays in the passing game and a pass rush that rattles Tom Brady.

My concern this year is the secondary. It's a group that played better Saturday against the Steelers, but still has to be concerning against Brady. The Ravens were 24th in passing yards against this season. That's not a good stat against Brady, even if they've had success against him in the past.

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In Baltimore's two previous playoff wins at Foxborough, the Ravens boasted a much stronger pass defense.  Whereas they ranked 10th and fifth in opponents' yards per pass attempt in 2012 and 2009, respectively, the 2014 rendition ranks 15th.  The Ravens weren't as impressive by DVOA, ranking 13th in 2012 and seventh in 2009, but that's still better than their 15th-ranked pass D this year.

Historically, though, that hasn't made a difference in New England's postseason fate.  Last year's Denver Broncos ranked 14th in opponents yards per attempt and 21st in DVOA, while the 2011 New York Giants (who beat the Pats in Super Bowl XLVI) ranked 15th and 19th, respectively, in the aforementioned stats.

The common denominator among all those teams was a ferocious pass rush that nullified whatever advantages the Patriots may have held along the perimeter.  The Ravens possess the personnel to replicate that time-tested formula, but if they can't pressure Brady, a juicy matchup awaits in the secondary.

Aaron Schatz: Secondary Biggest Plus, O-Line Biggest Minus

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The Pats OL is going to have MASSIVE problems with this Ravens pass rush... on other hand, the Pats secondary is LIGHT YEARS ahead of PIT's.

— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) January 4, 2015"

From a Patriots perspective, the biggest storyline surrounding the divisional round game is how the offensive line will protect Tom Brady against Baltimore's fearsome pass rush.  Sub-package rushers Elvis Dumervil and Pernell McPhee ranked fifth and second, respectively, in pass-rushing productivity among 3-4 outside linebackers, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Coupled with a stout two-gapping defensive line, it's clear that the Patriots line will face its toughest challenge in quite some time.  Stylistically, the San Diego Chargers and Green Bay Packers are probably the most similar front sevens the Pats have played this year.  Though the Chargers and Packers combined for just two sacks, they also accrued 11 quarterback hits, putting fairly consistent pressure on Brady.

Baltimore's pass-rushing talent level is better than either the Packers or Chargers, which bodes ominously for the Pats.  However, Schatz also notes that the Patriots' edge in the secondary could nullify whatever advantage the Ravens compile in the trenches.  In seven games against top-15 DVOA defenses, the Ravens averaged 21.0 points per game, but much of that came in a 38-point outing against the Carolina Panthers.

Since that slipshod September start, the Patriots have allowed 6.9 yards per attempt, roughly equivalent to what Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith posted the entire season.  The Ravens don't possess the depth or schematic creativity to create mismatches against New England's secondary personnel, which means that Joe Flacco will have a Herculean task ahead if the Ravens running game continues to struggle.

Brian Billick: Flacco Better Than Brady?

USA TODAY Sports

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The #Ravens can beat the #Patriots because the salient facts suggest that Joe Flacco is better than Tom Brady: http://t.co/pHalW3xmZ9

— Brian Billick (@CoachBillick) January 7, 2015"

Since 2001, the Patriots have almost always held the edge at the game's most important position.  But Joe Flacco has statistically outplayed Tom Brady in each of the past three postseason meetings between Baltimore and New England, reversing that typically foregone upper hand.

Billick uses recent playoff history to support his argument, noting that Flacco has outperformed Brady over a relatively robust 10-game sample size.  There's nothing factually incorrect with his stance; indeed, it's not difficult to argue that the Patriots offense has underwhelmed in recent postseason defeats.

But correlation doesn't equal causation, as any high-school statistics class will inform you, which makes Billick's leap curious at best.  Ed Reed and Antwaun Molden have been replaced by the likes of Darian Stewart and Darrelle Revis, so the statistical history of past Ravens-Patriots meetings is virtually irrelevant.  Of the 22 defensive starters from the 2012 AFC Championship Game, only five remain.

Moreover, based on DVOA, the Pats faced the eighth-toughest defensive schedule, while the Ravens played the second-easiest.  Yet Flacco still trailed Brady in virtually every rate and cumulative passing statistic.  Brady also outranked Flacco in DVOA and Expected Points Added (EPA).  Unless Flacco gets bonus points for his hidden acting chops, there is no metric that portrays him as a superior quarterback to Brady.

Comparing quarterbacks has always been a silly exercise, as they don't face off directly.  Still, when factoring in conventional stats, advanced metrics and opponent adjustments, Brady has been superior to Flacco in every facet this season.  That advantage may or may not hold for the Patriots on Saturday, but it would be incorrect to argue that New England didn't hold the quarterback edge headed into the game.