Karl Towns or Jahlil Okafor: Which Big Should New York Knicks Covet More?
For the better part of the last 15 years, futility is a trend that the New York Knicks have become far too acquainted with. But what sets them aside from other chronic cellar-dwellers is how rarely their struggles ever pay off with tangible future rewards—namely in the form of draft picks.
At 5-31, the Knicks are on pace for a miserable 11-win season, though the Philadelphia 76ers remain the worst team in the NBA by a few percentage points. They'll have as many as 12 players come off the books on July 1, leaving Phil Jackson with several directions to turn with what will be one of the first picks—if not the first—in the draft.
With one of the top three picks, the Knicks would have a chance to solidify the most difficult position to fill for years to come with the addition of centers Jahlil Okafor or Karl Towns. The two freshman prospects are already garnering incredible hype, but there may be a scenario where Jackson's front office will need to decide between the two.
New York has the Stepien Rule to thank this summer: The league bars teams from trading first-rounders in back-to-back years, and the Knicks weren't allowed to deal away this year's pick in any deal.
So, looking ahead to next season's rookie class, it's safe to say the Knicks timed their worst-ever start about as well as possible.
Duke's Okafor has caught on with the mainstream media as the consensus No. 1, but could the Knicks possibly think otherwise?
Considering Okafor's ridiculous stat line under coach Mike Krzyzewski, going with the Duke product would seem to be a no-brainer. Over 13 games, the 6'11", 270-pounder has averaged 19.5 points and 8.7 rebounds a night. In an interview with the New York Post's Marc Berman, ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla compared Okafor's game to Tim Duncan.
"Fran Fraschilla, an ESPN college basketball analyst, says the 6-foot-11 Okafor may just be worth the hype.
“I think so,’’ Franschilla told The Post. “At worst, you’re getting a young Al Jefferson — an 18 and 10 guy. At best, Tim Duncan. He’s got potential to be a franchise player. Odds are it’s somewhere in between.’’
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Scoring is clearly Okafor's calling card, and his efficiency alone may be enough to make him the first overall pick this summer. He rarely ventures out of the paint with the ball, but he's shot over 68 percent from the field this season, leaving the 19-year-old with little reason to change his approach.
Particularly in Derek Fisher's triangle, a dominant scorer in the post would instantly change the makeup of the team's offense. Just imagine every Cole Aldrich sweeping hook shot becoming an Okafor post-up look.
There are some concerns regarding Coach K's latest prized possession, though.
There are questions as to how Okafor's lack of athleticism could hurt his upside, and he isn't viewed as a difference-maker on the defensive end. Particularly with the Knicks, who chose to build the franchise around Carmelo Anthony—generally a defensive minus in the frontcourt—last summer, slotting in a center who isn't adding anything defensively comes with its risks.
Though Towns isn't as offensively polished as Okafor—no 19-year-old center in recent memory has ever been—he's just as intriguing, namely because of his upside in the areas Okafor lacks.
The 6'11", 250-pound prospect isn't as much of a post-up scorer as he is a perimeter threat, though his overall game is still evolving, as his body has improved tremendously over recent years—less like Okafor, who is much closer to a finished product.
Despite lacking a true post game, Towns is just as perfect a fit in the triangle as Okafor would be, possibly even more so. He makes terrific reads as a passer and has prototypical shooting form with range that extends to the three-point line.
Towns is part of a big-man platoon under John Calipari this season that includes fellow draft prospects Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson, so his per-game numbers have been scaled back a bit. He's currently going for 8.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks a night for the Wildcats over 19.5 minutes per game, which normalizes to 17 points, 14 boards and five blocks per 40 minutes.
The 19-year-old brings elite rebounding to the table and projects to be something the Knicks have lacked for years: a two-way player. The Kentucky defense is currently first in the NCAA in defensive efficiency, allowing only 73.3 points per 100 possessions, but improves to a staggering 66.5 when Towns is on the floor, according to Sports-Reference.
Last month, Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman took a deeper look into the differences between the two in this area.
"Quite frankly, it's Okafor's defensive struggles that have stood out more than Towns' defensive prowess.
Okafor doesn't elevate as effortlessly to begin with, but his questionable help-defense IQ and energy have also been exposed at times this year.
Take a look at Okafor trying—or not trying—to defend ball screens on the perimeter on two separate plays against Wisconsin. He's the statue-looking fella standing flat-footed in the middle of the floor.
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According to Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears, Towns wears a size 20 shoe and could grow to be 7'3" before the prime of his career, which falls in line with the rest of Towns' traits in comparison to his Duke counterpart. He has a chance to be something very special, but there will be a necessary development period that could last a few seasons before we see how great the New Jersey native can be.
If New York has a choice between the two on June 25, this will likely be the deciding factor, and it could make or break the team's chances in the immediate future.
With Anthony clearly the team's centerpiece and entering his 31-year-old season in 2015-16, Jackson's regime could certainly be inclined to opt for Okafor's NBA-ready offensive impact. He may not be the prototypical fit for an Anthony-led unit, but coming off this historically bad season, the Knicks will need as many selling points to potential free agents as possible—and make no mistake, Okafor is a major one.
But Towns' long-term potential and all-around versatility can't be overlooked. There's little chance that he can be responsible for the immediate impact that Okafor likely will, but given the right time and environment to grow, some agree that Towns could be the big man with the highest ceiling in this year's draft. Whether that ceiling is reached during Anthony's prime, though, is unknown.
For a franchise that's lacked stability since Patrick Ewing departed over a decade ago, waiting around for Towns could have the biggest payoff.
What isn't up for any debate is that the Knicks will be in a much better position after draft day than they are today. If the miserable nightmare that is their 2014-15 season results in Okafor or Towns wearing blue and orange later this year, consider it one worth sleeping through.
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