1 Area Every 2015 NBA Title Contender Must Upgrade for the New Year
Almost everyone breaks the resolutions he or she makes for the new year. It's basically human nature to do so. But these contending teams have to stick to their guns and actually improve their most problematic areas in order to win a championship.
The NBA's title landscape is wide-open right now, so every advantage is certainly going to be highly beneficial in the pursuit of the Larry O'Brien Trophy. In order to find one, these squads not only have to figure out the area they must upgrade, but they also have to fix the problem.
For some teams, that's not too difficult. For others, it's easier said than done.
For all of them, it's necessary.
In this article, we're being rather generous with our definition of contention. Anyone with a distinct shot at making it to the NBA Finals qualifies here, which opens the door for plenty of teams in the East that couldn't necessarily hang with the seven most powerful squads in the tougher half of the Association.
Atlanta Hawks: Crashing Offensive Glass
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The Atlanta Hawks have been quite effective in so many areas during the 2014-15 season. In fact, they've been good enough that it's time we start considering them legitimate contenders who will be around for quite some time.
But they have one glaring weakness, and that's a complete inability to crash the offensive boards and create second-chance opportunities. Thus far, the Hawks are corralling only 20.8 percent of their misses, and that's the No. 30 mark in the Association. The Orlando Magic are the only other team that's been close to being this poor at this particular facet of the game, and it's also worth noting how Atlanta stacks up historically.
The Hawks have an adjusted offensive rebounding percentage of 82.53, indicating that they've been nearly 20 percent worse than the league-average percentage during the 2014-15 campaign. My database shows that since the NBA began tracking the Four Factors in 1974, only 15 teams have ever been worse.
Since the 2013-14 Hawks are one of the 15, this is likely part of Mike Budenholzer's coaching style—trading second-chance points for an increased ability to get back in transition and prevent easy buckets. But this is taking that strategy to an extreme, and it's hindering a three-happy team from getting even more good attempts up.
After all, open threes are usually a nice byproduct of creating second-chance opportunities.
Chicago Bulls: Forcing Turnovers
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Uncharacteristically for a Tom Thibodeau squad, the Chicago Bulls have actually struggled a bit on the defensive end of the floor. They're just outside of the top 10 in defensive rating, coming in at No. 11 while allowing 104.5 points per 100 possessions.
And the primary culprit? The Bulls are simply allowing their opponents to rack up too many shooting opportunities. They're great at contesting shots and forcing the opposition into difficult looks. They rarely foul. However, they're only mediocre on the defensive glass and have struggled immensely to force turnovers.
Only the Charlotte Hornets and Indiana Pacers have fewer steals this season, but Chicago hasn't even been able to cause many unforced errors. Their opponents' turnover percentage of 11.0 is dead-last in the league, slightly better than the similarly awful mark posted by the Sacramento Kings.
Amazingly, they're getting worse in this area too. During December, the Bulls forced turnovers on just 9.3 percent of their opponents' possessions.
The rim protection is fantastic, especially with a resurgent Pau Gasol protecting the paint. Now, it's time for the wing players to take more chances.
Gambles can be smart after all.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Rim Protection
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This one basically goes without saying.
"Heading into the 2014-15 season, depth at the power forward and center positions was a concern for the Cleveland Cavaliers," Greg Swartz wrote for Bleacher Report in late December. "After recent events, that concern should now become a borderline panic."
That recent event was losing starting center Anderson Varejao for the season with a ruptured Achilles. It's not as though the floppy-haired center was particularly adept at swatting away shots near the basket, but the remaining players on the roster are even worse at protecting the rim.
According to NBA.com's SportVU data, opponents are shooting 56.9 percent at the rim against the Cavaliers, and that's rather easily the worst mark in the league. The Minnesota Timberwolves (55.5 percent) are the next worse, but that 1.4 percent gap is as large as the difference between the Wolves (No. 29) and the Los Angeles Clippers (No. 23).
David Blatt's willingness to play Kevin Love at center is not going to work. Nor is using Tristan Thompson there, and the rest of the options aren't exactly that much better.
A personnel change is needed in order for the Cavs to even justify earning a featured spot in this article, one that's more speculative than deserved at this point in the 2014-15 campaign.
Dallas Mavericks: Defense, Defense, Defense (Without Sacrificing Offense)
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The Dallas Mavericks have trouble stopping nosebleeds. Typically, they can outscore their opponents all the same, thanks to a historically excellent offense, but it would be rather nice—especially come playoff time—to be able to compete on both ends of the floor.
Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and the rest of the Mavs have put together a 114.5 offensive rating, one that trails only the red-hot Toronto Raptors. But their defensive rating of 107.2 puts them just outside the top 20 in the Association.
While Dallas does force plenty of turnovers, it has an inordinate amount of trouble on the defensive glass, allows the opposition to shoot a high percentage and sends the other team to the stripe with too much frequency.
"But wait," you might say. "They just added Rajon Rondo, so everything is going to get better."
Well, not necessarily.
Point guard defense only matters so much, and the Mavericks' defensive rating of 103.5 since the former Boston Celtic joined the club hasn't been enough to offset the offensive decline. Before Rondo came to Dallas, the Mavericks were outscoring their opponents by 7.8 points per 100 possessions. But with him on the roster, that number has fallen to an even five, and there's still no telling what happens if Tyson Chandler goes down with no insurance policy behind him.
Golden State Warriors: Andrew Bogut's Health
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It's pretty tough to upgrade someone's health, but the Golden State Warriors have to find a way to keep Andrew Bogut on the court.
"If Bogut isn't ready for the playoffs, the championship aspirations are over," Bruce Jenkins writes for the San Francisco Chronicle, and that's really not an exaggeration. The defense relies on his rim-protecting abilities, and he's undeniably crucial to its identity, especially since he was having such a fantastic season before his knee trouble popped up.
"We gotta scrap cuz' obviously [Bogut's] not out there to protect the rim, so you're not able to cut the ball off or get deflections, you know, close off lanes," Curry said to ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss. "The paint's kind of open so you want to make sure guards and wings put up a good line of defense and try to stop the first attacks."
The big man's absence changes everything.
The Warriors allow 8.3 more points per 100 possessions when he's not on the court, and my FATS projections (full explanation here) paint a similarly scary picture.
When Bogut is on the floor, the Warriors play as though they're a 62-win team, comparing most favorably to the title-winning 2007-08 Boston Celtics. But when he takes a seat, whether due to a rotational substitution or an injury like the one he's still dealing with, the Dubs suddenly become a 59-win squad.
Those three wins may not make him as valuable as someone like Stephen Curry, but they're important ones in the stacked and packed Western Conference, where every lost outing can be the difference between a top seed and something far less advantageous.
Houston Rockets: Caring for the Ball
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Though the Houston Rockets have been quite good on the defensive end during the 2014-15 campaign, they're still allowing a bunch of easy points. Per Team Rankings, the Rockets are giving up 15.5 points on fast breaks during the average contest. That's a mark that beats out only the Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks.
Given that we're talking about defense, that's definitely not a trio of teams you want to be closely associated with.
The issue is simple: turnovers.
Houston has coughed the ball up on 15.6 percent of its possessions thus far, putting it ahead of just the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks. Now that we're talking about offense, that's again a pair of teams you don't really want to be grouped together with.
Displaying more care for the ball is of paramount importance for this team, particularly because there are so many potent options on the roster who can only score when they're actually able to get shots up.
Los Angeles Clippers: Defensive Effort
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"We've shown we can be very good defensively, we just pick and choose to do that," Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told NBC Sports' Kurt Helin. "We played Golden State the other night (Christmas) and our defense looked as good as anybody in the league. ...I think we're going to be a really good defensive team at the end of the day."
But for that to happen, the Clippers can't pick their spots. They need to exert effort at all times, particularly if they hope to earn a top seed in the brutal Western Conference. Even against lackluster opponents, they have to be on their games.
"Just a commitment, effort," Matt Barnes explained to Helin when asked how the team could change the inconsistency that plagued it during a late-December game against the Utah Jazz, one in which the Clippers had to buckle down in the fourth quarter after putrid defensive performances in the middle periods. "Not to make any excuses but we've been on a hell of a schedule lately, playing every other day for like a month."
This season, the Clippers are heading into their final game of 2014 as a team that allows 106.8 points per 100 possessions, a mark that puts them at No. 18 on the defensive rating leaderboard. Last year, they finished at 104.8 and No. 9 respectively.
The pieces are in place, but the mental game has yet to catch up.
Memphis Grizzlies: Perimeter Shooting
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New year, same problem.
The Memphis Grizzlies' core is identical this season, featuring Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph and Tony Allen as well as a distinct defensive identity. And while Gasol is playing at ridiculous levels and Conley has improved significantly, the ceiling is still lowered by the team's lack of offensive versatility.
Basically, Memphis can't space the court.
Only the Sacramento Kings and Minnesota Timberwolves have made fewer triples in 2014-15. Those two teams and the Washington Wizards are the only three who have attempted fewer shots from beyond the arc. And to top it off, the Grizz are shooting just 35.8 percent from downtown, which puts them right in the middle of the pack.
To be fair, the Memphis offense has actually been quite good to the point that this feels a bit like nitpicking. But when play slows down during the playoffs and defenses generally get even tougher, it's important to showcase a bit of diversity in your scoring habits.
Portland Trail Blazers: Depth
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Whether by developing the young talents who spend a lot of time on the pine or trading for more depth, the Portland Trail Blazers must find a way to survive when their starters either need breathers or go down with injuries.
Rip City has withstood Robin Lopez's broken hand thus far, but it's more thinned out than ever before.
According to HoopsStats.com, the Blazers have used some of the least bench minutes of any team in the league, coming in at No. 25. And despite the typical tradeoff between volume and effectiveness that exists in the NBA, Portland's backups rank No. 20 offensive efficiency. At least they've been respectable on the other end, checking in with the No. 12 defensive efficiency thus far.
That's not exactly a good sign.
Last season, the depthless Blazers wore out at the end of the year. And while they knocked off the Houston Rockets in the first round of the playoffs, they were gassed during their next matchup.
As they say, those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it.
San Antonio Spurs: A Sense of Urgency
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As David Kenyon writes for Bleacher Report, December has been rough for the San Antonio Spurs, but there's a light at the end of this month-long tunnel:
"The franchise can officially finish the final month of the year no better than 9-9, but January returns San Antonio to nonconference action. Scattered in the six upcoming games against the East, the Spurs should find a few breaks against lower-tier NBA teams.
But as a Dec. 12 meeting with the Los Angeles Lakers showed, the defending NBA champions must take every opponent seriously, whether in the East or West.
"
At times, it's seemed as though this team has lacked motivation. It's an issue that Gregg Popovich saw coming before the season, and the coaching sage isn't often wrong. Per Buck Harvey of the San Antonio Express-News:
"A year ago, even as he said he was tormented by Game 6, Popovich secretly loved that the disappointment could be used as fuel. So facing the opposite problem now, is he concerned?
'I'm worried for one reason,' he said. 'They are human beings. They are going to feel satisfied.'
"
This is a team full of veterans that's starting to get healthier, though Kawhi Leonard is still out. The myriad injuries do serve as a massive caveat here, but the Spurs have still been remarkably disengaged at times.
All the same, it's largely the same bunch that put on an absolute clinic against the Miami Heat in the 2014 NBA Finals. Even though there have been distinct on-court flaws throughout this opening portion of the follow-up season, they're all fixable.
We've learned not to doubt the Spurs, after all.
But this motivation or lack thereof is potentially problematic. Popovich is the master of going on a late-season run, and he may have to completely alter the mentality of his troops to start piling up consecutive wins once more.
Toronto Raptors: Less Reliance on Kyle Lowry
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Kyle Lowry has unquestionably been an MVP candidate during the 2014-15 season, carrying his team while DeMar DeRozan rehabs and leading the Toronto Raptors to the top record in the Eastern Conference. He might not receive enough recognition for his exploits, but don't let a lack of publicity trump the work he's done on the court.
The point guard has maintained his level of performance all season, though there was a rough patch in the middle of December. But how long can he be tasked with carrying this squad on both ends of the court?
Though he's been incredible thus far, such a huge uptick in involvement can often lead to some wear and tear at the end of the season, especially when you play like a bowling ball. Lowry's 26.8 usage rate is the highest mark of his career, leaving last year's then-career-high 22.9 in the dust.
And when games are close, the ball ends up in his hands with even more frequency. During clutch situations, which NBA.com calls the last five minutes of games separated by five points or less, his usage rate skyrockets to 40.8. That trails only Kobe Bryant (49.6), James Harden (44.8) and Carmelo Anthony (41.6).
It's worked so far, but how long can he last with such a severe jump in responsibility?
Washington Wizards: Free Throws of All Kinds
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On offense, the Washington Wizards are quite poor at getting to the charity stripe and connecting. But when they're playing defense, they allow the opposition to rack up freebies.
That's not exactly a good combination.
Thus far, the Wizards rank No. 23 in free throws made per field-goal attempt, which is due both to them getting to the line without much frequency and simultaneously posting one of the league's bottom-10 free-throw percentages. Meanwhile, they come in at No. 26 in opponents' free throws made per field-goal attempt, better than only the New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets.
Lest we forget, the Lakers and Nuggets both play under coaches who actually want them fouling to set an early tone, even though there's no statistical evidence that doing so is a beneficial strategy. If anything, it hurts the defensive efforts.
This may seem relatively inconsequential, but the Wizards have been quite good and don't have that many glaring flaws. Shoring up this issue could very well push them right to the top of the Eastern Conference.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Dec. 31's games.
